Another Look at the Coming Dollar Collapse

Excellent and easily readable article by Greg Hunter’s of USAWatchdog.
Defining conditions in Europe and how the collapse of the dollar and therefore rise of Gold will occur.

At the beginning of this month, the G20 met in France to try to find a way to solve the European sovereign debt crisis. It ended with world leaders in disarray over a way to come up with a solution. At first blush, it appears that nothing of any importance came of the meeting of the 20 leading economies of the world, but that is not the case. It was widely reported the G20 came up with the idea that Germany might put up its gold reserves to back a bailout fund called the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF. Of course, Germany , with its more than 3,400 tonnes of gold (number 2 in the world), quickly shot that idea down. End of story? Quite the contrary–the gold story is just beginning to get interesting.

You see, the G20 did something accidentally that was very important, and that was confirm that gold has a place in the monetary system, especially in times of extreme turmoil. Why doesn’t the EU use sovereign bonds to back the EFSF? They are considered a store of value and are held as reserves in many European banks. The simple answer is the world is waking up to the fact that debt can’t back up debt. Europe finds itself in a tough spot, and the leaders there know it. Reuters reported Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “Europe is in one of its toughest, perhaps the toughest hour since World War Two,” she told her Christian Democrats, saying she feared Europe would fail if the euro failed and vowing to do anything to stop this from happening.” Well, anything but put Germany ’s gold up as collateral. Maybe Chancellor Merkel will be the next leader to exit the European stage? Who knows, but what I do know is that gold is once again going to become an important part of the world monetary system.

UrbanMan's comment: By the virtue of Gold increasing in value, so will Silver. Currently the ratio of Gold and Silver, $1,800 and $34 an ounce respectively, is at an approx ratio of 1:53. That ratio is expected to decrease as the historic Gold to Silver ratio is much narrow than that, so the correction will bring the value of Silver much higher as well.

In a new book called “Currency Wars,” Wall Street insider Jim Rickards examines how countries try to get out of financial trouble by devaluing their currencies. Rickards says, “Today, as yesterday, countries are attempting to devalue their way out of trouble. Following the strategy of beggar-thy- neighbor, the U.S. , Europe, China and Japan all want to weaken their currencies. The flaw in the tactic should be clear. “Not everyone could cheapen at once,” Rickards writes. “The circle still could not be squared.” Rickards predicts the U.S. dollar’s future is not bright, and if there were a “catastrophic collapse of investor confidence,” the dollar’s buying power could suffer suddenly and dramatically in a global sell off.

Gold would be the big beneficiary if the dollar declined, and Rickards’ top price for gold per ounce is–wait for it–$44,552! That price is the absolute highest possibility. Rickards and others predict that in the next few years, America will go back on some sort of gold standard. Meaning, the dollar will be backed by gold, but Rickards has stated on many occasions that there probably will not be a100% gold backed U.S. dollar. Instead, Rickards contends it will be more in the neighborhood of 40%. If that is the case, then gold would be $17,821 per ounce using Rickards numbers. It appears gold prices are going much higher.

UrbanMan's comment: Again, silver will increase as well and by virtue of it's lower cost to procure, it remains not only the poorer man's precious metal for SHTF, but an easier bought one as well.

The main factor in determining gold price is money printing, and one of the biggest currency creators on the planet is the Federal Reserve. It created enormous amounts of money in the wake of the 2008 meltdown, and it looks like it is getting ready to unleash mountains of even more cash to stop the impending Euro-land meltdown. This week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated the central bank would take action if the EU sovereign debt crisis turns chaotic. According to a Wall Street Journal report, “Bullard said that if overseas events worsened significantly, the Fed could respond, saying “the Fed can re-open some of the liquidity facilities that were used during 2008-2009″ to reduce related market disruptions. “It will be fairly clear if some sort of crisis occurs in financial market that causes trust to break down,” it would then be time for the Fed to take action to alleviate the market tumult, he said.” It looks to me the Fed will be forced to print money to stop another financial meltdown. It is only a matter of time, and time appears short.

UrbanMan's comment: Something we hope never happens but refuse to let hope override good common sense in prepping. When the currency printing press start working over time the price of goods goes up because the dollar becomes devalued. Your pay checks will remain the same.....buying less and less until the one million a year that goes into poverty, becomes 15 million or more. Anarchy will reign when the true poverty level, currently at around 45 million hits 1/3 of the population or around 100 million.

Renowned economist Martin Armstrong says, “What this is really about is it’s the entire Western civilization that’s starting to crumble.” In an interview Monday on King World News, Armstrong warned, “Everything is falling apart and the politicians will not address it because it means having to change the system and that’s what they do not want to do. The real big money that I speak to, they are really starting to look beyond Italy , Greece , Spain and Portugal . They are starting to look at France and Germany .” Armstrong goes on to say, “They have borrowed year after year with no intention of paying it back. The US had $1 trillion of debt when Ronald Reagan took office in 1980. We are now pressing $15 trillion of debt.” The debt crisis throughout the Western world will push the price of the yellow metal (Gold) higher even though it is currently range bound. Armstrong says, “Basically what you are doing is you are building a sideways type of base. Eventually gold is going to take off to the upside, but largely when people begin to see the Emperor has no clothes and we’re getting close to that. I would only give it a few more months.”

When the next financial calamity hits, the Fed and other central banks will have two choices. They can print money to try and save the system they love, or let it implode. That means this is really all about gold now.

Mosin Nagent or British Enfield?

Nick wrote and asked UrbanSurvivalSkills which would be a better rifle, the Russian Mosin-Nagent or the British Enfield: "Hey I like your web site, especially the discussions on low cost preps and some of what some people do with about nothing. I am going to pickup a second rifle. My first is a M1 Garand in .30-06 and I have been looking at either a Russian 7.62 bolt action rifle or a British Enfield each I can get for less than $250. What do you think?"

UrbanMan's comment: With the price of the British Enfield at $250, I assume that it is a British Short Magazine Lee Enfield (SMLE) in the .303 British cartridge, and the Russian rifle is a Mosin-Nagent in 7.62x54R mm. Both are good rifles. If the Enfield you are talking about is an 1917 Enfield - then the discussion stops right here - buy that gun assuming it is in shootable condition. But lets go back to my first assumption that the Enfield is a Short Magazine Lee Enfield,....my thoughts on deciding between the two,....

Do you have enough ammunition stocked for the M1 Garand? Do you have a 12 gauge shotgun, with a decent magazine capacity and enough shot shells stocked for this gun? Both would be considerations for me before I bought a surplus military rifle.

The relative effectiveness of each cartridge - the .303 versus the 7.62x54R mm Russian are similar given the same bullet weight. If I am not mistaken, the .303 British has a very slight edge in muzzle velocity, too little to be a concern of mine. Both are accurate on large animal or man targets, certainly at 100 yards.

The advantages of the Lee-Enfield is a detachable 10 round box magazine, which presumably you could procure several more for a basic load. The disadvantages of the SMLE is that some were made in Canada (called Long Branches if I am again not mistaken) with only two grooves and were not very accurate at distances greater than 100 yards. Well, now I have to admit that thirty years ago, when I was in my twenties and buying guns left and right, I owned a SMLE of Long Branch manufacture and it was inaccurate. Maybe another disadvantage is the ammunition availability .....probably not nearly as available and more costly than the Russian 7.62x54R mm.

You can find 76.2x54R mm at multiple surplus and commercial sources, and at reasonable prices - stick to the non-corrosive primered stuff. The ammunition availability fact would drive me to choose the Mosin-Nagant over the SMLE. However, there are some SMLE re-barreled to 7.62 x 51mm Nato and if I found one of those in good condition it would be my choice over the Mosin-Nagent. Hope this helps you out. Prepare well and stay safe.

FBI Says Gangs Infiltrating the US Military

FBI Says Gangs Infiltrating the US Military, from a 27 October report available on military.com

The U.S. military is facing a "significant criminal threat" from gangs, including prison and biker gangs, whose members have found their way into the ranks, according to an FBI-led investigation.

UrbanMan's comments: Great! Not only is the gangs population growing across the U.S., now we have to be concerned with additional and more modern weaponry and training for these already organized criminal groups. As if the gang lack of respect for life and law isn't enough.

Some gang members get into the military to escape the streets, but then end up reconnecting once in, while others target the services specifically for the combat and weapons training, the National Gang Intelligence Center says in a just-released 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment/Emerging Trends.

Whatever the reasons, it's a bad mix. Gang members with military training pose a unique threat to law enforcement personnel because of their distinctive weapons and combat training skills and their ability to transfer these skills to fellow gang members," the report states. Gang members have been reported in every branch of the armed forces, though a large proportion of them have been affiliated with the Army, the Army Reserves or Army National Guard, it says.

The gang report is the third by the NGIC since 2005 and includes the most information yet on gangs in the military. The 2005 report made no mention of gang members in the armed forces, while the 2009 report devoted two paragraphs to the problem and listed 19 gangs said to include military-trained members. The NGIC is a multi-agency operation -- federal, state and local – headed up by the FBI to bring together intelligence on gangs and gang activity. The latest report devotes four pages to the problem and lists about 50 gangs with members with military backgrounds. In the past three years, it states, law enforcement officials in more than 100 jurisdictions have encountered, detained or arrested a gang member who was on active-duty or a former service member.

Younger gang members, who do not have arrest records, are reportedly making attempts to join the military, and also attempting to conceal any gang affiliation, including tattoos, during the recruitment process. And given the large U.S. military footprint overseas, gangs and gang dependents have found their way onto bases from Japan to Germany and Afghanistan and Iraq , where the center recorded instances of gang graffiti on military vehicles. The report also specifically relates the 2010 cases of three former Marines arrested in Los Angeles for selling illegal assault weapons to the Florencia 13 gang, and a U.S. Navy SEAL charged in Colorado with smuggling military-issued machine guns and other weapons from Iraq and Afghanistan into the U.S.

"Gang members armed with high-powered weapons and knowledge and expertise acquired from employment in law enforcement, corrections or the military may pose an increasing nationwide threat, as they employ these tactics and weapons against law enforcem4nt officials, rival gang members and civilians," the NGIC report says.

The NGIC assessment is not the first to look at the rising problems of gang members in the military.

The Army's Criminal Investigation Division has done a number of them over the years. It found the number of investigations of gang-related violent crimes rising to 9 in 2005, after several years of decline, with just 3 the year before. Most Soldiers found linked to gangs are junior enlisted members, CID found. "Overall, military communities continue to be a more stable, secure and lawful environment than their civilian counterparts, especially given recent access control and other
security enhancements," Army CID concluded.

UrbanMan's comment: Rawles' new book, "Survivors" has a story line about existing urban based criminal gangs accessing military grade weapons and equipment, which should make everyone think about the potential.

Food versus Vitamins?

Anonymous (who we are going to give the name "Mack" for the purposes of this post) left a comment on the post Wood Stoves and Preps, ......"25 lbs of rice at Costco = $15. A 5 gal bucket and lid from Walmart = $4. For $19 you get 25 lbs of stored rice which equals 67 cups of uncooked rice. One cup of uncooked rice when cooked equals two cups of cooked rice, enough for a meal for two people. There are 268 meals in 25 lbs of rice. Of course the meal would be improved with some meat and veggies but do not underestimate the value of a cup of cooked rice to a hungry person. For $100 you could have 5 five gallon buckets of rice, 1340 meals!!"

UrbanMan's comment:  Great.  Thanks for the lesson in rice per pound per meal.  I am going to re-visit my bulk rice and see what I come up with.     

Then Chris replied leaving this comment about rice,....."Rice is great to fill your belly, but it's low in calories, and has almost none of the vitamins and minerals you need to keep healthy. Even supplementing with beans and procured meats, a large supply of multivitamins will go a long way to keep your mind and body fully functional.".

Mack replies back "Chris you are absolutely correct. However when you are hungry rice is filling. When you are hunting and gathering for food rice makes the pickings a meal. I can gather a few greens or perhaps catch a fish but there is damned few edible and tasty carb foods out there to eat. Rice or wheat is the staple. And of course combine it with beans or other legumes to make a complete protein. The whole point of my post was not to claim you could live on rice alone but to show how cheap and easy it is for anyone to store a lot of meals for a little money. I also store wheat and freeze dried potatoes in various forms, but in everyday cooking when I'm planning a meal rice is the easiest and most satisfying carbohydrate choice for me and goes with any other food.

The problem I have with the multi-vitamin theory is it misleads people into thinking it is a solution. It is not. If you have multi vitamins and no food you have nothing. If you have food (a grain and legume) simple greens you can pick in your backyard and along the road will supplement most of your needed vitamins. I am preparing and my intent is to provide for anything and everything I might need and I will be storing no vitamins of any kind. I intend to get my essential nutrients from my food and I do indeed know what nutrients are in the foods I store and what nutrients are in the foods I can gather from the wild. Vitamins are a false crutch not a solution."

UrbanMan's comment:  I think Chris and Mack are both right, and both wrong.  Rice is undoubtedly one of the major staples in all Survivalist's food preps.  It is so easily stored, cooked and like Mack say's, goes with everything.  Chris is right that a nutritional supplement is necessary, as even the most well stocked preppers will not be able to get all the required vitamins, minerals and antioxidants from their foods, no matter how fresh they are.   In a SHTF environment with minimal medical care available, personal health is going to vitally important.  However, to put your faith in poor quality supplements is wasting your money and the time it takes to buy them.  I have read study after study about the poor quality store bought supplements, and long ago stopped buying them.  I have stocked one years supply (so far) of prescription grade vitamins and minerals, take them every day (as does my family) and using the first in, first out stockage plan will go into any collapse with at least one years supply.  It's paying off so far as I haven't been sick in many years. Hopefully that would continue into a degraded collapse environment. 

Food is important not just for the caloric (energy) value, but for a psychological value as well.  I have vacuum packed small amounts of hard candy in my buckets to provide for a "treat" during hard times, but rice, beans, pasta, nuts, soup mixes are my bulk staples.    

More on Solo Survival

Prepper Website left a new comment on the post "Planning to Survive Alone",.......:When I think of someone going solo, I think of staying fast and mobile. I would think that the hope would be, in a SHTF situation, to stay low until some sort of normalcy came back to society, then join the living. I picture a heavily forested area with plenty of moving room and maybe several areas to hold up in...some caches along the way etc...."

UrbanMan's reply: Prepper, I agree - fast and mobile,.....or, stationary and hidden in a well stocked safe location. About anyone with decent survival training and a modicum of preparation can survive. I've done that in small increments for training. Ten days with nothing other than a fixed blade knife, 2 one quart Army canteens and one canteen cup, a small survival kit with snare wire, para cord, matches, button compass, a lightweight poncho and a map. It sucked. I lost about ten pounds. Learned much about isolation and being bored as well. And as stoic and tough as we think we may be, humans are not made for isolation.

I think the idea is to not only survive but live with some decent standard of living. The only way to do that is to have planned ahead, prepared well, and most likely be part of a larger survival group.

I'm not advocating some type of "survival commune" living, but planning and preparing with an alike minded group of individuals and families for mutual support.

Caches are always a good idea. To support the Bug Out plan, either at or near the safe location, or along the way supporting long range movements. I have written several posts on caches. And my student Jim (from Survival Chronicles of Jim) emplaced a couple near his family cabin which is his Bug Out location.

I hope not, but cannot help but think there are people out there thinking that if a severe enough collapse comes, they will survive on their own in a minimalist fashion.  Great to have those skills, but better yet to be prepare across the spectrum of needs and do so with a focused plan and a team.     

Lights Out, For Real

News Report from the Associated Press,....HIGHLAND PARK, Michigan. (AP) -- As the sun dips below the rooftops each evening, parts of this Detroit enclave turn to pitch black, the only illumination coming from a few streetlights at the end of the block or from glowing yellow yard globes. It wasn't always this way. But when the debt-ridden community could no longer afford its monthly electric bill, elected officials not only turned off 1,000 streetlights. They had them ripped out -- bulbs, poles and all. Now nightfall cloaks most neighborhoods in inky darkness.

UrbanMan's comments: Highland Park being $58 million in debt and taking out two-thirds of the light poles, is only one of many inner city and adjacent communities that are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy,...their own local financial collapse, which from a security pint of view sets the scene that many other communities across this country may very well experience in the coming months. In Highland Park's case, financial woes have taken this city to cut back on electric bills plunging many of the city's areas into darkness, causing crime, notable break ins and home invasions, to increased obviously from the advantage the unlighted streets give the criminals in casing, selecting, approaching and taking down houses.

This caused me to re-look my suburban community, adjacent from only a few short miles from the heart of a urban environment, and the possible security consequences of all public utility lighting turned off. Not only public utility lighting, but if the electrical grid goes down, which it will surely have the probability of doing in a large chaotic SHTF scenario, what will this mean to me and my survival team as far as added security requirements as all artificial light from ambient sources, mostly houses, will be gone?

Heretofore areas that provided good observations of oncoming traffic, friend or threat, were now dark with even darker shadowed areas that would provide concealed approach routes to our site.

The absence of lighting and threat of darkness can be mitigated somewhat with a larger security presence, obstacles and LP/OPs, but knowing ahead of time what areas will provide natural concealment will not only allow you to plan for security measures but also may allow you to channelize threats to where they be more effectively handled.

Solar powered flood lights that can be used in the motion detection role or modified to be turned on at the flip of a switch can be a great tool for early warning or to create the illumination for which to engage threats with verbal warnings and/or protective fires if need be. The problem with the sensitivity of motion detection lights can be gotten around by disabling that feature and using an initiator such as a pressure activated or pull release activated mechanism to turn the lights on focused on the appropriate area.

I have four solar powered floodlights currently mounted on my house, one on each side. All are mounted on bolts with wing nuts so I can rapidly take them down if needed someplace else or in case of a controlled Bug Out. Solar powered lights with low wattage bulbs can also be placed outdoors during the day time and brought inside during the night to provide interior illumination.

Of course, a robust night vision capability backed up by 81mm Mortar Illumination rounds would be a partial solution as well.:)

The bigger question is here is what does the bankruptcy of urban municipalities mean? This is a trend with debt ridden cities and the debt ridden national government. With less and less money to pay for entitlement programs we are much closer to seeing a Greece type economic collapse here and with 45 million people or so on welfare and that number growing every day, the Occupy Wall Street protests could turn rapidly into riots in major cities especially with any type of event that marginally interdicts the food supply.

Survival Roulette Wheel

I received this correspondence from "Jerry":............"Although this appears from as anonymous, call me "Jerry".  I am a former Marine Captain and have saw combat in Iraq, before I got out of the Corps.  I am now an insurance advisor for a nationally recognized company, have a side line business managing investments for some people (some of my old Marines for some), and have a network marketing business as well.  I live in a suburban area while it is not a gated community, we are governed by a Home Owners Association (HOA).  Most of the residents are older than my wife and I, and we are in our mid thirties.    

My wife doesn't necessarily agree with my preps.  She may even think my actions are part of PTSD.  I really don't care at this point, but I see a major event happening or starting to happen soon, so I want to be ready.   Next month the HOA is going to have elections again.  My wife is against me even attending these meetings, which so far I have not.   I think it prudent to be involved if for nothing else but to know the people in our area and have some type of ability to influence the actions of many and group think.  We live in a pretty good area, only one two lane road entering in and exiting out of our area.   Highly defensible for a Platoon of Marine riflemen, but not for a bunch of non-organized civilians. 

I am having a hard time explaining myself to my wife that I am not trying to take over the HOA.  In other activities I have became involved in, I have often found myself in a leadership role and I think my wife is worried that this will consume my time and degrade our businesses, and our family.   Any ideas on how to get her to see what I am going to do is a prudent measure?"

UrbanMan's reply:  Jerry, first of all, thanks you for your service.   Were you and your wife married when you were in the Corps?  If so, she ought to understand that your were, and are a leader and will continue to be in any segment of your life.  

Second of all, it seems like you are working like crazy on your life,....insurance, investment and a home based business.  Good for you. 

I would explain that trying to understand the HOA much like you did already with trying to get to know people and the credibility you establish with these fellow homeowners will go along way to providing some leadership or direction in the case of a collapse where, in all probability, your neighbor will have to stand together or perish separately.

It's kinda like this:  Imagine a Roulette wheel at the Casino.  You have 20 chips.  If you put all your chips onto one number, you have a small chance of winning anything.  If you place most of your chips on the three or four numbers you think will win, and then place maybe one chip on numbers that you are less sure off, you'll have better chances of winning something.......risk mitigation.  You understand this from the Corps where risk assessment and risk management are a fact of life.

If you think food and protection-security are the biggest risks then you put a high percentage of your resources into stored food, survival site selection and survival firearms.  If you think that even in the collapse, electricity won't be a problem, then you may save the money you would put into solar, wind and other energy technologies and use it for other higher priorities.  If you think that there will be no exchange of commerce except for barter and that precious metals will not be worth anything, then you would not be stocking Gold and Silver.   If you think there is a chance, however small, of being able to use Gold and Silver then you may put a minimum amount of your resources procuring precious metals. 

I think the idea of getting involved at least on the edges of your HOA can pay off big dividends if/when the SHTF comes.   The good thing a HOA would have is connectivity within that community. Placing names to addresses.  I know a local urban HOA that hosts gardening classes each month......ready made for converting to vegetables rather than flowers.   

Did you read a previous post from Selco who survived Bosnia in 1992 to 1995?  He said it best when it takes a team or a group to survive.  The HOA is part of the team you have.  Most of the people in the HOA will see you as a leader whether or not you serve on the board or not.   Getting involved in the HOA will give you the contacts to develop this credibility so it can be exploited when you need to.  Hooah Captain, Drive On.

Financial Collapse in Americans Cities, Counties and States

From the Yahoo! article titled: 9 American Cities and Counties Going Broke

Pension plans, rising prices, depleted population and therefore reduced tax base all contribute to the following cities going broke. Image the potential chaos when city and county pensioners, food bank recipients and city county employees are not paid.

Imagine if the city/county utilities fail because of lack of money....either to pay for fuel, maintenance, etc., or just fail because they cannot pay their workers. The aftermath of these local governments going broke may give us some insight to a larger U.S. collapse.

These are nine American cities or counties facing financial collapse:

1. Central Falls, RI
2. Pontiac, MI
3. Jefferson County, AL
4. Harrison, NJ
5. Detroit, MI
6. Salem, NJ
7. Riverdale, IL
8. Strafford County, NH
9. Camden, NJ

Not only is this happening with cities and counties, several states are near collapse.  2.2 million unemployed in California.  1 million of have been unemployed over one year.  Another 530,000 unemployed people have just exhausted their 3 years of unemployment benefits.  There are another 6 million Americans who are scheduled to lose federal unemployment benefits in 2012.  Almost one third of them (1.8 million) will be running out of these benefits in January 2012 alone. 

Illinois' is almost bankrupt.  The state had to borrow billions of dollars this year to pay for unfunded state pensions.   Business is leaving Illinois at about the same rate they are exiting California (5 viable businesses leaving every two weeks) due to unreasonable state regulations and anti-business taxation.   

Welfare rates in heretofore financially stable areas is increasing dramactically.  This is obvious due to the poor economy nationwide, dwindling employment opportunities, and changing demographics as there is a hidden exodus of people all over the country moving trying to find a sustainable way to live. 


Imagine what will happen to the already existing and currently expanding anti-capitalist demonstration being enacted across the country. Fueled to a large extent by liberal, leftist and union groups (sorry for being redundant) a hotter catalyst for these demonstrations, who currently only have a vague point, could be the
financial collapse of one or two middle to large sized population centers.

Some of these high population dense centers are going to cause follow on problems for outlying communities from any number of reasons: refugee traffic; collapsed logistics chains of supply from warehousing areas or supply distribution centers; utilities breakdown on water, electrical, consumer vehicle fuels or natural gas; and increased crime.

If you are near any of the nine population centers listed above you should be weighing the risks and possible threat streams. If you are near ANY population centers you should do the same.

Selco's SHTF School

I tell people that as Americans we have very few examples of SHTF scenarios from which to draw lessons learned and conclusions from. Basically the Civil War, which happened 150 years ago, and the Great Depression of the 1930’s are our national history and sources for hard times. We also utilize novels based on potential causes of and the aftermath of some type of collapse event,….be it EMP or economic collapse. Most Survivalists have read “Patriots”, “One Second After”, “Lights Out” and possibly the new Rawles’ novel “Survivors”.

However, what I didn’t realize until I read Selco’s posts on Survivalistboards was that this country is full of transplanted Americans or otherwise people who have escaped terrible situations in other countries and have immigrated to the U.S.  They have a wealth of knowledge to share with us. 

I welcome Selco’s website, http://shtfschool.com as an excellent resource for first hand experience and lessons learned from his survival of the Bosnian conflict. Great website Selco!

Planning to Survive Alone

UrbanSurvivalSkills received the following comment or e-mail (can’t remember which) but I have taken out key words in order to provide some OPSEC to the writer who we’ll call “Bob”. Bob wrote,......I have been reading your site for several months now. I am a retired military engineer, I served 30+ yrs. I have always been a closet "survivalist". I served nine tours in various parts of the planet and am very much aware of what can happen when things breakdown. Now while I agree with 90% of what you say, especially about survival being a team effort, my question to you is this: What can a single individual do to prepare, and what advice can you give to someone who through circumstance must go it alone? I have stocked food, guns are no problem and I reload for everything but shotgun. I have no stock of precious metals and frankly I don't think gold or silver would help much except in the very short term. I keep cash on hand and do pay attention to news items (mostly financial news) I think I am about half way to the level of preparedness I want. In a crisis what measures should I take for security? Other than the obvious electronic options (all requiring power sources of some type) what should I take into consideration? Thanks for your comments. Regards Bob

UrbanMan Replies: Bob, you’re an old guy like me. That alone gives you an edge because you’ll think through your situations and develop your requirements from that and not act as hastily. It’s a given that the fact is Survival is a team sport,…. but you are alluding to having to go it alone. If you do not have the ability to build a team there will be some priorities for you as an individual survivalist. A couple of those priorities may be:

Your survival location needs to be very secure. Remote area, defensible ground, observable approach routes, covered and/or concealed Bug Out or escape routes all carry a bigger importance as you may have to rely on them more quickly than a larger team. This may have to be an austere environment if you expect to ride it out without compromise. Be careful about brushing out or reducing sign off of normal roads that lead to accessing your place. You can leverage your security using mechanical and electronic means for early warning devices. Since you have a military engineer background as well as the availability of numerous publications, you can simply fashion early devices from mousetraps, trip wire and flashlights and/or snap caps….particularly to cover approach routes and dead space. You may be able to wire a solar panel and disguise it well enough, maybe with remote cables, to power a game camera that will send a picture over the air to cell phone or lap top.

Commercial or field expedient spike strips may help you protect vehicle capable routes to your location. These would need to be placed at a location that a vehicle would travel in order to setup, assembly or otherwise attack you. This really goes for any mechanical early warning device.

In the event of a catastrophic collapse with absence of civilian or military law, command detonated home made explosive devices may be a force multiplier for your situation. Although I would always caution people against violating state and federal laws governing explosive devices. Maybe an explosives license is in order to be legal. People reading this post – do not think I am advocating the violation of any existing BATFE regulation concerning explosives or destructive devices, because I am not. However, I would assume that in a total collapse scenario the inhibitions against breaking such regulations and federal law may not be a concern to some people.

At the very least I would have some solar power generating capability and an AM/FM/UHF/SSB type radio if not a full blown HAM radio setup. This will allow you to stay abreast of the situation as well as not feel too isolated.

As for cash and/or precious metals…..I would re-consider having at least some silver to go along with your cash on hand. This would be primarily for emergency purchases at, or just after, the collapse beginning, or further into chaos of it all. So I would convert some of my cash holdings to silver. It will at least hold it’s value when paper fiat currency loses it’s value.

Items for barter would be good also. Consider small items that when you normally buy 2, buy four, such as butane lighters, socks, boxes of band aids, iso-alcohol, soap, heirloom seeds, batteries, etc.,…the list is endless. These small items would allow you to travel longer distances, enhancing your security and better protecting the location of your place, if and when to go make contact with other people.

The following books may help determine early warning and booby trap solutions for your safe area. Good luck.

Major Storms on East Coast

Headlines from yesterday morning - Millions in the Northeast remain without power as recovery efforts continue. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports power outages in the following states: West Virginia , 14,937; Virginia 10,600; Pennsylvania 307,000; New York 265,155, and, New Jersey 597,083.

The News media is reporting approximately 750,000 customers without power in Connecticut; at least 650,000 in Massachusetts; 285,000 in New Hampshire; and over 150,000 in Maine. There have been about 10 storm-related fatalities to date. Note: that estimate has been recently updated to over 20 deaths.

FEMA, as well as all the affected states have activated their Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) and State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) respectively. FEMA Logistics is coordinating transportation of 30,000 gallons of water the Northeast. The American Red Cross states that shelters in Massachusetts and Connecticut are open and ready to receive occupants.

The National Guard Bureau reports that National Guard units in Massachusetts and Connecticut have been activated to provide support to the State EOC’s and medical response.

The Department of Transportation reports Amtrak service has resumed in Eastern Pennsylvania and some New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority lines should be in service soon. The Federal Aviation Administration states that there are no delays at airports on the East Coast, however the television/cable news reports there are substantial delays.

Do you know what would bother me the most? Even thinking about being dependent upon the federal government for ANY relief or support. This is a good lead for anyone who is having trouble getting their family to prep at any level. A few extra days of food and water; some candles and lanterns; cold weather gear such as appropriately rated sleeping bags; and of course security and protection precautions since scum bags are keenly attuned to take advantage to any situation or circumstances.

I recently attended a party where I was telling someone about an edible plant they had in their backyard. Another lady, who I found out later was a high school English teacher, was standing nearby and overheard us then told me words to the effect “…that it was cool I knew about edible plants then she remarked that she had just finished reading the novel ‘One Second After’ and was scared to death, and, now was stockpiling some food…”. Some lessons learned from storms can be lessons learned for the rest us; can be used to develop or start developing a prepper mindset in family and friends who are reluctant to believe that bad times can happen; and, can provide a realistic measurement of what the government can/cannot do. Just imagine all the people sitting idle waiting on the government to come to their aid.

SHTF - The Bosnian Example

The below linked article is from www.Surivalistboards. I found it through a link on Chris Martenson's Daily Digest of 10/21.

I have often wrote that Survival is a Team Sport, as the tasks and necessities of survival in a collapse situation, or when SHTF if you prefer, is going to require many people. Obviously a smaller, tight knit team is better than a larger, un-disciplined group of individuals. The idea of surviving on your own, or even in a small family unit is fantasy unless you are so remote and so well stocked as to be able to pull it off. Even then, eventually the chances of running into trouble be it from an armed threat, .....or from disease, illness or injury that would require help are great.

In the reference post from www.survivalistboards, the author (Selco) talks about his experiences from Bosnia from 1992-1995. I found this quote of his quite telling: ".......and from my experience, you can not survive alone, strength is in the numbers, be close with your family, prepare with them, choose your friends wisely and prepare with them too."

Again, here is the link to the article.

Gold and Silver - Perceptions Changing

UrbanSurvivalSkills received this comment from Anonymous…… ”I remained unconvinced that buying Gold or Silver is a smart move. Historically the prices have fluctuated, caused by the filthy rich people buying and selling large amounts to make enormous profits. Anyway, the ratio of Gold to Silver is constantly changes so people can lose their ass buying silver when it will be devalued against gold. If there is a really bad SHTF situation then all commerce will be conducted by either hyper-inflated dollars or through simple barter or trade goods. I also think there are people who are not thinking clearly about what can happen and scaring them into buying Gold and Silver is doing them a disservice.”

UrbanMan’s reply: Everyone has to make up their own mind on the value of owning precious metals, Gold and Silver, or even silver coins for their silver melt value. I know people in my income group who have spent 4x or 5x the amount I have spent on Gold and Silver. Obviously they value precious metals more; think that during a collapse or SHTF situation that it will be extremely valuable to own; or they are thinking about coming out of a collapse and beginning over with a lot of wealth.

I approach buying precious metals, overwhelmingly Silver, as a hedge against the projected worthlessness of paper money during a collapse and as a way to buy necessary items when barter or trade is not feasible. While I prefer Silver not to lose it’s value as I eventually want the world to return to normal and to pass off my Silver bullion and Silver coins to my family, it does not matter too much to me if silver drops to $10 an ounce. Once an economic collapse occurs, the value will certainly rise significantly. I simply own it to be provide a possibility of commerce after SHTF. I would much rather trade in Silver than in food or ammunition.

If you don’t want to procure precious metals, primarily Silver, as a contingency during hard times then that is your business. I just think the suggestion of making this decision after considering all the facts including historically use and value or precious metals; type of collapse and after affects we may see; and your current state of preparation.

Here are some facts from http://dollarcollapse

The US Mint sells about the same dollar amount of gold and silver coins, which means it sells 50 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. UrbanMan’s notes: Today’s current prices were (approx): Gold/ounce $ 1,715.00 Silver/ounce $ 33.00 This is a near 52 to 1 ratio.

Ten times more silver than gold is produced each year, and the ratio in the earth’s crust is 15:1, so how can the price be 50:1? Expect a return to the historical norm of 15:1, which implies that silver will outperform gold.

The paper silver markets trade a billion ounces a day and the world only produces 900 million in a year. The amount available for settlement of these futures contracts is something like 1.5 million ounces, ludicrously little compared to the amount of paper. On the physical side most dealers are only seeing buyers not sellers. There are a lot more people who can afford a one-ounce silver coin than an ounce of gold.

UrbanMan’s notes: Consider this as well -

Today’s (Oct 2011) fuel prices were $3.55 a gallon and Silver is $ 33.00 an ounce. So one ounce of Silver would allow you to buy 9.3 gallons of fuel.

One year ago (Oct 2010) fuel prices were $2.90 a gallon and Silver was $ 23.00 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 7.9 gallons of fuel.

Two years ago (Oct 2009) fuel prices were $2.80 a gallon and Silver was $ 17.25 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 6.2 gallons of fuel.

One more thing: Roger Wiegand of www.TraderTracks.com posted the following alert: "Chances of a major problem in Europe have escalated. Chances of huge precious metals moves in this last quarter of 2011 are very good. I am not talking of $60 in one day but perhaps a huge run from this morning’s gold futures at $1707 all the way to +$2,000. There is no where to go with money if bad things happen in Europe except physical PM and quality related shares. I would not touch any kind of bonds and the only stocks of merit are those juniors holding 2-3 three years of corporate cash with good prospects.

Also the intermediate and larger gold companies should be protected and do well. THIS WEEKEND IN THE USA IS CRITICAL. If SOMETHING GLOBAL BAD HAPPENS. It would probably hit after the markets are closed this Friday. Again, I caution everyone to hold a minimum of one month’s cash, fuel and other provisions. This is not a game. This is very serious and in all likelihood nothing happens. But not make a mistake disregarding this apparent danger."

I hope you are not alleging that I am either scaring people into buying Silver. I have nothing to gain from this. I am simply rendering my opinion. What is right for my Survival Plan is to procure Silver both in bullion and in coins for Silver Melt value. Even then the ratio of my silver procurements is much lower than most of the other Survival Preppers I personally know. I am just trying to cover all the bases. But by and large most of my resources are going into food and other material as well as alternate energy. I have bought several solar power kits when they are on sale – and these are for barter. I have bigger units and small man portable solar power solutions for my groups own use.

EMP Radio Blog

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a tip from Anonymous.  " I've found a lot of good blogs and articles that talk about EMP. The best thing that I came across was an EMP radio blog that holds live conversations with people every Wednesday at Noon (Eastern Time.) This Wednesday (tomorrow - 26 October 2011), Lt. General (retired) Thomas McInerney is going to be on their show. It should be really great to listen to- here's the link:"


EMP Radio Blog

Growing Gangs - A Threat to SHTF Survival

I recently had a chance to read the FBI's 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment on Emerging Trends. This does not paint a rosy picture for Americans in general and Survivalists in particular, in the event of our existing enforcement infrastructure being degraded during a collapse.

Every Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) is allied with one or more U.S. based street gangs. The Mexican DTO presence is in every major American city; present in the National Forests with marijuana grows; and, the declining economy presents even a broader scope as a recruiting tool for American's, particularly our disaffected youth.

Organized gangs, organized before any SHTF event, will have an advantage from that existing organization and established networks. This makes it extremely necessary for Survivalists of all types (urban, suburban and rural) to put thought and effort in security, protective postures and building a survival team.

Click on the link above to read the entire report, otherwise the highlights I have posted below:

Executive Summary

Gangs continue to commit criminal activity, recruit new members in urban, suburban, and rural regions across the United States, and develop criminal associations that expand their influence over criminal enterprises, particularly street-level drug sales. The most notable trends for 2011 have been the overall increase in gang membership, and the expansion of criminal street gangs’ control of street-level drug sales and collaboration with rival gangs and other criminal organizations.a

Key Findings

Gangs are expanding, evolving and posing an increasing threat to US communities nationwide. Many gangs are sophisticated criminal networks with members who are violent, distribute wholesale quantities of drugs, and develop and maintain close working relationships with members and associates of transnational criminal/drug trafficking organizations. Gangs are becoming more violent while engaging in less typical and lower-risk crime, such as prostitution and white-collar crime. Gangs are more adaptable, organized, sophisticated, and opportunistic, exploiting new and advanced technology as a means to recruit, communicate discretely, target their rivals, and perpetuate their criminal activity. Based on state, local, and federal law enforcement reporting, the NGIC concludes that:

* There are approximately 1.4 million active street, prison, and OMG gang members comprising more than 33,000 gangs in the United States. Gang membership increased most significantly in the Northeast and Southeast regions, although the West and Great Lakes regions boast the highest number of gang members. Neighborhood-based gangs, hybrid gang members, and national-level gangs such as the Sureños are rapidly expanding in many jurisdictions. Many communities are also experiencing an increase in ethnic-based gangs such as African, Asian, Caribbean, and Eurasian gangs.

* Gangs are responsible for an average of 48 percent of violent crime in most jurisdictions and up to 90 percent in several others, according to NGIC analysis. Major cities and suburban areas experience the most gang-related violence. Local neighborhood-based gangs and drug crews continue to pose the most significant criminal threat in most communities. Aggressive recruitment of juveniles and immigrants, alliances and conflict between gangs, the release of incarcerated gang members from prison, advancements in technology and communication, and Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (MDTO) involvement in drug distribution have resulted in gang expansion and violence in a number of jurisdictions.

* Gangs are increasingly engaging in non-traditional gang-related crime, such as alien smuggling, human trafficking, and prostitution. Gangs are also engaging in white collar crime such as counterfeiting, identity theft, and mortgage fraud, primarily due to the high profitability and much lower visibility and risk of detection and punishment than drug and weapons trafficking.

* US-based gangs have established strong working relationships with Central American and MDTOs to perpetrate illicit cross-border activity, as well as with some organized crime groups in some regions of the United States. US-based gangs and MDTOs are establishing wide-reaching drug networks; assisting in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and illegal immigrants along the Southwest Border; and serving as enforcers for MDTO interests on the US side of the border.

* Many gang members continue to engage in gang activity while incarcerated. Family members play pivotal roles in assisting or facilitating gang activities and recruitment during a gang members’ incarceration. Gang members in some correctional facilities are adopting radical religious views while incarcerated.

* Gangs encourage members, associates, and relatives to obtain law enforcement, judiciary, or legal employment in order to gather information on rival gangs and law enforcement operations. Gang infiltration of the military continues to pose a significant criminal threat, as members of at least 53 gangs have been identified on both domestic and international military installations. Gang members who learn advanced weaponry and combat techniques in the military are at risk of employing these skills on the street when they return to their communities.

* Gang members are acquiring high-powered, military-style weapons and equipment which poses a significant threat because of the potential to engage in lethal encounters with law enforcement officers and civilians. Typically firearms are acquired through illegal purchases; straw purchases via surrogates or middle-men, and thefts from individuals, vehicles, residences and commercial establishments. Gang members also target military and law enforcement officials, facilities, and vehicles to obtain weapons, ammunition, body armor, police gear, badges, uniforms, and official identification.

* Gangs on Indian Reservations often emulate national-level gangs and adopt names and identifiers from nationally recognized urban gangs. Gang members on some Indian Reservations are associating with gang members in the community to commit crime.

* Gangs are becoming increasingly adaptable and sophisticated, employing new and advanced technology to facilitate criminal activity discreetly, enhance their criminal operations, and connect with other gang members, criminal organizations, and potential recruits nationwide and even worldwide.

Wood Stoves and Preps

Received this from Dan in the Midwest: ”Hey urbanman, been reading your site for a while now and haven’t read anything about wood stoves. I live in the Midwest where the winter temps are usually highs of maybe 30 and lows in the mid teens and we do get snow. Enough snow to make me not like it, except for the moisture it brings to the soil for the farmers, which I am not one. I put in a wood stove with a low electric blower. During a power outage, I’ll be able to charge up my solar
recharged automotive batteries then power the small electric blower on the wood stove to eat the family room which the stove is place in. This past winter, we turned the heat off in them morning, did errands and such, then came back in the later afternoon and fired up the stove, used the blower and the main room was toasty in no time. So in a crunch, we plan on using the main room as a common room and the bedrooms with big sleeping bags for sleeping. right now, I have about 6 cords of wood on hand, and have access to wooded areas to cut more if needed. There is a storage lot about 1 and ½ miles away from my house which contains, among
many other things, stacks and stacks of wooden pallets. I intend of procuring this supply of wood if it becomes necessary.

I have my wife and two kids to think about. My brother and his wife and kids, plus my wife’s brother and his wife would be coming to stay with us in any scenario where we feel unsafe. I have about 10 Wise survival food buckets. They come in 56 packet buckets for meals. Plus I have 60 lbs of rice right now and just over 100 pounds of pinto beans stored in mylar bags inside of buckets. I think I am okay. My brother and brother in law would be bringing down all the stored food they have as well."

UrbanMan's comments: Dan, The food you have stored would not last very long for 10 people. Think about what would be necessary to feed ten people each day, then see how many days your food would last. I am not trying to diminish you efforts as you are much further along than most Americans. I have written about the categories of food I have stored from canned and dried pantry goods for immediate food, to military MRE's and commercial dehydrated foods, to bulk foods like rice/beans/pasta as well as sealed units of sugar, salt, peanut butter, nuts, honey, bullion and spices, all of which are things you can procure on a small or larger basis to further you ability to survive a food crisis. Any collapse, not matter what the cause, will interdict our food supply and lead to massive riots and chaos. I would also continue stocking more foods along he line you already have, and hope you have a year round water source.

Also consider stocking non-hybrid seeds. I have a pretty big supply of non-hybrid seeds. I plant a decent sized garden each year using store bought hybrid seeds. I will also buy additional hybrid seeds of whatever brand and type seems to do well. These are for an immediate needs and also for barter......plus they tend to be much cheaper.

I think wood stoves are probably necessary for all survival locations as they can be used for cooking and for heating. Depending upon your location you will need to take steps to migrate the threats of using a wood stove. The wood smoke smell and the visible smoke trail could attract unwanted people to your location.

Good for you for having the situational awareness to determine other local sources of needed items such as the wood pallets nearby. Your ingenuity on the solar power solution to your blower is a good idea. I do not have blowers on my wood stoves but will not consider it because of your idea.

You do not mention means of protection such as firearms. It's going to be hard enough for 10 people to accomplish all the daily survival tasks without a robust means of protection.

Lastly, I hope you in a location outside of potential or probably refugees or rioting and are considering building a bigger team. Not necessarily to absorb into your survival household, but to make your community safer....and some type of communications capability can make a different in identifying and reporting threats and garnering support within your local community be it a suburban street, gated community or small town.

be safe and prepare well

Weapons Maintenance the Interesting Way

Those of us who ever served in the military have had it drummed into us about weapons maintenance. Woe behold the young serviceman who did not take this seriously. Maintenance, cleaning supplies including solvents and lubricating oils, and, spare parts are going to huge in a collapse scenario where SHTF factors make it unlikely that these items will be commonly available.

As I age, I reflect on training methodology and wonder if there wasn't a better way to instill the need for very tight weapons maintenance and the process to train young men how to take care of their weapons. Well, lo and behold I receive an e-mail with a weapons cleaning video that I thought would keep young men's attention on the task at hand.



For any of you who get upset at the video, please chill out. I meant nothing by it except a break from the serious. Even if the young lady's Glock cleaning techniques could be improved, she did get the lube points right.

Reader Comment of Societal Breakdown following a Collapse

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Survival Prep Questions - Switchblade Knifes and Raising Animals for Food

I thought I would use this spot to answer two questions that have been in my que for a couple weeks.

Larry, from New Orleans e-mailed me this question: ”Urbanman, I bought a Infidel switchblade made by Benchmade from a buddy of mine. This is one of the coolest knifes on the market and just wanted your opinion on it.”

UrbanMan replies: Larry, I have handled a Benchmade Infidel and did not like it for a survivalist knife. Maybe a pimp knife. I would not own any switchblade knife for many reasons…..1 – they are illegal in most locales and the Benchmade Infidel IS a restricted item – hope you bought it legally and hope you can get rid of it as legally; 2 – they are inherently weak because they use a spring with can weaken with age (and use or non-use); and 3 – they are also weak because the blade has to move to open hence not having the integral strength like a full tang knife or even liner lock type folders.  I suppose you bought it for last ditch, close personal defense – if so, consider that the blade design can/will snap or bend at the handle/blade connection if stabbing someone or something, or trying to leverage a cut on a tree limb. I think you would be much better off instead of spending the several hundred dollars that you undoubtedly spent on this type of knife, by buying several well made folders and/or small fixed blades, AND, sharpening equipment.

Anonymous e-mailed me this question: You talk about storing food and growing gardens but I have not seen any information on raising animals for a food supply. My husband and I raise rabbits. We sell them to local kids for fairs and FFA projects and other events, but we primarily raise them so when the crunch hits we’ll have a source of meat and barter. Rabbits are very high in protein and low in fats so they really are a good food source once you get over the harvesting your pet thing.”

UrbanMan replies: Rabbits. I have ate plenty of them over the years. Not necessary some I would order in a restaurant but that’s not the point, is it? Rabbit meat is a good source of protein but is not very high in carbs nor does it have all the essential amino acids like beef. None the less, roasted rabbit would sound (and smell) very good if you were hungry.

I have not talked much about raising animals such as rabbits, chickens, goats, sheep or even cattle because it is not something an urban or even suburban dweller would do. However, now that I think about it a couple rabbits, maybe 2-3 females and a male (buck) rabbit kept apart then used to breed when the coming economy and therefore food collapse happens would be a good idea. Not all urban survival preppers will want to do this. One thing they can do is locate retail or private supplies of animals and be prepared to immediately buy animals when the indicators for SHTF are aligned. The raising of rabbits or any other animals would require some facilities such as cages and stored feed. If you Survival Plan includes a Bug Out Plan (as it should!) then preparations for transport of these animals would be necessary.

There is a gent about ¼ mile from me who raises pygmy type goats. I have struck up several conversations with him (building rapport and winning the hearts and minds) and even took him a couple squash that I grew. He knows me as someone on the fence about make a decision to raise goats or not. I have some t-posts and hard wire fencing stored in my garage and my plan is to buy a couple goats to breed for meat if I can time it right based on the collapse indicators. I can always try and buy or barter for some later as well.

If your plan to raise rabbits works for you, then great. However, don’t let this food source be your only one. Good luck.

Backyard Homestead

If you are not on Organic Gardening e-mail list, then you should think about getting on it. This site occasionally offers good deals on home gardening products and information.

Organic Gardening

The last Organic Gardening flyer, advertising the Backyard Homestead book, stated that even if you live in an apartment, you can start growing at least some of the food you eat and reap with every harvest — saving money ... boosting health ... savoring irresistibly fresh flavors ... conserving energy ... and have loads of fun. And I think also learning a thing or two and be much better prepared for a Collapse where these skills will come in handy.

Not only a source for growing the vegetables and fruits, Organic Gardening's Backyard Homestead also covers keep bees, raise chickens, goats, or even cows. As well as how to cook, preserve, cure, brew, or pickle the fruits you grow.

Some of the subject material in this new book, also include: 13 container-loving plants; Best ways to water for sweeter strawberries; Why you should never soak bean seeds before planting; How to tell if a tomato plant is hungry; Why your fruit tree needs a mate and what to do without one; Complete herb-growing guide from basil to watercress; How to tell if an egg is fresh; and, Beekeeping the easy way.

Another key element of gardening is crop rotation and learning how to properly do so is a great way to get more variety and bounty out of even the smallest gardens, while keeping in more soil nutrients. But successful rotation means planting the right crops in the right order — and making sure you don't follow certain plants with their "arch enemies." Backyard Homestead covers fail-proof planting plan for crop rotations.

Free Trial issue of Organic Gardening and a Garden Planner, click here.

Home gardening in preparation for a SHTF scenario has taken on a new importance with the degradation of the U.S. farming capability. The U.S. used to feed the world. Now we would have a hard time, absent of an exports ban, to feed ourselves. Part of the problem is the high start up and maintenance costs of commercial farming. Read this post from the Greenhorns Blog.

Greenhorns Blog/high costs of farming/

Orgaznied and Pro-Active - A Survival Team

UrbanSurvivalSkills received a comment from Chris, regarding the post about our accountant being a surprise prepper,... ......."With indicators becoming so clear and prepping going "mainstream", Is there anyone starting a movement that doesn't involve Egypt-style riots? As preppers, we know how to farm, and most are handy with a hammer... I just think we'd all have a better chance together, organized and pro-active."

UrbanMan's comments:

I recently talked to a retired banker, who had converted much of his wealth to previous metals, mainly, silver, then converted most of his silver to gold to reduce the weight to wealth ratio. This gentleman did not know about me nor my survivalist preparations. I could sense his reluctance to talk me about possible scenarios that would make survival preparations necessary. The conversation started about how Greece may default on or about 10 October and what repercussions this would have not only on the European Union but for the United States as well. Then it melded into peak oil, then the problems with the U.S. capability to grow and feed ourselves and the phenomenon with the giant increase in family gardening. Only when I started to describe my thoughts and preparations did this gentleman open up and tell me about his wealth - precious metals conversion, and his procurement of six AKM's and 9mm handguns for his family and his current focus on stockpiling food for what he see's as a huge catalyst for SHTF and one that is most probably.

Interestingly that this guy, without any military or law enforcement time, instinctively chose to standardize firearms.

Anyway, this gentleman lives with his wife in a city and is actively looking to move to a small town with agrarian links, size anywhere from a few hundred people up to a few thousand population. He is scared about the big population centers and the high density of starving, desperate people that would come from a food crisis with or without a collapse of the monetary system.

I did not let on about this blog site, but I did talk to him about building a survival team with alike minded and alike prepared individuals or families. So when I read Chris' comment about "we'll all have a better chance together, organized and being pro-active", he is right on the money. Without a survival team large enough accomplish all of the necessary survival tasks in a worst collapse scenarios, we'll be scrambling.

Some of the Survival tasks a group or team may have to consider would be:

~ Provide Security for the Group, 24/7

~ Provide for a rest/sleep cycle for team members

~ Growing food, processing food and cooking - which may involve some travel away from the Team location of safe zone

~ Travel to meeting with other groups - which may require any additional manpower for security or to transport material

~ Procurement patrols - which may include travel to barter with other groups

~ The Survival team may establish a command post type of duty to monitor radio frequencies for dedicated net control or to collect information on other radio traffic

I would think that a minimum Survival Group, for sustained operations, would be around 8 people, all who had compatible skills and who could be relied upon to accomplish any of the Survival Group aforementioned tasks. This minimum number could be larger if the threat situation warranted it, or if the environment (terrain and weather, urban, suburban or rural areas) dictated it as well.

Restraints - You May Need Them

J.M. left a comment on regarding handcuffs, which to me are a much better restraint method than flex cuffs, duct tape, rope or anything else.  Anyway J.M. says “These seem to be quite strong, but the ones I got were slightly bent right out of the package, and one cuff didn't close too smoothly. Seems like poor quality control. Worse, I think ASP missed the whole point of hinged/rigid cuffs - with the wide availability of universal cuff keys, having the keyholes faced away from the hands is a great aid to security, but with these, the double-sided keyways allow anyone who's concealed a key to remove them. The removable locking mechanism might allow modification.”

UrbanMan replies: We have been using cuffs and other restraint devices for several decades now so we have an opinion on what works and what doesn’t.  No cuffs are pick proof.  But you will get what you pay for. 

The ASP cuffs are too easy to pick or shim.  As well as can be pried apart.  They are in fact, part plastic and do have handcuff key holes on both sides.        

The Schrade cuffs are terrible.  Bad finish and fit.  Another brand I don't recommend are Hiatts.  However, I have some (older) Peerless cuffs and they are serviceable.  

The Smith and Wesson Cuff are quality cuffs but they too can be picked or shimmed.

Flex cuffs are designed for one time use.  I would not re-use them as it makes the teeth catch weak.  Besides, flex cuffs are inherantly weak, all it takes is for the restrained person to notch the plastic just a little bit and the flex cuffs (or field expedient) wire tires can be leveraged and broken. 

Duct tape?  You gotta be kidding me.  A person can get out of duct tape in seconds, unless you use a whole roll of tape to restrain them.  
 
The idea when you detain people, such as people you find on your property after SHTF, is to have the ability to restrain them, and again handcuffs are best,...... AND have a armed guard at a appropriate safe distance.   You may have to hood or blindfold these temporary prisoners if they will see too much of your lay out, defensive positions and measures, supplies, personnel strength, etc., where you detain them. 

I have read forums where Survival Preppers are declaring they will be shooting trespassers or worse yet, any shoot simple stragglers who approach their Base Camp, be it a urban home or a remote farm.  Killing people ain't as easy as some arm chair operators think  Outright murder has got to much harder not to mention immoral.  Everybody has it in them to kill, especially when their family or their own life is threatened, however murdering people outright to keep from having to feed them and sending them on their way, just ain't right.  

My Survival team has talked about this and to be sure we have some people in the group more hard line than others, but murdering people ain't even on the table for us.  Hence the need to restrain people until you can turn them over to authorities, or in the absence of authorities you can figure out what conditions you will use to let them go.        

Handcuffs L to R: Smith and Wesson Model M300 Hinged – Recommended; Schrade Professional – NOT Recommended; Smith and Wesson Model 1 Chain – Recommended; and, ASP Model 250 Hinged – NOT Recommended. Not shown, but recommended – Smith and Wesson Model 100 – chain which are smaller than the S&W Model 1 but have a double lock mechanism.

Survival Kits and Contingency Planning

Did you read about the 64 year old man who was hiking in the Utah desert, broke his leg and survived four days until Search and Rescue found him? This was the same area where another hiker wedged his hand in a crevice and had to cut off his hand to escape? This was made famous in the movie "127 hours".

Amos Wayne Richards of North Carolina, was hiking in the same area where Aron Ralston of "127 hours" fame had his self amputee event, when he fell and dislocated his shoulder and broke his leg. All he had on him was two water bottles, two protien bars, a cell phone (out of service area), a camera and a GPS. Mr Richards crawled about 5 miles until (four days later) he signaled a search helicopter
using the flash on his camera.

Mr Richards was lucky. Temperatures in the region were in the 80s F in the day to upper teens at night - more than a sufficient temperature difference and drop to make hypothermia a real threat.

In any event the two points I'd make about this latest hiker getting hurt are the absence of an on the body survival kit and the absence of a contingency plan.

Survival Kit

Just how much room or weight does it take for a person to carry an adequate amount of survival gear or equipment on any foray into othe wilderness? A hydration pack, with fire making items - yeah magnesium strikers are good but it doesn't take up much room or weight to add a cheap butane lighter (or two) and some fire starting material...even a mini-can of sterno. A poly pro or thermal top, a watch cap, gloves, ground cloth and/or thermal blanket are all light weight enough to carry.

Chemical lights, flashlight and even a mini-strobe would be necessary additions.

A small water filter straw and/or water purification tabs plus some more food items such as nuts and jerky would have been really useful as well.

Contingency Plan

We all know contingency plan are useful when things don't do as planned. We do this instinctive in some cases, such as when we drop our kids off at the mall and tell them "I'll meet you here at 5:00pm. Call me if you're are running late. I'll call you if I am running late. If I'm not here by 5:30pm, then head over to the Denny's restaurant and I'll pick you up over there."

There are some essential elements for a contingency plan. These essential elements are:

~ Intended Route - a map with crayons marks on it would do! Otherwise a written description and a sketch would certainly help understand the intended route.
~ Intended Timeline - where you plan on being when.
~ Emergency Actions - what you plan on doing if something goes wrong. Can included safe areas or holeups and emergency rally points or pickup points
~ Communications plan and contact schedule. This would also include any code words - avoid using real names over an unsecure line, as well as any visual signaling measures.
~ What to do if you don't show up.

If Mr Richards would have simply left a contingency plan with a friend and told that friend that if he didn't call by a certain time to call the Canyonlands National Park and inform them of Mr Richards' plan.

If we're involved in a total SHTF scenario where we are running patrols out of a safe site, then developing and issuing contingency plans for patrols of other movements outside of observation and/or supportable distance from the base camp needs to become second nature.

Recession and Revolution

A reader of UrbanSurvivalSkills.com sent us this article written by well known author Seth Godin, whose book Tribes is a good read for the average urban or suburban survival prepper to provide some concepts and ideas about leading, connecting and creating movements, such as building a survival network or team in case of SHTF.

Anyway, Seth Godin's article below, is entitled "The Forever Recession (and the Coming Revolution)" is a good read for all Survivalists.

By Seth Godin

There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There's plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of "good factory jobs" and systemic unemployment--I fear that this recession is here forever.

Why do we believe that jobs where we are paid really good money to do work that can be systemized, written in a manual and/or exported are going to come back ever? The internet has squeezed inefficiencies out of many systems, and the ability to move work around, coordinate activity and digitize data all combine to eliminate a wide swath of the jobs the industrial age created.

There's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win...

Factories were at the center of the industrial age. Buildings where workers came together to efficiently craft cars, pottery, insurance policies and organ transplants--these are job-centric activities, places where local inefficiencies are trumped by the gains from mass production and interchangeable parts. If local labor costs the industrialist more, he has to pay it, because what choice does he have?

No longer. If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that's what's going to happen.

It was the inefficiency caused by geography that permitted local workers to earn a better wage, and it was the inefficiency of imperfect communication that allowed companies to charge higher prices.

The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.

This represents a significant discontinuity, a life-changing disappointment for hard-working people who are hoping for stability but are unlikely to get it. It's a recession, the recession of a hundred years of the growth of the industrial complex.

I'm not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn't look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.

Stressful? Of course it is. No one is trained in how to do this, in how to initiate, to visualize, to solve interesting problems and then deliver. Some see the new work as a hodgepodge of little projects, a pale imitation of a 'real' job. Others realize that this is a platform for a kind of art, a far more level playing field in which owning a factory isn't a birthright for a tiny minority but something that hundreds of millions of people have the chance to do.

Gears are going to be shifted regardless. In one direction is lowered expectations and plenty of burger flipping. In the other is a race to the top, in which individuals who are awaiting instructions begin to give them instead.

The future feels a lot more like marketing--it's impromptu, it's based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people--and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.

This means we may need to change our expectations, change our training and change how we engage with the future. Still, it's better than fighting for a status quo that is no longer. The good news is clear: every forever recession is followed by a lifetime of growth from the next thing...

Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.

This revolution is at least as big as the last one, and the last one changed everything.

Geo-Magnetic Storm Warning

Early Autumn Geomagnetic Storm reported by the NOAA......

A Geomagnetic Storm, now at the G2 (Moderate) level and now forecast to reach the G3 (Strong) level began following a shock arrival today (Sept 26) at 1237Z (8:37am, Eastern). This storm is a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on Saturday morning.

Customers who may be affected, power grid operators, satellite operators, commercial airlines, etc., have been notified and are taking appropriate actions to minimize any adverse impacts.

This is still early in the storm, waiting for the predicted higher levels of activity to occur and no impacts have yet been reported to SWPC – these will be contained in a For The Record that will follow this event at its completion.

This can consider this a near miss because we’re only seeing the flanks of the CME. If this one had been headed directly at the Earth, then severe (G4) to extreme (G5) storming would have been likely.

Also, the storm duration will be limited to about 12 hours, rather than the 24-36 hours that a direct hit could cause.

The active region responsible for the CME is moving into a more geo-effective position and will remain capable of sending more activity our way for several days. In the past 24 hours, a slight decrease in the frequency of activity has been noted, but the region remains capable of emitting strong storms.

The most likely locations for aurora from this storm are Europe and Asia , but activity could persist long enough for North American viewers. The maps below show likely visibility of aurora keyed to Green (G1), Yellow (G3), and Red (G5).