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Sunday, February 7, 2010

Urban Survival Preparation– Wargaming the Bug Out Plan

The Urban Survivalist in Planning having completed his basic Survival Bug Out Bag, needs to develop the when the “S@#* Hits The Fan”, know by it’s acronym of SHTF, Bug Out plan.

The Urban Survivor will have to develop a decision matrix or otherwise have an idea on when it is he needs to leave his urban environment for his safe haven.
Human nature being what it is, that is hoping and expecting things to get better – hoping that the government will fix things, may hold the Urban Survivor back from leaving or delaying the departure to a point when it becomes riskier.

Without stocks of food, the ability to provide security and defense and a source of water, the Urban Survivor cannot afford to wait.

The Bug Out will need to be wargamed. Wargaming is a process of “what if’ing” the plan. It is used to determine the problems and develop solutions. For example:

Time to put the Bug Out Plan into action, I need a full tank of fuel to get from the house to the safe haven.
Problem: What if I only have a half tank and the ability to get commercial fuel is not longer an option?
Solution: At an appropriate time when things are getting worse, you would need to ensure that you stock fuel at your house which will require fuel storage tanks such as 2, 3 or 5 gallon containers available at Wal-Mart or a Surplus store.
Problem: Fuel stored for a long time will go bad.
Solution: Routinely replace the stored fuel and/or use Sta-Bil fuel additive to prolong the usability of stored fuel.

Problem: The vehicle has a mechanical problem during the movement from your house to the safe haven.
Solution: Carry parts and tools for common problems that are within your ability to fix such as a broken serpentine belt or flat tire. In fact, having two full spare tires complete with rims are a good idea.

Problem: The primary route from the house to the safe haven becomes clogged with traffic or otherwise too dangerous to drive.
Solution: Plan Alternate, Contingency and Emergency (remember PACE?) routes on less traveled roads.

Problem: May have to stop and hide the vehicle during darkness as driving during the night with lights on is a very bad idea. Solution: Need a canvas or earth tone tarp to cover the windshield and a camouflage net to drap over the vehicle. Need green or brown duct tape to cover exposed shiny parts of the car.

Problem: Route becomes impassable and there is no option to take another and/or the vehicle becomes disabled.
Solution: Plan to walk overland to the safe haven. You will probably needs maps and have areas selected along this foot route that would be tentative safe areas to hole up in for a day or two. If you need maps, you probably need some map reading and land navigation training. Can you carry enough food, water (water is more important) in your Bug Out Bag to make the trip on foot? If you are initially traveling in a vehicle, you should drink and eat stocks placed in your vehicle rather than use it from your Bug Out Bag. Remember your Survival Bug Out Bag is your last ditch option for when you are on foot or on the run.

If you carry Wargaming through to arrival at your safe haven, you would need to plan how you are going to approach and identify yourselves to people at the safe haven. You may even have the forethought to pre-place supplies and material at the safe haven, either stored openly at a safe haven that is full time occupied or cached. A cache is a hidden store or equipment, supplies or material. We’ll be writing about that later. In the mean time, sit down and think about your trek from your house to your safe haven and imagine what can go wrong. This will identify what contingencies you need to plan for. Remember Murphy’s Law,…….What can go wrong, will go wrong.