18 Months From the Collapse?

I received a call from a old buddy of mine (Jeff) ...not a text message or an e-mail, but an actual phone call such as he was worked up. Apparently he has been reading articles and listening to news program and at some point he started believing the end is near,...18 months to be specific to a collapse. He was planning on quitting his job, moving out of the East coast and basically sinking 100% in prepping.

My response was "Okay, but what is going to be the catalyst? What do you think is going to happen and how?" I have been seeing articles in the last month of so pretty much outlining the good possibility of an economic collapse within the next two years, but I wanted Jeff to articulate the facts or assumptions that are leading him to his own view. So I told Jeff, "you may be right. I certainly think things will be tougher in the next 18 months,.....commodities shortages,.....inflation if not severe inflation,......I think we'll see food riots in urban areas. And the government will not be able to do too much as their assets pool is significantly shallower than ever." But I stopped short of telling Jeff that I think the collapse will occur in 18 months. I don't want to be responsible for someone basing their survival plan on my opinion, plus I'm still really in the plan for the worst - survival prep, and hope for the best camp. Anyway, I scanned all my on-line sources and resources to see what a cross section of people are saying.

Chris Martenson wrote on his website, Peak Prosperity, an article with the title - Why Your Own Plan Better Be Different - Because the cavalry isn't coming. Pretty much summing up that the US Government is broke and will not be able to get out of insolvency. Martenson remarks that action at the individual level is your best bet right now. I think action at the individual level has always been the best bet.

When the Treasury Department estimates that the U.S. has a ~$65 trillion NPV (Net Present Value) shortfall in its main accounts, it's saying that using its assumptions, the U.S. government would need to have $65 trillion – today – in an account, earning a stated rate of interest, in order to be solvent.

Since the U.S. government don't have that have that kind of scratch, it's insolvent. But the real picture is likely worse. The Fed calculates the NPV shortfall to be closer to $100 trillion. And if you believe Lawrence Kotlikoff's math, the figure is closer to $200 trillion. Either way – $65 trillion, $100 trillion, or $200 trillion – the sum cannot be paid.

Paul Joseph Watson, from Investor's Forecaster, reports: "On Saturday (Feb 1, 2014) it emerged that HSBC was restricting large cash withdrawals for UK customers from £5000 upwards, forcing them to provide documentation of what they plan to spend the money on, a form of capital control that more and more banks are beginning to adopt. (Then) Fears of bank runs have escalated with the news that Russian lender ‘My Bank’ has banned all cash withdrawals until next week. Bloomberg reports that ‘My Bank’ – one of Russia’s top 200 lenders by assets – has introduced a complete ban on cash withdrawals until next week. While the Ruble has been losing ground rapidly recently, we suspect few have been expecting bank runs in Russia.

These banking shenanigans (or are they tests?) follow a November 2013 incident where Chase Bank also recently imposed restrictions which prevent its customers from conducting over $50,000 in cash activity per month, as well as banning business customers from sending international wire transfers. Financial expert Gerald Celente said the news was a sign that Americans should prepare for a bank holiday.

And from Italy comes the headlines that "Italy’s president fears violent insurrection in 2014 but offers no remedy as events in Italy are turning serious. President Giorgio Napolitano has warned of “widespread social tension and unrest” in 2014 as the Long Slump drags on. Thousands of Italian companies are on the “brink of collapse”. Great masses of the working people are on the dole or at risk of losing their jobs. Very high rates of youth unemployment are leading to dangerous alienation.

Bob Rinnear writes - Housing ground to a virtual stop. The non-farm payroll report was horrid. The amount of folks not even in the workforce is almost 1/3 of the entire population. Food stamps, welfare, unemployment, and other fall back systems are overwhelmed. Just Monday 3 Feb 2014), the ISM report for the US hit. It could have been worse, but it would take work to do it. We saw the overall survey fall from 55.8 to 51. Inside the report, we saw the new orders index fall from 64 to 51, a 20% drop, the biggest drop since 1980. Yes you read that right. The biggest drop in 34 years........A likely scenario is that we bottom out, put in a massive bounce that comes up well shy of the highs, and then we roll over and plunge even lower.

Doug Casey, on Market Sanity.com said "We are heading toward The Greater Depression’ said The problem that we face in the world today is that almost all – in fact I’ll go so far as to say all of the world’s governments – are actually bankrupt, and the fact is, the world’s banking system is bankrupt as well…Both governments and the big banks are like a couple of drunks standing up holding each other up. The both should fall down. The entire world has become too financialized at this point. People are concentrating not on producing real goods and services, but on trading things and paper securities and so forth. This is a giant bubble that’s going to burst.” “I’ve been saying for years that we are heading for something that I call The Greater Depression…I call it The Greater Depression because I expect it to be much worse and much greater than what we went through in the 1930′s.”

James H. Kunstler wrote a column for Peak Prosperity titled "Get Ready For Strange Days - We're in the Twilight of American Federalism" . He makes an good argument about what the immediate aftermath of a collapse could look like with the states going it alone or perhaps banding together with other another state(s) to share and trade resources - from energy to commodities to defense capabilities.

The last time the USA faced a comparable political convulsion was the decade leading into the Civil War, but this time it will be more complex and confusing and it will have a different ending.

In the 1850s, the dominant Whig party choked to death on its own internal contradictions — mainly its failure to take a coherent position on slavery — and morphed into the Republican Party. The original Democratic Party broke apart into southern and northern factions. All of the doctrinal and legal debates of the day — states’ rights, property rights, et cet. — could not overcome the growing moral revulsion against human bondage. When Lincoln was elected in 1860, seven southern slave states seceded from the Union before his inauguration. The ferocity of the ensuing Civil War — the world’s first industrial-strength slaughter fest — came as a great shock to many who had expected little more than a few symbolic romantic skirmishes on horseback preceding a negotiated settlement.

I believe we are headed now into a breakup of the nation into smaller units, but this time there will be no reconstituting the original USA as in 1865. I realize this is a severe view, but the circumstances we face are more severe than the public seems to imagine. To some degree the coming political rearrangement would appear to be the unfinished business of the 1860s. The old animosities remain, mainly in cultural rather than economic terms. But the real driving force of schism will be catabolic economic collapse expressing itself in scale reduction of all our support systems: food production, energy production, transportation, finance, commerce, and governance.

Everything is going to have to get smaller, get more local, and be run differently. Just as political rhetoric failed to contain the revulsion against slavery, all the debates of the Left and Right in our time will not overcome the geophysical limits of energy resource scarcity and its affect on the other major systems of everyday life. Environmental degradation (including climate change) will amplify the journey downward in the viable scale of human operations.

Two Threats to Survival Preppers

I have talked to over a dozen people since Obama was re-elected about what that means to Survival Preppers. It seems many are now concerned that without the need or chance to be re-elected second Obama administration can implement not only economic regulations that will hurt preppers but the Government is in position to implement changes to our second amendment freedoms as well as our very liberty.

Some of these people I have talked to cannot articulate what they are concerned about other than gun control. They have some vision of impending economic doom,.... and as middle of the road as I am, I can't say that they are completly mistaken.

I think besides the chance of an economic collapse being greater with a continuation of the the fiscal policies of the last four years, the real two possible threats to preppers are the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the United Nations Small Arms Treaty.

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)

The NDAA authorizes the military to: 1) detainment of persons captured within the United States of America without charge or trial, 2) prosecute said persons through military tribunals for persons captured within the United States 3) the transfer of persons captured within the United States of America to foreign nations (foreign jurisdictions).

Of course this is in violation of the Constitution of the United States of America. But the Government's point is to trust them, they will be very select in using the provisions of the NDAA on American citizens. In fact Senator Carl Levin stated on the floor of the Senate that the NDAA did not pertain to citizens of the U.S. But not we now know that the Office of the President of the United States, requested that such restriction be removed from the 2012 NDAA.

What is more troubling is that the NDAA passed the Senate. An amendment from Senator Udall to forbid the indefinite detention of U.S. citizens, was was rejected by a vote of 38–60, along party lines.

What this means is that most of the 4th, 5th and 6th amendment rights that U.S. citizens have enjoyed for a couple hundred years now can be taken away by the U.S Government, presumably the Justice Department, using military assets which are free of restrictions of statutory authority that Federal Law Enforcement agencies have. Potential loses of these rights:

The right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures (4th Amendment);
The right to be free from charge for an infamous or capitol crime until presentment or indictment by a Grand Jury (5th Amendment;
The right to be free from deprivation of life, liberty, or property, without Due Process of law (5th Amendment);
The right to a speedy trial by an impartial jury of our peers in the State or District where the alleged crime shall have been committed (6th Amendment);
The right to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation and to confront witnesses (6th Amendment);
The right to Legal Counsel (6th Amendment; and even the right to be free from excessive bail and fines, and cruel and unusual punishment with comes from the 8th Amendment;

The threat here is possible and becomes real if the Government continues to lump survival preppers into anti-government threats groups like the right wing militas and anarchists, like they have with various "intelligence reports" from Department of Homeland Security.

UN Arms Treaty,..and It Will Happen

I previously wrote about this back in August - that post is here.

If you think that a conservative House of Representatives would not allow this happen, you are both right and wroing. If it was in the power of the House it would not happen, but the House is not a player in approval/disapproval of this treaty.  Let me write that again"  It does not matter what Congress wants or does not want - this power is in the President's hands.

If two thirds of the U.N. main body (general membership - not the security council) votes for this treaty, then this treaty becomes defacto law for at least four years unless rejected by the President or the Senate. If this treaty goes into effect it will have the effect of a Constitutional Amendment. Let me say that again,....If this treaty goes into effect it will have the effect of a Constitutional Amendment superceding the 2nd Amendment. The Supreme Court precedence is that International Treaties, that the U.S. is a signature to, trumps U.S. Law. And again, the U.S. will be de facto signatures unless either the President or the Senate reject it.

And speaking of the Senate,....figure the odds on a newly re-elected Barack Obama rejecting this Treaty. Figure the odds on Senator Harry Reid even allowing a vote on this in the Senate. And what is scary is that only a reported 51 Senators, prior to the last election, were against the original treaty. The new Senate will have even more Senators supporting this treaty. The treaty would require nations to register guns and their owners.

Certain types of guns will be outlawed. And the subsequent U.S. Government performance in the treaty provisions will most assuredly require no notice inspections of those people considered to own "arsenals".

The threat here is probably that the UN Arms Treaty will effect gun onwers and since Survival preppers are indivudually responsible for their own security, the ability to own guns and buy ammuniton will certainly be adversely effected by the UN Arms Treaty.

This threat is probable and becomes real if the Government decides to enact compliance with the teay by going after the Survival community because we are open, easy and law abdiing targets,...read "easy targets" to score some initial victories in removing the "excessive guns threats". And since Preppers are preparing to survive a sceanrio where there is not government, we could be seen as "anarchists planning for no government".

Very scary times my friends.

For more information, I suggest going to the excellent Town Hall article on the UN Arms Treaty

Chapter 26 Survival Chronicles of Jim – SHTF Consultant

I called urbanman the last Saturday although I’m not sure when he’ll edit this and post it. UrbanMan’s note: Jim sent this to me on 20 October and for the record I do not edit his content much.
I have been through three seasons since I last wrote about my journey becoming prepared. Since then I have re-planted and taken those vegetables – not really expanding my garden with the exception of a couple pots of herbs which did not amount to much. I continue to use Silver Saver as a means to purchase a little bit of Silver each much and once my monthly allotment to them reaches the required minimum amount (22 ounces), they send me the silver bullion.

I have not yet found a 1970’s truck or jeep type yet, but I am still looking.

Last year, I had befriended an older couple on my street with some vegetables (cucumber and squash) that I grew in back yard garden. The lady gave me a couple of jars of canned tomatoes and a suckatash (?), which I haven’t ate yet, even though I need to get the mason jars back to her. She promised to show me how to can vegetables. So my near term project is to try her canned vegetables, but a 12 piece canning set from Amazon, return her mason jars and ask her when she can teach me the “how to’s” of canning.

Her husband, the gentleman, is a Korean War vet, and has an M1 garand. After I gave him some .30-06 ammunition (still waiting on those clips Urbanman) he seemed to open up to me and showed me his other guns: a 12 gauge double barrel shotgun and a .45 cal pistol. We haven’t been out shooting again since the old guy has to be near or just past 80 years old, but he seems spry enough to use it when the time comes. Trying to see where his mind is on survival preparation as I think it took him some time to accept me in my goatee and occasional earring and I did not want to come across as a nut, so I asked him if he keeps his guns for memories or for a practical purpose. He said words to the effect that “you never know when you are going to need a gun”…..fair enough in my mind.

I did drop off a printed copy of a book called “Gone Before You Get There” highlighted 77 items that are in short supply during emergencies. I told the old man that I had bought this booklet so I can get an idea on how to be prepared in case of a natural disaster and was now finished with it. The old man just asked what kind of things I bought so I told him that stockpiled a little extra food, water and medical items. He just grunted and said something like “that’s sounds like a good idea, I’ll have a look at this”. Fair enough.

So the next thing that happens is that another neighbor, an older than me gent knocked on my door to ask about the old Ford Taurus with two flat tires parked in my car port. He was asking if I was looking to sell it. I had previous purchased it for $2,200 so my son could have a car to get back and forth to college, but my son never obtained the insurance on it before he left to college and ended up buying a different car. Anyway, to make a long story short, I asked the gent into my house so I could find and show him the title. In the living room he saw my shotgun laying on top of a short duffel I use as my range bag and my web belt with holster and asked if I was going out shooting. I told him I was until he stopped to talk about the Taurus. This neighbor, I’ll call him Bill, asked me about shooting and hunting. I told him, “I am not involved in any shooting sport nor do I hunt. I just like to go out and shoot my guns for practice because it makes me feel better prepared as an individual.”

Apparently Bill has a 7mm Magnum hunting rifle, but has been wanting to get a handgun for him defense. In short order I helped Bill pick out a S&W M&P 9mm handgun, a belt holster and mag pouches (this came in some type of kit offered by the factory) and 3 boxes of ammunition for $675 at a franchise sporting goods store. Since then, I saw him one morning and he told me he has bought a 12 gauge pump shotgun (I haven’t seen it yet) and he told me he wants to pickup a .22 rifle. Bill also told me he was kinda amazed that I was a single guy because I’m a neat freak and my house is pretty spotless, but saw that I had a water cooler with many 5 gallon jugs lined up next to it along the wall. I took that as an implied question so I told Bill “it’s just like why I own guns. In case there is an interruption of the water supply, I have enough to get by for a few weeks until things get restored.”

UrbanMan’s note: The pistol Jim’s friend bought is probably the Smith and Wesson M&P 9mm Range and Carry Kit. Kind of a one stop shop if you are not too specific on what holsters you really like and a good choice.

Bill just said “that’s a good idea.” We made some vague pans to go to the range together, which we have yet to do. But Bill did send me an e-mail asking me if I had any recommendations for stocking some “survival type” (his words) food.

Urbanman is now teasing me that I am a survival consultant, but in a more serious way we talked about how I am getting to know the neighbors, build some credibility with them, and have a basis for what may turn-out to be a neighborhood survival group. I will take Bill out shooting. This will be a good time to feel him out and see where he is at mentally to absorb what I started two years ago. I have the last of this year’s cucumbers which I will deliver to the old lady with her mason jars and make a plan for her to teach me canning. I understand there is a new Rawles survival novel out which I’ll order when I make my Canning Set order through Amazon…and start looking for that old 1970 pickup truck or jeep.

I have come to terms with not living Survival Prepping every day like I did in the beginning. Life gets in the way. But I still need to get better, not just measure it on an hour by hour or day by day basis. Wishing everyone a fruitful week.

Today is the Day Before,..Are You Ready for Tomorrow?

Today is the Day Before,..Are You Ready for Tomorrow? This is the title page at the government's ready.gov where you will find the U.S. Government exposes emergency preparedness for natural disasters and other non-intentional scenarios for SHTF. On the landing page of this site there is a U.S. map that you can click on to see dates and events, in a day before, day after format, which are designed to impact the reader with the need to prepare.

People who are not completely in the camp for preparing for economic collapse, nuclear or EMP attacks, or a total SHTF type scenario, could benefit from this site. Right or wrong they may see that if the U.S. Government advocates some sort of preparedness then it may be a valid thing to do. May ultimately mean less refugees in the very early phases or less people knocking at your door.

The Ready.gov website also has some more videos, while not really instructional, they magnify the general prepares theme. Here is one of them:



For more videos go to this address.

The Apocalypse Survival Bag

Glenn Beck has long been advocating the stocking or food and the buying of gold to help a family get through a economic collapse or greater collapse of society. The risks or the problem with advice from the wealthy is that their preps are often "top shelf" and their general advice is coming from a lack of experience.

However, I welcome any and all people getting into the "advocating preps" arean as this can only make the possibility of a rebound after a collapse better. From an article on the Blaze, titled "Survive and Thrive": You Won‘t Believe What’s in this Apocalypse Survival Bag, author Liz Klimas covers a Bug Out bag from Uncrate.

The Article

Uncrate, a magazine “for guys who love stuff,” has quite the all-in-one survival kit that it says has everything you may need to not only “survive” but “thrive.” But is it really the motherload of survival kits?

Some have thoughts for modifying it. First, here’s all it lists:
Okuma Voyager Spinning Travel Kit ($40).
Ontario SP16 SPAX Firefighter Axe ($60).
Steripen Adventurer Opti UV Water Purifier with Solar Charging Case ($120).
Leatherman New Wave Multi-Tool ($60).
MSR MiniWorks Microfilter ($90).
Survival Seed Vault ($38).
Adventure Medical Fundamentals Kit ($110).
MSR Packtowl UltraLite($10 – $30).
Snow Peak Titanium Spork ($9).
Paisley Cotton Bandanas ($6).
Mountain House 72-Hour Emergency Meal Kit ($49).
McNett Gear Aid Tenacious Tape ($1 – $15).
PROKNOT Outdoor Knots ($5).
DMM ALPHA Quickdraw Holster ($28).
Suunto Global Compass($63).
MSR Titan Pot ($112).
Sierra Designs Tent Stakes ($10).
Guyot Designs Bowl and Cup Set ($13 – $20).
Petzl Tikka Headlamp ($53).
Swedish Firesteel Scout Model ($6 – $20).
COGHLANS Emergency Tinder Kit ($5).
American Silver Eagle Coin in Air-Tite Capsule ($39).
Cold Kukri Machete ($30).
BIC Disposable Classic Lighter ($7).
UTG Elite Tactical Leg Holster ($11).
Smith Abrasives Diamond Combination Thumb Guard Micro Tool ($29).
Type III Paracord ($12).
Gregory Mountain Products Tarne Backpack ($140).
Mammut Supernova Climbing Rope ($150).
iOSAT Potassium Iodide Tablets ($8).
Gregory Accessories Raincover ($30).
Etón SCORPION Solar Powered Weather Radio ($50).
Mossberg 500 Pump-Action Shotgun ($500).
Hennessy Explorer Deluxe A-Symmetrical Hammock ($177).
MTM Survivor Dry Box ($15).
Mountain Hardwear Phantom Sleeping Bag ($290 – $365).
Sea to Summit Reactor Extreme Thermolite Liner($59).
HK P2000 Pistol ($941). Hydrocodone ($TBD).
Ciprofloxacin ($TBD).
Atovaquone($TBD).
Shotgun Shells ($TBD).
9mm Bullets ($TBD).

Given an average cost for the items priced "TBD", the entire Bug Out Bag comes to at least $3,500. Comments from my 5 minute analysis comments: Add some Aspirin; Get rid of the Hammock; Who would pay $941 for an H&K P2000? - save $400 and buy a Glock;

Not much food - add some Main Stay Bars, some dehydrated soup, bullion cubes and salt; Do you really need the climbing rope? For $7 you be able to buy a handful of Bic lighters; I would reduce the size and expense of the fishing equipment; the Ontario Axe or the Kukri - not both;

Add a short fixed bladed knife and a folder; $500 is excessive for a Mossberg Shotgun; Ditch the Thermolite liner and add a couple of military surplus ponchos;

The author says that although this “Apocalypse PAK” or “Bug-Out Bag” is well-equipped, fans of Uncrate’s Facebook had some thoughts on the bag. For one, they are upset that even though its website uses the words “stuffed into one bag,” there doesn’t appear to be a way to actually purchase it all together in the manner it is advertised — at least not yet.

Others have said it has too many duplicate or unnecessary items that would add up to too much weight. Even with some suggestions of what the pack should get rid of or add, it still has more than 130 likes in less than 24 hours.

Earlier this year, author Brad Thor and Barrett Moore were on GBTV to discuss how to protect your identity and what you need to “prepare for a collapse.” Check out the clip. I like the quote: "We live in a 7-11 syndrome,...that is two generations of people who have only ever known 7-11 to be open 24/7 and the shelves stocked 24/7......"



 

Solar Power Comments

ALEX has left a new comment on "Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 24 Dry Run": "Ever think about a small solar panel like the ones you can plug into a car that is going to be sitting to keep the battery fresh? I'm thinking about getting one along with a small sealed 12v battery like the ones inside of a portable jumpstarter. They can both be found on eBay or Amazon fairly cheap.

This way anything you can charge from your car you could charge from this setup and recharge via the sun. My plan is to have this in my B.O.J. (Bug Out Jeep) so the portable battery can be charged from the jeep until I need to continue on foot then I could put the battery in my BOB with the small solar panel on the outside of the bag to charge the battery if need be. I found a 5w panel I like for around $40 on amazon and I kinda think that should work to charge the battery in a full day of sunlight. as for the weight of the battery its not that heavy but ounces equal to pounds and pounds equal to pain. but if you want to charge batterys cell phones gps flashlights run a cb or ham radio or any other thing like that it could be a nice setup.......unless theres an EMP and all your shit gets fried....but at least you tried lol."

UrbanMan replies: Alex, I have several solar panels from a 62 watt folding panel for my BOB up to larger ones for my Bug In site that I can rapidly disassemble and pack for a planned Bug Out. On the vehicles, most of us have solar trickle chargers. I don't know how long how long or even if one of these would charge a fully discharged battery or even one with a substantial reduction of charge.

I have several re-chargers for AA and AAA rechargeable batteries that I can run off my vehicles 12v system, as well as charging for cell phones. I think that post-collapse, cell towers will be up for awhile due to many of them having solar systems themselves as well as fuel generators for power outages.

On my larger solar panels, I can charge 12v vehicle batteries. From which I can run a power inverter to convert the battery power to 110v.

I actually have three sets of mobile solar panels, each with three panels and a simple framework of 2x4 lumber so I can move the panels throughout the day to acquire the best angle at the Sun. I recently saw pictures of where a gent mounted solar panels on a dolley type cart to make moving them around much easier. Great idea, we are considering that now.

One of the members of my group has a solar generator from MySolarBackup, which is a 1800 watt power generator powered by a 90w solar panel. We have cross loaded some of our major equipment and this unit is staying at this families house, which is our backup Bug In site, just in case.

And speaking of Jeeps, have you seen the new Jeeps being offered? I really like the cab over especially with the enhanced ground clearance. I would love to have one of those!

Survival Planning: Another Run on Guns?

I often go through my pockets and pull out $1 bills and the ocassional $5 bill and put into a jar then a couple times a year fish it out to spend on survival odds and ends so I stopped in a local gun shop the other day seeking to buy a few boxes of ammunition for some of the older guns in my battery of firearms. To my surprise at 3 pm on a weekday afternoon, the gun shop was full. Knowing all the guys running the store and not having been in the store for a few months, I asked if the crowd was unique and I was told that for the past 2, maybe three months, business had picked up substantially.

One of the guys was adament that the Doomsday Prepper television shows had much to do with it, but all of them agreed that business would remain high through the national presidential elections and even continue through that if Obama is elected again.

Oh my ammunition? I was seeking some .30-06, .30 carbine, .30-30 and .380 for some backup guns of mine. I walked out of the store with one box of .30-30 - that was all they had in stock. I was told to call or stop back in four weeks.

My recent experience must be the norm as ABC-Good Morning America published an on-line article, by Alan Farnham (probably no relation to John), titled Gun Sales Booming: Doomsday, Obama or Zombies? In case you missed it, here it is:

Buyers in record numbers are flooding into gun stores, retailers say. Ammo, too, is flying off the shelves. The reasons for the spike, last seen in 2009, include fears that a second Obama administration might restrict gun ownership and the popularity of TV shows devoted to doomsday preparation and killing zombies.

"He's never been pro-gun," says Cris Parsons of President Obama. Parsons, 31, owns a Texas gun purveyor called the Houston Armory. So far, Parsons insists, Obama has been "pretty coy" about his antipathy toward guns--and he likely will remain so during the campaign. To do otherwise would "upset a lot of people."

But if Obama wins a second term, he'll have "nothing to lose," says Parsons. Alan Korwin, author of nine books on gun laws, including "Gun Laws of America," says gun owners are worried that the president, as a lame duck, will clamp down as never before on gun ownership.

Parsons says about 40 percent of Armory customers cite this fear as their reason for stocking up on guns and ammo now, before the election.

"Frenzy" is the word he uses to describe their buying. Dollar sales for the Armory are up 30 to 40 percent this quarter compared to last. Parsons thinks his store's performance is indicative of sales nationally, based on what he hears from dealers, suppliers and other store owners.

Gun maker Sturm, Ruger says that in the first quarter it received orders for more than 1 million firearms--so many that it has now had to stop taking orders. Says a notice on its website: "Despite the company's continuing successful efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders. Consequently, the company has temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders." It expects to resume accepting orders, it says, at the end of May.

Stocks of gun makers are surging. Sturm, Ruger's share price is up 55 percent this year. Smith & Wesson soared 91 percent. Sporting goods and hunting retailer Cabela's is up 53 percent.

Other forces besides politics, though, explain the current boom. "There're the 'preppers," explains Parsons, "and then there's this whole Zombie Apocalypse thing."

He refers to two hot trends in popular culture.

The first is a National Geographic TV show called "Doomsday Prepers" that chronicles the preparations being made by people convinced that a doomsday of some kind is coming. A whole industry has sprung up to sell preppers survival and self-dense goods, including guns and ammo.

Then there are zombies--zombie movies, zombie comics, zombie novels, zombie TV shows. Americans' fascination with all things zombie, Parsons says, has grown to such proportions that arms manufactures now have come out with zombie-specific firearms and ammo. Products include a line Zombie Max ammunition (slogan: "just in case") made by Hornady Manufacturing. "We can't keep it in stock," says Parsons. "It comes in a cool, colorful box with a Zombie on it."

There are more than a dozen manufacturers, says Parsons, making zombie rifles, some with a picture of a zombie on them The two position on a zombie rifle's safety, instead of being marked "safe" and "fire," are labeled "dead" and "undead."

Gun maker DPMS Panther Arms is taking sign-ups now for its fifth annual zombie shoot, "Outbreak: Omega" set for June 23. "DPMS' Outbreak: Omega," says the company's website, "is the Original Zombie Shoot, and the largest. It is a non competitive 3-gun style fun shoot. All are invited to come and try your hand at killing Zombies. Tons of Prizes...followed by a HUGE after party!"

Attendees don't actually shoot Zombies, which, last we heard, don't actually exist. They shoot targets that are zombie stand-ins.

Says Parsons, summing up the reasons for record gun sales, "You got zombies, you got 'preppers, and you got Obama."

Survival Shops Report Big Sales For Possible Collapse

From a local Television station in Missouri comes a report about a Survival Food and Gear store saying a huge jump in sales reflects that many people are getting prepared for the “possible collapse” of society. The stores are selling expensive MRE's at 50 cases a month. Reports that people come in as a family and build Bug Out bags on the spot.

Others are stocking up on freeze-dried meals and other supplies to stash at a remote location away from the city where they would go in an emergency. Other people have said they have property which they have set up different things to protect themselves like towers they can stand up and watch.”

One of the store owners said that business has been brisk since the spring, when uprisings in the middle east, the U.S. Federal deficit and lack of government movements to fix it bringing on a deep concern for the future of the U.S. He says " People are just plain scared. They don’t know where this country is going".

From the on-line version of this news report, many diverse comments are made and
UrbanMan is going to take the liberty of commenting on some of them:

"If you haven’t stocked up by now, pray."

UrbanMan say's: It's never too late to start. I think that if you polled all the preppers in the country, most of them would say they are not finished prepping or at a point where they would want to be preparation wise if the STHF.

"I’m stocking up on GUNS and AMMO, the currency of the future. With those things, I can have all the food I can eat when I take it from the liberal pacifists. I’m making a list of all the turds in my area with Obama bumper stickers or yard signs."

UrbanMan say's: Really. A lot of "if's" in this premise. If the "liberal pacifists" have food for you to steal. What "if" they don't have any food? What if the older gent who drives a BMW, who you think as a Liberal, is really a Vet,....much better trained than you,...and in fact knows your cowardly

kind and is just waiting for you to give him a reason to kill you? And you know what's funny? I don't like Obama either.

"Make sure you have plenty of Ammo and several rifles and hand guns. You can always take the food from the others who are storing it. OR Ammo will be a trade item.. Your call if the doo doo hits the fan."

UrbanMan say's: Here it is again,....taking food from others. You may evne be able to do it, if they are unprepared. Are you prepared? Have you been tested with your life on the line? Take you stealing mind set back to the couch and re-read your "Soldier of Fortune" magazines.

"People streaming out of the city when TSHTF, remember Katrina. Most city dwells won’t be able to get out. Many are to dependent on the government for any type of help and wouldn’t be able to find a road out of the city. Also after a while with people panicking I’d imagine alot of pileups on the highways. Without police to direct traffic or city workers to move the wrecked cars alot of people will be walking out of the cities. Without the massive and daily trucks of food the keep grocery stores stocked people leaving the cities aren’t going to find alot to eat, unless they learn to catch animals by hand."

UrbanMan say's: You have a good point based on the Katrina scenario. But do you really think people,....hungry refugees....can't travel 10, 20 or 30 miles in search of food? What kept a lot of Katrina victims in the city were: obstacles such as large bodies of fast moving water and blocked bridges; a fairly rapid state and federal response; the idea that it would never get so bad. I have said many times, be sure to look atthe natural routes for refugees when you are planning.

"Pshaw. For this type of collapse you need a good financial plan or adviser to protect your savings from government trying to inflate their way out of debt. Society is not going to collapse, in the US; no telling what will happen in the EU. Europeans get barbaric fast – think Bosnia."

UrbanMan say's: You will be one of the people railing at the banks at forced bank holidays, calling your broker (if the phones work),....here's a tip, he won't pickup as he will be loading his SUV with food, guns, gear, gold and silver and heading to his bug out location. If you really think the way you wrote, then you are a chump,......but not everyone is planning adequately for a economic or societal collapse so I guess you'll be one of the first victims. To use some social media code: LMAO at you.

"Things certainly appear to me to be headed for big trouble for us average people. I doubt that a complete collapse of society and riots everywhere will happen, but we need to be prepared for some of this if the food supply gets interrupted. I think the most likely scenario coming toward us is that energy and fuel prices will spike so high that the truckers will refuse to drive and therefore no food or other goods will go to stores. How long do you think it will take the shelves at Safeway to empty out? So, somewhere between everything collapsing and everything is roses, we need to prepare. Why not just buy extra canned goods, pasta, rice, nuts, etc. and store them in your house? Put them in expiration date groups and eat the oldest ones first. So, instead of eating what you bring home from the store, you store it and eat what you previously stored. Using this method I have now about 3 months of food in a pantry. It’s sort of a hobby, picking food at the store and arranging and storing it. Anyway, if you don’t get ready for at least a temporary interruption, then you are very foolish."

UrbanMan say's: I don't think the truckers will refuse to drive, unless it gets too dangerous. I just think they won't be able to afford to drive or find fuel for their trucks. You are certainly right at least being ready for a temporary interruption.

Wood Stoves and Preps

Received this from Dan in the Midwest: ”Hey urbanman, been reading your site for a while now and haven’t read anything about wood stoves. I live in the Midwest where the winter temps are usually highs of maybe 30 and lows in the mid teens and we do get snow. Enough snow to make me not like it, except for the moisture it brings to the soil for the farmers, which I am not one. I put in a wood stove with a low electric blower. During a power outage, I’ll be able to charge up my solar
recharged automotive batteries then power the small electric blower on the wood stove to eat the family room which the stove is place in. This past winter, we turned the heat off in them morning, did errands and such, then came back in the later afternoon and fired up the stove, used the blower and the main room was toasty in no time. So in a crunch, we plan on using the main room as a common room and the bedrooms with big sleeping bags for sleeping. right now, I have about 6 cords of wood on hand, and have access to wooded areas to cut more if needed. There is a storage lot about 1 and ½ miles away from my house which contains, among
many other things, stacks and stacks of wooden pallets. I intend of procuring this supply of wood if it becomes necessary.

I have my wife and two kids to think about. My brother and his wife and kids, plus my wife’s brother and his wife would be coming to stay with us in any scenario where we feel unsafe. I have about 10 Wise survival food buckets. They come in 56 packet buckets for meals. Plus I have 60 lbs of rice right now and just over 100 pounds of pinto beans stored in mylar bags inside of buckets. I think I am okay. My brother and brother in law would be bringing down all the stored food they have as well."

UrbanMan's comments: Dan, The food you have stored would not last very long for 10 people. Think about what would be necessary to feed ten people each day, then see how many days your food would last. I am not trying to diminish you efforts as you are much further along than most Americans. I have written about the categories of food I have stored from canned and dried pantry goods for immediate food, to military MRE's and commercial dehydrated foods, to bulk foods like rice/beans/pasta as well as sealed units of sugar, salt, peanut butter, nuts, honey, bullion and spices, all of which are things you can procure on a small or larger basis to further you ability to survive a food crisis. Any collapse, not matter what the cause, will interdict our food supply and lead to massive riots and chaos. I would also continue stocking more foods along he line you already have, and hope you have a year round water source.

Also consider stocking non-hybrid seeds. I have a pretty big supply of non-hybrid seeds. I plant a decent sized garden each year using store bought hybrid seeds. I will also buy additional hybrid seeds of whatever brand and type seems to do well. These are for an immediate needs and also for barter......plus they tend to be much cheaper.

I think wood stoves are probably necessary for all survival locations as they can be used for cooking and for heating. Depending upon your location you will need to take steps to migrate the threats of using a wood stove. The wood smoke smell and the visible smoke trail could attract unwanted people to your location.

Good for you for having the situational awareness to determine other local sources of needed items such as the wood pallets nearby. Your ingenuity on the solar power solution to your blower is a good idea. I do not have blowers on my wood stoves but will not consider it because of your idea.

You do not mention means of protection such as firearms. It's going to be hard enough for 10 people to accomplish all the daily survival tasks without a robust means of protection.

Lastly, I hope you in a location outside of potential or probably refugees or rioting and are considering building a bigger team. Not necessarily to absorb into your survival household, but to make your community safer....and some type of communications capability can make a different in identifying and reporting threats and garnering support within your local community be it a suburban street, gated community or small town.

be safe and prepare well