Brit comments on Urban Preparation for SHTF

”Hi there. I've been following your site from the UK. It's good. Over here there's a general feeling of unease. It's hard to say exactly what it is but things only ever seem to get worse as the years go by. Everyone seems to be out for themselves and I can only imagine what these people would turn into during a real crisis. I see you guys reviewing all the great gear on here and I think to myself ‘Wow, that looks really cool, I gotta have one'. However after a while I started to think 'If I have one, people will want it and probably take it'.

It's great to have the neatest gear but I think making yourself look like a walking outdoor store might be a bad idea. It may be different in the US but here in the UK , someone dressed for the outdoors in an urban environment is gonna stand out like a sore thumb.

I've read a few accounts from special forces guys who talk about being the 'gray' man. The one who doesn't attract attention and can go unnoticed.

With that in mind, I now carry a pair of dirty overalls and keep my walking boots dirty. My bug out bag, which is an unassuming consumer rucksack is also dirty. I still carry everything I need, but from the outside I'm just another guy who got caught out while at work, with nothing, and is trying to make his way home. No-one ever notices the workman. In an urban environment he's supposed to be there. It's the ultimate urban camo. Who's gonna stand out as the guy who has what you want, the guy with the urban camo assault vest and tactical bag full of goodies or the plumber on his way home from work?”


UrbanMan replies: UK reader thanks for your comments. Roger the “gray man” concept and your other points. I don't think I ever advised people to run around in military style uniforms and kit. In the last 38 years, one of the key rules of my work and life has been to "not draw attention to yourself".
Gear hogs are gear hogs, whether in the States or the U.K. Most of these people are “arm chair commandos”, and some will even have their gear taken away before they get a chance to use it.

While I have a lot of camouflaged uniforms and kit to outfit the eight family survival team I am associated with, as well as the expected straphangers, we get by with various jean pants.  I like 5.11 pants but in some environments I work in, you can't throw a rock without hitting a government type wearing 5.11 pants.  

Colored  jeans,....green, tan or brown levis or wrangler jeans, work well as does the Dickie type work pants.  I have a pair of blue Dickie type work pants and usually a pair of jeans rolled up in my supplemental BOB carried in the trunk of my car. 
We'll save the camouflage uniforms and gear for when the situation dictates.

Along with dressing non-descript your planning and decision making to mitigate your risks as well as your mannerisms/body language are all part of the process for non-drawing attention to yourself. It’s an art form to appear not important but not to also look like a target. All along while observing and being able to detect threats, and, prepared to act.

Back to gear, since that’s what you wrote about in the first place. My all-the-time Bug Out Bag is however, a military style, Coyote Brown in color, FRG bag stored in the trunk (what you would call a boot) of my car with a more civilian looking Cabela’s bag carried in the passenger compartment and which accompanies me inside the buildings I work in.  I call the FRG bag my supplemental BOB. 

Depending upon the environment, I carry a couple different types of handguns in several different fashions. A pocket .380 auto in my vest pocket sometimes when I can’t carry anything larger. I always have a Glock 19 (9x19mm) in my vehicle and sometimes will put a Remington 12 gauge pump action shotgun in my backseat or car trunk.  On occasion,...maybe three times in the last year, I have carried an M-4 or other rifle if I leaving the city by vehicle for a overnight or longer trip.  Sometimes your Spidy sense just tells you to do something.   

I know a guy who carries a handgun and some other kit in a thick mil plastic shopping bag. He said something to the effect that Fast Action Gun (FAG) bags gave the fact that you were carrying away. He cut down a padded gun envelope and included some dividers for a spare knife, flashlight and spare magazines. It’s been years since I saw it but I remember him telling me nobody gives him a second look when he carries in urban crowds, shopping malls, etc.

No, I don't think that it is absolutely necessary to be wearing an assault vest to prepared. One of the points you brought up was the workman and that "cover" would allow a person to be toting work or tool bags without undue scrutiny.

More Proof of the Coming Economic Collapse

ETF Daily, basically an investors information-financial intelligence site often produces excellent articles dealing with the U.S. and World financial situation. Not necessarily from a "gloom and doom, the collapse is coming" perspective, ETF Daily does provide some insight into the possiblities of a national and world wide economic spin downward and that of course is the economic collapse, one of many possible SHTF scenarios, that we have been prepping for.

I have copied some of a recent article by ETF concerning government created bubbles and major events that will cause them to burst and herefore bring the economic collapse closer to the surface if not
bubbling over and effecting life as we know it. Read the entire article here.

The Tech and Housing Bubbles That Created These Giant Failures Were SMALL in Comparison to the Greatest Bubble of All, Being Created RIGHT NOW! I’m talking about the massive growth of the federal government that we’ve seen over the past few years.

Not only is the government bubble the biggest of all time, but it is rapidly expanding in four separate ways:

First, we have an unprecedented Government Debt Bubble: Washington has spent a record $16.3 trillion since 2007 … has added $6.5 trillion to the national debt … and is CONTINUING to run up trillion-dollar-plus deficits every year.

Second, we are witnessing the Greatest Monetary Bubble in U.S. history: Just since 2008, the Federal Reserve has dumped more than $1.8 trillion newly-created U.S. dollars directly into the economy. Plus, the Fed is creating even MORE money by holding interest rates low in order to
increase loan demand. Never forget: When banks lend money, they effectively create new U.S. dollars out of thin air.

Third, we have a Government Employment Bubble. The Heritage Foundation reports that since December 2007, even while the private sector workforce has shrunk by 6.6%, shedding more than 7.5 million jobs … the federal government workforce has grown by 11.7%, adding 230,000 jobs.

Fourth, and most dangerous, there’s the Entitlement Bubble: Just consider the facts:

One in every five Americans now relies on federal assistance.

Nearly 46 million Americans need food stamps to keep body and soul together — 34% more than just two years ago.

The average recipient of federal aid collects $32,748 in benefits — about $300 more than the average tax-paying family gets in disposable income.

The biggest of all: The government’s obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are now $65 trillion, nearly five times the value of all the goods and services produced by the entire country.


But Soon, Three Major Events Will Burst This Massive Bubble …

First, the U.S. government is going to lose its primary creditors — overseas investors. In fact, there’s abundant evidence that this deadly process has already begun. That’s why Lawrence Goodman a former Treasury official and president of the Center for Financial Stability, pointed out last week that major U.S. creditors like Japan and China, that once scooped up U.S. debt, are shunning it. Such foreign purchases of U.S. debt amounted to 6 percent of GDP and has since fallen by over eighty percent to a paltry 0.9 percent.

Second, that’s why the Federal Reserve has had no choice but to temporarily fill the gap. Last year the Fed used printed money to purchase a stunning 61% of the total net Treasury issuance, up from negligible amounts prior to the 2008 financial crisis. This raises the question: What happens when the Fed’s actions drive fuel, food and other prices through the roof? Treasury interest rates surge — the first sign that the government bubble is bursting.

Third, ultimately entitlements must be cut — just like they’re being cut in Europe. In Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy, those cuts are taking massive amounts of money out of the economy and plunging them into deep recessions.

Imagine what will happen when the world’s largest government with the world’s largest entitlement obligations begins making similar kinds of cuts!

Make no mistake: This great government bubble — probably the greatest mankind has ever seen — is destined to burst. And when it does, blood will run hip deep down Wall Street and effect every aspect of our lives.

Survival Planning: Another Run on Guns?

I often go through my pockets and pull out $1 bills and the ocassional $5 bill and put into a jar then a couple times a year fish it out to spend on survival odds and ends so I stopped in a local gun shop the other day seeking to buy a few boxes of ammunition for some of the older guns in my battery of firearms. To my surprise at 3 pm on a weekday afternoon, the gun shop was full. Knowing all the guys running the store and not having been in the store for a few months, I asked if the crowd was unique and I was told that for the past 2, maybe three months, business had picked up substantially.

One of the guys was adament that the Doomsday Prepper television shows had much to do with it, but all of them agreed that business would remain high through the national presidential elections and even continue through that if Obama is elected again.

Oh my ammunition? I was seeking some .30-06, .30 carbine, .30-30 and .380 for some backup guns of mine. I walked out of the store with one box of .30-30 - that was all they had in stock. I was told to call or stop back in four weeks.

My recent experience must be the norm as ABC-Good Morning America published an on-line article, by Alan Farnham (probably no relation to John), titled Gun Sales Booming: Doomsday, Obama or Zombies? In case you missed it, here it is:

Buyers in record numbers are flooding into gun stores, retailers say. Ammo, too, is flying off the shelves. The reasons for the spike, last seen in 2009, include fears that a second Obama administration might restrict gun ownership and the popularity of TV shows devoted to doomsday preparation and killing zombies.

"He's never been pro-gun," says Cris Parsons of President Obama. Parsons, 31, owns a Texas gun purveyor called the Houston Armory. So far, Parsons insists, Obama has been "pretty coy" about his antipathy toward guns--and he likely will remain so during the campaign. To do otherwise would "upset a lot of people."

But if Obama wins a second term, he'll have "nothing to lose," says Parsons. Alan Korwin, author of nine books on gun laws, including "Gun Laws of America," says gun owners are worried that the president, as a lame duck, will clamp down as never before on gun ownership.

Parsons says about 40 percent of Armory customers cite this fear as their reason for stocking up on guns and ammo now, before the election.

"Frenzy" is the word he uses to describe their buying. Dollar sales for the Armory are up 30 to 40 percent this quarter compared to last. Parsons thinks his store's performance is indicative of sales nationally, based on what he hears from dealers, suppliers and other store owners.

Gun maker Sturm, Ruger says that in the first quarter it received orders for more than 1 million firearms--so many that it has now had to stop taking orders. Says a notice on its website: "Despite the company's continuing successful efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders. Consequently, the company has temporarily suspended the acceptance of new orders." It expects to resume accepting orders, it says, at the end of May.

Stocks of gun makers are surging. Sturm, Ruger's share price is up 55 percent this year. Smith & Wesson soared 91 percent. Sporting goods and hunting retailer Cabela's is up 53 percent.

Other forces besides politics, though, explain the current boom. "There're the 'preppers," explains Parsons, "and then there's this whole Zombie Apocalypse thing."

He refers to two hot trends in popular culture.

The first is a National Geographic TV show called "Doomsday Prepers" that chronicles the preparations being made by people convinced that a doomsday of some kind is coming. A whole industry has sprung up to sell preppers survival and self-dense goods, including guns and ammo.

Then there are zombies--zombie movies, zombie comics, zombie novels, zombie TV shows. Americans' fascination with all things zombie, Parsons says, has grown to such proportions that arms manufactures now have come out with zombie-specific firearms and ammo. Products include a line Zombie Max ammunition (slogan: "just in case") made by Hornady Manufacturing. "We can't keep it in stock," says Parsons. "It comes in a cool, colorful box with a Zombie on it."

There are more than a dozen manufacturers, says Parsons, making zombie rifles, some with a picture of a zombie on them The two position on a zombie rifle's safety, instead of being marked "safe" and "fire," are labeled "dead" and "undead."

Gun maker DPMS Panther Arms is taking sign-ups now for its fifth annual zombie shoot, "Outbreak: Omega" set for June 23. "DPMS' Outbreak: Omega," says the company's website, "is the Original Zombie Shoot, and the largest. It is a non competitive 3-gun style fun shoot. All are invited to come and try your hand at killing Zombies. Tons of Prizes...followed by a HUGE after party!"

Attendees don't actually shoot Zombies, which, last we heard, don't actually exist. They shoot targets that are zombie stand-ins.

Says Parsons, summing up the reasons for record gun sales, "You got zombies, you got 'preppers, and you got Obama."

$8 a Gallon Gas?

Are you planning for any changes if fuel costs double this year? What are you willing to do without or how are you otherwise going to stretch those dollars as well know as fuel jumps so does all other commodities?

Some analysts are saying that even $8 a gallon is on the low side for the potential price increase especially if thee is a conflict in the Middle East involving Iran. Military analysts are suggesting that the least aggressive tactic that Iran could employ would be to lay anti-ship mines in the Straits of Hormuz. Which would take the U.S. and probable ally England many weeks to clear. Imagine the sinking of one of our aircraft carriers and/or one large oil transport ship in the Straits. Sure, the very probable U.S. relatiation would be massive, but it would do nothing to ease the price of oil.

Others are suggesting that oil at $200 a barrel/gas at $8+ a gallon would spur a massive downturn of the U.S. economy; causing businesses to lay off people; propell another large stimulus; cause the Federal government to borrow more to pay entitlements; devalue the U.S. dollar and push the Fed into another rounds of Quanitative Easing - which of course if injecting more money into financial institutions further devaling the dollar causing inflation,....and posibly the Survivalist Prepper's fear, a hyper inflationary period.

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul's article, titled "Worried About $6 Gas Prices? Try $8" from ETF Daily is a necessary read. To summarize the key points of this article:

$6 gas in the U.S. may be even a low-ball estimate.

We are now back above $4 per gallon for the first time since May 2011,” “In Europe it is close to the $10 mark.”

Expect a record gas price this summer. The oil market has entered the perfect storm.

We will see a minimum of $6 per gallon gasoline in the United States this summer.”

Military conflict with Iran could throw the $6 price target far off the mark, as approximately 17 percent of the world’s oil supply could be shut out for, not a matter of weeks as the Pentagon has estimated, but months.

There is virtually no limit to the upside for oil prices. The oil price could easily double.

Oil trading above $200 per barrel could easily take gasoline to $8 in the U.S., as a panic to secure already-tight global supplies could shock the American people into another significant downturn in the U.S. economy.

This could turn into really tough times, because the economy will be struggling in that environment, we could see QE3 in the midst of already record high gasoline prices. Now that will be wildly inflationary.”