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Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts

Saturday, June 28, 2014

The Collapse Calendar

This article, by Mike Adams, appeared in The International Forecaster under the title: "The Collapse Calendar reveals when failures likely to occur in banking, agriculture, nuclear power, pandemic disease and more". You'll be tempted to shoot yourself in the head after reading this, but don't!  Adams obviously put a lot of work into this article, but it is still his opinion and not preordained. Use it to fuel your will to survive and your commitment to prepare for the collapse.

Adam's article:

In the movie Knowing, starring Nicholas Cage, the main character is faced with the burden of comprehending a written code revealing the exact dates and GPS coordinates of large-scale catastrophic events. The movie is outstanding and well worth watching, by the way, but could it ever be true?

Not at such precision, I would submit, but we can know when certain catastrophes are likely to occur based on an understanding of human behavior, historical patterns and modern-day trends. In fact, much of modern-day human behavior is pushing us directly into a long list of catastrophic, systemic failures which are mathematically inevitable. This article aims to help sort out the likely calendar years of likely emergence for such events, which include things like the irrigation aquifers running dry, the world's oil supply running dry, nuclear energy disasters, a global banking collapse and more.

The legacy of human civilization and its tragic self-destruction

To date, the legacy of humankind is a tragedy of chemical poisoning, nuclear weapons, short-sighted resource extraction and corporate-driven war. Humans are a species suffering from astonishing tunnel vision interwoven with insatiable greed and a thirst for violence. The fall of human civilization from its current unsustainable exploitations is not in question... only the timing of events remains unknown. As the final chapter of human civilization seems to draw ever closer with each passing crisis, many of the more observant people wonder what's going to spark the collapse first. Pope Francis (yes, the Pope) recently warned that the global economy is approaching a moment of collapse.

At the same time, many of our world's most brilliant computer scientists are warning about the rise of AI and why super intelligent machines will soon make humanity obsolete.

Those concerned about global warming say climate change will collapse the food supply (due to weather radicalization) and cause mass starvation while drowning the world's largest cities under ocean water. This scenario, fortunately, is one of the longer term predictions, taking centuries to fully unfold.

Peak Oil observers point out that the petroleum economy upon which the world is based is rapidly heading to "EMPTY." Once the oil runs out, what will power the transportation system upon which nearly everything in the economy is based? (Food, medicine, manufacturing, agriculture, employment, etc.)

UrbanMan's comment: Oil and therefore gasoline will become unaffordable long before the world run's out of it. We may see that this year for some people as gasoline is projected to hit $5.50 a gallon, which of course will drive up every single commodity,, clothing,...everything, and perhaps fuel a food crisis and economic collapse.

Independent economists warn that the global debt-based banking system is headed for imminent collapse that will shutter the world's largest banks and cause all customer deposits to be forfeit.

Meanwhile, environmentalists rightly warn about genetic pollution from engineered crops, the mass poisoning of our farms and oceans with toxic pesticide chemicals, and the dumping of heavy metals, pharmaceuticals and hormone disruptors into the environment. How can life be sustained on a planet that's increasingly covered in industrial poison?

In truth, every one of these groups has a valid point in one way or another. But each of these risks for humanity has a very different likely timeline of likely emergence. So for the "Collapse Calendar" shown here, I've put together a "best guess" of the likely times in which each of these issues might become a legitimate concern. These years are not entirely my own personal guesses but rather an aggregate extrapolation of trends and predictions I've observed across many fields: the scientific community, environmentalists, alternative economists, geologists, astrophysicists and so on.

The Collapse Calendar: when the events are most likely to unfold. This list is ordered from the most near-term to long-term. The year range indicate years in which the named events MAY occur (are most likely to occur based on current trends).

2014 - 2025 World's debt-based banking system suffers catastrophic debt collapse due to wildly over-leverage derivatives combined with endless money creation by central banks.

2014 - 2034 Over the next 20 years or so, the odds of either a major nuclear power disaster -- or a catastrophic worsening of the Fukushima Daiichi facility -- is shockingly high. As we've already seen, nuclear disasters can be set off by natural disasters such as earthquakes. Nuclear power plants can also be compromised by power grid failures and EMP weapons (see below).

2015 - 2035 Over the next two decades, the chances of a deadly global superbug rising out of the failed medical deployment of antibiotics is extremely high. We have entered the "post-antibiotics era," medical authorities have now admitted, and superbugs are widely circulating in hospitals and among the public that have no known treatment or cure. Just this last week, over 75 scientists working at the CDC accidentally infected each other with anthrax, proving that even the government's own infectious disease experts can't reliably contain these diseases even under strict laboratory conditions.

2015 - 2035 Nuclear war: The risk of nuclear war or nuclear terrorism is higher than ever, with new conflicts now taking place in Ukraine as well as Iraq. Tensions are heating up between America, Russia and China, in large part over the choice of which global currency will be used for petroleum exchanges (presently it is largely the dollar, but Russia wants to change that). There's also the ever-present wildcard nation of North Korea, which continues to possess and test nuclear weapons.

2018 - 2060 EMP attack on America's power grid: Once North Korea manages to figure out how to affix high-yield nuclear weapons to long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles, it will be able to fire those missiles into high-altitude detonation patterns over North America, causing a voltage cascade that will destroy the entire power grid across the nation. It's called an "EMP weapon," and the threat is very real. Fortunately, North Korea is still several years away from successfully deploying a long-range missile. Should it ever get close to actually being able to deploy such a weapon, I have full faith that the American CIA will find some covert, off-the-books method of nuking the North Korean government back into the Stone Age (and maybe even setting the Korean people free from the "Kim Kult" in the process).

UrbanMan's comment: Nuclear war, nuclear disaster, EMP attack are all very possible and doubly so if radical Muslims gain a caliphate in the Middle East. Imagine these ass wipes gaining control of Syria, Iraq and Jordan. Access to weapons of mass destruction and drawing the U.S. and a host of other nations into a giant middle eatern war - well, sounds like Aramgeddon to me.

2020 - 2120 Peak Oil kicks in, causing a century-long steady decline in global oil production combined with a steady rise in oil prices (which translate into more expensive food and other consumer goods). Look for massive socioeconomic changes across the Middle East, and especially in Saudi Arabia which is likely to experience a popular revolt and violent government overthrow before the year 2040.

2025 - 2090 Many of the world's water aquifers that irrigate the mass food supply run out of water, turning agricultural lands into deserts. The map on the right shows the Ogallala aquifer that provides irrigation for much of Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and even New Mexico. Once this water runs out, it can take centuries for it to be replenished.

2029 - 2099 Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts that 2029 is the year AI machines become "smarter" than humans. Right now, Google and DARPA are developing advanced humanoid robotics that can walk, climb stairs, run, carry weapons and track humans. Once AI systems take command of these hardware platforms, many experts predict humanity's days may be numbered. If true, the remainder of this list is irrelevant unless you are a machine reading this for the historical record.

2014 - 2114 The Earth is struck by a massive space rock that destroys a major world city. Technically, this prediction timeframe is not a true indication of the situation. The reason I chose to show 2014 - 2114 is because a very large meteor strikes the planet (actually, exploding in the atmosphere and causing widespread devastation) roughly once every century. In 1908, for example, a meteor exploded over Tunguska, Russia, devastating nearly all complex life across an area of 1,000 square miles.

2030 - 2100 The chronic loss of farming top soils starts turning once-arable lands into Dust Bowl deserts. As Eddie Albert wrote in 1980 (yes, over 30 years ago!) In the past 30 or 40 years, the heavy use of synthetic fertilizers, anhydrous ammonia, nitrates, pesticides and herbicides, DDT, etc. have doubled and tripled the yield of grain per acre . . . but at the expense of the organic matter in the soil. Rotation of crops has been replaced with monoculture: corn, corn, corn, or wheat, wheat, wheat. Everyone knows this method exhausts the soil and increases pest infestation, but people are hungry and the cash register is jingling. Yet for every bushel of corn we harvest, we lose two bushels of topsoil.

2040 - 2140 Environmental collapse accelerates after tipping point of chemicals and heavy metals is reached. Mass extinction events ravage the planet, collapsing the fragile web of life and leading to the widespread emergence of infectious disease (Mother Nature's "CTRL-ALT-DEL" for rebooting civilization).

2100 - 2500 Oceans rise enough from global warming to start flooding lower elevation cities, but this disaster, if it turns out to be true at all, will happen in slow-motion, with ocean levels rising only fractions of an inch per year.

2014 - 202,014 Yes, the window of this prediction is 200,000 years, during which time the massive caldera known as Yellowstone National Park is likely to violently explode, blanketing much of North America in ash and causing extreme global dimming for 1-3 years which would result in a global food supply collapse. Yellowstone explodes roughly every 600,000 years and is currently understood to be "late." But in terms of a human lifespan, the odds of Yellowstone erupting while any of us is alive remains extremely remote.

Year 2,800,000,000 Approximately 2.8 billion years from now, the sun will balloon into a massive "red giant" whose diameter is so large, it will physically engulf the entire orbit of planet Earth.  As this happens, of course, all life will be extinguished on our planet. But don't worry... humans are far more likely to have already destroyed themselves before then.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Peak Oil and the Coming Collapse

Peak Oil and the Coming Collapse from the SGT Report and reprinted on the Martenson report the audio interview below with researcher and author of ‘The Crash Course’ Chris Martenson.

Chris has been following economical trends for decades now and has been one of the early guys warning of the coming collapse. Chris makes the case for "peak oil" being a fact and that because of it, our lives are about to change forever as the days of cheap liquid fuel are nearly over. Chris also covers the coming collapse and the need to continue stacking physical material goods.

There is just so much of the economy and life centered around our oil products, from basic homes energy needs,..heating, cooking and basic electrical service, to the freedoms we enjoy being able to use vehicles for personal mobility. Vehicles and fuel are vital for commerce,...from food stuffs being delivered by tractor-trailer rigs to people getting to and from work each day.

Part 1: PEAK OIL: A Fact? Life As We Know It WILL Change

Saturday, April 7, 2012

$8 a Gallon Gas?

Are you planning for any changes if fuel costs double this year? What are you willing to do without or how are you otherwise going to stretch those dollars as well know as fuel jumps so does all other commodities?

Some analysts are saying that even $8 a gallon is on the low side for the potential price increase especially if thee is a conflict in the Middle East involving Iran. Military analysts are suggesting that the least aggressive tactic that Iran could employ would be to lay anti-ship mines in the Straits of Hormuz. Which would take the U.S. and probable ally England many weeks to clear. Imagine the sinking of one of our aircraft carriers and/or one large oil transport ship in the Straits. Sure, the very probable U.S. relatiation would be massive, but it would do nothing to ease the price of oil.

Others are suggesting that oil at $200 a barrel/gas at $8+ a gallon would spur a massive downturn of the U.S. economy; causing businesses to lay off people; propell another large stimulus; cause the Federal government to borrow more to pay entitlements; devalue the U.S. dollar and push the Fed into another rounds of Quanitative Easing - which of course if injecting more money into financial institutions further devaling the dollar causing inflation,....and posibly the Survivalist Prepper's fear, a hyper inflationary period.

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul's article, titled "Worried About $6 Gas Prices? Try $8" from ETF Daily is a necessary read. To summarize the key points of this article:

$6 gas in the U.S. may be even a low-ball estimate.

We are now back above $4 per gallon for the first time since May 2011,” “In Europe it is close to the $10 mark.”

Expect a record gas price this summer. The oil market has entered the perfect storm.

We will see a minimum of $6 per gallon gasoline in the United States this summer.”

Military conflict with Iran could throw the $6 price target far off the mark, as approximately 17 percent of the world’s oil supply could be shut out for, not a matter of weeks as the Pentagon has estimated, but months.

There is virtually no limit to the upside for oil prices. The oil price could easily double.

Oil trading above $200 per barrel could easily take gasoline to $8 in the U.S., as a panic to secure already-tight global supplies could shock the American people into another significant downturn in the U.S. economy.

This could turn into really tough times, because the economy will be struggling in that environment, we could see QE3 in the midst of already record high gasoline prices. Now that will be wildly inflationary.”

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Wealth From the Ground has mentioned several times about it being a good idea to become a recipient of the Martenson Newsletters as Chris Martenson publishes newsletters and links to information of value to Survivalists and indicators of the coming collapse.

In one of his latest newsletters, Martenson post’s an article written by James Dines, titled “Owning 'Wealth In The Ground' Is Your Best Bet to Surviving the Coming 'Supernova of Inflations”. Although I have never heard of James Dines, apparently his record of making good calls is pretty strong.

Go here to read the whole article.

Dines made some pretty good comments, among them he sees the excessive credit in the financial system as having placed the global economy on a collision-course with hyperinflation. And of course we know that is true. 15+ Trillion dollar debt by the U.S. Government and really now way to fix it. Too much of an austerity program will induce a collapse as well continued spending. We have fenced ourselves in. And before some of hurl electronic bullets at me, the “we” I’m talking about is America and our elected politicians.....not “we” as Survivalists.

The rapidly increasing demand, increasing prices and shrinking supply of oil may be the catalyst. Dines predicts that at some point, when the military grasps the declining supply, they will seize the remaining supplies and you will not be able to drive your car until the last drop.

Dines states that the price of gold and silver did not go up. It is the fiat currency value that went down. Gold and silver are the ultimate money, coins of which are good anywhere in the world, no matter what is stamped on them, and that is the money. Gold (and Silver) are the only investible asset in the world that has gone up the last 11 years without interruption, and that is because they are just running the printing presses. The more they do, the more value builds into gold and silver. If a Survivalist does not have any precious metals then they run the risk of having a hole, large or small, in the plan.....plain and simple.

The point of the Wealth in the Ground article is about the only assets that would survive an economic collapse and the chaos that went with it is hard assets. Hard assets, in part being, being physical commodities, mining companies, gold and silver. When I first read the title and linked to it, I thought I would find someone advocating Wealth in the Ground” to mean,…a safe and secure survival site; a full time, year round water supply; ability to grow crops to sustain your survival family;......but Dines did not touch n that, but it is a logical extension of the wealth in the ground argument.

Anyway, a good article to read in it’s entirety and the Martenson newsletter at the very least motivates you to prep harder. He is one of many sources I tune to almost each and every day,…sometimes spending 2 or 3 minutes looking for something of interest,…and sometimes spending 20 minutes or more reading something where I’ll think,…”that’s a good point”.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Iran and the Coming Fuel Crunch, Which May Be The Least of Our Concerns

Jairo wrote and said: "Hi again Urban-Man. I don't mean to over do it. However I found this pretty alarming. The things this will do to the price of fuel in this country would most likely push our economy over the side. The price of fuel goes up- so will the price of food, staples and everything else! My preps are far from ready. However this just motivates me to press on. Stay safe, stay prepared!"

Thanks Jairo, you are absolutely right, an economic collapse would result.

Jairo also provided a link to an article about Secretary of Defense Panetta stating that Israel could strike Iran by Spring.

In the article US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a "strong possibility" that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear installations this spring, and that President Barack Obama and Panetta are "said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold," he said.

Israeli media reported in October last year that the option of pre-emptive air strikes on Iran was opposed by the country's intelligence services but favored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak. Israeli television said Mossad chief Tamir Pardo raised the possibility of a unilateral strike on Iran during a visit last week to Washington.

Additionally, WND also published an article written by Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award winning book, “A Time to Betray.” This article, titled "Global Insecurity - Iran warns world of coming great event"

This article, only excerpts are included below, details how even among crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear weapons program, Iran is continuing to prepare itself for war against the West, and now is warning of a coming great event.

“In light of the realization of the divine promise by almighty God, the Zionists and the Great Satan (America) will soon be defeated,” Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, is warning. Khamenei, speaking to hundreds of youths from more than 70 countries attending a world conference on the Arab Spring just days ago, told a cheering crowd in Tehran that “Allah’s promises will be delivered and Islam will be victorious.” Khamenei then claimed that the current century as the century of Islam and promised that human history is on the verge of a great event and that soon the world will realize the power of Allah.

Many clerics in Iran have stated that Khamenei is the deputy of the last Islamic messiah on earth and that obedience to him is necessary for the final glorification of Islam. Khamenei has been heard to say that the coming of the last Islamic Messiah, the Shiites’ 12th Imam Mahdi, is near and that specific actions need to be taken to protect the Islamic regime for upcoming events.

Mahdi, according to Shiite belief, will reappear at the time of Armageddon. Selected forces within the Revolutionary Guards and Basij reportedly have been trained under a task force called “Soldiers of Imam Mahdi” and they will bear the responsibility of security and protecting the regime against uprisings. Many in the Guards and Basij have been told that the 12th Imam is on earth, facilitated the victory of Hezbollah over Israel in the 2006 war and soon will announce publicly his presence after the needed environment is created.

Iran is speeding up completion of the nuclear bomb program in which missiles can be armed with nuclear warheads. Iran believes once that’s achieved, Iran can test a nuclear bomb, letting the world know that Iran has joined the nuclear-armed club and that any confrontation will result in destruction of much of the Western world.

The Revolutionary Guards not only can hit all U.S. bases in the Middle East with their ballistic missiles but also reach most capital cities in Western Europe. The Guards, with the help of China and North Korea, are working on intercontinental ballistic missiles. But more dangerous to America, as reported last July, is the Guards action in arming their vessels with long-range ballistic missiles and their expansion of their mission into the Atlantic Ocean, right into the Gulf of Mexico.

And here's the scary part,.....any Iranian military or commercial vessel easily could get right outside the U.S. coastline and in less than 60 seconds fire a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear payload and detonate it over U.S. skies in an electromagnetic attack that would plunge America back into the 18th century. Studies show within just one year after such an attack, two-thirds of Americans would cease to exist and the rest would live under dire conditions.

Possible scenarios that impact on us here in the states:
1. The Israeli's strike Iran, over 40% of the world's oil supplies are disrupted, economic disaster hits our homeland.
2. The Iranians strike Israel and the resulting war, no matter how short, will disrupt oil supplies - read economic disaster here in the states.
3. Possibility of Iranian sponsored nuclear strike(s) in the states, with a resulting SHTF and economic-social and basically total collapse.

Watch the video below:

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Survival Preparation - Peak Oil - Collapse Catalyst

Chris Martenson article from 27 May
Peak Oil - Why Time is Now Short

The Next Oil Shock

The only thing that could prevent another oil shock from happening before the end of 2012 would be another major economic contraction. The emerging oil data continues to tell a tale of ever-tightening supplies that will soon be exceeded by rising global demand. This time, we will not be able to blame speculators for the steep prices we experience; instead, we will have nothing to blame but geology.

Back in 2009, I wrote a pair of reports in which I calculated that we’d see another price spike in oil by 2010 or 2011, based on some assumptions about global GDP growth rates, rates of decline in existing oil fields, and new projects set to come online. Given the recent price spike in oil (Brent crude over $126, now at $115) and recent oil supply data, those predictions turned out to be quite solid (for reference, oil was trading in the low $60s at the time).

One part I whiffed on was in my prediction that the world community would have embraced the idea of Peak Oil by now and begun adjusting accordingly, but that’s not really true except in a few cases (e.g. Sweden). Perhaps things are being differently and more seriously considered behind closed doors, but out in public the dominant story line concerns reinvigorating consumer demand, not a looming liquid fuel crisis.

At any rate, with Brent crude oil having lofted over $100/bbl at the beginning of February 2011 and remained above that for four months now, we are already in the middle of a price shock.

Looking at the new data I am now ready to move my ‘Peak Oil is a statistically unavoidable fact’ event to sometime in 2012, which tightens my prediction from the prior range of 2012-2013.

The next shock will drive oil to new heights that are currently unimaginable for most. First, $200/bbl will be breached, then $300, and then more. And these are in current dollar terms; any additional dollar weakness will simply be additive to the actual quoted price. By this I mean that if oil were to trade at $200 but the dollar lost one half of its value along the way, then oil would be priced at $400.

In 2009, I wrote a special report on oil that explored the interplay between energy and the economy. At that time, the stock market was in the tank, global growth was in a freefall, and things looked gloomy. (And in regards to the masive Federal Stimulus)....these trillions and trillions of dollars, which, along with (borrowed) foreign equivalents (money), are being applied to “ease the credit crunch,” will eventually find their mark and deliver what feels like a legitimate rebound in activity. (Don't be fooled into complacency with mediocre short term stats that indicate a economic recovery).

For now, debts are defaulting faster than the various central banks and governments can inject new money and borrowing activity into the system. Banks aren’t lending because there are very few compelling loans to make, especially if future losses have to actually be carried by the bank making the loan.

But this won’t be true forever. Sooner or later, all the trillions of new dollars will trot out of the barn, begin to gallop, and then thunder off, creating the appearance of a healthy economy. (But) it will be a cruel illusion. Money is only one component of growth. As we’ve strenuously proposed, energy is a necessary prerequisite for growth.

Housing remains in a serious slump, wage-based income growth is poor, Europe remains mired in a serious debt crisis, Japan has slumped back into recession, and the US fiscal deficit is a structural nightmare. Worse, GDP growth is relatively tepid and would be negative, deeply negative, without all the deficit spending and liquidity measures.

We are driving at a high rate of speed into a box canyon,.....Peak Oil is only one of many factors.