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Showing posts with label Economic SHTF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic SHTF. Show all posts

Thursday, July 18, 2013

6 Facts that Foretell the Slide Into A Economic Collapse

Statistics from Kyle Becker on the Independent Journal Review, in an article titled "6 Economic Stats That Will Make You Wanna Cry." Copy and send these to your friends who do not think things are bad enough to have a SHTF plan. Or at least try and figure out how are you going to pay bills and buy food once the food crisis hits, government goes broke, hyper inflation sets in, and this country generally slides into the third world status that we seem to be heading for.

1. 101 Million Food Aid Recipients

"The number of Americans receiving subsidized food assistance from the federal government has risen to 101 million, representing roughly a third of the U.S. population.... That means the number of Americans receiving food assistance has surpassed the number of private sector workers in the U.S.." [CNS News, July 7th, 2013]

2. 54 Straight Months of 7.5% Unemployment or Above

"Since January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the United States has seen 54 straight months with the unemployment rate at 7.5 percent or higher, which is the longest stretch of unemployment at or above that rate since 1948"... [CNS News, July 5th. 2013]

3. Long-Term Unemployment

"Of the 11.8 million jobless Americans in June, 4.3 million had been out of work six months or longer. There were 1 million fewer long-term jobless than last year, but their ranks remain way above the previous high-water mark of 2.8 million in 1983." [Huffington Post, July 5th, 2013]

4. Labor Participation Rate

"The number of people not in the labor force which in March soared by a massive 663,000 to a record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work... And even worse, the labor force participation rate plunged from an already abysmal 63.5% to 63.3% - the lowest since 1979! [ZeroHedge, April 2013]

5. Disability Recipients

"The total number of people in the United States now receiving federal disability benefits hit a record 10,962,532 million in April, which exceeds the 10,815,197 people who live in the nation of Greece." [CNS News, May 2013]

6. Poverty Rate Skyrockets

Finally: "As the president began the first year of his second term, the U.S. poverty rate rose to a level not seen since the 1960s... The Census Bureau says that 50 million Americans, roughly one in six — almost 17% — are living below the poverty line... apparently 20% of the nation's children are living in poverty." [IBD, April 2013]

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Gold Won't Save You?

I am a proponent of the average survivalist holding some precious metals, such silver bullion and coins that have silver melt value, and, even some gold is they can afford it. This is to use primarily as barter in the phase of an economic collapse where people realize fiat currency has no value or at least will not accept fiat currency.

Others look at Gold and Silver as an investment for hyper inflation. And to be sure there is substantial potential for becoming very well off by having significant holdings of precious metals in the (hopefully) later stages of a collapse where the country and economy are being rebuilt .

Enter Marc Faber's premise that "Not Even Gold Will Save You From What Is Coming", an article published on the well respected Business Insider.

Marc Faber, who authors the Gloom Boom & Doom newsletter, is usually pretty bearish on stocks and bullish on gold. Lately, though, gold doesn't seem like it can catch a bid.

"Despite the continued reverberations regarding the Cyprus bailout and its involvement of bank deposits, gold struggled to maintain the positive momentum created in the first two weeks of March and instead now looks very likely to move lower, towards $1580 an oz," wrote Deutsche Bank commodities analyst Xiao Fu in a note this morning.

So, what does Faber have to say about it?

This morning, on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Alix Steel, Dr. Doom was asked why gold wasn't holding up.

Here's his explanation:

When you print money, the money does not flow evenly into the economic system. It stays essentially in the financial service industry and among people that have access to these funds, mostly well-to-do people. It does not go to the worker. I just mentioned that it doesn't flow evenly into the system.

Now from time to time it will lift the NASDAQ like between 1997 and March 2000. Then it lifted home prices in the U.S. until 2007. Then it lifted the commodity prices in 2008 until July 2008 when the global economy was already in recession. More recently it has lifted selected emerging economies, stock markets in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, up four times from 2009 lows and now the U.S.

So we are creating bubbles and bubbles and bubbles. This bubble will come to an end. My concern is that we are going to have a systemic crisis where it is going to be very difficult to hide. Even in gold, it will be difficult to hide.

Faber is, of course, still bearish on U.S. stocks. He told Bloomberg that he sees "considerable downside risk" in the market.

Listen to Mr Faber yourself and see if he makes sense.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Worldwide Indicators of SHTF, September 2012

Global Economy. Moody's downgrades the Global Economy,..."Moody's analysts states that: risks to the global forecast remain to the downside and have risen relative to the risks perceived earlier in the year. The main risks to the global macro outlook stem from (i) a deeper than currently expected recession in the euro area, for example caused by deeper credit contraction; (ii) the risk of a hard landing in major emerging market economies, including China, India and Brazil; (iii) an oil-price supply-side shock resulting from resurfacing geopolitical risks; and (iv) the risk of sudden and sharp fiscal tightening in the US in 2013, given recent political gridlock."

Spain. Jobless roster grew to 4.63 million people in August 2012. The Spanish are suffering a nearly 25 per cent unemployment rate.

Unemployment now at 10%; businesses and capital are leaving France at an alarming rate due to high taxation on businesses and the wealthy by the new Socialist Government. 

is expected to hit 27 to 29% in early 2013. 1 in 3 Greece businesses are closing.

is now reported to be much further along than previously thought in development of a nuclear weapon, both in the enriching of uranium and the computer modeling for weapons design.

United States:
Many Urban food pantries supporting the poor are depleted. Donation both monetary and food supply wise are way down now while the demand is increasing.

Latest data has 46.7 million people on food stamps. Food stamps has doubled in the last four years and there is no reversal in site.

Food Prices already up by an average of 30% in the last 18 month is expected to go up another 8% in the next three months.

U.S. Cities going bankrupt San Bernadino, Mammoth Lakes, Stockton are bankrupt. Fresno, Compton and San Jose are not far behind,...and these are just in California. Rhode Island has Central Falls. Other cities on the bubble (and going to fall) include: Miami; Detroit; Rockland County, NY; and Gary, IN.

National drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor estimates that up to 80% of the contiguous 48 states faced moderate to exceptional drought conditions over the summer. A lack of rain coupled with high temperatures severely damaged corn and soybean crops. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the corn harvest to fall 13% from last year’s crop, and expects the soybean crop to fall 12%.

Collapse of the Dollar. The dollar is dropping, and to be fair it comes up and goes down, then comes up again and goes down, but overall the buying power of the U.S. dollar and the respect if has as the World's Reserve Currency is greatly diminished. The Fed is initiating another type of Quantitative Easing which will certainly devalue the dollar more. Fuel prices will go up, as will virtually everything else on the planet.

Oil prices are no longer expected to ever drop below $80 a barrel. In fact, some experts are bracing us to see $200 a barrel in mid 2013.

Hey, things are good. Take that extra $30 and go see a movie. You don't need to buy more foods, supplies or ammunition!!

Friday, September 7, 2012

Economic Death Spiral Coming

Economist Richard Duncan: "Civilization May Not Survive Death Spiral", By Terry Weiss, Money Morning

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC. And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it." And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions. Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included. However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings: "We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible. Click here to see how banks are escalating the collapse... "And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything." Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries. "What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered. "Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated. The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings.

"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern. "For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that. "Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead. Editor's note: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism."

According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way." Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."

We can see the strain on society already. In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.

Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.

Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics." "If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable." "People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald. Watch the video here:

Sunday, May 6, 2012

There are many of us out there preparing for a economic collapse within the United States. I am convinced that many of us could not really articulate the factors of an economic SHFT, or why this collapse is likely to occur. The video below is very sobering and a fairly non-partisan explanation of the Federal financial problem. It serves two purposes: 1 – to articulate the “why” of a probable collapse, 2 – scare the hell out of you that the problem(s) are not solvable therefore the economic collapse probable. The video explains that the U.S. debt is 32 times greater than Greece. While the U.S. obviously has much more means to re-pay debt, we also have much more discretionary obligations, read entitlements, that Greece doesn’t have. Without a dynamic course change the U.S. will see a substantial if not catastrophic economic collapse like Greece,......but the riots will not be like Greece. They will be much more wide spread and violent. While the economic problems in Greece did lead to a short duration food and commodities shortage, the shortage we’ll see here in the U.S. will be substantial. Like the video states, It’s when, not if, the U.S. will collapse from this soaring debt.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

$8 a Gallon Gas?

Are you planning for any changes if fuel costs double this year? What are you willing to do without or how are you otherwise going to stretch those dollars as well know as fuel jumps so does all other commodities?

Some analysts are saying that even $8 a gallon is on the low side for the potential price increase especially if thee is a conflict in the Middle East involving Iran. Military analysts are suggesting that the least aggressive tactic that Iran could employ would be to lay anti-ship mines in the Straits of Hormuz. Which would take the U.S. and probable ally England many weeks to clear. Imagine the sinking of one of our aircraft carriers and/or one large oil transport ship in the Straits. Sure, the very probable U.S. relatiation would be massive, but it would do nothing to ease the price of oil.

Others are suggesting that oil at $200 a barrel/gas at $8+ a gallon would spur a massive downturn of the U.S. economy; causing businesses to lay off people; propell another large stimulus; cause the Federal government to borrow more to pay entitlements; devalue the U.S. dollar and push the Fed into another rounds of Quanitative Easing - which of course if injecting more money into financial institutions further devaling the dollar causing inflation,....and posibly the Survivalist Prepper's fear, a hyper inflationary period.

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul's article, titled "Worried About $6 Gas Prices? Try $8" from ETF Daily is a necessary read. To summarize the key points of this article:

$6 gas in the U.S. may be even a low-ball estimate.

We are now back above $4 per gallon for the first time since May 2011,” “In Europe it is close to the $10 mark.”

Expect a record gas price this summer. The oil market has entered the perfect storm.

We will see a minimum of $6 per gallon gasoline in the United States this summer.”

Military conflict with Iran could throw the $6 price target far off the mark, as approximately 17 percent of the world’s oil supply could be shut out for, not a matter of weeks as the Pentagon has estimated, but months.

There is virtually no limit to the upside for oil prices. The oil price could easily double.

Oil trading above $200 per barrel could easily take gasoline to $8 in the U.S., as a panic to secure already-tight global supplies could shock the American people into another significant downturn in the U.S. economy.

This could turn into really tough times, because the economy will be struggling in that environment, we could see QE3 in the midst of already record high gasoline prices. Now that will be wildly inflationary.”

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Economic Collapse: Watch Out For QE3

QE3 is of course Quantitative Easing Round Three, where more fiat currency is printed further devaluing the current paper money in circulation and necessarily causing prices to inflate because the dollar is worth less. Once QE3 is announced or actually executed,.....expect the latter since the Government and the Fed have taken secrecy from the people to new heights,....precious metals will go up, particularly Gold.

In fact, when the major central banks launched a joint action to provide emergency U.S. dollar loans to banks in Europe, which put more money (not backed by anything but some politician's word) there became a rush to buy equities and commodities that would survive inflation and Gold rose $30 an ounce.

As 2011 ends, the four FED governors will be replaced and most analysts figure that the next four will be much more liberal in their monetary policies. QE3 will probably be snuck in, money created from air, without much publicity; and the present incredible low interest rates will climb as the dollar devalues. This will incite the $16.4 trillion Federal Debt to explode and the U.S. will be all probability start the slide to become like Greece. So the smart people are buying precious metals ahead of the very probable QE3.

It shouldn't end there for Survivalist. Everything will go up in price,... excepting your pay checks. The smart idea is to procure now what you can, because as the interest rates rise, the beginning of the dollar collapse begins. Scary times my friends. They will likely become much more scary in early 2012.

I am not advocating going into debt to purchase vehicles or property at the current low interest rates, although I know a couple people who are rationalizing that they would rather have new, reliable vehicles for a Bug Out
than to try and procure one when the interest rates are higher and the dollar buys less.  I'm not going to do that.  I'll continue on the same rate, maybe just step it up a notch, on procuring long stay food items and perhaps more Silver. 

2012 is going to be ugly.  Be prepared.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Second Recession - Are We Going to See Riots then Economic Collapse?

Paraphrasing the article, "Second Recession in he U.S. Could Be Worse", from the New York Times,.....their view is that the second recession (are we out of the first yet?) could be extremely painful and may not be recoverable.

Glenn Beck is predicting riots in the streets. And he is pretty damn accurate. We are seeing riots in England right now, and not just from the Police killing a man in an attempted arrest,...what fueled the riots is the general feelings by the "have nots" that they are getting the "short end of the stick".  They like alot of us in the U.S. are tired of their government  running this country into the ground.

Nowhere will this be larger issue if the high density population groups in the U.S. can't get food anymore either due to escalating prices or lack of availability....or fuel,......or really any commodity necessary for life or just plain survival.

We have seen two consecutive days of giant losses on the Stock Market.  Over 500 point on Friday 5 August, then over 600 points on Monday 8 August. What is going to happen if the Stock Market goes into free fall?

If the economy falls back into recession, as many economists are now warning, the bloodletting could be a lot more painful than the last time around.  “It would be disastrous if we entered into a recession at this stage, given that we haven’t yet made up for the last recession,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics. And this is the good news. This is an understatement.

Anxiety and uncertainty have increased in the last few days after the decision by Standard and Poor’s to downgrade the country’s credit rating and as Europe continues its desperate attempt to stem its debt crisis. This is going to force the U.S. to execute entitlement reform, leaving millions without, or worse yet, have their credit dry up, effect becoming bankrupt.

We have had a population in the work force grow by 3% in the last four years, but jobs have declined, putting an extremely large number of people out of work and on some sort of welfare.  What happens when the Government either begfins entitlement reform or just goes plain bankrupt and people have no choice really but to take what they need. 
We are very lucky that  fuel prices and interest rates have remained comparitively low, but that just cannot last for very much longer and the decline will become much more rapid.

Think about what you are going to do once food cannot be obtained, due to either high prices or unavailability.   Where are the most likely places for riots to begin?  Where will they migrate to?  Speaking of migration, are you are a natural refugee route?   How is your OPSEC?  How many people know you stock food and supplies?  Are you tracking the indicators of this potenial collapse?

As I post this the morning of Tuesday August 9th, I have no idea what will happen today, but you can be damn sure I'll have both the Television and radio on at work, as well as surf through revelent sites when I have the time,...and I will make the time.  This week may very well be critical.     

New York Times article:

Sunday, August 7, 2011

SHTF: Argentinian example of Economic Collapse

This post and topic jumped to the top of our heap because of the recent downgrading of the U.S. credit worthiness and the bad economic forecast that presents to Americans. There is an interesting interview with Mr. Fernando Aguirre who was a first hand witness of Argentinian Economic and Currency Collapse in the Fall of 2001, from which the events in the U.S. are mirroring those of what Mr Aguirre experienced.  He  is the author of "Surviving the Economic Collapse", go to the website listed at the bottom of this post hear Fernando tells chilling stories of bank closures, life savings lost, & starving people slaughtering cattle on public roads just to survive.

What will be telling is how the markets, first in Japan as they open much earlier than our (around 6:00 pm Sunday Eastern Standard Time) and the direction the U.S. Markets take after that on Monday morning,....but back to Aguirre and his lessons from Argentina.       

Aguirre tells of the currency value deflation; massive unemployment and percent of population in poverty escalating;...or pretty much where we are at now here in the U.S........

.........followed by massive attempts by the Argentinian population to withdrawal money or otherwise "cash hoarding" and the immediate black market exchanging of Argentinian currency to U.S. Dollars; then the government attempts to control money leaving the banks and limit banks failing buy laws on withdrawals limits.  And all along the government telling lies to the people, probably justifying it by the rationale of minimizing chaos, riots and violence. 

If you are not one of the fortunate people who are prepared including holding physical Gold and Silver, what currency are you planning to exchange dollars for?????

Aguirre Interview on Contrary Investors Cafe