The Mayan End of the World Prediction in the News Again

Headline: Mexico acknowledges 2nd Mayan reference to 2012. UrbanMan still gets an occasional e-mail or comment from readers who are transfixed on the possibility not from man made collapse but from pre-destined collapse as interpreted by the Mayan Calendar and other dooms day predictors. I subscribe to the theory of self determination, be it good or bad. If we didn't have free will and everything was pre-determined, then what the hell are doing?

Anyway, an article by Mark Stevenson of the Associated Press details another Mexican archaeology find backing up the Mayan Calendar prediction that the apocalypse would occur in 2012.

While Mexico's archaeology institute downplays these theories that the ancient Mayas predicted the apocalypse in 2012, they did acknowledge that a second reference to the date exists on a carved fragment recently found at a southern Mexico ruin site.

The "Comalcalco Brick," as the second fragment is known, has been discussed by experts in some online forums. Many still doubt that it is a definite reference to Dec. 21, 2012 or Dec. 23, 2012, the dates cited by proponents of the theory as the possible end of the world. Given the strength of Internet rumors about impending disaster in 2012, the institute is organizing a special round table of 60 Mayan experts next week at the archaeological site of Palenque, in southern Mexico, to "dispel some of the doubts about the end of one era and the beginning of another, in the Mayan Long Count calendar."

No matter what your beliefs are,....Mayan predicted end of the World; Socio-Economic Collapse; Foreign attack induced collapse,....it still pays to be prepared in some form or function,...again: planning, security, food and shelter all need to be considered to have a reasonable chance of survival during hard times, be it from the dollar collapse, a Mayan Boogeyman or from fire breathing dragons.

More on Solo Survival

Prepper Website left a new comment on the post "Planning to Survive Alone",.......:When I think of someone going solo, I think of staying fast and mobile. I would think that the hope would be, in a SHTF situation, to stay low until some sort of normalcy came back to society, then join the living. I picture a heavily forested area with plenty of moving room and maybe several areas to hold up in...some caches along the way etc...."

UrbanMan's reply: Prepper, I agree - fast and mobile,.....or, stationary and hidden in a well stocked safe location. About anyone with decent survival training and a modicum of preparation can survive. I've done that in small increments for training. Ten days with nothing other than a fixed blade knife, 2 one quart Army canteens and one canteen cup, a small survival kit with snare wire, para cord, matches, button compass, a lightweight poncho and a map. It sucked. I lost about ten pounds. Learned much about isolation and being bored as well. And as stoic and tough as we think we may be, humans are not made for isolation.

I think the idea is to not only survive but live with some decent standard of living. The only way to do that is to have planned ahead, prepared well, and most likely be part of a larger survival group.

I'm not advocating some type of "survival commune" living, but planning and preparing with an alike minded group of individuals and families for mutual support.

Caches are always a good idea. To support the Bug Out plan, either at or near the safe location, or along the way supporting long range movements. I have written several posts on caches. And my student Jim (from Survival Chronicles of Jim) emplaced a couple near his family cabin which is his Bug Out location.

I hope not, but cannot help but think there are people out there thinking that if a severe enough collapse comes, they will survive on their own in a minimalist fashion.  Great to have those skills, but better yet to be prepare across the spectrum of needs and do so with a focused plan and a team.     

Backyard Homestead

If you are not on Organic Gardening e-mail list, then you should think about getting on it. This site occasionally offers good deals on home gardening products and information.

Organic Gardening

The last Organic Gardening flyer, advertising the Backyard Homestead book, stated that even if you live in an apartment, you can start growing at least some of the food you eat and reap with every harvest — saving money ... boosting health ... savoring irresistibly fresh flavors ... conserving energy ... and have loads of fun. And I think also learning a thing or two and be much better prepared for a Collapse where these skills will come in handy.

Not only a source for growing the vegetables and fruits, Organic Gardening's Backyard Homestead also covers keep bees, raise chickens, goats, or even cows. As well as how to cook, preserve, cure, brew, or pickle the fruits you grow.

Some of the subject material in this new book, also include: 13 container-loving plants; Best ways to water for sweeter strawberries; Why you should never soak bean seeds before planting; How to tell if a tomato plant is hungry; Why your fruit tree needs a mate and what to do without one; Complete herb-growing guide from basil to watercress; How to tell if an egg is fresh; and, Beekeeping the easy way.

Another key element of gardening is crop rotation and learning how to properly do so is a great way to get more variety and bounty out of even the smallest gardens, while keeping in more soil nutrients. But successful rotation means planting the right crops in the right order — and making sure you don't follow certain plants with their "arch enemies." Backyard Homestead covers fail-proof planting plan for crop rotations.

Free Trial issue of Organic Gardening and a Garden Planner, click here.

Home gardening in preparation for a SHTF scenario has taken on a new importance with the degradation of the U.S. farming capability. The U.S. used to feed the world. Now we would have a hard time, absent of an exports ban, to feed ourselves. Part of the problem is the high start up and maintenance costs of commercial farming. Read this post from the Greenhorns Blog.

Greenhorns Blog/high costs of farming/

Recession and Revolution

A reader of UrbanSurvivalSkills.com sent us this article written by well known author Seth Godin, whose book Tribes is a good read for the average urban or suburban survival prepper to provide some concepts and ideas about leading, connecting and creating movements, such as building a survival network or team in case of SHTF.

Anyway, Seth Godin's article below, is entitled "The Forever Recession (and the Coming Revolution)" is a good read for all Survivalists.

By Seth Godin

There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There's plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of "good factory jobs" and systemic unemployment--I fear that this recession is here forever.

Why do we believe that jobs where we are paid really good money to do work that can be systemized, written in a manual and/or exported are going to come back ever? The internet has squeezed inefficiencies out of many systems, and the ability to move work around, coordinate activity and digitize data all combine to eliminate a wide swath of the jobs the industrial age created.

There's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win...

Factories were at the center of the industrial age. Buildings where workers came together to efficiently craft cars, pottery, insurance policies and organ transplants--these are job-centric activities, places where local inefficiencies are trumped by the gains from mass production and interchangeable parts. If local labor costs the industrialist more, he has to pay it, because what choice does he have?

No longer. If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that's what's going to happen.

It was the inefficiency caused by geography that permitted local workers to earn a better wage, and it was the inefficiency of imperfect communication that allowed companies to charge higher prices.

The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.

This represents a significant discontinuity, a life-changing disappointment for hard-working people who are hoping for stability but are unlikely to get it. It's a recession, the recession of a hundred years of the growth of the industrial complex.

I'm not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn't look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.

Stressful? Of course it is. No one is trained in how to do this, in how to initiate, to visualize, to solve interesting problems and then deliver. Some see the new work as a hodgepodge of little projects, a pale imitation of a 'real' job. Others realize that this is a platform for a kind of art, a far more level playing field in which owning a factory isn't a birthright for a tiny minority but something that hundreds of millions of people have the chance to do.

Gears are going to be shifted regardless. In one direction is lowered expectations and plenty of burger flipping. In the other is a race to the top, in which individuals who are awaiting instructions begin to give them instead.

The future feels a lot more like marketing--it's impromptu, it's based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people--and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.

This means we may need to change our expectations, change our training and change how we engage with the future. Still, it's better than fighting for a status quo that is no longer. The good news is clear: every forever recession is followed by a lifetime of growth from the next thing...

Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.

This revolution is at least as big as the last one, and the last one changed everything.

Is Economic Collapse Close at Hand?

Yesterday the Stock Market took a 512 point downturn. Today will be very telling as to just how close we are to a fast slide of economic collapse.

The rest of the World's view of the U.S. economy is basically that the inmayes are running the asylum. What happens here effects the rest of the World since the U.S. dollar is depending heavily on on the dollar for it's stability and status as the World's reserve currency. Both the stability and status are close of going away. So that foundation has been rocked with the U.S. Government expanding the limit of borrowing and the resultant show of a lack of confidence from Wall Street and many other Countries. What that means to use is the potential for massive inflation and hence a depression.

Add to the fact that about 25% of personal income is coming directly from the government in the form of entitlements, such as Disability pay, Social Security, Food Stamps, Jobless Benefits which are all funded by the U.S. Government which is borrowing heavily to pay for these entitlements.

By the end of this year, many of those dollars that fund entitlements are going to disappear,..some by the expiration of these benefits and some because the lack of moeny to pay for them.

Add QE3, where the Government prints more money, which in turn devalues the existing money supply, and we have a SHTF - Economic Collapse scenario on the tipping point.

Moody Analytics predicts a weakened economy coming due to lack of job growth;.....the Labor Department predicts smaller job growth;.....continued massive foreclosures will drive more people in banckruptcy and shorten the available money supply from lenders;.....the Federal extension of jobles benefits will expire soon placing many more people desperate for a way to feed their families and pay basic bills.

The outlook is not good. If you have never kept track of all the economic and political factors that would influence a collapse, now is the time to start. It is very likely that we are at the tipping point to a rapid slide towards a depression and then a partial or total economic collapse.

I would suggest to be leaning forward. Maybe finalize your last minute preparations. Ensure you have some ready cash for the chaotic one day where it will be apparent and you may need to be prepared to procurement whatever you are not willing to procurement today.

Post SHTF Disease/Healthcare Medical Planning

We received the following comment from a reader,....."I have three kids with insulin-dependent diabetes. In an ice chest, two 2-liter bottles of frozen tap-water will go 2 days without melting. Reserve an area of a open-top, chest-type, freezer to keep as many 2-liter ice bottles as is possible. These provide thermal-capacitance to the chest. In colonial days, ponds would be cut-up in winter -- WHAT?! -- In Northern states ponds could have a 3-ft thickness of ice. These huge slabs of ice would be mule-teamed into underground (giant root-cellars) keeps that stayed at around 55 deg F. Large amounts (actually MASSIVE) amounts of straw would be packed between these huge slabs of ice. Ice could be kept for months like this. With our modern forms of insulation, we can store small items for a long time -- especially if we intermittently get power or have a generator. Regular insulin will keep for a year or better, but ONLY if properly cooled (not frozen). Manufacturers of insulin used to keep a 6 month supply of insulin in powder form -- which could then be re-constituted. They will not sell insulin in powder form. "

UrbanMan's comments::  No doubt the reader with insulin dependent children has read "One Second After", which incidentally just came out in paper back.  This fictional account of survival after a EMP attack does not end well for insulin dependent people in the story.  This is a challenge I am fortunate enough not to have.  It is hard enough to plan for probable routine medical needs and emergency medical situations without having to stock and properly store vital medications for pre-existing diseases or conditions. 

I know of a gent who has a family member in need of home dialysis 3 to 4 times weeks.  Apparently this is through a semi-permanent tube into the body.  This gent's challenge is to procure enough dialysis supplies for a year with the intent at the six month mark to extend the supply by reducing the procedure which in turn would create a bed ridden patient. 

Very tough circumstances to work a solution for.   It seems for the insulin the only solution would be to procure years of supplies and develop a SHTF - Collapse proof cold storage capability.  Which may have to combine cold weather, underground and limited power solutions to work. 

Had anybody out there developed a solution for post STHF storage of vital medications? 

SHTF - Financial Armageddon with the Collapsing Economy

Very bad times we are living in now. The collapse of the whole financial system may be just a short few weeks or a couple of months ahead. Consider the National Debt,...a political football and economic anvil all the same. If the Government doesn’t work a miracle and come to an agreement on how to proceed, then the inaction will bankrupt this country, driving the value of the dollar down, driving fuel and commodities prices up and very possibility lead to riots in the streets. Yes, we are facing financial SHTF and the question is how are we going to Survive the Collapse.

Even if the Government comes to some sort of arrangement in any case increasing the Debt limit, the Country is screwed. The Fed, acting separate from the government will print more money.....this would be QE 3 – more paper fiat currency to flood the market and deflating the value of the dollar.

If the Government cuts spending,..imagine that concept,....the cuts will have to come at least partially from entitlements which would place more people in the have not column.

Just look at Gold and Silver: Gold has recently hit record highs, probably staying above $ 1,580 an ounce for the short term before going up,....and up. Two years ago, the silver/gold ratio was above 83, with gold selling at $804.60 and silver at $9.64. Last month it was 43.04!

The bailout of Greece will reduce the availability of European Nations to buy U.S. Debt. We'll soon see a distressed and broke Federal Government trying to bail out a couple of our failed States,...California and Illinois comes to mind as both drive up taxes in a pathetic attempt to generate revenue only to drive an average of 5 businesses a week out of their respective state.

Experts in the Economy are saying that housing prices are going to decline another 20%!! And that we are, for the very least, in for a 4 to 5 year recession which are going to make times very tough for at least 100 million Americans.

Have you wondered why the last International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was removed and attacked so vicious and swiftly? Wondering why Timothy Geithner is about to leave his position shortly?

In the past week, Cisco, Lockheed Martin and Borders announced a combined 23,000 in job cuts. Meanwhile, state and local governments have cut 142,000 jobs this year. Whats going to happen when the Federal Government cannot pay for the massive amount of employees they have hired? Another 30,000 to 60,000 people on the street at once!

The common folk know the deal and it is bad. Here are just a few quotes I have from people who have been contacting me:

“The SHTF is coming. I'm have been taking money out of my 401K and buying something real and useful with it, rather than leave it there and have to load it in a wheel-barrow to buy a loaf of bread after the dollar collapses. Government causes inflation and uses it to reduce their debt in terms of buying power."

"Bernanke's agenda is that the dollar MUST be destroyed. Everything he does is toward that end."

"There has never been in a situation in my lifetime where a guy (President Obama) increases the debt by 40%, and GDP growth is on the way down, use of Food Stamps are up exponentially, millions more are unemployed -- and to accomplish this we spent $4 trillion of money we had to borrow. Way past time to prepare. Should have did it by now. The time now is to seek cover."

”I quit my job; took what I could out my 401K plan and moved the family to my in-laws farm. I am currently waiting it out. I’d like nothing more than to be here a year from now and have to move back to the city to get a job, but if not, then so be it, we’re ready.”

”Thanks for your site. Good interesting look at survival needs against the coming collapse. I took all of my savings out of the bank, bought a little silver, a bunch of food, sold my luxury sedan (eliminating a payment and bought a used truck). Now learning to grow my food. The question is not if the Shit Will Hit The Fan, it is when.”

Well, looks to me like many people thinking we are not going to have a successful conclusion to our country’s economic woes.

SHTF Plan: Surviving with Ramen and a Gun

Received this question from Anonymous: ”Hey UrbanMan, I have stockpiled twelve cases of ramen, several bags of jerky, about 30 lbs of rice and a smaller amount of pinto beans and I have my ruger mini-14 which has never failed me. I have enough camping gear in case I have to rough it or move. I don’t have a gas mask yet. What else do you think I need to have?”

UrbanMan’s comments: That’s a hard question to answer. First of all you have to have an idea of the threats; then develop a plan to reduce those risks; then procure equipment and supplies to enable the plan. Ramen, rice, beef jerky and beans are all a good start to having one material aspect of a Surviving Armageddon plan,....meaning food,....but shelter, protection and water are all very necessary also.

Survival is a team sport, ...are you part of a larger element?.....maybe your family, friends, relatives and/or neighbors? If everyone prepared alike? Is your home going to a magnet for the unprepared following the beginning of a collapse? What about medical supplies and medications?,....have enough of that?

Do you have any precious metals in a form to barter to buy with such as Silver rounds or Gold coins?

Is the Mini-14 your only survival weapon? What about other firearms for the rest of your family or Survival Team to use. Protection and security is a 24/7 endeavor and this takes many people to do this and patrol and protect the group and the survival location.

If you are buying survival food commercially,...whatever you can afford, when you can afford it,..consider canned soup, dried meals such as mac and cheese, rice dishes,.....consider jars of nuts. I recently bought sixteen large jars of nuts at a wholesale nut factory for $80. I am basing my economic collapse survival food on much more than pantry items, although they are very necessary but primary as a ready food supply. I am stocking dehydrated commercial foods, Main Stay Survival bars, and some large bulk rice, beans, pasta, etc.

However, the big points I want to make with you is that you have to have a team and the team needs to focused on a common goals. You should have a plan and work towards the material procurement and operational readiness of that plan. That plan should include a Bug Out sequel. No matter how secure you feel in your main Bug In survival location,...have a Bug Out plan and it would be best to Bug Out to a secure, prepared site. Hope this makes sense and hope it helps. Urban Man.

Survival Planning - More Debate on Having or Not Having Precious Metals

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post Survival Planning - The Argument Against Precious Metals: "Let me explain why "profit" entered into the discussion of buying silver or gold. I held a substantial amount of gold and silver for about 22 years. I did finally sell it at a profit and I'm happy I did. Had I invested it during those "go-go" years I would have about four times as much money from that investment. I don't care if you are rich or poor having four times as much money to prepare for bad times is, well it's four times better then what ever you have. Until you have held your gold and silver for 22 years with no chance to sell it at a profit or even break even then you do not know about the second thoughts and self doubts.”

“During the entire time I held that gold and silver I NEVER had a year’s supply of food. Today I have a lot of food and a lot of other preps but no gold and silver. Ask me if I believe I am better prepared today or when I had 150 pounds of precious metal in safe deposit boxes!!! Now, I believe in PM's and if things get really bad I am willing to trade some food for junk silver, silver rounds and gold. I am not willing to buy another 150 lbs of PMs and wait another 22 years to get my money back. At some point in the future things will get better (I hope! They could get so bad we are all dead). But if things get better it is likely all of you who invested in PMs will get the opportunity I had and that is to hold your PMs for years and years without any hope of ever getting all your money back.”

UrbanMan replies: Okay “Mr. Anonymous I don’t believe in PM’s”, your point is taken and certainly valid. My plan is to have PM’s pre-need, meaning I am holding mostly Silver, junk and bullion, in case the dollar collapses and I need to buy something when fiat currency is not accepted.

I am not holding such a vast amount as to put a burden on me if I have to execute an emergency Bug Out.

At some point we preppers prioritize our procurement and readiness, however I am comfortable with the amount and types of food I have put away; the type of firearms and amounts of ammunition I own; and the general other preps I have undertaken.

I just think we are looking at PM’s from different perspectives: You - as a valid or invalid investment; and me - as a small part, but a necessary component of an overall SHTF insurance plan. I hope this is all for nothing,...I hope to pass my silver bullion, silver coins I have compiled for silver melt value and the tiny amount of gold I have onto my family decades from now.

Urban Survival Firearms - More Comment on Survival Guns

Anonymous sent the following comment about Lever Guns vice Assault Rifles: ” Over the course of a few weeks I have read a number of posts here about weapons. I have most examples mentioned in my gun safes, yet as a non-threatening and effective "Urban Assault Rifle" my Henry in 44 mag combines a short range, hard hitting cartridge with adequate firepower, with a non-threatening appearance. I do not believe that you must prepare for combat when SHTF, You must (however) be prepared to move, defend you and yours and remain as stealthy as possible until you reach your safe location or button down your home. After that, out will come my M-14, AR and AK with all mags loaded and ready to go. For quick emergency situations I believe not having to carry multiple magazines with their attendant bulk could be an advantage in quick, quiet movement. TTFN.”

UrbanMan’s reply: While I am not usually walking or driving around with a M-4 carbine and assault vest in my backseat, I think I am prepared or as prepared as I am willing to be, protection wise, on a daily basis,....but that changes as the situation changes. As my routine, tasks or destinations change and as the situation changes, I re-assess and make the necessary changes in my preparation level.

At home my standard readiness is several loaded handguns and flashlights situated around the house and a double barreled 12 gauge shotgun near the bed. I have my M-4’s and other guns in the next room, in gun safes. In each gun safe are ammunition cans. In the case of the M-4 “ready can”, I have 600 rounds of ammunition and six empty 20 round P-Mags as well as a 30 round H&K steel magazine partially loaded with 10 rounds.

I have boxes of ammunition in the safe for each of the guns I have there, which incidentally include some lever guns – they just are neat guns aren’t they?

Changes I also make are my protocols based on where I am going, the current situation and just my general “spidy sense”. These protocols include communications and no-communications plan with the family and a few selective friends; it includes what other kit I am putting in my vehicle; the routes I take on routine and non-routine errands or general travel.

Recently I made a trip via vehicle that was about 700 miles each way. I rented a car and put two (empty) 2.5 gallon gas cans in the trunk and my siphon kit – just in case. I put my M-4 and a chest rig in a bag in the back seat with a 5.11 Rush 24 bag that is one of my Bug Out bags. I also carried a Glock 19 and eight 1 ounce silver rounds. I left a route plan with my family and e-mailed it to two friends. Cell phone was fully charged, as it would be for the return drive. I was leaving on a Thursday morning and coming back on a Sunday and I just wanted to be prepared in case any financial collapse, self –induced or caused by outside entities, occurring on the Friday which is a prime day for these events to happen.

If I got stranded and had to start moving on foot, I would call family and friends and establish contact times so I could turn my cell phone off and conserve battery time as I moved.

So I guess have a slightly different point of view. I don’t think I’m ultra paranoid it’s just from my experience which includes losing a couple of close friends to hostile fire. I think a small amount of planning and preparation goes along way. So I don’t phrase my preps as preparing for “combat”,……am I prepared for what I assess the situation requires and to the extent I am comfortable with.
And lever guns, or anything else that isn't magazine fed or of a sufficient caliber are not for the highest threat environments.