U.S. Military Prepares for Global Unrest Amid Climate Fears

Op-Editorial piece featured on-line, written by Marlene Cimons of Climate Nexus for LiveScience, and brought to my attention by a reader who stated that "if the military is planning on contingencies missions for global warning chaos, surely they have to be planning contingencies for economic collapse, martial law, etc, etc." Well, James you are right about the military having contingency plans for about everything. These are called OPLANS. Doesn't mean the military wants to execute these plans, just being prepared.


Though Earth's shifting climate evokes many images, civil unrest usually isn't one of them. Yet, a warming planet could have a profound impact on national security, both in the United States and abroad. This time, the threat isn't from terrorism or a single enemy, but from natural disasters occurring on an unprecedented scale.

Acts of nature fueled by a warming climate — for example, floods and prolonged drought — may lead to disrupted migration, food and water shortages, and other public health crises — which, in turn, could prompt civil and political instability. Those impacts would pose a particularly profound threat for people in countries with fragile governments, including key U.S. strategic interests.

This threat has Pentagon officials worried enough to speak out and to invest in research to better understand the relationships among conflict, socioeconomic conditions and climate. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) plans to use the data to predict future threats and develop ways to cope with them.

Under its highly selective Minerva social-science program, the DOD has awarded researchers at the University of Maryland a three-year, $1.9 million grant to develop models that will help policymakers anticipate what could happen to societies under a range of potential climate-change scenarios.

"It's likely that physical and economic disruptions resulting from climate change could heighten tensions in sensitive areas of the world," said Elisabeth Gilmore, an assistant professor at the University of Maryland's school of public policy and the study's lead researcher. "The environmental changes from climate change can have important effects on our well-being and security. We need to better understand these interactions."

Her team plans to use statistical models and case studies to identify the best predictors of climate-related conflict, and then use the data and a novel simulation method to generate forecasts of conflict over a range of socioeconomic and climate-change scenarios. Finally, the project will identify a range of military and policy interventions that could reduce the occurrence of climate-related civil conflict.

The Pentagon has been concerned about the national security implications of climate change for quite some time, and military officials have continued to speak out about them.

For example, Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command, repeatedly has warned of the national security dangers of climate change. In fact, earlier this year, he said global warming was "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."

In 2007, CNA, a Pentagon-funded think tank that conducts in-depth research and analysis, released a report from a panel of retired senior military officers and national security experts who predicted that extreme weather events prompted by climate shifts could disrupt the U.S. way of life and cause already weak governments to fall, particularly in many Asian, African and Middle Eastern nations where marginal living standards already exist.

Moreover, the report warned that the United States may find itself drawn into these situations to help provide stability before conditions worsen, before they are exploited by extremists or after a conflict has begun. Even stable governments, like the United States' and those of nations in Europe, could be pressured to take in large numbers of immigrants and refugees as drought increases and food production dwindles in Latin America and Africa, the report added.

Some researchers have suggested that framing climate change as a threat to national security and public health, rather than to the environment, might make the issue more relevant and meaningful to many conservative Americans and others who tend to deny or dismiss it. But, surprisingly, recent research published in Climatic Change by Teresa Myers of George Mason University and her colleagues indicated that such seems to make those individuals angry.

The researchers weren't sure why this approach elicited an angry response, but they wonder whether the climate-change deniers resented an attempt to connect national security — an issue they care about — with climate change, an issue they tend to dismiss. Or, they may have been upset with the researchers for presenting claims about global warming and national security they did not think were authentic or credible.

Instead, perhaps the doubters should read the words of retired U.S. Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan, chairman of CNA's military advisory board and the U.S. Army's former chief of staff. He seems to believe that enough scientific evidence of climate change's impact exists to be sobering — and that it deserves the U.S. government's attention.

"We seem to be standing by —and, frankly, asking — for perfectness in science,"' Sullivan wrote in the 2007 CNA report. "People are saying they want to be convinced, perfectly. They want to know the climate-science projections with 100 percent certainty. Well, we know a great deal, and even with that, there is still uncertainty. But the trend line is very clear. We never have 100 percent certainty. We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That's something we know. You have to act with incomplete information. You have to act based on the trend line. You have to act on your intuition sometimes."

Survival Ammo and Guns

I received this e-mail from a reader: "I am 63 year old man, widower, with my child and grandchildren living across the country, so I am pretty much by myself. I don't want to be anyone's patsy so I am getting somewhat ready for a real bad scenario where the society turns south. I live on a fixed budget but am pretty dang frugal and have stocked alot of food, mostly canned and dry goods. I'm a little short in the guns column having just a .357 magnum revolver, a 9mm handgun and a .30-06 hunting rifle. But for the life of me I can't find any ammunition. I'd like to get another rifle like an M-1A or AR-15,...I used both in Viet Nam,...but damn sure don't want to get a gun and have no ammunition for it. Do you think I absolutely need a military style rifle? Do you think the ammunition shortage will soon pass?"

UrbanMan replies:  There are indications that some ammunition supplies are coming back slowly.  I know several people that check daily if not twice daily on ammunition availability in a wide rnge of stores,..gun stores, chain sorting good stores and Wal-mart.  I say get ammo when and where you can - I would not wait for the deals.

Look for the on-line ammunition distributors such as Natchez Shooters Supply, Ammo-Man, Cheaper Than Dirt, Sportsmans Guide, even Cabelas. 

I hope you know that you can shoot .38 Special in your .357 magnum revolver.  If not, then add that to your list to look for as well.  If you can join a Civilian Marksmanship Program approved gun club, you can be a CMP member and order .30-06 ammunition directly from the CMP.  It may take 6 months or longer, but a case of ammunition being delivered by UPS one day is a nice suprise. 

Yes, I would obtain the excellent M1A1 or an AR platform if you can afford it.  You'll need more than just the gun.  A good supply of magazines - I would consider a dozen to be minimally sufficient.  Probably a magazine carrying method such as an assault vest or magazines pouches at least.  I would also consider a good 12 gauge pump shotgun as well   That would complete a good survival-SHTF-collapse battery of firearms in my mind.

Some people are creating innovative ways to track and find ammunition supplies.  One such site is Ammo-can.net  .  There is a new web application that is making finding local sources of ammo easier during the current ammo shortage.  The developer say's "Contrary to popular belief, many retailers are getting ammo shipments on a regular basis right now. It’s just that ammo is selling approximately 30-50 times faster than it was prior to December, so at any given time shelves are likely to be empty.

If you have a lot of time on your hands you can travel to your local Wal Mart or other retailer everyday and check their stock and hope you get lucky.  Ammo-can.net has near real time availability of ammo for most Wal Mart stores. It doesn’t look like the website is 100% perfect yet, but it does seem to work. According to the site, my local Wal Mart had limited stock of 9mm Winchester ammo. I went right down to the store and low and behold, there was a box of 9mm.

Note, you may have to hit the Force Check link to get the most accurate stock levels. After you run the Force Check you have to wait about one minute for the page to refresh. "

6 Facts that Foretell the Slide Into A Economic Collapse

Statistics from Kyle Becker on the Independent Journal Review, in an article titled "6 Economic Stats That Will Make You Wanna Cry." Copy and send these to your friends who do not think things are bad enough to have a SHTF plan. Or at least try and figure out how are you going to pay bills and buy food once the food crisis hits, government goes broke, hyper inflation sets in, and this country generally slides into the third world status that we seem to be heading for.

1. 101 Million Food Aid Recipients

"The number of Americans receiving subsidized food assistance from the federal government has risen to 101 million, representing roughly a third of the U.S. population.... That means the number of Americans receiving food assistance has surpassed the number of private sector workers in the U.S.." [CNS News, July 7th, 2013]

2. 54 Straight Months of 7.5% Unemployment or Above

"Since January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the United States has seen 54 straight months with the unemployment rate at 7.5 percent or higher, which is the longest stretch of unemployment at or above that rate since 1948"... [CNS News, July 5th. 2013]

3. Long-Term Unemployment

"Of the 11.8 million jobless Americans in June, 4.3 million had been out of work six months or longer. There were 1 million fewer long-term jobless than last year, but their ranks remain way above the previous high-water mark of 2.8 million in 1983." [Huffington Post, July 5th, 2013]

4. Labor Participation Rate

"The number of people not in the labor force which in March soared by a massive 663,000 to a record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work... And even worse, the labor force participation rate plunged from an already abysmal 63.5% to 63.3% - the lowest since 1979! [ZeroHedge, April 2013]

5. Disability Recipients

"The total number of people in the United States now receiving federal disability benefits hit a record 10,962,532 million in April, which exceeds the 10,815,197 people who live in the nation of Greece." [CNS News, May 2013]

6. Poverty Rate Skyrockets

Finally: "As the president began the first year of his second term, the U.S. poverty rate rose to a level not seen since the 1960s... The Census Bureau says that 50 million Americans, roughly one in six — almost 17% — are living below the poverty line... apparently 20% of the nation's children are living in poverty." [IBD, April 2013]

Bear Grylls on Survival Myths and Mistakes

Whenever the discussion about Bear Grylls comes up, people are heavily opinionated about him. I actually like his shows, but I remember it's still a show, however one could learn something from watching. While wilderness survival skills may be a secondary importance to building a survival team, stocking for SHTF and having a Bug Out plan, the benefit of such survival skills is that it can give you the confidence of being able to survive on your own with practically nothing, albeit the point of preparation is to ensure that never happens!

This is an article posted on a Yahoo travel site and also announces Grylls new television show.

Myth 1: One of the most common myths is that if your car breaks down in the desert, you should walk away and try to find help. That is not a good idea—people die because of it! Thinking it’s only a few miles to the nearest town, they’re found dead two or three miles from their car because they underestimated how brutal and tiring the desert can be.

Stay where you are, make yourself safe, and wait for rescue.

Myth 2: People think that because water is clear and free-running in a mountain stream, it’s fine to drink it. In actuality, you don’t know what’s in that stream. There could be a dead animal upriver!

Clear, clean-looking fresh water isn’t necessarily safe to drink. You should always boil water before you drink it to make sure you don’t get giardiasis, which can make you throw up or give you diarrhea. Clear water isn’t necessarily clean water, and beware of mountain streams.

Myth 3: Another common myth is that if you’re lost for any length of time, you’ve got to find food. That really isn’t true, and you can actually survive for weeks and weeks without it.

Your priorities should be finding shelter and water, especially since in most places you’ll be dead in three days without water. Eating food will also dehydrate you faster, so focus on getting water before food.

ROOKIE MISTAKES

I made my first rookie mistake was when I was about 8. I was with my dad in the mountains when a storm came down, and we thought, “Oh, we know the way back down the mountain, we’ll just head down.” But we couldn’t see where we were going and we ended up heading the wrong way.

We spent the whole night wandering around, absolutely exhausted, disoriented, and very cold.Finally, by good fortune, we stumbled across a little trail and eventually found a way back. The lesson there is if there’s a blizzard, don’t try and beat it. Concentrate on making yourself safe and getting out of the wind; find shelter however you can. It’s the same in a desert sandstorm. People push on in sandstorms thinking they can find a way out when in reality they’re never going to beat it and should focus on staying sheltered and safe.

One of the biggest mistakes I see is when people with egos write checks their bodies can’t cash. A classic example is when people get summit fever. They get close to a mountain and when they run out of time and energy, they push on even when the signs are saying they should turn back. They end up stuck in the mountain in the dark or dropping off the mountain the wrong way because they get too tired. Summit fever is a very dangerous problem; it kills people on mountains because they start breaking their own rules.

Often, people make a rookie mistake by going off on their own on what they think is a simple hike, and they don’t tell anyone where they’re going or when they’ll be back. Even a nice, easy hike can turn very ugly if you get lost or twist an ankle and no one knows you’re missing or where to look for you. No matter how modest the trek, tell people where you’re going and when you’re due back. That way, you know that there will be help coming if you don’t return.

(Photo: Paul Drinkwater/NBC)Another dangerous rookie mistake is when people underestimate how debilitating altitude and the effects of altitude sickness can be. Everything is worse and more extreme at high altitude; you’re fighting dehydration, altitude sickness, the cold, and the wind. An action that’s totally straightforward to perform at sea level can become impossible at high altitude. High up in the mountains I’ve seen people—myself included—reduced to crawling on their hands and knees along something you’d just run up at sea level. Survival and even simple actions become much harder at high altitudes.

Sometimes, though, you need to break your own rules and trust your instincts. A good adventurer knows when to do that and when not to. There have been times while we’ve been filming when it was right to push on through a storm, and then there have been times when it seemed right to follow a steep mountain ravine down a path and it actually turned out to be pretty precarious and dangerous.

You have to give yourself a large margin of error, at least in the wild. You’ve got to anticipate the worst, and consider that if you or someone else gets injured you need to be able to still carry out your decision. And take your time to make that decision, because the repercussions of your choices are ones that you’ll be living with for a long time.

Ultimately, though, the best way to learn survival methods comes from seeing and doing. And if you don’t want to go through the experience yourself, you can see rookies learn how to survive by trial and error and deal with the consequences of their mistakes by watching “Get Out Alive with Bear Grylls” on NBC, Monday nights at 9.

Not Prepared: 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming

From an article sent to me, written by Michael Synder, called - Not Prepared: 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse

The vast majority of Americans are going to be absolutely blindsided by what is coming.  They don’t understand how our financial system works, they don’t understand how vulnerable it is, and most of them blindly trust that our leaders know exactly what they are doing and that they will be able to fix our problems. As a result, most Americans are simply not prepared for the massive storm that is heading our way.

Most American families are living paycheck to paycheck, most of them are not storing up emergency food and supplies, and only a very small percentage of them are buying gold and silver for investment purposes. They seem to have forgotten what happened back in 2008. When the financial markets crashed, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Because most of them were living on the financial edge, millions of them also lost their homes. Unfortunately, most Americans seem convinced that it will not happen again. Right now we seem to be living in a “hope bubble” and people have become very complacent.

For a while there, being a “prepper” was very trendy, but now concern about a coming economic crisis seems to have subsided. What a tragic mistake. As I pointed out yesterday, our entire financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme, and there are already signs that our financial markets are about to implode once again. Those that have not made any preparations for what is coming are going to regret it bitterly. The following are 17 signs that most Americans will be wiped out by the coming collapse…

#1 According to a survey that was just released, 76 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. But most Americans are acting as if their jobs will always be there. But the truth is that mass layoffs can occur at any time. In fact, it just happened at one of the largest law firms in New York City.

#2 27 percent of all Americans do not have even a single penny saved up.

#3 46 percent of all Americans have $800 or less saved up.

#4 Less than one out of every four Americans has enough money stored away to cover six months of expenses.

#5 Wages continue to fall even as the cost of living continues to go up. Today, the average income for the bottom 90 percent of all income earners in America is just $31,244. An increasing percentage of American families are just trying to find a way to survive from month to month.

#6 62 percent of all middle class Americans say that they have had to reduce household spending over the past year.

#7 Small business is becoming an endangered species in America. In fact, only about 7 percent of all non-farm workers in the United States are self-employed at this point. That means that the vast majority of Americans are depending on someone else to provide them with an income. But what is going to happen as those jobs disappear?

#8 In 1989, the debt to income ratio of the average American family was about 58 percent. Today it is up to 154 percent.

#9 Today, a higher percentage of Americans are dependent on the government than ever before. In fact, according to the U.S. Census Bureau 49 percent of all Americans live in a home that gets direct monetary benefits from the federal government. So what is going to happen when the government handout gravy train comes to an end?

#10 Back in the 1970s, about one out of every 50 Americans was on food stamps. Today, about one out of every 6.5 Americans is on food stamps.  UrbanMan's note:  I believe this figure is actually 1 in 5 Americans.

#11 It is estimated that less than 10 percent of the U.S. population owns any gold or silver for investment purposes.

#12 It has been estimated that there are approximately 3 million “preppers” in the United States. But that means that almost everyone else is not prepping.

#13 44 percent of all Americans do not have first-aid kits in their houses.

#14 48 percent of all Americans do not have any emergency supplies stored up.

#15 53 percent of all Americans do not have a 3 day supply of nonperishable food and water in their homes.

#16 One survey asked Americans how long they thought they would survive if the electrical grid went down for an extended period of time. Incredibly, 21 percent said that they would survive for less than a week, an additional 28 percent said that they would survive for less than two weeks, and nearly 75 percent said that they would be dead before the two month mark.

#17 According to a survey conducted by the Adelphi University Center for Health Innovation, 55 percent of Americans believe that the government will come to their rescue when disaster strikes.

Just because you are living a comfortable middle class lifestyle today does not mean that it will always be that way. If you doubt this, take a look at what is going on in Greece. Many formerly middle class parents in Greece have become so impoverished that they are actually dumping their children at orphanages so that they won’t starve…

Scores of children have been put in orphanages and care homes for economic reasons; one charity said 80 of the 100 children in its residential centres were there because their families can no longer provide for them.

Ten percent of Greek children are said to be at risk of hunger. Teachers talk of cancelling PE lessons because children are underfed and of seeing pupils pick through bins for food.

If the U.S. economy crashes and you lose your job, how will you and your family survive?UrbanMan's note:  Many Military Civilian worker are asking themselves this same question as sequestration has reduced their hours and pay 20%,  Next Government fiscal year is supposed to be worse.

Will you and your family end up homeless and totally dependent on the government for your survival?

Get prepared while there is still time. If you do not know how to get prepared, my article entitled “25 Things That You Should Do To Get Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse” has some basic tips, and there are dozens of excellent websites out there that teach people advanced prepping techniques for free. So there is no excuse. You can trust that Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama have everything under control, but as for me and my family we are going to prepare for the giant economic storm that is coming.

I hope that you will be getting prepared too.

UrbanMan's note:  If you are reading my site and others, then you are probably not in this group of Americans ill prepared for any emergency.  But nonetheless, this article coulds serve  to motivate you just a little further. 

The Racial Component in the Collapse

UrbanMan's Comments: A friend sent me this article by Bob Rinear commenting on a indepth article by Douglas V. Gibbs on the race problems this country still faces. If you think there will be problems upon the Travon Martin - George Zimmerman verdict, just wait until the economy tanks, or hyper-inflation sets in or a national food crisis settles,..or any number of releated catalysts to the collapse occur.

Sorry to say but a large percentage of the Black American population lives in a lower economic status in large urban areas population centers which are dependent upon a constant replenishment of food stocks and other vital commodities. These rapid, degradation of food deliveries or affordability of necessities in the hyper-inflation or currency collapse scenario will pit "have not" blacks against the "have" and even the "have not" whites simply because this will be the first, nearest, easiest and most logical target in the rage and panic.

I hope I am wrong,......last night I was on the phone with a friend who was skeptical about race wars upon an economic or other collapse. I said "Do you tell all friends and family about your preps?" He replied "No, of course not". I asked "Why Not?". He said "OPSEC, dude! You know that!" I replied, "Do you think that once they discovered your preps and you did not share that they would result to violence against you?" He said "Probably." Then I said rhetorically, "So you don't think that other ethnic groups would not use race as an excuse or motivation to take what you have?"



Race Problems By Bob Rinear

Yeah, I know. I’m supposed to stick to things that pertain to the economy and the markets. Well, I am doing just that. Because the economy just happens to be the sum total of all human exchange. Thus, when the participants of the exchange change their mindsets, moods, attitudes and beliefs, the economy changes. For example look at the coal industry. Just 30 years ago coal was seen as America’s lifeblood because we have so much of it. Then, because of an upwelling of environmentalism, coal became “bad.”

So bad our own President has said, that “anyone can open a coal company, but you’ll go out of business over the costs of my regulations”.

The attitude changed and thus so did a large portion of the economy. Coal companies didn’t go from 75 dollars a share to 4.99 because they don’t have coal, or it stopped working as a fuel. They are crippled because of the “change of attitude”. Well, I’m probably going to get in trouble over the next few weeks because I’ll say some things that will get me called everything from right wing nut to racist to you name it. That’s fine, I’m never afraid of some controversy. But let’s at least be real about things… race relations in this country are worse than at any time I can remember and I’m 56 years old.

Every so often I will post an article written by my friend Douglass Gibbs. He’s a great American and even hosts a show called the Constitution Speaker, which can be heard on radio. I want to start with a piece he penned that does a great job of showing the “why” we’re in such a bad racial situation. Then I’ll follow that up in another letter with the ramifications for the economy, stocks and frankly… society.

By Douglas V. Gibbs on www.politicalpistachio.com

The media and the liberal left are coming unhinged. In their minds, since they figure they have the power to control everything, this trial against George "Creepy-Ass Cracker" Zimmerman should have been a slam-dunk. Poor little innocent Trayvon Martin, of whom President Obama says if he had a son the kid would look like Trayvon, was the victim of a mean racist attack. We are being told that Zimmerman hunted down and killed the poor child because poor, innocent Trayvon Martin was black. And now, as the wheels come off, and it is beginning to look like Zimmerman is going to walk because his story that Trayvon attacked him and his was a fight of self-defense, the Left, through politicians and the media, are inciting race riots. They want this to be the Rodney King riots, on steroids.

As the testimonies pile up, it is becoming more and more clear that Zimmerman's story is the true one, and any witness that is supposed to help the case of Trayvon Martin, is actually hurting him. The liberal left demands that George Zimmerman must be convicted as a racist "white Hispanic." The Jury is not supposed to consider the law, for why should they? The Supreme Court ignored the rule of law with the gay marriage case, so why should the jury in this case care about the rule of law? The Supreme Court ruled based on their rage against those that dare oppose the homosexual agenda, and the media demands that this jury rule in the same way. Never mind the evidence. They need to be enraged that the racist "creepy-ass cracker" dared to fight against Trayvon Martin, and kill him.

Since the liberal left is losing the case, we have to remember that it originally gained media attention just before last year's presidential election to remind the democrat voters how racist them right wing loonies are. But since now, when they hope to remind America how racist we are to protect the democrats in preparation for the 2014 midterm elections, the Left is resorting to inciting violence.

On ABC News Nightline, anchor, Dan Abrams, interviewed Sanford, Florida, police chief Cecil Smith, asking him, "If Zimmerman is found not guilty, is your office ready for that?"

The police chief responded, "I believe we have plans that will be able to deal with issues as they arise."

Abrams then came back with, "I assume the worst-case scenario, then, would be riots?"

The police chief said there was no talk of riots. "We are not talking about riots. We're talking about rallies. If people choose to come to Sanford and voice their opinions or if they want to come and rally, we welcome that. We want people to have the opportunity to express themselves."

The media is not satisfied with that. They want violence. They want blood in the streets. They want a crisis that will finish off the opposition, and enable them to report how racist America is.

Remember, the liberal left democrats have gone beyond trying to win anything. They believe they have won it all. . . well, except the House of Representatives, and that will resolved, they believe, in 2014. And to achieve the one party system they crave, they are working to eliminate the opposition, and gain greater control over the population. . . and a good, violent crisis might be just what the illegal alien in the White House needs.

Barack Obama was a community organizer. An agitator. Now, the media has learned from him, and they have become agitators too, and they are agitating for riots. What is amazing about all of this is how quickly the people forget. In 2008, when Obama was running on the messiah ticket, we were being told that he was proof we were moving beyond racism, and that if Obama was elected we would live in a postracial America. Yet, the racism has blown up, exploding. Obama has agitated everyone he considers would work well in the fight against rich white republicans. He is causing racial strife, and it is by design. He is not a great uniter, as he claimed, and he never intended to be. The goal has always been division, chaos, and violence. That is how tyranny solidifies control.

The useful idiots in the media are calling for race riots, inciting violence, because they know the Zimmerman trial is not going their way. The Left has been totally invested in Zimmerman being found guilty and heading to death row. Hell, they are even willing to settle for manslaughter, if they can get it. But now, the liberal left realizes they will likely lose the Zimmerman case.

What is being realized now is that there never was a case. The prosecution has bad witnesses on the stand, and no leg to stand on, because this case was purely political. They wanted to scare Zimmerman into a guilty plea, and he refused, and now they have no evidence to put him away. In fact, the arrest warrant is even laced with fraud.

It is like the Duke Lacrosse case all over again. The poor black dancer accused the racist rich white athletes of doing her wrong. Everyone demanded that the team be thrown out of school, and arrested. But it turned out the woman lied, and the deconstructionist claim that we are a racist nation was delayed. . .

Until the Trayvon Martin shooting.

Deconstructionists can't change a healthy America into something the Founding Fathers never intended. They have to convince all of us that America is damaged goods. If America is damaged, it must be changed, or at least that is the attitude the liberal left democrats are banking on. Remember, Obama wanted to fundamentally change this nation, but you don't fix what ain't broke, so they must convince you America is broken, tainted by widespread racism - otherwise, the democrats would be worthless, and would cease to exist. If America is great, their whole platform is worth nothing.

And if they can't get their racism claim confirmed by the courts, they will have to do it with violence in the streets.

As you can see, Doug did a splendid job of showing you exactly “why” this is all about race and NOT about the law. Next week I’m going to write about the implications of all this, and they are not good. Not at all. Stay tuned.

More Homestead Defense Planning

This is an article sent to me by a retired banker friend who is now planning on moving off the grid, using his considerable resources to get it right the first time. I spent some time on and off with him, convincing him that a retirement community adjacent to a golf course, was not necessarily the ideal Bug In location, as well as the need to upgrade his firearms. Anyway, that's for another story. Here is the article, "Beyond the Defensible Space Fire safety and the structure of your home", by Mat Stein

Matthew Stein is a design engineer, green builder, and author of two bestselling books: When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide for Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival (Chelsea Green 2011), and When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability, and Surviving the Long Emergency (Chelsea Green 2008). Stein is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he majored in Mechanical Engineering. Stein has appeared on numerous radio and television programs and is a repeat guest on Fox News, Coast-to-Coast AM, Alex Jones’ Infowars, Vince Finelli’s USA Prepares, and The Power Hour. He is an active mountain climber, serves as a guide and instructor for blind skiers, has written several articles on the subject of sustainable living, and is a guest columnist for the Huffington Post. www.whentechfails.com and www.matstein.com.

[NOTE: In light of the tragic loss of life of the brave firefighters in Arizona and for all the men and women firefighters who work to protect lives and property, we all need to make extra efforts to take steps to reduce the risk of wildfires and home fires. Our work both inside and out of our homes will not only create defensible spaces, but, just as importantly, will assist those who risk their lives to stay out of harms way. This article is adapted from When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide for Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival]

Following on the heels of 2012’s record-breaking droughts, heat waves, and fire storms, this year’s fires season is off to an earlier and more deadly/damaging start in several of the western states. If current scientific predictions of global warming prove anywhere near correct, then we can expect that devastating wildfires will become the new normal in the coming years, reaching a broader spectrum of geographical zones that previously escaped such conflagrations. Whether you are a homeowner wishing to improve the fire resistance of your current dwelling or are planning to build a new home, beyond creating a “defensible space” around your home there are a number of other actions you can take to improve the chances that your home will survive a local wildfire. These guidelines are typically applied to homes located in areas where long periods of dry weather are common, such as many of the western states. However, due to changing times, people in many areas where the threat of wildfires was previously a non-issue are now finding it to be a growing concern.

Lessons from the 1993 Laguna Fire

In October 1993, when a vicious wildfire broke out in Laguna Beach, a southern California beach town, firefighter John Henderson was called down from his home in the Sierras of northern California to fight this blaze. The combination of extremely dangerous fire conditions, brought on by three consecutive drought years coupled with 60 to 70 mph hot and dry Santa Ana winds, quickly whipped the fire into an unstoppable conflagration, burning hundreds of homes to the ground! When John rounded a corner on the Pacific Coast Highway, just north of Laguna Beach, he saw a sight that he will never forget. He and his partner watched the firestorm rush down the dry hills toward the ocean. The heat of the firestorm was so intense that, even after blowing across four lanes of pavement, it was hot enough to ignite a mile-long stretch of wooden telephone poles on the ocean side of the road. From a distance, he said they looked like a string of matchsticks stuck in the sand, igniting one after the other until there were perhaps a hundred telephone poles burning at once.

•Many if not most homes burned from the inside out when firestorm heat radiated through closed windows and slipped inside through foundation and roof vents to ignite interior curtains, rugs, etc. Double-pane windows and heavily insulated walls will slow the rate of heat penetration into interior spaces.

•The only buildings to survive the Laguna Fire had insulated walls, double-pane windows, and blocked or minimized venting. A well-insulated, well-sealed building envelope and high thermal mass will slow interior heating and ignition.

•Minimize venting, and screen all vent openings to prevent flaming embers from entering vents. Removable fire-wall vent blocks should be placed in front of foundation and roof vents during periods of extreme fire danger to keep hot air from easily penetrating the building envelope.

•One of the few Laguna homes in the path of the firestorm to survive had a 40-foot-wide strip of the green succulent “ice plant” (creating an excellent “defensible space”) and a concrete tiled roof (an exceptionally fire resistant roof). The firestorm blew right over the top of the ice plant and the house, dropped burning embers on the concrete tile roof, roasted a 10-foot-wide swath of ice plant, but failed to ignite the building’s structure.

•Stucco, cement, or earthen walls are preferred. If wood siding is desired, it should be applied over a ?-inch sheetrock fire wall for improved fire resistance. Cement-based weatherboard can look like wood but give you cement board’s superior fire resistance. Even with a stucco or cement weatherboard sheath, an underlying wood-framed wall might ignite if the firestorm gets hot enough.

•All projections (roof eaves, etc.) should be protected on the underside with cement stucco or cement board (like Certainteed or Hardie Board) that looks like wood. A less-preferred alternative is to paint natural wood with fire-resistant coating to improve its resistance to ignition by burning embers. Hot air rises and can easily ignite roof overhangs in a firestorm.

•Coat wood decks with multiple layers of a fire-resistant urethane deck covering (Pacific Polymers or similar) or treat wood decking with fire-resistant coatings (Fire Stop or similar).

Note: Chemical treatments, such as Fire Stop, will inhibit ignition by burning embers, but will not prevent ignition due to a superhot firestorm. A stucco coat (¾ inch or thicker) on the underside of wooden decks was credited with saving two homes in the Laguna Beach fire. There is a new fly-ash composite decking board from LifeTime Lumber that has a “Class A” fireproof rating and is LEED certified for its recycled content, that can be used to build high-quality fireproof decks. Trex and many of the other similar competing composite decking manufacturers have come out with “Class B” fire-resistant wood/plastic composite decking to meet California’s new wildland fire codes.

•Use only “Class A” fire-rated roofing systems, which are rated to prevent both the roofing material itself, and roofing underlayment (plywood) from catching fire when covered with burning embers. Most asphalt and fiberglass shingles are Class A rated, but metal roofing usually requires the use of Versashield underlayment (or equal) to achieve this rating. “Living” roofs (planted sod) have excellent fire resistance as well as thermal mass and insulation. With Class A roofing, the eaves and overhangs are the most vulnerable areas of the roof owing to the fire down below.

(Above list adapted and expanded from John Underwood, Fire Resistant Details: Studying the Houses That Survived the 1993 Laguna Beach Fire Storm Yields Lessons in Building to Withstand the Heat, Fine Home Building.com)

There are a number of building systems that are inherently fire-resistant. Basically, if it is earth or concrete based, it is very fire resistant. Also, if you fill the wall with foam or straw to eliminate dead air spaces and the chimney effect, and sheath the wall with stucco, earthen plasters, or cement board, even if it is wood-framed, it will have good fire resistance. Do your best to make your roof, eaves, and decks fire resistant too, since your home will only be as fire resistant as its weakest link. Obviously, traditional stone, brick, and concrete-block construction are also quite fire resistant, provided their roofs are not a weak link in the system.

With burning embers settling on rooftops, in many cases it is the roof that forms the weak link in the fire-resistance chain. Traditional wooden shake and shingle are notorious for catching on fire from burning embers. For fire-resistant roofing, consider the following options:

•Use only “Class A” fire-rated roofing.

•Class A roofing must withstand burning embers on roof without igniting plywood sheeting.

•Most modern composition (asphalt) shingles are “Class A” fire-rated.

•Metal roofs transmit heat easily to the underlying plywood, so they tend to be not as fire resistant as you might imagine, unless they are underlaid with an insulating flame-resistant lining. They are usually only Class A fire resistant with the addition of Versashield underlayment (or similar).

•I recommend two layers of Versashield FR underlayment (or similar) FR barrier for extra fire barrier between metal roofing and its underlying plywood sheeting.

Secret Patriot Act?

Yes, there is a Secret Patriot Act, Senator Says, in an article by Spencer Ackerman posted on Wired.com

UrbanMan's note: There is truth in the protocol that it's not the law that agencies work within, it's the agency policy influenced by the interpretation by the agency's legal counsel.  While I don't think this is a big threat to the common law abiding prepper, the fact that NSA collects and retains ALL electronic correspondence and the use of keywrod search engines in these communications focused on common prepper subjects like 'home defense', 'weapons', 'going off the grid', 'preparing for the collapse', 'preparing for martial law', etc could spawn potential investigations of innocent people.  I have been around enough to know that some people, certaintly the minority, in government law enforcement circles do not like to waste time on investigations that result in no charges.  Any charges, even the more severe the charges, often leads to plea bargins even when the accused party has/had no criminal intent and no criminal actions.    

You think you understand how the Patriot Act allows the government to spy on its citizens. Sen. Ron Wyden says it’s worse than you know.

Congress is set to reauthorize three controversial provisions of the surveillance law as early as Thursday. Wyden (D-Oregon) says that powers they grant the government on their face, the government applies a far broader legal interpretation — an interpretation that the government has conveniently classified, so it cannot be publicly assessed or challenged. But one prominent Patriot-watcher asserts that the secret interpretation empowers the government to deploy ”dragnets” for massive amounts of information on private citizens; the government portrays its data-collection efforts much differently.

“We’re getting to a gap between what the public thinks the law says and what the American government secretly thinks the law says,” Wyden told Danger Room in an interview in his Senate office. “When you’ve got that kind of a gap, you’re going to have a problem on your hands.”

What exactly does Wyden mean by that? As a member of the intelligence committee, he laments that he can’t precisely explain without disclosing classified information. But one component of the Patriot Act in particular gives him immense pause: the so-called “business-records provision,” which empowers the FBI to get businesses, medical offices, banks and other organizations to turn over any “tangible things” it deems relevant to a security investigation.

“It is fair to say that the business-records provision is a part of the Patriot Act that I am extremely interested in reforming,” Wyden says. “I know a fair amount about how it’s interpreted, and I am going to keep pushing, as I have, to get more information about how the Patriot Act is being interpreted declassified. I think the public has a right to public debate about it.”

That’s why Wyden and his colleague Sen. Mark Udall offered an amendment on Tuesday to the Patriot Act reauthorization.

The amendment, first reported by Marcy Wheeler, blasts the administration for “secretly reinterpret[ing] public laws and statutes.” It would compel the Attorney General to “publicly disclose the United States Government’s official interpretation of the USA Patriot Act.” And, intriguingly, it refers to “intelligence-collection authorities” embedded in the Patriot Act that the administration briefed the Senate about in February.

Wyden says he “can’t answer” any specific questions about how the government thinks it can use the Patriot Act. That would risk revealing classified information — something Wyden considers an abuse of government secrecy. He believes the techniques themselves should stay secret, but the rationale for using their legal use under Patriot ought to be disclosed.

“I draw a sharp line between the secret interpretation of the law, which I believe is a growing problem, and protecting operations and methods in the intelligence area, which have to be protected,” he says.

Surveillance under the business-records provisions has recently spiked. The Justice Department’s official disclosure on its use of the Patriot Act, delivered to Congress in April, reported that the government asked the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court for approval to collect business records 96 times in 2010 — up from just 21 requests the year before. The court didn’t reject a single request. But it “modified” those requests 43 times, indicating to some Patriot-watchers that a broadening of the provision is underway.

“The FISA Court is a pretty permissive body, so that suggests something novel or particularly aggressive, not just in volume, but in the nature of the request,” says Michelle Richardson, the ACLU’s resident Patriot Act lobbyist. “No one has tipped their hand on this in the slightest. But we’ve come to the conclusion that this is some kind of bulk collection. It wouldn’t be surprising to me if it’s some kind of internet or communication-records dragnet.” (Full disclosure: My fiancée works for the ACLU.)

The FBI deferred comment on any secret interpretation of the Patriot Act to the Justice Department. The Justice Department said it wouldn’t have any comment beyond a bit of March congressional testimony from its top national security official, Todd Hinnen, who presented the type of material collected as far more individualized and specific: “driver’s license records, hotel records, car-rental records, apartment-leasing records, credit card records, and the like.”

But that’s not what Udall sees. He warned in a Tuesday statement about the government’s “unfettered” access to bulk citizen data, like “a cellphone company’s phone records.” In a Senate floor speech on Tuesday, Udall urged Congress to restrict the Patriot Act’s business-records seizures to “terrorism investigations” — something the ostensible counterterrorism measure has never required in its nearly 10-year existence.

Indeed, Hinnen allowed himself an out in his March testimony, saying that the business-record provision “also” enabled “important and highly sensitive intelligence-collection operations” to take place. Wheeler speculates those operations include “using geolocation data from cellphones to collect information on the whereabouts of Americans” — something our sister blog Threat Level has reported on extensively.

It’s worth noting that Wyden is pushing a bill providing greater privacy protections for geolocation info.

For now, Wyden’s considering his options ahead of the Patriot Act vote on Thursday. He wants to compel as much disclosure as he can on the secret interpretation, arguing that a shadow broadening of the Patriot Act sets a dangerous precedent.

“I’m talking about instances where the government is relying on secret interpretations of what the law says without telling the public what those interpretations are,” Wyden says, “and the reliance on secret interpretations of the law is growing.”

Short Questions and answers on SHTF

Survival Team Building "Urbanman, I really get the having a survival team concept since a single man has to sleep sometime. I live in a house by myself in lower income area. It's safe, just older, lower income houses that's probbaly why my Grandma didn't sell it, but let me live here - she is out of state. I don't believe there is anyone under 60 years old in the neighborhood. I live here because it's close to work, close to night classes and rent free although I pay for utilities, repairs and taxes. Even then doesn;t leave alot for prepping. I have some of my old Army gear, a couple rifles and a handgun and some food stored. I am interested in growing a garden too. Do you have some tips for building a neighborhood team that is mostly old foggies?"

UrbanMan's reply: It is good to remember that sometimes old age and treachery wins out over youthful vigor and skill sets. I am serious, but even more serious and to the point, team building, with basically strangers, starts with meeting them, building rapport, edifying yourself meaning building their confidence in you as a decision maker. To start off the bat with having neighbors build bunkers, buy guns, stock pile ammunition, store food etc., may make you seem like a crazy. A neighborhood watch program with a visiting police officer explaining this program for the neighborhood is a good place to start. You knocking on doors and introducing yourself, passing out your cell phone number, asking these elderly people if you can do anything for them will continue the rapport building. At a very minimum you have to know these people before the collapse.

Gold and Silver value After the Collapse I have had several other questions relating to the value of Silver or Gold after a SHTF event and how much value they will hold or should hold. Basically reader's looking for some sort of outline on how they sholuld value their Precious metals by the ounce or silver melt value coins.

I have long held off answering this question but the answer (the value of precious metals) could be as diverase as the people bartering with it. I think the value of silver and gold will go up each day preceding the collapse (if the collapse catalyst is a signficant event) until there is no more food, then the value will go down, meaning more precious metals to buy any commodity. I have cash on hand for the transition period where paper money is scare, then gold and silver for purchasing power after fiat currency loses it value completely and is not accepted, then it will be a pure barter society for the most part. I picked up a sledge hammer, an axe and a tool box with loose wrenches and sockets at the flea market the other day,..$20 for all. My wife say's "Are you really buying more tools! You have an endless supply." My reply: "I got them cheap, they don't take uo much room at all, and they will be good barter items when people stop accept money and precious metals. No go back to geting those cucumbers and tomatoes growing!".

Four Collapse Scenarios

A long but very good read from James Corbett, called Four Economic Collapse Scenarios (and How to Prepare for Them) :

Without a doubt one of the most frequently asked questions I hear from my readers and listeners is: “So when do you think the economic collapse will happen?” That question has a number of related follow ups, of course. Like: “When the collapse comes, what will I need to have?” and “Will my 401k be there when I retire?” and “How much of my money should be in x?” where x is alternately stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, alternative currencies, survival goods, or, most often, precious metals. Given that I have talked repeatedly and at great length about the mathematical certainty of the coming collapse, these types of questions are hardly surprising. I can certainly relate to the people who are motivated to ask about the collapse and how to prepare for it. After all, when you strip away all of the distractions from the market (the daily dips and spikes in individual stocks or indices, the movements in the dollar and the yen and the euro, the latest manufacturing data or doctored unemployment numbers or bond yield figures), what else is there really to concentrate on but the end point we all know is coming?

And we do know that it's coming. We all learn the simplest law of the universe before we're even old enough to read and write: whatever goes up must come down. So too is the simplest law of economics equally self-evident: illusory wealth will eventually disappear. And there is enough illusory wealth floating around the economy now to choke a camel. There's the $86 trillion (at least) in unfunded liabilities that the U.S. government is committed to over the next 75 years, a chain of debt slavery that is put around the noose of every boy and girl in America (and those yet to be born) from the very moment of their birth. Or the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble that has been blown by the jackals of finance capitalism, a bubble that is so large, and the popping of which would be so utterly devestating (picture a thousand financial nuclear bombs exploding simultaneously across the globe and you might start to comprehend the danger), that they have now been officially declared above the law by no less than the Attorney General himself, lest their prosecution sets off the economic time bomb.

And there's the fact that the monetary system itself requires almost every single new dollar entering the economy to be born in the form of debt paid back to the banksters themselves. Such a system cannot continue indefinitely. So I can understand if people are surprised that my usual answer to their questions about the collapse is that there's no way to predict when such a collapse will take place or even what form it will take. There are literally millions of variables at play in the collapse scenario equation, and many of them depend not just on the underlying reality of the situation (the actual unemployment figure, for instance) but on the market's perception of that reality (the manipulated numbers given out by the Burea of Labor Statistics). In my experience, this is surprising to many people because they tend to believe there is only one possible form that an economic collapse might take place, and many believe that it will certainly take place within the next year or two. But this is not necessarily so. In order to widen our perspective on that nebulous “economic collapse” term, why don't we take a look at just a few of the possible ways that a collapse might happen, and the ways that people can prepare for each of them individually.

Scenario 1: A Complete Systemic Collapse

This is the so-called Mad Max scenario and its by far the most common one that comes to mind when they hear the phrase “economic collapse.” Essentially, it involves a complete breakdown in economic transactions leading to a total dissolution of society. There are different ways that this could come about.


UrbanMan's Comments:"Bail-in is confiscating investor's funds to prop up the institution - like Cyprus.

The news renews worries over sovereign debt that causes sudden spikes in bond yields across the board, crashing Spain and Greece's ability to finance their debt. The ECB reacts by firing Draghi's bazooka, but it's too little too late to save the Euro. The contagion reaches the States where major investment banks with exposures in both Japan and Europe suddenly find their derivatives trades unwinding as counter-parties go bankrupt. The Fed tries an emergency injection of liquidity, but the markets tank anyway, wiping out billions in equity wealth and further panicking the markets. The central banks of the world attempt a coordinated stimulus to boost the markets, but by this time too many banks have gone under. Customers at banks around the world find they can't withdraw money from their accounts or make payments from them. The FDIC and its counterparts across the globe can't back up all of the obligations, and financial markets buckle completely. The economy as we know it has ceased to function.

Now obviously this scenario would not exactly unfold “overnight,” but we can imagine how it could all happen with surprising rapidity once the ball started rolling. As much as it sounds like something out of a Hollywood disaster flick, it's not outside of the realm of possibility; after all, this is essentially the type of nightmare scenario that Paulson, Bernanke, the Wall Street bigwigs and the banksters on the Federal Reserve board of governors threatened congress with in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse. At the very least the threat of such a collapse helped sell the $700 billion bailout (that later ran into the tens of trillions) to the public.

At the same time, I hope the reader can see that this is by no means the only way our current system might break down. After all, it relies on the complete and simultaneous meltdown of every failsafe and circuit-breaker in every market around the globe. It also posits that the market will have woken up to the central banks' phony baloney funny money tricks and fail to respond to the big proclamations and promises of the printing press, unlike every other stage of this crisis.

Even from the market realist position of someone who understands that the entire monetary system is a house of cards built out of illusion by the banksters, can we really believe that this is the scenario they want to bring about? The complete overnight collapse of civilization? The reduction of the population to roving bands of criminals and vigilantes? Do they really want to rule over a wasteland? I think ot.

So, a total overnight collapse scenario: Possible? Certainly. Inevitable? Certainly not. But if this is a possibility, what can be done to prepare for it? As you might have guessed, this is the scenario that the doomsday preppers have envisioned and that they will be best positioned to survive. If the entire system falls apart at once (banking, credit, money markets, bonds, stock market) then people are essentially left with whatever they physically have in their possession or what they're able to acquire. Many people have a few days' worth of food on hand in case of some sort of natural disaster, but how many are prepared for months or even years of living without electricity, without running water, without the ability to buy food at a supermarket? I'll leave this as a rhetorical question.

What's more, while cash, stocks and bonds all become worthless in such a situation, it's by no means guaranteed that traditional stores of value like gold and other precious metals would fare any better. Given how detached modern western society has become from hard money, how likely is it that you'll find other people who even understand the value of your precious metals, let alone be willing or able to transact with them? No, in this system the only things that will be guaranteed to still be valuable are land and whatever is sitting on it. This is why people are often encouraged to have an acre or two of land out in the countryside somewhere, well away from any urban population centers. Of course, all of that land and whatever food, water, and supplies you might have on it will be worthless if it is looted and pilfered by the desperate members of the public who suddenly find themselves unable to cope. In that regard, some guns and other items of self-defense might turn out to be your most valuable possessions overall.

This is what it boils down to for the total collapse scenario: guns, land, grub, shelter. The idea of “protecting your wealth” is almost meaningless in this case, as the sole purpose would be to protect your life.

But, luckily for all of us, as I mentioned earlier this is not the only (or even the most likely) scenario. So how else could an economic collapse play out?

UrbanMan's Comments: In my opinion, this scenario is likely to happen. Having cash on hand, gold and silver would allow you to purchase last minute items without worrying about the bank holidays and such. Cash will devalue fast then it will be a gold-silver-barter type market. Communications should still work - be prepared to field calls from people not in your group but nonetheless know you have prepped for something like this. This is the type of scenario that no matter how much food, gold, silver, survival supllies and firearms/ammunition you have on hand - if you do not have a secure location and/or a team to protect each other you will be at risk. If you are one of the suburban dwellers then you better start building your local community of mutually supporting neighbors fast if you haven't done it yet.

Scenario 2: A hyperinflationary death spiral

This is the possibility that hard money proponents have been touting for years; namely, that the constant pumping in of Federal Reserve QE funny money into the system would spark a bout of hyperinflation. Think Weimar Republic and wheelbarrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread. So how could this play out?

The bond bubble pops. It was bound to happen eventually, but one day for some reason (no one is quite sure why) the markets fail to listen to Chairmen Ben and the Federal Reserve crew's latest pronouncement about easing, or the lack of easing, or the possibility of continuing easing, or the probability that easing might end some day in the future, or the likelihood that an end of easing won't come unless it does, or some such thing. Bond prices drop. Interest rates rise. They turn up the printing press in order to buy more bonds, but they suddenly can't print fast enough to keep the rates down. The new money floods the markets, but the economy doesn't grow. Suddenly the US (and, in short order, the rest of the world) is awash in dollars and has nothing to buy with them.

People discover the real value of Federal Reserve Notes: they burn well in the winter. In the meantime, they discover that it's hard to stuff enough $100 bills in a wheelbarrow to buy a billion dollar loaf of bread.

This is another popular conception of what a crash would look like. On the surface it makes total sense. The Fed has more than tripled the monetary base since the 2007 crisis and their sure hasn't been a tripling of economic activity in that time. From Econ 101 we know that an expanding money supply in the face of a stagnant economy means inflation. But we're not seeing inflation anywhere near the figures we should be...not even the real statistics (i.e. John Williams' statistics) show inflation reflective of such a rapid expansion of the monetary base. So where is all the money going? At the moment, it's going into bonds. The Fed is currently engaged in two easing programs, one of which is purchasing long-term Treasuries to the tune of $45 billion a month. For those keeping track at home, that means the (privately owned) central bank of the US is outright monetizing half a trillion dollars of government debt a year in one purchasing program alone. This is part of what Andrew Haldane (the euphemisticallyentitled “Director of Financial Stability” at the Bank of England) calls the biggest bond bubble in history. If you don't know what that means but you don't like the sound of it, don't worry; you're on the right track. Essentially it means that if and when the central banks of the world take their foot off the printing press gas (or even hint that they are going to do so), yields are going to start rising. Essentially, governments will have to pay more to finance their debts. Given that the entire Eurozone crisis is focused on the sovereign debt crisis and the knife-edge balance that is going on right now to stop bond yields from spinning out of control, the idea that the central bank gravy train could come to an end is a scary thought indeed for bond markets.

Long story short: if the central banks ever find that simply printing more dollars doesn't keep those rates low, the bond bubble could pop and yields could go through the roof, requiring more and more money to be pumped in to try to keep things in check. Theoretically, this could be your hyperinflationary kick-off...

So how can you position yourself for this scenario? Well, bonds are obviously not a good place to be if the bubble should pop. And it obviously wouldn't be good to have your life savings in cash stuffed under your mattress (or your bank) in a hyperinflationary wheelbarrow-full-of-paper-to-buy-a-postage-stamp scenario. If cash becomes toilet paper, there goes your life savings. But counter- intuitively, stocks are not necessarily a bad place to be during a hyperinflationary bout. In fact, various examples of hyperinflation from history, including Weimar Germany, showed that stocks can actually fare fairly well. A JP Morgan analysis indicates that the value of the Weimar stock market tripled in value (in US dollar terms) during Germany's hyperinflationary scare. Commodities are a fairly safe bet, as their prices will tend to track the inflation. But the hyperinflationary scenario is really the goldbug's heaven. If the dollar circles the drain this will be the prudent gold investor's chance to have the ultimate last laugh as gold prices go through the roof (measured in fiat, of course).

But some argue that the hyperinflation scenario isn't going to happen. They point out that the velocity of money (the measure of how quickly money is actually moving through the economy) is at its lowest value in over half a century. This means that whatever is happening to the money supply right now, it's not adding to inflation. After all, the Fed could print a trillion dollars a day, but if they just buried the money in the ground it would have no inflationary effect at all. So some are arguing that despite all the money printing that's going on, it's not a hyperinflationary nightmare that people have to watch out for.

UrbanMan's Comments:  The almost 50 million Americans who rely on the Government for a check to keep from going hungry would soon be joined by tens of million more Americans who buying power would not be enough to sustain their life routine and indeed may not be allow for the purchasing of simple essentials.   

Scenario 3: The deflationary depression

This is a much less popular view among the economic realists who see the collapse coming, but no less of a potential nightmare if you're not positioned accordingly. And there is no question about whether such a scenario could come true. It already did. Just ask your grandparents.

Things continue pretty much as they are now. The governments run their printing presses, but that money doesn't make its way into the economy. Banks continue to park their reserves in central bank vaults rather than loan them out. People don't want to take out loans, anyway, as they struggle to dig their way out of all-time record household debt burdens. Economic activity continues contracting, retail sales continue dropping, people pinch their pennies and when they see the economy slowing down they start pinching even tighter. Businesses scale back, and layoffs start to add up until even the government bean counters can't hide it. The majority of the population is on food stamps, and less and less economic activity actually relies on increasingly scarce dollars. Instead, government handouts and/or private charity becomes the new currency. The 21st century equivalent of the Dirty Thirties is upon us.

If the hyperinflationary scenario seems intuitive at first glance, this one has to be counter-intuitive. After all, central banks are flooding the world in easy money. How can this possibly lead to a more scarce (and more valuable) dollar? Of course, the other half of the equation is what the public is doing, and for the last few years we've been in an overall deleveraging cycle as people struggle to pay down their debts. In the first quarter of this year household debt fell to 2006 levels.

But in an economy where money is debt, the extinguishing of debt is the extinguishing of money. Less debt, less money in circulation. The government can continue to inflate its bond bubble all day long (and feed into a new housing bubble while they're at it), but it's ultimately the banks and the people that decide if the economy is going to expand or contract...and the more people deleverage and the less they spend, the more the economy will contract.

So if we do enter a deflationary depression, who are the winners and losers? Well, unsurprisingly this is just about the mirror image of the hyperinflationary scenario. Goldbugs would be the big losers at first, as dollars become more scarce and thus rise in value, so would precious metals decline in value. But as the effects of the depression kick in and people struggle to meet debt obligations, currencies could collapse and precious metals could once again be a hedge of last resort. Stocks would plunge as businesses downsize and revenues dive. There would be an upside on bonds, but given that we're already in a bond bubble there isn't very much to that upside. Cash could actually be a safe place to have your money in a deflationary depression, assuming you're not holding one of the currencies that collapses.

This is a nightmare scenario for the average person as people struggle to find work and people hoard dollars rather than spend them into the economy, creating the vicious cycle of contraction. Hyperinflationists argue this is virtually impossible because central banks can always print as much money as they want to make sure the economy never ceases up completely, but deflationists argue that monetizing government debt (which central banks are “good” at) is a different kettle of fish from monetizing household and business debt, which runs into the tens of trillions. Essentially they argue that there's a point at which even central banks would blink at the prospect of straight-up monetizing all of that debt, and if so the deflation cycle kicks in. And we all know that the only way out of the Dirty Thirties was World War II...

Scenario Four: Expect the unexpected

Life's funny sometimes. You can spend all your time wargaming out every possible scenario and carefully thinking about the logical consequences of different events...but it still doesn't mean you'll be prepared for what actually happens. Imagine where you thought your life was going to be like in 2013 back in 2003. It probably didn't look anything like where you really are. Sometimes you just never know what will happen.

By some miracle, a researcher discovers an abundant source of clean, virtually limitless energy. Cold fusion or zero point energy or some such thing. By another miracle, they don't suffer an unfortunate “accident” before they can share their discovery with the world. The world economy is transformed overnight. All of that part of the economy that is geared toward finding, extracting and producing energy collapses. Limitless free energy transforms nations, enabling even the poorest countries access to technologies that their infrastructure could never have supported before. With free energy, humanity outgrows wars for resource control and squabbles over patches of land or lines on a map and begins to fulfill humanity's real destiny of populating the stars. A new era of human existence begins.

Alright, that is a fanciful scenario to say the least, but hopefully it gets the point across. Some random, completely unexpected event can come along and utterly change the course of human history. Or smaller game-changers can, at the very least, throw off calculations completely. Dire forecasts of dwindling oil and gas reserves in the past decade, for example, have been utterly thrown off by fracking and the shale gas revolution and the tar sands and other things that were not part of the old equations. Similarly, what if 3D Printing lives up to its promise and revolutionizes manufacturing as we know it? If 3D Printers become the norm and become adept at manufacturing useful everyday items, the transformation of the economy at large would be almost incalculable. So what could we expect for different investment classes in such a scenario?

Well, we couldn't expect anything, of course. That's the very point. If some game changer arrives that could transform or even abolish entire sectors, there is no way to prepare for such a thing. In effect, it's luck of the draw whether cash, stocks, bonds, land, precious metals or commodities would surge, plummet or be rendered irrelevant.

UrbanMan's Comments: Many possibilities in the realm of what we don't expect or what may be too dire to consider,...civil war along racial, economical or political lines,...nuclear attack, non-nuclaer WMD attack by terrorists, Pandemic,.....but after all, that's what we are preparing for,...whatever happens.

Conclusions

In conclusion, it's always good to keep in mind that there is more than one way to skin a cat and there's more than one way for an economy to collapse. If we end up in a Mad Max scenario that would look quite different to a deflationary depression, even if certain factors look similar in both cases.

This is the very reason why any investment advisor (of which I am not one) will tell you to diversify your portfolio. You never want all of your eggs in one basket because if you bet the farm on the stock market and stocks plunge, you've lost it all. What percentages you want to invest in what asset classes will depend on all sorts of variables, of course, from how much you have to invest, to your risk appetite, to what future economic scenario you think is most likely. For the ultimate in stability, Libertarian writer Harry Browne advocated a portfolio consisting of 25% long term bonds, 25% cash, 25% stocks and 25% gold. That way, there is not a single one of these collapse scenarios where you would lose it all. The downside, of course, is that there is no scenario where you win across the board, either.

Such a strategy may or may not be for you, but regardless of what you choose, be sure to think carefully about what you are looking for and what you think is the most likely collapse scenario.

UrbanMan's Comments: My portfolio - 50% Planning and team building; 10% stored food; 10% gold, silver and barter items; 10% survival firearms and ammunition; 10% equipment and material; 10% sustainable water sources......okay, okay,..my percentages are off,...I'm just trying to make a point that survivalibility of 401K and other investments are NOT the tip of the spear in your collapse and survival planning.   

AK-47 versus the AR-15 as a SHTF Gun

The Blaze posted an article from Tactical Gear which was a comparison on the AK-47 and the AR-15, with the tag line "Which is the better rifle?"

The article gave statistics concerning recognizability, numbers in production, countries (military forces) in use, and share of the global firearms market which of course are all immaterial to the survival prepper.

This article did compare such fairly important topics such as: Maximum Effective Range; Caliber; Muzzle Energy; Standard Length; Rounds per Minute (rate of fire); and, Accuracy. What are these factors and how important are they?

Maximum Effective Range

The maximum effective range (MER) is supposedly the range in which a a trained shooter can effectively engage a man sized target, and for testing is usually the full size Army "E" type shiloutte. The AK-47's MER is 400 yards versus the AR-15's (or M-4) MER of 600 yards. MER is, in this case, largely an affect of accuracy and in this case the sights on the rifle, from which the AR series rifles have greatly superior sights.

Caliber, Muzzle Energy and Stopping Power

The AK-47 fires the 7.62x39mm cartridge also called the M43 Russian, while the AR-15 fires the 5.56x45mm or the .223 Remington cartridge. Or basically, the AK-47 with a bullet of 122 grains at 2,400 feet per second versus the AR-15 shooting a 55 to 62 grain bullet (among other weights) at 2,900 feet per second.

Which would you rather shoot a bad guy with if your life depended upon it? The AK-47, handsdown, as more stopping power as it produces more muzzle energy and is more likely to leave all it's energy in the target than over penetrate the target and taking some of that energy with it.

Standard Length

The standard length measurement is basically nonsense since both platforms can be configured with folding or collapsible stocks to reduce the length. However, argueably, a fixed stock allows for a better stock/cheek weld for longer range accurate shots. It the rifle has a collapsaible or fixed stock, then it has moving parts and generally a higher failure rate than non-moving parts. No sweat on either. Select the configuration for your requirements. If you travel extnsively and figure that you may be shooting from vehicle then a shorter overall length may be a good idea. Rounds per Minute (rate of fire)

The Tactical Gear comparison listsa the AK-47 at 600 rounds per minute versus 700-950 for the AR-15. This is based on selective fire and really a non-starter as far as consideration for a SHTF gun as most people own semi-automatic only versions and would have to be facing the chinese-mongol hoards to burn a barrel out.

Accuracy

The Tactical Gear article listed the AK-47 as having 10 Minute of Angle (MOA) accuracy.  That equates to 10 inch groups at 100 yards - this gun is more capable than that.  They list the AR-15 as 7 MOA which is 7 inches at 100 yards - again this gun is more capable than that,..in both cases, if the shooter is. 

Sights and training greatly affect accuracy of any given rifle.  As well as different bullet weights, bullet designs and loads which are available for most rifle calibers.  The AK-47 does not have a long list of different bullet weights and loads like the .223 Remington, however individual long guns will "like" certain brands and loads better than others.  Given these facts, most rifles possess sufficient accuracy for the average prepper.  I have no problem whatsoever with the accuracy of AK-47's out to 400 yards.  Past 400 yards, one would wonder if you really need to take that shot.  Certainly when faced with the giant horde of vicious mobs hell bent on your destruction and taking what you own, the earlier you begin reducing those numbers the better off you will be in most cases.  The trick is to start fights only when you absolutely need to and have a good chance of winning.

So the bottom line,......while the AR-15 is inherantly more accurate than the AK-47, the AK-47 has sufficient accuracy to serve as a primary SHTF long gun.        

Ease of Controls and Trainability

I think the ease of use and training someone to be proficient should be considered in the selection of a SHTF long gun.  The AR-15, hands down, is easier to change magazines and manipulate the selector lever, safe to semi.  The AK-47 selector is a thumb buster and requires right handed shooters to take their strong hand grip off the pistol grip to push the selector up to safe or down for semi-automatic.   

Other Neglected Comparisons

Weight of ammunition and magazines.  While there is at least one company, Palm, making polymer, P mag type lightweight magazines  for the AK-47, the greatest amount of AK-47 on the market are steel and therefore heavy. Adding the greater weight of 30 rounds of 7.62x39mm versus .223 Remington, a basic load for the AK-47 will be heavier for the Prepper armed with an AK-47.

The AR-15 and all the vendors making after market accesories offers a wide range of products to customize the AR-15 or variant to the needs of the prepper.  And certainly shooters have a propensity to modify the AR-15 to an extreme degree.  What is telling if one ever gets the chance to attend a tactical carbine course, is that the gun and it's configuration, modifications and bells and whistles on day one after much different than the last day of training.  In the tactical carbine courses that I have taught, I have never failed to see shooters stripping their guns of the weight of accessories as the training went on, ending up with probably what they ought to carry on the gun in the first place. 

The bottom line is that any serious prepper, should have a magazine fed rifle be it the AK series, AR variant, M1A, HK-91 or 53, Galil, etc.  I thinks the coming times will demand it.        

Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 26

From UrbanMan: I have received a few e-mail asking about what happended to Jim from the Survival Chronicles of Jim Chapters. Others ask if Jim is real. Oh yeah, Jim is really. Jim is not his real name, but we all have our secrets. Jim was working for friends of mine as a computer tech on contract and as he contract expired he now is working out of his house as a systems developer or some such computer gobbleygook but it requires him to travel 3.5 hours one way a couple days a week with a one or two night stayover in a hotel. I sent Jim the book "Going Home" by A. American, a good read by the way, so he could see some situations for wargamming if he had to make it back home.I asked Jim to send me an e-mail with my intent of publishing it on this site.

UrbanMan,

All set up in my routine now. Still have rental houses to manage from afar and my other home based business, but my software and database work for a major company requiring me to travel 3 1/2 hours by car and staying overnight and sometimes several nights during the week. At least my car is a business expense and tax deductible!.....not to mention a rolling survival platform, or at least I started developing this concept.

I carry the large bag with rollers and backpack straps (UrbanMan's note: a FPG deployment bag) that you gave me. This is my Get Home Bag, a la the "Going Home" novel you sent me. I know you told me to think about keeping my SKS in my vehicle with me, and although I keep all my accessories for this rifle in my Get Home bag, I have yet to take the gun on any of my work trips. Maybe it's an idea I have to get used to. At least I have my Walther pistol. In my Get Home bag I have these items:

• Load Bearing Molle Vest with Camel-Bak with mag pouches for my SKS ammunition. I have the conversion kit for the SKS to use those banana magazines, with the the metal lip extension so it locks into place, but have not converted it yet.

• Silva Compass

• Spare Fire Starting Kit

• Green Fleece

• Gortex Rain Suit

• Snugpak Sleeping Bag

• 8 civilian type versions of military meals

• Pack of assorted nut snacks and granola bars

• 6 packets of instant soup and a tube of bullion cubes

• Trauma Medical Kit

• 2 camouflage ponchos

• Hammock net that I can use to thread plants into for a camoufalge or an impromtu fishing net

• Small butane stove with one fuel cartridge with cooking pot

• 40 feet of green para-cord

• A Small Fishing Kit*

• Firearms Cleaning Kit

• Field cap

• Aviators gloves

• Empty five quarter canteen so I have extra water carrying capacity

• Wire saw

* The fishing kit was an adventure. Not knowing anything, I went into a Sporting Goods chain store and was looking around, not knowing what to get. One of the sales guys helped me but when he asked what I was looking for, I had to tell him "Basically, an small adventure fishing kit in case I have to survive something like a plane crash in a remote area." He looked at me like I was an idiot, but I ended up buying hooks, lead weight, fishing line, and a couple of small, multi-colored lures. I learned that there is a whole culture behind fishing.

I carry that soft computer case you gave me with the molle webbing attachment as my urban Bug Out Bag. I only really have to carry a laptop, x drives, a couple of software discs, and some cables so I have plenty of room for the three boxes of SKS ammunition and my little Walther .22 pistol. I used the extra ammunition pouches attached to the outside of this case to carry bottled water in. Usually I leave the pistol and the ammunition inside my vehicle when I am in a building. I have my little fire starting kit in a zip lock bag, several bags of nuts and a couple nutrition bars, a folding knife and a "AA" Pelican flashlight and extra batteries. I carry 6 one ounce Silver rounds and a roll of old quarters for their silver melt value. Not to mention I rarely travel without several hundred dollars in cash.

Taking your advice I have driven different routes from my house to my work site. On the route that minimizes the high traffic areas and the interstate segments, it will take me an additional 45- 60 minutes of driving time because of all the slowdowns, speed traps, small communities and single lane roads. Like you said this longer driving route will probably become my primary way to get home in any major collapse event due to the most lower chance of traffic jams and refugees.

I haven't bought a suitable map yet nor have I reconned the best places to lay up whether I was traveling home by vehicle, bicycle or on foot. I'm dating a woman in my home city. While she has a key to my house, I haven't really briefed her on my preparations. She has seen the water dispenser with ten full 5 gallon bottles of water lined up and she said something to the effect that "Gee, you're not going to run out of water soon!"  

UrbanMan's Comment:  After recieving this from Jim, I advised Jim to ensure he carried water with him, other than his bottled drinking water, during his business trips.  A five gallon water jug or the equivilent in one gallon containers can be loaded and un-loaded for these weekly trips without too much butt pain to ensure at any point during his transit he has water.  If he can stay with his vehicle ad make it home, great.  But if he is forced to dump his vehicle, he would have the water to fill his water containers and begin the walk (worst case) home.  I also advised Jim to store a camouflage net for his vehicle in case he had to pull off his route and hole up because of traffickability issues of threat.  

My last advice for Jim is to take the alternate route a few times and stop in these small communities to get the feeling from the population and perhaps make his face known - may come in handy if that becomes his Going Home route....and Jim, take your rifle with you!  

  

Economic Collapse is Coming - Time to Leave the U.S.

The Dollar Vigilante's Jeff Berwick is back chatting about a myriad of economic and stock market-related issues with Cambridge House Live's anchor, Bridgitte Anderson. Taped at Cambridge House International's Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.

This is more opinion and food for thought on the coming financial-economic collapse. Cast your knowledge net wide, collect and analyze that information, discard what is bunk and plan/prepare. 

Poverty - A Catalyst for Collapse

The Real Numbers: Half Of America In Poverty — And It’s Creeping Toward 75%

I don't know about the 75%, but those in poverty increase everyday and the only remedy being applied is government handouts which not only cannot continue unabated but at some point may stop abruptly. Make up your own mind from this article from Liberty Crier.com

Where does that leave you and your family? In the majority of population in poverty looking vainly for a way to survive? Are you one of the 1% who are prepared to last a period of time in a "no food" available environment? If so, how long? 30 days? 6 months? Two years? Are you and your family going to be victims of those without? - and make no mistake about it - those without will do anything to sustain themselves - wouldn't you?

Anyway, the article from Liberty Crier:

The Census Bureau has reported that one out of six Americans lives in poverty. A shocking figure. But it’s actually much worse. Inequality is spreading like a shadowy disease through our country, infecting more and more households, and leaving a shrinking number of financially secure families to maintain the charade of prosperity.

1. Almost half of Americans had NO assets in 2009

Analysis of Economic Policy Institute data shows that Mitt Romney’s famous 47 percent, the alleged ‘takers,’ have taken nothing. Their debt exceeded their assets in 2009.

2. It’s Even Worse 3 Years Later

Since the recession, the disparities have continued to grow. An OECD report states that “inequality has increased by more over the past three years to the end of 2010 than in the previous twelve,” with the U.S. experiencing one of the widest gaps among OECD countries. The 30-year decline in wages has worsened since the recession, as low-wage jobs have replaced formerly secure middle-income positions.

3. Based on wage figures, over half of Americans are now IN poverty.

According to IRS data, the average household in the bottom 50% brings in about $18,000 per year. That’s less than the poverty line for a family of three ($19,000) or a family of four ($23,000).

Census income figures are about 25% higher, because they include unemployment compensation, workers’ compensation, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, public assistance, veterans’ payments, and various other monetary sources. Based on this supplemental income, the average household in the bottom 50% brings in about $25,000, which is just above the $23,000 poverty line for a family of four.

Even the Census Bureau recognizes that its own figures under-represent the number of people in poverty. Its Supplemental Poverty Measure increases, by 50%, the number of Americans who earn between one-half and two times the poverty threshold.

4. Based on household expense totals, poverty is creeping into the top half of America.

A family in the top half, making $60,000 per year, will have their income reduced by a total tax bill of about $15,000 ($3,000 for federal income tax and $12,000 for payroll, state, and local taxes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau agree that food, housing, and transportation expenses will deduct another $30,000, and that total household expenditures will be about $50,000. That leaves nothing.

Nothing, that is, except debt. The median debt level rose to $75,600 in 2009, while the median family net worth, according to the Federal Reserve, dropped from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in

5. Putting it in Perspective

Inequality is at its ugliest for the hungriest people. While food support was being targeted for cuts, just 20 rich Americans made as much from their 2012 investments as the entire 2012 SNAP (food assistance) budget, which serves 47 million people.

And as Congress continues to cut life-sustaining programs, its members should note that their 400 friends on the Forbes list made more from their stock market gains last year than the total amount of the food, housing, and education budgets combined.

Arguments about poverty won't end. Neither should our efforts to uncover the awful truth.