$8 a Gallon Gas?

Are you planning for any changes if fuel costs double this year? What are you willing to do without or how are you otherwise going to stretch those dollars as well know as fuel jumps so does all other commodities?

Some analysts are saying that even $8 a gallon is on the low side for the potential price increase especially if thee is a conflict in the Middle East involving Iran. Military analysts are suggesting that the least aggressive tactic that Iran could employ would be to lay anti-ship mines in the Straits of Hormuz. Which would take the U.S. and probable ally England many weeks to clear. Imagine the sinking of one of our aircraft carriers and/or one large oil transport ship in the Straits. Sure, the very probable U.S. relatiation would be massive, but it would do nothing to ease the price of oil.

Others are suggesting that oil at $200 a barrel/gas at $8+ a gallon would spur a massive downturn of the U.S. economy; causing businesses to lay off people; propell another large stimulus; cause the Federal government to borrow more to pay entitlements; devalue the U.S. dollar and push the Fed into another rounds of Quanitative Easing - which of course if injecting more money into financial institutions further devaling the dollar causing inflation,....and posibly the Survivalist Prepper's fear, a hyper inflationary period.

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul's article, titled "Worried About $6 Gas Prices? Try $8" from ETF Daily is a necessary read. To summarize the key points of this article:

$6 gas in the U.S. may be even a low-ball estimate.

We are now back above $4 per gallon for the first time since May 2011,” “In Europe it is close to the $10 mark.”

Expect a record gas price this summer. The oil market has entered the perfect storm.

We will see a minimum of $6 per gallon gasoline in the United States this summer.”

Military conflict with Iran could throw the $6 price target far off the mark, as approximately 17 percent of the world’s oil supply could be shut out for, not a matter of weeks as the Pentagon has estimated, but months.

There is virtually no limit to the upside for oil prices. The oil price could easily double.

Oil trading above $200 per barrel could easily take gasoline to $8 in the U.S., as a panic to secure already-tight global supplies could shock the American people into another significant downturn in the U.S. economy.

This could turn into really tough times, because the economy will be struggling in that environment, we could see QE3 in the midst of already record high gasoline prices. Now that will be wildly inflationary.”

Nuclear Survival Possible?

I received this e-mail from frankj: ”With the recent building of nuclear devices by North Korea and Iran plus who else we don’t know about, I am thinking that the chances of a nuclear attack from an Armageddon scenario to some localized attack maybe some damn terrorists given a bomb by Iranians all would spell a catastrophe. Some of my prepper pals say that we can about just kiss our butts goodbye in a nuclear attack because the fall out would kill about everything. What do you think the chances are for us to see a nuclear attack?”

UrbanMan’s reply: Frank, you are doing well to think about all collapse possibilities. Perhaps protection and survival plans for a nuclear event would be the hardest to plan and prepare for without a lot of resources,…read money. I think location is a key to survival in a nuclear event. Away from high value targets,…..away from fall out patterns from predictive wind patterns,…and away from refugee routes – and, there will always be survivors.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently published a study from the analysis of the specific implications of nuking the intersection of 16th and K streets NW. The key to the question, it seems, is the size of the bomb. Ten kilotons is considered “small” by nuclear weapon standards and would presumably leave survivors, according to the study. …Within a half-mile radius of the detonation, called the “severe damage zone,” buildings would be destroyed, radiation would be high and the survival rate would be low. The White House, Capitol and Mall would be destroyed. As little as three miles out, the impact would be less severe, including broken windows and minor injuries. But the real disaster would be nuclear fallout, the result of radioactive dust poisoning many in the District, Northern Virginia and Maryland.

I also found a government report on the potential of a nuclear attack on the National Capital Region. I am posting the easier to understand key points below. In any event, the first rule of survival is to understand the threat so you can develop a plan and counter measures.

Contamination vs. Exposure

Fallout contamination is salt- and sand-sized particles that contain unstable (radioactive) atoms that give off energy in the form of penetrating eadiation. Although contamination particles can be stopped by clothing and other barriers, the gamma radiation emitted by the unstable atoms penetrates through clothing, roofs, and walls and can deposit energy in living tissue. It is the exposure and absorption of this energy that is the primary concern and is measured as described below.

Roentgens, Rads, and Rems. Units of Radiation Exposure

• Roentgen (R): A unit of gamma or x-ray exposure in air. It is the primary standard of measurement used in the emergency-responder community in the US. 1,000 milliroentgen (mR) = 1 Roentgen (R).

• Roentgen per hour (R/h): A unit used to express gamma or x-ray exposure in air per unit of time (exposure rate) and the unit most commonly seen on radiation-detection equipment used by responders.

• rad: A unit expressing the absorbed dose of ionizing radiation. Absorbed dose is the energy deposited per unit mass of matter. The units of rad and gray are the units in two different systems for expressing absorbed dose. International unit conversion: 1 rad = 0.01 gray [Gy]; 1 Gy = 100 rad.)

• rem: A unit of absorbed dose that accounts for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of ionizing radiations in tissue (Also called equivalent dose). Not all radiation produces the same biological effect, even for the same amount of absorbed dose; rem relates the absorbed dose in human tissue to the effective biological damage of the radiation. International unit conversion: 1 rem = 0.01 Sieverts [Sv]; 1 Sv = 100 rem.)

For the purpose of this guidance, 1 R (exposure in air) = 1 rad (absorbed dose = 1 rem (whole-body dose). Whole-body doses are calculated for the middle of the body (1.5 m off the ground and 70% of the body-surface exposure), also referred to as the “midline deep dose.”

Estimated fatalities and symptoms associated with acute whole body absorbed doses:

150 initial rad dose - 5 percent chance of dying within 180 days from radiation exposure.

300 initial rad dose - 30-50 percent chance of dying within 180 days from radiation exposure.

600 initial rad dose - 95 percent chance of dying within 180 days from radiation exposure.

It will be initially difficult for those directly affected to assess the scale of devastation. On a clear day, a mushroom cloud might be visible from a distance, but the cloud is unlikely to keep a characteristic shape more than a few minutes and will be blown out of the area in one or more directions in the first few hours.

The most critical life-saving action for the public and responders is to seek adequate shelter for at least the first hour. Another urge to overcome is the desire to flee the area (or worse, run into fallout areas to reunite with family members), which can place people outdoors in the first few minutes and hours when fallout exposures are the greatest.

Those outside or in vehicles will have little protection from the penetrating radiation coming off fallout particles as they accumulate on roofs and the ground.

Sheltering is an early imperative for the public within the broken glass and blast damage area, which could extend for several miles in all directions from a blast. There is a chance that many parts of the area may not be affected by fallout; however, it will be virtually impossible to distinguish between radioactive and non-radioactive smoke, dust, and debris that will be generated by the event.

Potentially dangerous levels of fallout could begin falling within a few minutes. Those outdoors should seek shelter in the nearest solid structure. Provided the structure is not in danger of collapse or fire, those indoors should stay inside and move either below ground (e.g., into a basement or subterranean parking garage) or to the middle floors of a multi story concrete or brick building. Those individuals in structures threatened by collapse or fire, or those in light structures (e.g., single story buildings without basements) should consider moving to an adjacent solid structure or subway. Glass, displaced objects, and rubble in walkways and streets will make movement difficult.

Leaving the area should only be considered if the area becomes unsafe because of fire or other hazards, or if local officials state that it is safe to move. Fallout is driven by upper-atmospheric winds that can travel much faster than surface winds, often at more than 100 miles per hour. Outside the area of broken windows, people should have at least 10 minutes before fallout arrives for the larger multi-kiloton yields. If the detonation were to happen during daylight hours on a day without cloud cover, the fallout cloud might be visible at this distance, although accurately gauging direction could be difficult as the expanding cloud continues to climb and possibly move in more than one direction.

Providing that atmospheric conditions do not obscure visibility, dangerous levels of fallout would be easily visible as particles fall. People should proceed indoors immediately if sand, ash, or colored rain begins to fall in their area.

At 20 miles away, the observed delay between the flash of an explosion and “sonic boom” of the air blast would be more than 1.5 minutes. At this range, it is unlikely that fallout could cause radiation sickness, although outdoor exposure should still be avoided to reduce potential long-term cancer risk. The public at this distance should have some time, perhaps 20 minutes or more, to prepare.

The first priority should be to find adequate shelter. Individuals should identify the best shelter location in their present building, or if the building offers inadequate shelter, consider moving to better shelter if there is a large, solid multistory building nearby. After the shelter itself is secured, attention can be given to acquiring shelter supplies such as batteries, radio, food, water, medicine, bedding, and toiletries.

Although roads could be initially unobstructed at this range (around 20 miles), the possibility of moving the numerous people at risk before fallout arrives is highly unlikely, and those in traffic jams on the road would receive little protection from fallout. At long distances (more than 100 miles), the additional time before fallout arrival might tempt people to evacuate.

However, cloud spread and difficulties associated with predicting possible fallout locations will make avoiding the hazard difficult, even when driving. Although people at this distance will not experience life-threatening levels of fallout, using the extra time to seek the best-quality shelter in the area can help reduce exposures and the long-term risk of cancer.

Stay Indoors.  People should expect to remain sheltered for at least 12 to 24 hours. During that time, the intensity of fallout radiation will decrease greatly, allowing for less hazardous egress from dangerous fallout areas. Unless a given shelter location is considered unsafe due to fire or structural damage, the length of time individuals should remain sheltered depends on instructions from regional emergency management agencies. For those in good shelters, such as a large concrete, brick, or underground structure, optimal shelter times will likely be in terms of days.

In the absence of specific guidance from authorities and adequate supplies of food and water, or for those who are in smaller 2- to 3-story structures or shallow basements, evacuation should be considered after 12 hours. Upon leaving shelter, the best course is to follow routes that take advantage of sheltered passages (subways, underground connectors, or through building lobbies) that lead away from damage and heavy fallout areas. Once clear of potential fallout areas, evacuees should seek a change of clothes (including shoes) and wipe or wash exposed skin surfaces.

Fallout consists of large particles that can be easily brushed off clothing and shoes. The radiation energy given off by fallout particles decays rapidly with time. For this reason early gross decontamination (brushing for example) is better than delayed thorough decontamination (such as a shower). An event of this magnitude will vastly overwhelm available response resources.

Get Clean.  Radioactive fallout particles can spread quickly and remain on the body and clothes until removed. Those in potentially fallout contaminated areas should take off the outer layer of clothing (including shoes) and wipe or wash exposed skin and hair upon leaving a contaminated area.

• Routes make a difference for early evacuees. The exposure impact of route choice is more significant in the first few hours.

• Shelter quality determines decision time. The better the shelter, the longer the time before action is required. For poor shelters, actions should be taken in the first few hours; inadequate shelter, 4–12 hours; for adequate shelters, avoid action before 12 hours unless instructed otherwise.

• Adequate shelter, stay in place. Extended shelter-inplace inside an adequate shelter is almost always preferred over an uninformed evacuation in the first 12 hours. The gains from an informed evacuation before 12 hours are marginal, while the penalty for an uninformed evacuation can be significant.

• Poor shelter, move or evacuate. Early evacuation (at 1 hour) from lower-quality shelters in the Danger Zone can be life-saving.

– Best Strategy For Poor Shelter: Informed evacuation after approximately an hour. However, without an informed route use next strategy.

– Good Strategy for Poor Shelter: Move to a better shelter. Analysis indicates that this can result in a significant reduction of casualties even as early as 20 minutes after detonation.

– Marginal Strategy for Poor Shelter: Uninformed evacuation after approximately an hour and then leave the area, do not move toward the detonation site or directly downwind.

– Bad Strategy for Poor Shelter Extended Shelter in Place.

• In aggregate, the existing Washington , DC structures offered better than adequate protection. If all residents adopted a shelter-in-place strategy, it would reduce the number of potential acute radiation casualties by 98% (there would be an estimated 3,000 fallout casualties out of the 130,000 potential casualties of an unsheltered population).

• For Regional evacuation planning, errors in identifying the centerline and boundaries of high-dose-rate regions can result in poor evacuation routes that eliminate the benefits of evacuation.

• Preplanned evacuation routes may not be the best evacuation route as they may follow the contamination centerline.

• The current federal guidance of sheltering for 12-24 hours in in a shelter is adequate.

Global Financial Instability

Ever heard of the saying “Rat’s leaving the Sinking Ship?”,….how about the thought that the last thing the ruling elite does before the Country collapses is to “Rob the Treasury?”

UrbanSurvivalSkills recently came across two articles that give life to these popular sayings. One article, from American Kabuki, outlines 320 resignations from world banks, investment houses and money funds.

American Kabuki has a long list of these resignations along with bitly links to the articles. I have listed just the U.S. based resignations since Feb 1, 2012, however that is not to say that foreign financial shenanigans do not affect the U.S. It is indeed a world economy and what other countries do and don’t do have a profound effect on our economy. This country would do well to develop our own fossil fuel energy resources to eliminate the security issue of being dependent upon other countries, as well as get back to an economy largely based on agriculture where we, as a country could again feed ourselves.

It should be noted that American Kabuki gives credit to Gabriel for tracking Insurance, Government and Healthcare Resignations. For anyone who wants to conduct their own research, I have included Kabuki's web addresses to the articles, although they are not hyperlinks.

U.S. Based Resignations

2/05/12 ( USA - NY) Morgan's investment banking chairman Joseph Perella quit
http://goo.gl/pG2jF

2/05/12 ( USA - NY) Morgan Stanley investment banking Tarek Abdel-Meguid quit
http://goo.gl/bRv9K

2/06/12 (USA NY) TD Ameritrade, head of retail distribution John Bunch resigns. Bunch is leaving to take the top job at a small investment advisory firm in Kansas City.
http://goo.gl/kgS7M

2/07/12 ( USA ) Bank Of America 's Mortgage Business Chief Barbara Desoer Retires
http://goo.gl/i7AUY

2/08/12 (USA OH) Cleveland International Fund (CIF) private equity fund, A. Eddy Zai launched and led the Cleveland International Fund, an investment outfit that pairs wealthy foreign investors hoping for U.S. residency with job-creating projects. Zai resigned from his job this week, before being indicted in a bank-fraud scheme that, according to investigators, contributed to the collapse of a credit union in Eastlake.
http://goo.gl/tgamf

2/14/12 (USA NY) Goldman Sachs Jeffrey Moslow resigns, an investment banker to companies such as Tyco International Ltd, Nstar, the Boston-based utility, and defense contractor Dyncorp International Inc.
http://goo.gl/7h4O7

2/15/12 ( USA ) Boston Properties (REIT), Executive VP and COO E. Mitchell Norvilleto resigned.
http://goo.gl/AW7X7

2/16/12 (USA IL) Deerfield Capital Management LLC, CEO Daniel Hattori and CEO of CIFC Corp resigned.
http://goo.gl/LLNnD

2/16/12 (USA IL) Deerfield Capital Management LLC, COO Luke Knecht and CEO of CIFC Corp, resigned both positions.
http://goo.gl/LLNnD

2/17/12 (USA NY) Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein out as by summer
http://goo.gl/UjpzD

2/17/12 (USA NY) Harbinger Group Inc. CFO Francis T. McCarron has advised the Company of his resignation effective April 30
http://goo.gl/6il4F

2/20/12 ( USA WA) First Financial Northwest Director Spencer Schneider Quits
http://goo.gl/6Dj0i

2/22/12 ( USA NY) Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Group Chief Howard Wietschner to Retire
http://goo.gl/x4Zsr


3/01/12 (USA FL) Florida Venture Forum [Venture Capital] Exec Dir Robin Lester quits
http://goo.gl/nA8g9

3/01/12 (USA NY) PineBridge Investments said Win Neuger has resigned as chief executive. Neuger helped build AIG's third party asset management business, PineBridge still manages AIG assets
http://goo.gl/SI7kT

3/01/12 (USA NH) Piscataqua Savings Bank CEO Jay Gibson retires
http://goo.gl/uEqDV

3/01/12 (USA OR) Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund (OPERF) senior RE officer Brad Child will retire
http://goo.gl/vcERz

3/02/12 (USA NY) Deutsche Bank Student Loan CEOJohn Hupalo quits to start student loan counseling firm.
http://goo.gl/8kZuc

3/02/12 (USA NY) Citigroup Richard Parsons to step down as chairman
http://goo.gl/BhZ0F

3/04/12 (USA NY) JP Morgan prop trading chief Mike Stewart quits
http://goo.gl/gubPj

3/05/12 ( USA ) Reliance Bancshares chairman Patrick Gideon resigned
http://goo.gl/u6BT4

3/06/12 (USA PA) USA Technologies Inc Bradley M. Tirpak, a nominee of Shareholder Advocates for Value Enhancement,has resigned from its board subsequent to a settlement agreement with the investing group, according to an SEC filing. Provides a network of wireless non-cash transactions, associated financial/network services and energy management. It provides networked credit card and other non-cash systems in the vending, commercial laundry, hospitality and digital imaging industries.
http://goo.gl/8oi7C

3/07/12 ( USA ) BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund co-head Daniel Tubbs, has left the group to pursue other opportunities.
http://goo.gl/CpEzZ

3/07/12 (USA CA) CALSTRS, Pascal Villiger, senior private equity portfolio manager at the $145 billion California State Teachers’ Retirement System resigns. http://goo.gl/ub0ke

3/07/12 ( USA ) Astaire quits Bank of America Merrill to dance to Barclays Capital’s tune
http://goo.gl/Zv6Ny

3/08/12 (USA NY) Schroders, CIO Alan Brown is steps down
http://goo.gl/ZTtYo

3/08/12 ( USA IL) CBOE Executive Patrick Fay Put on Leave Amid SEC Probe
http://goo.gl/x5snO

3/08/12 ( USA NH & RI) Bristol County Savings Bank president E. Dennis Kelly retires after 35 years
http://goo.gl/8KVKn

3/09/12 ( USA ) Cerberus Capital Management LP, CEO Robert Nardelli resigns.
http://goo.gl/9uKVx

3/12/12 ( USA ) John Lewis Partnership Pension Trust, head of investments Andrew Chapman, resigns
http://goo.gl/hevqh

3/12/12 (USA CA) California ’s Department of Financial Institutions, commissioner William Haraf resigned. The DFI did not say why he is leaving.
http://goo.gl/zquTc

3/12/12 ( USA ) ICAP, CEO of the electronic broking business David Rutter step down following a restructuring of the business.
http://goo.gl/SUHqW

3/12/12 ( USA ) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, CEO Bryan Marsal Resigns Title, Remains on as Adviser
http://goo.gl/1K9zV

3/12/12 (USA IL) CME Group Inc, CEO Craig Donohues will step down at year end.
http://goo.gl/lvzgC

American Kabuki makes no claims under what circumstances these individuals have left their positions. However he, as well as I, find the timing of so many resignations extremely curious and a temporal marker in history of high significance. Kabuki cautions that no one should assume that any judgments about the character of these people. Again, it is just curious that so many world financial managers and leaders are leaving.

Another site we found was Shift Frequency built by a woman named Gillian Grannum.


Her point that the Cabal running the show (World Financial Markets) and screwing it up beyond belief, decided the time had come to destroy the American economy en route to their New World Order. She has two interesting articles on her site which I will link to here.

President Signs Law Placing Prior Restraint on Free Speech


Greg Smith’s Resignation Letter From Goldman Sucks er…Sachs

The Sovereign Man Movement

With the recent FBI warning about "Sovereign Man" or "Sovereign Citizen" movements in the news, the mainstream media (sometimes looking for a boogeyman) has taken notice and recently published an article titled "Sovereign Citizens: Radicals Next Door" on ABC News.

The FBI warning was concerned about "case law" and other defense strategies concerning "legalities and issues" of engaging federal law enforcement officers with deadly force when said officers are making "illegal arrests".

Yes, I guess there are people dumb enough to think that they can justify shooting it out with federal officers based on the premise that they are
"sovereign citizens" not subject to the laws of the United States.

Most of the rest of us consider the "Sovereign Man/Sovereign Citizen" movement to be on the fringe, and unfortunately mainstream America can lump otherwise lawful and rational thinking Survivalists into the same category.

The sovereign citizen movement is a loose network of individual and groups who are classified as an "extremist anti-government group" by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as people associated with this movement take a position that they are answerable only to common law and are not subject to any statutes or proceedings at the federal, state or municipal levels. Additionally, "Sovereigns" do not recognize U.S. currency.

UrbanMan's Note: We all may be "not recognizing" U.S. currency soon if the economy keeps heading for the cliff. Everybody have a decent supply of Gold and/or Silver?

By some accounts there are thought to be 100,000 Americans as "hard-core sovereign movement supporters" and another 200,000 are on the fringe of the sovereign movement, although this figure comes from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) which is a well known liberal group. And by definition, liberals tend not to see the value in individual responsibility, which of course is the very basis for us Survivalists prepping for the collapse.

Glenn Beck addresses some of the issues of the Government views on "Sovereign Citizens" in the video below: