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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Urban Survival - Silver and Gold Predictions for 2011 and Beyond received this Anonymous comment from the Post titled "Are Gold and Silver Going to be Worth Anything?". When you need gold and silver they are valuable. When you need food, gold and silver might or might not be valuable. I can tell you from experience that every commodity has it's up's and down's. It certainly looks like PM's will continue to rise, but as sure as the sun will rise in the morning one day the PM bubble will burst too. Not saying don't buy PMs just saying be careful.

UrbanMan replies: Roger the being careful. Being careful in my book is multi-fold. It includes NOT leveraging all my available cash to buy silver or gold. It DOES include buying some silver to ensure I have all my Survival Plan bases covered.

Put it this way, of right now, knowing the collapse possibilities (TEOTWAWKI) Which person would you rather be:

Person A: Twelve months of food and one rifle.

Person B: Six months of food and one rifle, saving enough money to buy some silver, water purification filters, Survival gear, medical supplies, etc.

Sure, some people will say,...with food I can barter for anything else I need.   Yes that's partial true,......if it is available and that other person wants to trade.

I think the idea, in my book, is to be as prepared as you can afford to be, across the board as required against the threats you have wargame as likely.

In the below radio interview, James Turk, talks about his predictions for 2011 and from 2013-2015. Turk predicted that there was a 20% chance for Silver to hit $50 a ounce in 2010. He says that in 2011 that possibility has increased significantly that we'll see $50 an ounce Silver and Gold at $8,000 an ounce.

By my calculations, with Gold at $8,000 an ounce,..Silver should/would $200 an ounce, based on the current 40 to one ratio.

I'm NOT looking at like "Holy Cow, in the event of TEOTWAWKI, I'll be rich!", .....I am looking at it like "Jesus Christ, what kind of world would we be living in at Silver being $50 an ounce or more? Will food be available and at what cost?; What's the Security situation going to be? I need some Silver in order to buy the things I may need to assist in Survival".

The Gold to Silver ratio is now 40 to one. The historic ratios are more like 16 or 20 to one. Currently th 40 to one ratio is falling making Silver more valuable percentage wise than Gold.

Anyway, would it too redundant to suggest everyone have some Silver put away? I also suggest Survivalists make good use of the internet, particular financial blogs, and You Tube videos, to enhance their understanding of the current crisis. Most often, I play a video or audio while I work on something else and when a comment or key word grabs my interest, I'll go back and watch/listen more closely. I guess this is the Survivalists version of multi-tasking in a research and planning scope.


  1. I bought silver dollars in 1974 for $5 apiece. In 1979-80 when silver peaked at $50/oz I held onto my silver for the long run. I began buying gold coins in 1984, a few each month. The lowest I paid was $230/oz and the most I paid was about $330/oz. I had over 100 ozs of gold goins. I again bought silver for a few years beginning in 1992, over 1500 ozs of rounds. I held these for years and years with no profit while the stock market doubled every other year. I finally had the chance to sell recently when gold and silver finally took off. Yes I finally made a nice profit but I could have made twice as much perhaps four times as much if I had not invested in PM's.
    My feeling about PM is if you have lots of time OR if you are buying it for "insurance" then go for it. But it is not really an investment it is a "bet". You are betting that the economy will crash so you can finally make a profit. When it finally happens you will pat yourself on the back and remind yourself how smart you are but if you do the math there are far better investments both in good economies and bad. But here is the important thing to know; at some point in this "bubble" the price of PMs will be two or three times it's value the day/week after the PM market crashes. Your $2000 gold will be worth $1000 and the following week worth $500. Your $50 silver will be worth $25 or $15 or who knows. It will happen quickly and will/may not return to those stratospheric values for another 20 years or so. Now I HOPE this happens because it will mean that the economy is coming back. I know all the theories; we may never have full employment again or we might have a long depression, yada, yada, yada. Well! It's gonna do what It's gonna do and eventually it will come back. I would prefer jobs for our people and fiscal sanity by our government over expensive PMs. I can't predict the future, no one can. But just like the real estate bubble burst so will the PM bubble. So buy some if you want, buy a lot if you like to gamble, but recognize it for what it is.

  2. From UrbanMan. Great advice in previous comment. I'm not interested in patting my self on the back nor getting "rich". My interest in PM's, really only silver, is to have a way to purchase or barter for something I need IF it comes to that.
    I too, hope for a better economy if those ass clowns in Wash D.C. can ever get it right. I hope to pass on my silver to my grandchildren. I hope I never have to kill another human being again, or even fire a shot in anger. But I have learned to prepare for the worst.
    Again, great advice and I like the analogy to a "bet". Nope, I'm buying for insurance and I don't go without other things just to ensure I have a little silver. I only started buying small amounts recently after a 20+ year hiatus. Thanks for your comment. I hope others will read it.

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