Survival Planning - The Economy is Not Getting Better!

Don't let the compromise on the Federal FY11 Budget fool you into thinking the economy is better or that we have staved off an economic collapse. The next budget fights are much more important and will have a greater impact on the speed of inflation and the path of an economic collapse.

The first one will be whether or not to extend the debt ceiling - the limit on U.S. borrowing, and the second one being the FY12 Federal Budget.

The best case scenario for continued life as we know it, is a vote NOT to increase the debt ceiling AND NO to new printing of money (called Quanitative Easing or QE) to remedy low cash flow. However this would mean that the Chinese and to a lesser extent the Japanese continue to buy our debt to finance our Federal expenditures. The likelyhood of this hapening is remote. The Chinese are battling their own inflation and also desire to replace the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency...... enroute to seeing the U.S. as a second rate economy and world power. The Japanese are also over their head in debt and face massive rebuilding and political upheaval from the earthquake, Tusnami and nuclear power plant disasters.

So boys and girls, there is nothing to indicate an easing of Survival Preparations,....in fact, recent events and the Federal Government's admission of and inability to fix the debt, ease rising prices on fuel and commodities and inability to divert a collapsing economy all point to a necessary increase in Survival preparation.

Chris Martenson's newsletter with an article by Paul Tustain, sum up the debt issue as it related to a collpasing economy and the value of Gold and Silver:

"When a country's public debt exceeds 90% of GDP, that is the magic number. You get to 90%, there is no way back, and that is the number that the U.S. is going through pretty much as we speak. It is also the number which the UK has gone through; all of the PIGS are going through it, as well. They are all going past the 90% debt to GDP ratio. Obviously, Japan is miles past it already. It's up to 200%+. There does not appear, in the historical analysis, to be any great likelihood of getting back from that level of debt safely. There is this strong evidence that above 90% debt to GDP, you will experience either a cataclysmic default or some form of very serious inflation."

"So observes Paul Tustain, gold market analyst and founder of BullionVault. In his view, gold serves as a beacon who's price is currently signalling the monteary system is in grave danger."

So we are not out of the storm,...if anything we are in the eye of the storm with the backside of it stronger than anyone can predict.

Urban Survival - Silver and Gold Predictions for 2011 and Beyond

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received this Anonymous comment from the Post titled "Are Gold and Silver Going to be Worth Anything?". When you need gold and silver they are valuable. When you need food, gold and silver might or might not be valuable. I can tell you from experience that every commodity has it's up's and down's. It certainly looks like PM's will continue to rise, but as sure as the sun will rise in the morning one day the PM bubble will burst too. Not saying don't buy PMs just saying be careful.

UrbanMan replies: Roger the being careful. Being careful in my book is multi-fold. It includes NOT leveraging all my available cash to buy silver or gold. It DOES include buying some silver to ensure I have all my Survival Plan bases covered.

Put it this way,...as of right now, knowing the collapse possibilities (TEOTWAWKI) Which person would you rather be:

Person A: Twelve months of food and one rifle.

Person B: Six months of food and one rifle, saving enough money to buy some silver, water purification filters, Survival gear, medical supplies, etc.

Sure, some people will say,...with food I can barter for anything else I need.   Yes that's partial true,......if it is available and that other person wants to trade.

I think the idea, in my book, is to be as prepared as you can afford to be, across the board as required against the threats you have wargame as likely.

In the below radio interview, James Turk, talks about his predictions for 2011 and from 2013-2015. Turk predicted that there was a 20% chance for Silver to hit $50 a ounce in 2010. He says that in 2011 that possibility has increased significantly that we'll see $50 an ounce Silver and Gold at $8,000 an ounce.

By my calculations, with Gold at $8,000 an ounce,..Silver should/would $200 an ounce, based on the current 40 to one ratio.

I'm NOT looking at like "Holy Cow, in the event of TEOTWAWKI, I'll be rich!", .....I am looking at it like "Jesus Christ, what kind of world would we be living in at Silver being $50 an ounce or more? Will food be available and at what cost?; What's the Security situation going to be? I need some Silver in order to buy the things I may need to assist in Survival".

The Gold to Silver ratio is now 40 to one. The historic ratios are more like 16 or 20 to one. Currently th 40 to one ratio is falling making Silver more valuable percentage wise than Gold.

Anyway, would it too redundant to suggest everyone have some Silver put away? I also suggest Survivalists make good use of the internet, particular financial blogs, and You Tube videos, to enhance their understanding of the current crisis. Most often, I play a video or audio while I work on something else and when a comment or key word grabs my interest, I'll go back and watch/listen more closely. I guess this is the Survivalists version of multi-tasking in a research and planning scope.

Financial Survival Planning – Melt Value of Silver Coins

We recently received another question from our post on Financial Survival Planning. “In your Urban Survival Planning - Financial Survival post you mentioned that as a guide we should have $1,000.00 face value of pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half-dollars per person. I know that pre-’65 Quarters have some silver, but could you explain the silver value of the other coins and how much they are worth?”

Yes Sir, here’s the deal: There are a lot of U.S. coins, circulating or not, that contain silver. We’ll call that “melt’ value. As of February 8, 2010 the melt value of these U.S. coins are as follows:

1942 – 1945 Jefferson War Nickel, $0.05 face value, worth $0.85 melt value

1916 – 1945 Mercury Dime $0.10 face value, worth $1.10 melt value

1946 – 1964 Roosevelt Dime, $0.10 face value, worth $1.10 melt value

1932-1964 Washington Quarter, $0.25 face value, worth $2.74 melt value

1916-1947 Walking Liberty Half Dollar, $0.50 face value, $5.48 melt value

1948 – 1963 Franklin Half Dollar, $0.50 face value, $5.48 melt value

1964 Kennedy Half Dollar, $0.50 face value, $5.48 melt value

1965-1970 Kennedy Half Dollar, $0.50 face value, $2.24 melt value

1878-1921 Morgan Dollar, $1.00 face value, $11.71 melt value

1921 – 1935 Peace Dollar, $1.00 face value, $11.71 melt value

1971 – 1976 Eisenhower Dollar, $1.00 face value, $4.79 melt value

The above coins’ melt value does not consider their worth to a collector. A proper appraisal of each coin prior to sale (during normal times) should be accomplished.

You can also prepare with silver by purchasing Silver Bullion in the form of bullion bars or silver rounds. There is usually a premium for each piece, bar or round, above the price of the silver you are paying for.

We remember the oil crunch of 1978 or 1979 where gas stations were advertising a gallon of gas as so much in conventional currency or a much smaller amount (face value) of U.S. silver coinage. That’s the way we envision another severe economic crunch. Paper money being useful only for a short period of time, then silver and gold would be used as a currency before bartering for goods and services would take over as the major form of currency.

Stay on top of U.S. silver coin melt value (click here)