Survival Roulette Wheel

I received this correspondence from "Jerry":............"Although this appears from as anonymous, call me "Jerry".  I am a former Marine Captain and have saw combat in Iraq, before I got out of the Corps.  I am now an insurance advisor for a nationally recognized company, have a side line business managing investments for some people (some of my old Marines for some), and have a network marketing business as well.  I live in a suburban area while it is not a gated community, we are governed by a Home Owners Association (HOA).  Most of the residents are older than my wife and I, and we are in our mid thirties.    

My wife doesn't necessarily agree with my preps.  She may even think my actions are part of PTSD.  I really don't care at this point, but I see a major event happening or starting to happen soon, so I want to be ready.   Next month the HOA is going to have elections again.  My wife is against me even attending these meetings, which so far I have not.   I think it prudent to be involved if for nothing else but to know the people in our area and have some type of ability to influence the actions of many and group think.  We live in a pretty good area, only one two lane road entering in and exiting out of our area.   Highly defensible for a Platoon of Marine riflemen, but not for a bunch of non-organized civilians. 

I am having a hard time explaining myself to my wife that I am not trying to take over the HOA.  In other activities I have became involved in, I have often found myself in a leadership role and I think my wife is worried that this will consume my time and degrade our businesses, and our family.   Any ideas on how to get her to see what I am going to do is a prudent measure?"

UrbanMan's reply:  Jerry, first of all, thanks you for your service.   Were you and your wife married when you were in the Corps?  If so, she ought to understand that your were, and are a leader and will continue to be in any segment of your life.  

Second of all, it seems like you are working like crazy on your life,....insurance, investment and a home based business.  Good for you. 

I would explain that trying to understand the HOA much like you did already with trying to get to know people and the credibility you establish with these fellow homeowners will go along way to providing some leadership or direction in the case of a collapse where, in all probability, your neighbor will have to stand together or perish separately.

It's kinda like this:  Imagine a Roulette wheel at the Casino.  You have 20 chips.  If you put all your chips onto one number, you have a small chance of winning anything.  If you place most of your chips on the three or four numbers you think will win, and then place maybe one chip on numbers that you are less sure off, you'll have better chances of winning something.......risk mitigation.  You understand this from the Corps where risk assessment and risk management are a fact of life.

If you think food and protection-security are the biggest risks then you put a high percentage of your resources into stored food, survival site selection and survival firearms.  If you think that even in the collapse, electricity won't be a problem, then you may save the money you would put into solar, wind and other energy technologies and use it for other higher priorities.  If you think that there will be no exchange of commerce except for barter and that precious metals will not be worth anything, then you would not be stocking Gold and Silver.   If you think there is a chance, however small, of being able to use Gold and Silver then you may put a minimum amount of your resources procuring precious metals. 

I think the idea of getting involved at least on the edges of your HOA can pay off big dividends if/when the SHTF comes.   The good thing a HOA would have is connectivity within that community. Placing names to addresses.  I know a local urban HOA that hosts gardening classes each month......ready made for converting to vegetables rather than flowers.   

Did you read a previous post from Selco who survived Bosnia in 1992 to 1995?  He said it best when it takes a team or a group to survive.  The HOA is part of the team you have.  Most of the people in the HOA will see you as a leader whether or not you serve on the board or not.   Getting involved in the HOA will give you the contacts to develop this credibility so it can be exploited when you need to.  Hooah Captain, Drive On.

Financial Collapse in Americans Cities, Counties and States

From the Yahoo! article titled: 9 American Cities and Counties Going Broke

Pension plans, rising prices, depleted population and therefore reduced tax base all contribute to the following cities going broke. Image the potential chaos when city and county pensioners, food bank recipients and city county employees are not paid.

Imagine if the city/county utilities fail because of lack of money....either to pay for fuel, maintenance, etc., or just fail because they cannot pay their workers. The aftermath of these local governments going broke may give us some insight to a larger U.S. collapse.

These are nine American cities or counties facing financial collapse:

1. Central Falls, RI
2. Pontiac, MI
3. Jefferson County, AL
4. Harrison, NJ
5. Detroit, MI
6. Salem, NJ
7. Riverdale, IL
8. Strafford County, NH
9. Camden, NJ

Not only is this happening with cities and counties, several states are near collapse.  2.2 million unemployed in California.  1 million of have been unemployed over one year.  Another 530,000 unemployed people have just exhausted their 3 years of unemployment benefits.  There are another 6 million Americans who are scheduled to lose federal unemployment benefits in 2012.  Almost one third of them (1.8 million) will be running out of these benefits in January 2012 alone. 

Illinois' is almost bankrupt.  The state had to borrow billions of dollars this year to pay for unfunded state pensions.   Business is leaving Illinois at about the same rate they are exiting California (5 viable businesses leaving every two weeks) due to unreasonable state regulations and anti-business taxation.   

Welfare rates in heretofore financially stable areas is increasing dramactically.  This is obvious due to the poor economy nationwide, dwindling employment opportunities, and changing demographics as there is a hidden exodus of people all over the country moving trying to find a sustainable way to live. 


Imagine what will happen to the already existing and currently expanding anti-capitalist demonstration being enacted across the country. Fueled to a large extent by liberal, leftist and union groups (sorry for being redundant) a hotter catalyst for these demonstrations, who currently only have a vague point, could be the
financial collapse of one or two middle to large sized population centers.

Some of these high population dense centers are going to cause follow on problems for outlying communities from any number of reasons: refugee traffic; collapsed logistics chains of supply from warehousing areas or supply distribution centers; utilities breakdown on water, electrical, consumer vehicle fuels or natural gas; and increased crime.

If you are near any of the nine population centers listed above you should be weighing the risks and possible threat streams. If you are near ANY population centers you should do the same.

Selco's SHTF School

I tell people that as Americans we have very few examples of SHTF scenarios from which to draw lessons learned and conclusions from. Basically the Civil War, which happened 150 years ago, and the Great Depression of the 1930’s are our national history and sources for hard times. We also utilize novels based on potential causes of and the aftermath of some type of collapse event,….be it EMP or economic collapse. Most Survivalists have read “Patriots”, “One Second After”, “Lights Out” and possibly the new Rawles’ novel “Survivors”.

However, what I didn’t realize until I read Selco’s posts on Survivalistboards was that this country is full of transplanted Americans or otherwise people who have escaped terrible situations in other countries and have immigrated to the U.S.  They have a wealth of knowledge to share with us. 

I welcome Selco’s website, http://shtfschool.com as an excellent resource for first hand experience and lessons learned from his survival of the Bosnian conflict. Great website Selco!

Planning to Survive Alone

UrbanSurvivalSkills received the following comment or e-mail (can’t remember which) but I have taken out key words in order to provide some OPSEC to the writer who we’ll call “Bob”. Bob wrote,......I have been reading your site for several months now. I am a retired military engineer, I served 30+ yrs. I have always been a closet "survivalist". I served nine tours in various parts of the planet and am very much aware of what can happen when things breakdown. Now while I agree with 90% of what you say, especially about survival being a team effort, my question to you is this: What can a single individual do to prepare, and what advice can you give to someone who through circumstance must go it alone? I have stocked food, guns are no problem and I reload for everything but shotgun. I have no stock of precious metals and frankly I don't think gold or silver would help much except in the very short term. I keep cash on hand and do pay attention to news items (mostly financial news) I think I am about half way to the level of preparedness I want. In a crisis what measures should I take for security? Other than the obvious electronic options (all requiring power sources of some type) what should I take into consideration? Thanks for your comments. Regards Bob

UrbanMan Replies: Bob, you’re an old guy like me. That alone gives you an edge because you’ll think through your situations and develop your requirements from that and not act as hastily. It’s a given that the fact is Survival is a team sport,…. but you are alluding to having to go it alone. If you do not have the ability to build a team there will be some priorities for you as an individual survivalist. A couple of those priorities may be:

Your survival location needs to be very secure. Remote area, defensible ground, observable approach routes, covered and/or concealed Bug Out or escape routes all carry a bigger importance as you may have to rely on them more quickly than a larger team. This may have to be an austere environment if you expect to ride it out without compromise. Be careful about brushing out or reducing sign off of normal roads that lead to accessing your place. You can leverage your security using mechanical and electronic means for early warning devices. Since you have a military engineer background as well as the availability of numerous publications, you can simply fashion early devices from mousetraps, trip wire and flashlights and/or snap caps….particularly to cover approach routes and dead space. You may be able to wire a solar panel and disguise it well enough, maybe with remote cables, to power a game camera that will send a picture over the air to cell phone or lap top.

Commercial or field expedient spike strips may help you protect vehicle capable routes to your location. These would need to be placed at a location that a vehicle would travel in order to setup, assembly or otherwise attack you. This really goes for any mechanical early warning device.

In the event of a catastrophic collapse with absence of civilian or military law, command detonated home made explosive devices may be a force multiplier for your situation. Although I would always caution people against violating state and federal laws governing explosive devices. Maybe an explosives license is in order to be legal. People reading this post – do not think I am advocating the violation of any existing BATFE regulation concerning explosives or destructive devices, because I am not. However, I would assume that in a total collapse scenario the inhibitions against breaking such regulations and federal law may not be a concern to some people.

At the very least I would have some solar power generating capability and an AM/FM/UHF/SSB type radio if not a full blown HAM radio setup. This will allow you to stay abreast of the situation as well as not feel too isolated.

As for cash and/or precious metals…..I would re-consider having at least some silver to go along with your cash on hand. This would be primarily for emergency purchases at, or just after, the collapse beginning, or further into chaos of it all. So I would convert some of my cash holdings to silver. It will at least hold it’s value when paper fiat currency loses it’s value.

Items for barter would be good also. Consider small items that when you normally buy 2, buy four, such as butane lighters, socks, boxes of band aids, iso-alcohol, soap, heirloom seeds, batteries, etc.,…the list is endless. These small items would allow you to travel longer distances, enhancing your security and better protecting the location of your place, if and when to go make contact with other people.

The following books may help determine early warning and booby trap solutions for your safe area. Good luck.