U.S. Military Prepares for Global Unrest Amid Climate Fears

Op-Editorial piece featured on-line, written by Marlene Cimons of Climate Nexus for LiveScience, and brought to my attention by a reader who stated that "if the military is planning on contingencies missions for global warning chaos, surely they have to be planning contingencies for economic collapse, martial law, etc, etc." Well, James you are right about the military having contingency plans for about everything. These are called OPLANS. Doesn't mean the military wants to execute these plans, just being prepared.


Though Earth's shifting climate evokes many images, civil unrest usually isn't one of them. Yet, a warming planet could have a profound impact on national security, both in the United States and abroad. This time, the threat isn't from terrorism or a single enemy, but from natural disasters occurring on an unprecedented scale.

Acts of nature fueled by a warming climate — for example, floods and prolonged drought — may lead to disrupted migration, food and water shortages, and other public health crises — which, in turn, could prompt civil and political instability. Those impacts would pose a particularly profound threat for people in countries with fragile governments, including key U.S. strategic interests.

This threat has Pentagon officials worried enough to speak out and to invest in research to better understand the relationships among conflict, socioeconomic conditions and climate. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) plans to use the data to predict future threats and develop ways to cope with them.

Under its highly selective Minerva social-science program, the DOD has awarded researchers at the University of Maryland a three-year, $1.9 million grant to develop models that will help policymakers anticipate what could happen to societies under a range of potential climate-change scenarios.

"It's likely that physical and economic disruptions resulting from climate change could heighten tensions in sensitive areas of the world," said Elisabeth Gilmore, an assistant professor at the University of Maryland's school of public policy and the study's lead researcher. "The environmental changes from climate change can have important effects on our well-being and security. We need to better understand these interactions."

Her team plans to use statistical models and case studies to identify the best predictors of climate-related conflict, and then use the data and a novel simulation method to generate forecasts of conflict over a range of socioeconomic and climate-change scenarios. Finally, the project will identify a range of military and policy interventions that could reduce the occurrence of climate-related civil conflict.

The Pentagon has been concerned about the national security implications of climate change for quite some time, and military officials have continued to speak out about them.

For example, Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command, repeatedly has warned of the national security dangers of climate change. In fact, earlier this year, he said global warming was "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."

In 2007, CNA, a Pentagon-funded think tank that conducts in-depth research and analysis, released a report from a panel of retired senior military officers and national security experts who predicted that extreme weather events prompted by climate shifts could disrupt the U.S. way of life and cause already weak governments to fall, particularly in many Asian, African and Middle Eastern nations where marginal living standards already exist.

Moreover, the report warned that the United States may find itself drawn into these situations to help provide stability before conditions worsen, before they are exploited by extremists or after a conflict has begun. Even stable governments, like the United States' and those of nations in Europe, could be pressured to take in large numbers of immigrants and refugees as drought increases and food production dwindles in Latin America and Africa, the report added.

Some researchers have suggested that framing climate change as a threat to national security and public health, rather than to the environment, might make the issue more relevant and meaningful to many conservative Americans and others who tend to deny or dismiss it. But, surprisingly, recent research published in Climatic Change by Teresa Myers of George Mason University and her colleagues indicated that such seems to make those individuals angry.

The researchers weren't sure why this approach elicited an angry response, but they wonder whether the climate-change deniers resented an attempt to connect national security — an issue they care about — with climate change, an issue they tend to dismiss. Or, they may have been upset with the researchers for presenting claims about global warming and national security they did not think were authentic or credible.

Instead, perhaps the doubters should read the words of retired U.S. Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan, chairman of CNA's military advisory board and the U.S. Army's former chief of staff. He seems to believe that enough scientific evidence of climate change's impact exists to be sobering — and that it deserves the U.S. government's attention.

"We seem to be standing by —and, frankly, asking — for perfectness in science,"' Sullivan wrote in the 2007 CNA report. "People are saying they want to be convinced, perfectly. They want to know the climate-science projections with 100 percent certainty. Well, we know a great deal, and even with that, there is still uncertainty. But the trend line is very clear. We never have 100 percent certainty. We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That's something we know. You have to act with incomplete information. You have to act based on the trend line. You have to act on your intuition sometimes."

Survival Ammo and Guns

I received this e-mail from a reader: "I am 63 year old man, widower, with my child and grandchildren living across the country, so I am pretty much by myself. I don't want to be anyone's patsy so I am getting somewhat ready for a real bad scenario where the society turns south. I live on a fixed budget but am pretty dang frugal and have stocked alot of food, mostly canned and dry goods. I'm a little short in the guns column having just a .357 magnum revolver, a 9mm handgun and a .30-06 hunting rifle. But for the life of me I can't find any ammunition. I'd like to get another rifle like an M-1A or AR-15,...I used both in Viet Nam,...but damn sure don't want to get a gun and have no ammunition for it. Do you think I absolutely need a military style rifle? Do you think the ammunition shortage will soon pass?"

UrbanMan replies:  There are indications that some ammunition supplies are coming back slowly.  I know several people that check daily if not twice daily on ammunition availability in a wide rnge of stores,..gun stores, chain sorting good stores and Wal-mart.  I say get ammo when and where you can - I would not wait for the deals.

Look for the on-line ammunition distributors such as Natchez Shooters Supply, Ammo-Man, Cheaper Than Dirt, Sportsmans Guide, even Cabelas. 

I hope you know that you can shoot .38 Special in your .357 magnum revolver.  If not, then add that to your list to look for as well.  If you can join a Civilian Marksmanship Program approved gun club, you can be a CMP member and order .30-06 ammunition directly from the CMP.  It may take 6 months or longer, but a case of ammunition being delivered by UPS one day is a nice suprise. 

Yes, I would obtain the excellent M1A1 or an AR platform if you can afford it.  You'll need more than just the gun.  A good supply of magazines - I would consider a dozen to be minimally sufficient.  Probably a magazine carrying method such as an assault vest or magazines pouches at least.  I would also consider a good 12 gauge pump shotgun as well   That would complete a good survival-SHTF-collapse battery of firearms in my mind.

Some people are creating innovative ways to track and find ammunition supplies.  One such site is Ammo-can.net  .  There is a new web application that is making finding local sources of ammo easier during the current ammo shortage.  The developer say's "Contrary to popular belief, many retailers are getting ammo shipments on a regular basis right now. It’s just that ammo is selling approximately 30-50 times faster than it was prior to December, so at any given time shelves are likely to be empty.

If you have a lot of time on your hands you can travel to your local Wal Mart or other retailer everyday and check their stock and hope you get lucky.  Ammo-can.net has near real time availability of ammo for most Wal Mart stores. It doesn’t look like the website is 100% perfect yet, but it does seem to work. According to the site, my local Wal Mart had limited stock of 9mm Winchester ammo. I went right down to the store and low and behold, there was a box of 9mm.

Note, you may have to hit the Force Check link to get the most accurate stock levels. After you run the Force Check you have to wait about one minute for the page to refresh. "

6 Facts that Foretell the Slide Into A Economic Collapse

Statistics from Kyle Becker on the Independent Journal Review, in an article titled "6 Economic Stats That Will Make You Wanna Cry." Copy and send these to your friends who do not think things are bad enough to have a SHTF plan. Or at least try and figure out how are you going to pay bills and buy food once the food crisis hits, government goes broke, hyper inflation sets in, and this country generally slides into the third world status that we seem to be heading for.

1. 101 Million Food Aid Recipients

"The number of Americans receiving subsidized food assistance from the federal government has risen to 101 million, representing roughly a third of the U.S. population.... That means the number of Americans receiving food assistance has surpassed the number of private sector workers in the U.S.." [CNS News, July 7th, 2013]

2. 54 Straight Months of 7.5% Unemployment or Above

"Since January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, the United States has seen 54 straight months with the unemployment rate at 7.5 percent or higher, which is the longest stretch of unemployment at or above that rate since 1948"... [CNS News, July 5th. 2013]

3. Long-Term Unemployment

"Of the 11.8 million jobless Americans in June, 4.3 million had been out of work six months or longer. There were 1 million fewer long-term jobless than last year, but their ranks remain way above the previous high-water mark of 2.8 million in 1983." [Huffington Post, July 5th, 2013]

4. Labor Participation Rate

"The number of people not in the labor force which in March soared by a massive 663,000 to a record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work... And even worse, the labor force participation rate plunged from an already abysmal 63.5% to 63.3% - the lowest since 1979! [ZeroHedge, April 2013]

5. Disability Recipients

"The total number of people in the United States now receiving federal disability benefits hit a record 10,962,532 million in April, which exceeds the 10,815,197 people who live in the nation of Greece." [CNS News, May 2013]

6. Poverty Rate Skyrockets

Finally: "As the president began the first year of his second term, the U.S. poverty rate rose to a level not seen since the 1960s... The Census Bureau says that 50 million Americans, roughly one in six — almost 17% — are living below the poverty line... apparently 20% of the nation's children are living in poverty." [IBD, April 2013]

Bear Grylls on Survival Myths and Mistakes

Whenever the discussion about Bear Grylls comes up, people are heavily opinionated about him. I actually like his shows, but I remember it's still a show, however one could learn something from watching. While wilderness survival skills may be a secondary importance to building a survival team, stocking for SHTF and having a Bug Out plan, the benefit of such survival skills is that it can give you the confidence of being able to survive on your own with practically nothing, albeit the point of preparation is to ensure that never happens!

This is an article posted on a Yahoo travel site and also announces Grylls new television show.

Myth 1: One of the most common myths is that if your car breaks down in the desert, you should walk away and try to find help. That is not a good idea—people die because of it! Thinking it’s only a few miles to the nearest town, they’re found dead two or three miles from their car because they underestimated how brutal and tiring the desert can be.

Stay where you are, make yourself safe, and wait for rescue.

Myth 2: People think that because water is clear and free-running in a mountain stream, it’s fine to drink it. In actuality, you don’t know what’s in that stream. There could be a dead animal upriver!

Clear, clean-looking fresh water isn’t necessarily safe to drink. You should always boil water before you drink it to make sure you don’t get giardiasis, which can make you throw up or give you diarrhea. Clear water isn’t necessarily clean water, and beware of mountain streams.

Myth 3: Another common myth is that if you’re lost for any length of time, you’ve got to find food. That really isn’t true, and you can actually survive for weeks and weeks without it.

Your priorities should be finding shelter and water, especially since in most places you’ll be dead in three days without water. Eating food will also dehydrate you faster, so focus on getting water before food.

ROOKIE MISTAKES

I made my first rookie mistake was when I was about 8. I was with my dad in the mountains when a storm came down, and we thought, “Oh, we know the way back down the mountain, we’ll just head down.” But we couldn’t see where we were going and we ended up heading the wrong way.

We spent the whole night wandering around, absolutely exhausted, disoriented, and very cold.Finally, by good fortune, we stumbled across a little trail and eventually found a way back. The lesson there is if there’s a blizzard, don’t try and beat it. Concentrate on making yourself safe and getting out of the wind; find shelter however you can. It’s the same in a desert sandstorm. People push on in sandstorms thinking they can find a way out when in reality they’re never going to beat it and should focus on staying sheltered and safe.

One of the biggest mistakes I see is when people with egos write checks their bodies can’t cash. A classic example is when people get summit fever. They get close to a mountain and when they run out of time and energy, they push on even when the signs are saying they should turn back. They end up stuck in the mountain in the dark or dropping off the mountain the wrong way because they get too tired. Summit fever is a very dangerous problem; it kills people on mountains because they start breaking their own rules.

Often, people make a rookie mistake by going off on their own on what they think is a simple hike, and they don’t tell anyone where they’re going or when they’ll be back. Even a nice, easy hike can turn very ugly if you get lost or twist an ankle and no one knows you’re missing or where to look for you. No matter how modest the trek, tell people where you’re going and when you’re due back. That way, you know that there will be help coming if you don’t return.

(Photo: Paul Drinkwater/NBC)Another dangerous rookie mistake is when people underestimate how debilitating altitude and the effects of altitude sickness can be. Everything is worse and more extreme at high altitude; you’re fighting dehydration, altitude sickness, the cold, and the wind. An action that’s totally straightforward to perform at sea level can become impossible at high altitude. High up in the mountains I’ve seen people—myself included—reduced to crawling on their hands and knees along something you’d just run up at sea level. Survival and even simple actions become much harder at high altitudes.

Sometimes, though, you need to break your own rules and trust your instincts. A good adventurer knows when to do that and when not to. There have been times while we’ve been filming when it was right to push on through a storm, and then there have been times when it seemed right to follow a steep mountain ravine down a path and it actually turned out to be pretty precarious and dangerous.

You have to give yourself a large margin of error, at least in the wild. You’ve got to anticipate the worst, and consider that if you or someone else gets injured you need to be able to still carry out your decision. And take your time to make that decision, because the repercussions of your choices are ones that you’ll be living with for a long time.

Ultimately, though, the best way to learn survival methods comes from seeing and doing. And if you don’t want to go through the experience yourself, you can see rookies learn how to survive by trial and error and deal with the consequences of their mistakes by watching “Get Out Alive with Bear Grylls” on NBC, Monday nights at 9.