Louisiana Survival Rehearsal

I talked to my friend, I'll call him William for the sake of this article, who is in Louisiana. We talked several times via cell phone before connectivity became problematic during Hurricane Isaac.

William's survival group of people consist of three families, who have the plan to consolidate at one location (Williams rural ranch style house, for any collapse,.. .....weather related, economic collapse, or you name it. They used this plan to wait out the extreme weather and other threats brought about by Hurricane Isaac.

At their Bug In House they have spent the years after Hurricane Katrina making this site more self sufficient. Trees around the house were cleared to give better visibility and, if necessary, fields of fire. All the wood was cut and stored giving them almost 5 cords of wood on hand to go with the wood burning oven that William said he installed in his living room, although unnecessary for this heating needs most of the year, especially during the warmer months of Hurricane season.

Tons of dirt were re-located or brought in to provide a raised donut around the house and sloping off to low ground to protect against the flooding brought about by heavy rains.

Two gasoline powered generators power the necessary appliances and lights after the power goes down. They have three refrigerators and have a rotation plan so they don't have to provide power to all of the refrigerators at the same time. When I talked to William he was in the process of ensuring the generators was positioned to run either the refrigerator in the house or the two refrigerators in the garage, as well as the light arrays he has in the house.

He said the days before the Hurricane he and his partner families were able to pickup some last minute items like fuel (for the generators), batteries, candles, some baked items and canned goods.

My friend's location, while I have not seen it, is described as a rural area with a small steam running close to the property line it providing an alternative access, both ingress and egress, to the property via a flat bottomed boat.

There is one long drive way from the house to a hardball road road. This hard ball road crosses a small river which in heavy rains floods out as I am told.

My friend called me to let me know that all three families, counting six adults, two teenagers and an 6 year old were on site doing last minute prep in a pretty heavy rain when a dark colored truck came down the road towards their house. While on the three people covered from the house, and one of the other adult males went to the back of the house to watch the rear, William went out to approach the truck. William was carrying an M-4 on a sling. William thought the people in the truck saw him with a slung weapon so they rapidly turned around and left. This was apparently the only excitement they had during this Hurricane/ Tropical Storm.

Three days later I e-mailed William as connectivity came back and asked him what his lessons learned were. This is the edited version of what he wrote back:

1. Develop a water catchment system. We had way too much rain (potential drinking water and for other uses) lost.
2. Solar Panels. They don't work in overcast or rainy weather, which is primarily why we don't have any. But are now thinking the need but would have to make it a priority to lay out solar panels when sunny conditions make it worthwhile.
3. Increase fuel storage for generators.
4. Look into a wind generator for additional power supply and battery re-charging.
5. Install early warning system, actually two - one mechanical and one electronic, for the drive way entrance. Did not like to discover a visitor (the truck) when it only 50 yards from the front door.
6.  Install a spot light so that approaching vehicles can be spot lighted, diminishing the occupants vision and helping protect an approach from the house.
7. Develop some obstacles along the river side so if anyone approached from that direction they would be channelized where more early warning systems could help detect them.

Well, if you don;t learn nothing - then at least learn from your mistakes.   Good point, William.   

Economic Death Spiral Coming

Economist Richard Duncan: "Civilization May Not Survive Death Spiral", By Terry Weiss, Money Morning

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC. And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it." And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions. Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included. However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings: "We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible. Click here to see how banks are escalating the collapse... "And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything." Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries. "What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered. "Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated. The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings.

"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern. "For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that. "Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead. Editor's note: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism."

According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way." Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."

We can see the strain on society already. In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.

Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.

Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics." "If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable." "People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald. Watch the video here:

Operational Rehearsals for Survival

I have only received about three e-mails in the past year or so that mentioned what I wrote about rehearsals, but one of them was from a young man returning from service in Iraq as a Mechanic and he said that when he went along on ground convoys the security force sometimes made everyone do rehearsals for ambushes and road side bombs.

I'll bet they also briefed a plan and possibly did other rehearals such as for in-operable vehicle and cross loaded people and supplies and other likely event...may have even may everyone aware of where the emergency medical kits were located, explained how to operate the vehicles radios and the correct frequencies.

Rehearsals do more than insure everyone understand their roles and tasks, rehearsals can detect problems and therefore dictate changes in the plan.

There are many types of rehearsals, the easiest type is called a chart rehearsal usually using a map, chart or sketch while briefing the plan. This is commonly done as an orders brief or patrol order brief before the mission launches but can be done during the planning process to determine critical areas of the plan and contingencies that need to be planned.

Much like a chart rehearsals the table top rehearsal also uses a graphic, sketch or map and much like the movies "The Dirty Dozen", all team members explain their tasks and roles, this can be done with just key leaders as well, leaving these key leaders to get their respective elements up to snuff.

Sand Table rehearsal uses a model of the entire operational area, or just critical segments of the missions, maybe just the objective area. Using dirt or sand or boxes, cardboard and other things, a 3D representation of an rural or urban area can be made to present a mental picture of ground and the the operational tasks and flow.

The term Key Leaders rehearsals refers to any type of rehearsal, chart, tabe top or sand table, where just the element leaders are present. Sometimes this is done because of time restraints to allow other to prepare equipment and vehicles for the mission while key leaders rehearse, modify, refine and finalize the plan.

The military uses a term, Tactical Exercise Without Troops (TEWT) is usually where key leaders walk or visit the terrain or area where the mission is going to take place. Probably utilized in a defensive scenario, I imagine this used quite a bit where a community, be it a urban apartment building or a suburban block (a street with houses) organizes for early warning and defense and maybe one of the survivors with experience goes house to house or apartment to apartment and goes over the plan and individual area of responsibility with each group.

Another way a TEWT could be used in a Survival or Collapse defensive scenario would be for a group planning on a response from one locaton to another could walk the terrain from an assembly area to the objective area basically rehearsing element movement.

A Full Mission Profile Rehearsal is just like it sounds,....everyone,..everything,....and all phases of the mission rehearsed. This is obviously the best type of rehearsal but it takes time and organization.

Remember to consider PACE planning in your rehearsals.  Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency - have backups to all critical phases of your operation - test these during your rehearsals.  Think for yourselves and prepare well.

More Comments on Threat Groups

Thanks to PSYOP Soldier for letting us know the original post was blacked out.
Falcon15 has left a new comment on your post "Debate on Survival Threat Groups": Survival threat group: THEM. If you are not one of US you are one of THEM. In a full blown collapse, SHTF, etc. 1 year after the event or events, if you are not one of our group, I either want you dead or part of my group. As far as the period building up to the 1 year mark, for anyone to have found US, they needed to either know where we are, been looking specifically for us, or gone way out of their way looking. So unless you are exceptionally well known and can be positively identified, you may be asked, nicely at first, to leave. Failure to do so, and crossing a certain threshold brings you under Texas (thank God I live in the Great State) Castle Law. Just saying. Great post, keep them coming!

UrbanMan replies: Thanks Falcon 15 for your comments. Roger your comments on the US and THEM. I just had this conversation with a couple regarding the fact that in a collapse your neighbors and even friends will turn against you if it means their survival. That is the danger of exposing your survival preparatory lifestyle to the “Ostrich Heads” who think nothing will happen, hence no need to plan or prep. They are the “Hey lets go to the Burger King then to the movies!” as opposed to ”let’s go find some bargains at the local thrift mart or flea market and work off some items off our prep list.”

These people, the Ostrich Heads, who prefer to ignore the threat,…the impending economic – dollar – infrastructure collapse that so close upon us,….they will come to you if they know you are prepared. They will smooze you at first, then plea or beg, maybe want to be part of your group now that the necessity is upon them. They’ll maybe even threaten you and lastly will certainly have no qualms about going against you if it is a question of their survival or not.
Depending upon your location and nearest organized threat, you may not have much to fear, at least initially, from the really bad threat groups like street gangs and such, however it is phenomenal just how quickly a mob can be organized and feed off each other’s fears and hatred.  In fact, this country has bred an entitlement mentality which makes them believe they should be given everything  they need.   

If you are located on or near a likely mass migration route you could potentially see large groups of people moving through your neighborhood looting and running amok.  Barriers, fences, obstacles and even a show of an armed and organized force may not matter if these people are near starvation or their anger clouds their judgment. My survival group has discussed courses of action on what we do if we have to defend our site against any threat group, organized or not.

Many branches for planning here. What if you engage a group of armed thugs, kill several but some get away. Did you just teach them to go someplace else? Did you just create a group now solely focused on you?  What do they now know of your defenses and response? 

What do you do with the bodies? Our plan, if possible and as long as we have the capability, is that we’ll record on digital photos and from any documents taken off the dead for future identification, before we bury them.  We will also attempt to write a record of what happened – like an official statement  This is to support any legal efforts when and if society comes back on line.

We have talked about stragglers and even large groups of people moving through. To help all that appear in your area or on your “door step” obviously degrades you own supplies as well as poses an OPSEC risk. But how do you enforce your own security protocols on un-armed groups? These un-armed people still poses a threat to you.  Everything from attracting others, to stealing or looting, and even just as a source of information about your location and preps if they move on.     

SO, we get the “US” and “THEM” concept.  I think groups who do not war game what to plan for when faced with situations from massed refugees to well armed threat groups are just unprepared.