I re-learned a lesson just the other day on the importance of PACE plan planning . PACE, of course, stands for “Primary, Alternative, Contingency and Emergency” or otherwise just an acronym to remember to have contingency plans. The idea is to have an alternate method of plan to immediately (and hopefully seamlessly) transition to when the primary plan cannot be executed. Much like carrying a rifle and a handgun, if the rifle runs dry or has a malfunction, the shooter can transition to the handgun, often times, much quicker than resolving an empty rifle or malfunction.

The lesson I learned was in route planning. I work in an office close to the heart of the city. I have a 26 mile drive (21 miles line of sight) to get from my suburban home to work. Like a lot of people going to and from work each day, I have alternate routes based on any construction or traffic delays, but in my survivalist mindset these are also Bug Out Routes.

I fully understand that a catastrophic event like a nuclear attack or terrorist strike, or industrial accident like a train wreck releasing toxic chemicals, or some crazy government announcement could cause a mass migration effect from the city and block even the highest speeds avenues of approach (the road network).

I have analyzed my routes and the chokepoints be they bridges, four lanes going to two lanes, intersections around Wal-marts, etc., that could be clogged up with panicked people and all sorts of possibilities.

The “E” of my Bug Out Route PACE plan is moving on foot. Twenty One miles carrying my “all the time” Bug Out bag and bits and pieces of kit from my supplemental bag in my trunk. In a perfect world, I could easily make this trek in seven to eight hours. If I have to bypass crowds or identified threats, or hunker down to let threats by-pass me then this journey could take over night. In fact, there would be some situations where using the cover of darkness may be preferable. I carry two cell phones, one from work and the other a personal cell phone, and a FRS radio in my Bug Out Bag so I can keep my people informed of my progress.

So, back to the lesson I learned,.....several days ago I left work to find traffic backed up bumper to bumper for miles. The radio said there was a massive accident involving a tractor-trailer and several cars. As I was mentally planning to access an alternate route I also heard on the radio that were accidents at locations which would have blocked off my access to these routes. I could have just sat in traffic waiting for the accident to clear and later I found out that it would have been a 2 to 2 ½ hour wait, and as it was I thought “jeez, now I have found some holes in my route planning,…who would have thought there was a possibility of accidents blocking all my planned route, but then again these accidents could have just as easily been a mass of people leaving the city.”

Then I thought “what if this was one of those collapse events and I would absolutely need to get home”, what would I do? I briefly thought about parking the car, grabbing my BOB and heading out on foot. There was no threat and it would be good to rehearse this plan, but I really needed to find an alternate route as of yet unknown to me. I remembered an medical office building construction site, adjacent to a park which was adjacent to a golf course.

I ended up taking that route,..was able to navigate over a couple curbs in my vehicle and eventually accessed the gold course parking lot then a suburban street which lead around all the wrecks on the main avenues. I called my wife and had her turn on our FRS base station and tested my FRS hand held at intervals back to my house, until I was about 400 yards from my house when I eventually made commo with her. I have made an intentionally decision not to routinely carry one of our VHF radios, but now may have to re-look that.

An additional benefit from determining a new vehicle route on the fly is that this route now becomes my primary foot route as it provides more cover and concealment, and hole-ups places. Not to mention water sources at both the park and golf course. My lesson learned from all this to practice what I preach,…..develop a PACE plan AND rehearse the damn thing to determine possible holes and necessary changes.

Conversation between Survivalists

I spent a couple hours this past weekend talking with another like-minded survivalist,…I’ll call him “Greg”. We call ourselves that, rather than the term "preppers", as we are both getting on in years and the term survivalists is an older term. I was actually introduced to the concept circa 1979.

Greg stopped by to show me his surplus 7x57mm Mauser that he had just bought and also bought some 500 odd surplus rounds for it. I was a little surprised as I know him to own several modern rifles including M4 variants, M1A1 types and even a semi-auto AK or two. He said if for nothing more, he can use it for barter or trade, or equip any strap-hangers who he absorbs into his group. He also bought $150 worth of dehydrated food this month.

I asked him if something was telling him to step up his preparations and he said he may be compensating because both his daughter and son are going off to college and he may be trying to quiet his anxiety with them being gone by stocking more. We spent some time discussing potential for a collapse coming from economic collapse, terrorist attack, natural disasters including disease pandemics and general off shoots that would occur such as violence and anarchy initially along economically divided groups which may degenerate into violence along racial lines, sadly enough.

One of Greg’s points is that the population shifts on relative small economic factors. The media is fomenting a notion that the economy is getting better,…gas prices dropped a little,….and among the sheep population there is very little of a foreboding sense. What people fail to comprehend is the effects of the global economy on the U.S. Greece is having a hard time putting together a coalition government to address debt and spending reform. France just hired a socialist who vowed to tax the wealthy at 75%. The economies of Spain and Portugal are tanking and now even Germany is having problems. We may see the Euro go the way of the dinosaur.

All in all a depressing day actually. But one that caused me to re-visit the fact that I haven't done too much in the past couple of months, but caused me to head down to a hardware store on Monday afternoon and buy a 550 gallon hard impact plastic water blivet which looks strange as hell in the corner of my suburban back yard, but not as strange as the looks of one of my neighbors when a friend of mine and me off loaded it and worked it into the back yard over my fence. I plan to fill it with a garden hose and always keep it full, re-filling it as I use it for the garden, which incidentally I planted early because of the early Spring. I have egg plant, cucumber and squash all coming up now.

There are many of us out there preparing for a economic collapse within the United States. I am convinced that many of us could not really articulate the factors of an economic SHFT, or why this collapse is likely to occur. The video below is very sobering and a fairly non-partisan explanation of the Federal financial problem. It serves two purposes: 1 – to articulate the “why” of a probable collapse, 2 – scare the hell out of you that the problem(s) are not solvable therefore the economic collapse probable. The video explains that the U.S. debt is 32 times greater than Greece. While the U.S. obviously has much more means to re-pay debt, we also have much more discretionary obligations, read entitlements, that Greece doesn’t have. Without a dynamic course change the U.S. will see a substantial if not catastrophic economic collapse like Greece,......but the riots will not be like Greece. They will be much more wide spread and violent. While the economic problems in Greece did lead to a short duration food and commodities shortage, the shortage we’ll see here in the U.S. will be substantial. Like the video states, It’s when, not if, the U.S. will collapse from this soaring debt.

Possibility of World War III?

While most of us probably feel that a slow economic or even dyanmic economic collapse is a much more likely scenario for SHTF, nobody should discount conventional attack or attacks using Weapons of Mass Destruction/Effect by terrorists groups to either precipitate the collapse or to add speed and chaos to an already impending economic collapse. When you think about people on foot, or trucks or even ultra light aircraft bringing loads of narcotics across the U.S.-Mexican border each day, how hard would it be to bring in four pounds of a biological toxin?,.....or chemical weapons?,......or, God forbid, a small nuclear device? When you add the growing anger along socio-economic groups and what seems to be an agenda among many to divide us racially, we have a wide and immense catastophy sitting in front of us. The video below is long, but worth watching and it certainly gives us a lot to think about.