Iran and the Coming Fuel Crunch, Which May Be The Least of Our Concerns

Jairo wrote and said: "Hi again Urban-Man. I don't mean to over do it. However I found this pretty alarming. The things this will do to the price of fuel in this country would most likely push our economy over the side. The price of fuel goes up- so will the price of food, staples and everything else! My preps are far from ready. However this just motivates me to press on. Stay safe, stay prepared!"

Thanks Jairo, you are absolutely right, an economic collapse would result.

Jairo also provided a link to an article about Secretary of Defense Panetta stating that Israel could strike Iran by Spring.

In the article US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a "strong possibility" that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear installations this spring, and that President Barack Obama and Panetta are "said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold," he said.

Israeli media reported in October last year that the option of pre-emptive air strikes on Iran was opposed by the country's intelligence services but favored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak. Israeli television said Mossad chief Tamir Pardo raised the possibility of a unilateral strike on Iran during a visit last week to Washington.

Additionally, WND also published an article written by Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award winning book, “A Time to Betray.” This article, titled "Global Insecurity - Iran warns world of coming great event"

This article, only excerpts are included below, details how even among crippling economic sanctions over its nuclear weapons program, Iran is continuing to prepare itself for war against the West, and now is warning of a coming great event.

“In light of the realization of the divine promise by almighty God, the Zionists and the Great Satan (America) will soon be defeated,” Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, is warning. Khamenei, speaking to hundreds of youths from more than 70 countries attending a world conference on the Arab Spring just days ago, told a cheering crowd in Tehran that “Allah’s promises will be delivered and Islam will be victorious.” Khamenei then claimed that the current century as the century of Islam and promised that human history is on the verge of a great event and that soon the world will realize the power of Allah.

Many clerics in Iran have stated that Khamenei is the deputy of the last Islamic messiah on earth and that obedience to him is necessary for the final glorification of Islam. Khamenei has been heard to say that the coming of the last Islamic Messiah, the Shiites’ 12th Imam Mahdi, is near and that specific actions need to be taken to protect the Islamic regime for upcoming events.

Mahdi, according to Shiite belief, will reappear at the time of Armageddon. Selected forces within the Revolutionary Guards and Basij reportedly have been trained under a task force called “Soldiers of Imam Mahdi” and they will bear the responsibility of security and protecting the regime against uprisings. Many in the Guards and Basij have been told that the 12th Imam is on earth, facilitated the victory of Hezbollah over Israel in the 2006 war and soon will announce publicly his presence after the needed environment is created.

Iran is speeding up completion of the nuclear bomb program in which missiles can be armed with nuclear warheads. Iran believes once that’s achieved, Iran can test a nuclear bomb, letting the world know that Iran has joined the nuclear-armed club and that any confrontation will result in destruction of much of the Western world.

The Revolutionary Guards not only can hit all U.S. bases in the Middle East with their ballistic missiles but also reach most capital cities in Western Europe. The Guards, with the help of China and North Korea, are working on intercontinental ballistic missiles. But more dangerous to America, as reported last July, is the Guards action in arming their vessels with long-range ballistic missiles and their expansion of their mission into the Atlantic Ocean, right into the Gulf of Mexico.

And here's the scary part,.....any Iranian military or commercial vessel easily could get right outside the U.S. coastline and in less than 60 seconds fire a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear payload and detonate it over U.S. skies in an electromagnetic attack that would plunge America back into the 18th century. Studies show within just one year after such an attack, two-thirds of Americans would cease to exist and the rest would live under dire conditions.

Possible scenarios that impact on us here in the states:
1. The Israeli's strike Iran, over 40% of the world's oil supplies are disrupted, economic disaster hits our homeland.
2. The Iranians strike Israel and the resulting war, no matter how short, will disrupt oil supplies - read economic disaster here in the states.
3. Possibility of Iranian sponsored nuclear strike(s) in the states, with a resulting SHTF and economic-social and basically total collapse.

Watch the video below:

Is Terrorism a Cause for SHTF?

Since the startup of www.UrbanSurvivalSkills.com we have talked about the need for a detailed and substantial analysis of possible threats to you and your family's survival in order to help define the parameters of your collapse or SHTF plan. We have talked about the possibility of urban or suburban spillover demonstrations turning to riots; about possible threats from being in interest areas for the armed gangs that would certainly be created, or otherwise already exist and would increase their operational area and reach; about natural disasters and disasters from man-made catastrophes.

And now the federal government has produced a United States terrorism report detailing numbers and locations of terrorist attacks, from home grown and foreign borne or supported terrorist groups. The Blaze also posted an article entitled "Do You Live In A Terrorist Hot Spot According To This Map?", written by Liz Klimas.

Ms Klimas' source was: LaFree, Gary, and Bianca Bersani. “Hot Spots of Terrorism and Other Crimes in the United States , 1970 to 2008,” Final Report to Human Factors/Behavioral Sciences Division, Science and Technology Directorate , U.S. Department of Homeland Security. College Park, MD. Contact Information: 3300 Symons Hall, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, phone: (301) 405-, e-mail: infostart@start.umd.edu, website: www.start.umd.edu

Some of the key elements of this report:

The researchers, from the University of Maryland and University of Massachusetts-Boston, mapped all events considered terrorism since 1970 to 2008 in the United States (see map below). This established areas they deemed terrorism “hot spots” but also revealed that terrorism is actually “widely dispersed”.

The research found that a third of all terrorist attacks during that time-frame studied took place in five metropolitan cities — Manhattan , New York (343 attacks); Los Angeles County , Calif. (156 attacks); Miami-Dade County , Fla. (103 attacks); San Francisco County , Calif. (99 attacks); and Washington , D.C. (79 attacks).

While UrbanSurvivalSkills fully supports and even advocates the survivalist to be analyzing how likely and how catastrophic terrorist attacks would be on his/her survival and what events would be precipitated by a terrorist attack, really no conclusions can be drawn from this report as the researchers are using a definition of terrorism as: the threatened or actual use of illegal force, directed against civilian targets, by non-state actors, in order to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal, through fear, coercion or intimidation.

They are lumping criminal acts by idiots, such as that scum bag's hooting of Congresswomen Gifford in Tucson, in the same category as state sponsored, state supported acts from the "destruction of America" crowd.

There is little comparison with some attention seeking, video game playing, living in Mom's house loser that shoots some people in an insane act and with religious motivated terrorists putting Improvised Explosive Devices on the streets of New York City,....or spiking a communities water supply with poison,....or detonating a improvised or weapons grade Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) next to a U.S. Government facility.

Survivalists need to determine themselves likelihood of and effects from potential terrorist attacks that would affect them. An example, maybe a poor example, but an example none the less may be a WMD terrorist attack in Brownsville , Texas which drives possible contaminants and refugees up the highways towards Houston impact negatively on all residents along that route. The Survivalist planners along that route would need to consider possibility of wind driven contaminants; contamination of water supplies; security requirements of property and protection of lives from desperate refugees, not only from northbound traffic into Houston but from squatters and the criminal oriented but also from southbound return traffic as Houston struggles to cope with massive refugees. What degradation of infrastructure from the resulting WMD blasts or EMP would cause for them; Bug Out routes based on refugee flow, etc.

Terrorism precipitating SHTF. Not that likely. We face more threat from economic collapse than from terrorism as the current world board game maps out.

More SHTF Ambush Tips

I received the following from Paco: “The ambush post was great! Can you have more information on ambushes, maybe some advanced ambush techniques?”

UrbanMan replies: I will eventually write a post with additional ambush formations and maybe some case studies, but the thing to remember is the basics which set the foundation for all ambushes. So I offer this:

§ The ambush site should be suitable,.....having a covered and/or concealed approach/withdrawal route for your group; allow for the placement of observation/listening posts (LP/OP’s), for early warning, which also should provide defensible positions with good observation on the approaching threat; and the LP/OP’s need to be within communications distance from the main ambush element.

§ The Patrol leader or ambush team leader should conduct a leader’s reconnaissance of the ambush site to ensure it is suitable and select positions for the ambush team; the Patrol Leader/Ambush Team Leader should actually emplace each member of the ambush element to ensure they have covered/concealed positions and can cover the ambush “kill zone” effectively - think inter locking fields of fire.

§ There should be a designated fall back or rally position in case the ambush turns bad or the ambush element becomes separated. This rally position should be easy to pickout or recognize, even in the dark, and should be defensible in case the ambush goes bad and the team is pursued by the threat. It may not necessary be back on the route to the main survival site. Everyone in your patrol should have some land navigation skills.

§ The Patrol/Ambush Team Leader should have communications (probably radio) with the deployed LP/OP’s and should have a method to alert each ambush team member of the approaching threat – a pull cord can work well. This is a string connecting each ambush position and a simply mode of communication such as one pull meaning threat is approaching and two pulls meaning the member has received that message.

§ It is important that the kill zone and the placement of the ambush team will effectively cover the entire threat. You would be wise not to ambush only half the threat then have the other half maneuver against you. This is true if the ambush is a “harassing ambush” where the purpose may be the just drive the threat away or otherwise make them pick a easier route or target, or if the ambush is a “destruction ambush” where the intent is to completely destroy the threat.

§ If the threat is in vehicles, it may be effective to initial disable the front and last vehicle to fix the threat in the kill zone. Use of spike strips or other obstacles can help keep the threat vehicles from escaping the kill zone. Ensure the placement of obstacles, such as spike strips, T-posts or log buried with 18 inches or so exposed, or anything else, is concealed or otherwise the threat may recognize the ambush before it is initiated.

§ Ambushes are best initiated using a casualty producing device, other than small arms fire. The military uses high explosive direct fire weapons such as anti-tank missiles, anti-personnel/anti-vehicle mines or explosives, or, at least a machine gun. You may not be able to rig field expedient devices if you don’t have the expertise. It may pay off to have some reference material just in case. To be clear, I am not advocating violating any existing laws governing explosives, but in a SHTF scenario, there may not be any law enforcement and the laws or what people are willing to do to protect their groups from threats may become a little “relaxed”.

§ The Ambush should have planned signals, visual and audible, to “lift” or cease fire; maybe a signal to assault the killzone if that what your plan is or intent is; and a signal to withdrawal.  Keep in mind that in a SHTF - total collapse where medical response may be gone and medical treatment relays on what you can do - taking risks such as assaulting a threat may result in an additional risk of wounds or injuries to your people.  Be prepared to treat injuries and wounds, and, maybe have the ability to move non-ambulatory wounded back to your safe site.  

§ If assaulting the kill zone on a destruction ambush, there are a couple things to remember: use two or three person teams with defined duties such as search or cover; do not put you back to any threat body that is presumed dead – last thing you want is to walk pass a body only to shot in the back; have a limit of advance so you don’t have your kill zone assault element all strung out – this would be bad if the threat counter attacked.

The post collapse or SHTF Survival Group should think clearly before committing their limited resources to a definitive action like an ambush. It must be necessary to the survival of the group first and foremost; have clearly established goals; be conducted by responsible members who won't put other team members at risk; and rehearsed,...from a chart talk, to a sand table exercise to a full mission profile rehearsal.

Comment on the Coming European Collapse

Falcon15 sent a comment on the Europe Collapse is Imminent article: "The checks won't "bounce". The value of the dollar will be squat. As long as the Fed can print money, America will not default or run out of cash. What happens is an inflationary spiral, as the money supply increases, thereby decreasing the inherent "value" of each dollar. When the $250.00 welfare check will not buy a loaf of bread because bread is now $350.00, that is when we have problems. However, we will see an infrastructure collapse far before that, under this scenario, because when fuel prices get adjusted, but wages do not, truck drivers will not be able to afford the very fuel they need to move your food the average of 1500 miles from farm to store. A majority of finished and raw goods will stop moving. Those goods that do move and are available will be so expensive as to not be purchasable by the average American, due to pricing adjustments. Even if one could conceivably afford these goods in a massive inflationary market, will there be enough to go around? Got preps? Pray for the best, prepare for the worst."

UrbanMan's reply" Falcon15 you are essentially correct. It's not like the government won't send the checks, it's just that they'll be practically worthless. The "cost of living" raises will not begin to keep pace of the inflation. Some of us older people remember seeing pictures in the history books of people in pre-World War II Germany pushing wheel barrows of cash to the bakery only to find the shelves bare. But regardless of the checks either not coming or being worthless due to hyper inflation, the same basic problem is there. A very large percentage of the population being without any means to live and being really pissed and desperate about it. And I mean without anything.

You are exactly right about surmising that even if one could afford the massive hyper-inflation and reduced availability of goods, will there be any left?

Just imagine 40 million people who have to either rely on government camps or criminal acts to survive. How much different or worse would it be if that number is 80 million? 120 million? And while the majority of firearms in this country are own by people who are responsible, availability of weapons is substantial.  Many in the disenfranchised segment of the population will be armed.  

One of my acquaintances said, only partially tongue in cheek, that if you don't have a weapons, pre-collapse, then just wait as the government will either arm you, a la Fast and Furious, to sell you a gun as they empty out armory's to make money.   Of course, that is not going to happen.

There are not just "Survivalist's" predicting some sort of financial collapse.  Many political entities and financial planners are calling a complete economic financial breakdown being imminent.  This of course will lead to massive civil unrest.  Many think that if this happens prior to the 2012 Presidential election or the actual seating of a new President in January 2013 that the collapse would cause the current Administration to  either suspend 2012 election or the installation of a new administration.