The Likelihood of a Collapse

We received a anonymous comment for the Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 25 post entitled Don't Lose Focus......"I too am turned off by those who want the S to HTF (no offense to you because of your comment). I fear the coming collapse. I don't think our leaders are capable enough to get us through this and in fact I think that some of them are intentionally making the situation worse for
political reasons. A collapse with our current batch of leaders could be a disaster of biblical proportions. Don't wait too long to complete your preps."

UrbanMan replies: The bad side of hosting a website, doubly so on a site that talks about surviving the coming collapse is that people come out of the proverbial woodwork writing e-mails a week concerning conspiracies.

When discussing (arguing?) about the causes of the economic disaster we find ourselves in now, and the intent of our elected political leaders and appointed bureaucrats, it is hard to persuade some people that the current leadership is intent on destroying this country's economy. Hard to persuade, because even the most rational people are scratching their heads in amazement of the Government's
failure to enact a balanced budget; failure to spend less money than they take in from the tax payers; failure to enact any, let alone, meaningful entitlement reform; continuous implementation of regulations, from the EPA' clean air act to the FDA's Food Safety and Modernization Act,.etc., etc., ...all with the result of making it harder for small businesses to remain afloat and for the economy to get better.

So in short, yes it does seem like our "current batch of leader are intentionally making the situation worse for political reasons." This is called riding your ideology to our demise.

However, aside from all the things we can do,..... such as writing our legislators to vote correctly; urging good people to run for office; and, contributing to the campaigns for candidates that are patriots, it really boils down to that the average citizen and therefore the average Survival Prepper has little control on the factors that control the pace or the depth of the coming collapse.

What we do have is some control over is what we do about it. Do we bury our heads in the sand thinking things must get better? Do we move to some remote wilderness location where we can be self sufficient and ride out SHTF? Probably for most people, the answer lays in between somewhere. Do what your conscious tells you
to do in regards to communicating with your elected political leaders abut your concerns, complaints and ideas,....but,......do what your gut tells you to in regards to preparing for hard times. Have food; have some firearms; develop some friends; read and expose yourself to the Survival Preparation movement to leverage everyone else's recommendations and lessons learned; look at all the threats and see how they affect you; and, above all, have a plan. Do not rely on the Government to make it better. As we all know, the Government never does the right thing before they have exhausted every other option.

Bad Advice on Survival Firearms?

I received this e-mail taking me to task for advocating sub-standard weapons for survival……”I have no idea why you would advocate people getting Mosin-Nagants and Double Barreled shotguns for Survival weapons. The threat is going to come from very well armed groups of people with bad intent. A five shot ancient rifle and a two shot shotgun will only give these people a false sense of security. They are going to need weapons just like the military. I have an older HK91, an M1A1 and two brand new Bushmaster model 4 carbines just like the Army M-4. I have several different 9mm pistols. Would never own a double barreled shotgun! Are you kidding me?”.

UrbanMan replies: Hey, I’m all for taking constructive criticism. But,.......

The first rule to a gunfight (or for SHTF protection for that matter) is “to have a gun”. Have you ever been in a gunfight? I know full well the value of good weaponry and the skill to use it. However, refer back to rule #1. Some people cannot afford the latest in civilianized military firearms. If someone has serviceable rifles, shotguns and handguns and has not done anything else to prepare for hard times, then what would you suggest their next preparation priorities be? Trade in their "obsolete" firearms for the latest piston M-4?

I would think the best answer would have to be the steps they are willing to do and have the resources to do as well. Buying and stocking food come to mind. Having stored water and the capability to store more...... Building a Bug Out Bug....Developing a plan.....Maybe having a little bit of Silver or Coins for Silver Melt value.....Having some good clothes and gear. These would all be necessary before upgrading your survival firearms. In my humble opinion.

For example, Jim who often writes a post for this site called "Survival Chronicles of Jim" is a great example of someone who has come from total ignorance of survival preparation to a pretty decent readiness posture, despite his lack of any military or law enforcement experience or even wilderness skills. He realized the necessity of firearms yet he has centered his "survive the collapse" firearms battery around a couple handguns, a Mosin-Nagant rifle, an SKS and a 12 gauge riot shotgun. Purchasing a $1,000 or more rifle was too far out of his comfort zone.

But for the record, I have never, nor would I encourage or recommend a survival prepper starting from scratch to sink money into “antique” firearms. Although, the more important component is the skill at using these weapons. Ask the Russians armed with modern AK-74 assault rifles who went against Mujh armed with bolt action Short Magazine Lee Enfields just how important skill is.

Agricultural Decline and Survival Gardens

The facts on the Agricultural decline: 36 days for most Americans to earn enough disposable money to pay for their year's worth of food; 150 years ago, 50% of the American population lived on farms or ranches, producing not only their own food, but food for this country and for export. In fact, we used to feed a large part of the world.

Today, less than 2% of the American population live on farms or ranches. 98 percent of the population do not produce their own food to any substantial degree. However, we have seen a recent turn to the popularity of home gardening,...in the cities and suburbs people are growing vegetables for many, and sometimes multiple, reasons: To defray the rising costs of food; to give themselves a sense of accomplishment that comes with planting a seed then months later harvesting something to eat; and, to practice farming skills that may be a priority in a major economic collapse or what others call for SHTF.

I think the idea most survival preppers have is to grow food to augment what they have painstakingly stored for the coming collapse. For a small family, harvesting just a couple cucumbers, squash, and corn each week could go along way when combined with rice and beans stored in bulk for emergency purposes.

It should come as no surprise that world wide food production is diminishing (part of what is driving prices up), .....and that the nutritional content of these foods is less and less. Hell, that's a great reason right there to grow your own.

When Peak Oil hits, the availability of food will decrease and the prices will increases (law of supply and demand my friends).

I recently took a bunch of excess squash, cucumbers and pomegranates to work to give to the secretarial staff. They were amazed that I grew it. While none of them know my beliefs and practices pertaining to Survival Preparation, two of these ladies (both middle aged single women) asked how hard was it to grow vegetables? Now, I'm thinking "you got to be kidding me?", then I realize that most people have never grown anything but flowers and weeds. So I spent about five minutes explaining to them how to plant a couple squash plants (success early don't you know) and made a list of what to buy, how to water, and more importantly how to educate themselves by reading.

So if you haven't started your own garden, then what are you waiting for? If you are like me you have limited room,......so what? four or six squash and cucumber plants is better than nothing.

Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 25 Don't Lose Focus

This is Jim here. Long time since I sent Urban Man sometime to post. These last few months had me a funk. I had spent a lot of money and effort getting prepared, and not like I was hoping an event would happen, but I started to lose focus on why I was preparing until it became apparent, again, that the Government may just be driving this country into a financial Armageddon. Then I realized that basically what I am doing is giving myself some insurance.

A chance of survival in a post SHTF world. All my food preparations, firearms procurements, equipment acquisitions, silver bullion buys and even my recon and cache prep of the family cabin were the foundation of why I lost focus because I was actually moderately prepared for many terrible events, again which I hope not to experience, but there was some part of me that wanted it to happen. I had a phone conversation with Urbanman and he said I was an “asshole” for wanting the collapse to occur.

With the stock market on a roller coaster; Gold at $1,877 an ounce (this morning as I write this) representing a 21% increase PER YEAR since 2002; seemingly spontaneous riots in some of the major cities that are associated in some cases with racial tensions, but are really linked to the failing economy. Just too many reasons to be concerned.

From UrbanMan: Jim sent this to me last week. Today's Gold price was at $1,859.

One of my friends, a civil service computer guy with the Army, told me that the Government is downsizing Defense civil service jobs. We wondered what these displaced workers and the tens of thousands of service members separated from the military during the end of the war(s) obligatory downsizing will do to the economic outlook and especially the unemployment rate.

I hope most of you are NOT doing the same thing - starting to lose focus. Arguing with the wife about the $130 you spent this month to buy three silver bullion rounds or the bucket of Wise prepared meals; or, looking at your monetary expenditures on canned or dehydrated food and start to think it's a waste. Because it's not. And if you get to the point where you think you need to slow down on your preps you face the real time danger of quitting altogether, albeit much better off than you are now, but not totally prepared as you can be.

I am now looking for a second vehicle. Something like an 1970’s era Jeep or Pickup so I can buy some spare parts, tires and wheels for it and store it at my family cabin. I’ll be looking soon to emplace (cache) some of the prepared food buckets I bought through Costco.

I just planted some “winter” squash in my backyard. It is AMAZING how fast squash grow when you give it adequate water. I have been harvesting the cucumbers and other squash I planted in late April and being pretty creative in making dinners out of it. My son, visiting from College, even likes it.

I took some of my produce to the house on the corner where a old couple live. Now I’m friends with them and found out the lady has been canning for years and the Husband is an old Korean War Veteran, who owns an M1 Garand. In a week or two I will take him some a couple boxes of .30-06 ammunition. Urbanman also gave me a couple clips to give him. Since I am stuck in this neighborhood until I Bug Out, I thought I would work to build a team, first by building rapport. Urbanman calls it "the heart and minds things".

So after a couple of months of losing focus, I am back at more prepared than ever. I just now know that, in fact, there isn't anything such as being "fully prepared", it really is a continuous process. Don't be like me - I lost two months getting ready.