Survival Financial Planning - Reader Question on Buying Silver at High Prices

Fluctuating Gold and Silver prices and my advice to buy Silver even at the high prices must have prompted this question: I don't agree with your advice to buy Silver when the prices were high. Granted a person needs to keep on top of the prices and buy when the prices are as low as expected. Most of us out here are trying to prepare on a fixed budget and prepare for all manner of disasters.

UrbanMan replies: Since you did not write your name on the e-mail, I can't attribute this question to you, but will not use your e-mail name (obviously a nickname) to identify you. But, to answer you're question, I first have to ask some questions....

Do you have a price ceiling per ounce for the purchasing of Gold or Silver that you are not willing to buy higher at?

How do you keep on top of the prices? Because at any given time the price you see on the Internet is NOT the price you are going to buy it for. The time it takes for a company to process our order on phone/internet orders, or, the time it takes you to drive to a precious metals dealer will all factor in.

Recently the price of Silver went to right around $50 an ounce and a few days ago it was under $34 an ounce. Did you predict this substantial drop?

Actually, several analysts have predicted this drop and a commonly held assessment is that it may go even substantially lower, maybe to $27 an ounce, before it begins a meteoric rise to never before seen levels. Who knows? I don't! Do you?

But what I do know is that my purpose for stocking precious metals, particularly Silver is for a lifeline and not an investment. But it could be an investment. I have several friends who are less focused on preparing for a major league collapse than they preparing for a big market turn south and the resulting giant depression. So they are safeguarding their investments through the procurement of PM's to be at the higher end of any shift of wealth created by a depression.

I have talked more than one of them into taking physical possession of their Gold and Silver as opposed to having "paper" Gold and Silver....just like the University of Texas did when they took possession of the physical Gold even with the enormous costs of storing such a weight.

I also have a couple people close to me who I'm helping on preps, and they insist on cost averaging Silver and are buying through the Silver Saver program, where a set amount of money is automatically deducted from your bank account every week, 2 weeks or month to buy whatever amount of Silver that deducted amount can purchase until you own enough to have it shipped to you. While I'm not a big fan of this, it is an automatic method to ensure you can buy what you can afford - dollar cost averaging.

The bottom line here is that many people hesitated to buy when Silver went over $20 an ounce. Then when Silver hit $30 an ounce they panicked and bought,...others still hesitated to buy until it hit $40 an ounce. My point is you need to have physical PM's in your inventory for a complete "Surviving the Collapse" plan. How much financial pain you are willing to accept to get there is up to you.

Survival Preparation - Natural Disasters Increase Probability of Economic Collapse

Tornadoes in the Mid East; Record breaking Droughts in the plains, especially in Texas; Wildfires across West and Southwest; Massive Floods in the Mississippi basin. All this will result in a cost of tens of billions of dollars in economic losses and that cost will most certainly climb as the Floods and Wildfires continue. Just look at the map above.

Some Economists calculate that the cost will be a minimum of $15 billion dollars.....these are conservative estimates. One economist argues that the cost is already at $12 billion dollars to the economy.

Cattle and crop losses will be significant. Insurance premiums will most certainly go up. Food prices are going to skyrocket....and it is in addition to othe prices you have already seen increase. And this is all happening in a very dire time for this country. Between the diminished supplies, the devaluation of the dollar, housing foreclosures, and the rising fuel costs this country will experience a big down turn in the economic condition and certainly a full fledged economic collapse is very possible,....even probably.

Look at the map below of U.S. Counties where natural disasters have affected the crops.

These alone are reason enough to prepare. Stock food supplies; ensure safe routes to safe locations; plan for your security; include financial planning to include what happens when the banks close.

This is what I explain to a gent the other day when he overheard a conversation between me and another guy who on on-board with trying to prepare for all contingencies. This other gent, I'll call him Bob, starting making comments like "Oh Yeah, buy a bunch of guns and head for the hills."

I replied in a serious way, "Well, I guess you can buy guns and run for the hills if you want, but I choose a more deliberate approach where I use critical planning and decision making skills. Sure, guns are important, cause if you don't have one or more (and know how to use them), then your security is greatly compromised,.... ....however, survival preparation, or disaster preparation if you will, is much, much more than that.” Anyway I could see the wheels turning in this guy’s eyes. I told him I would send him some links to several internet sites to look at. It helps that I don’t have a reputation as some nut. I hope I get this guy turned and turned quick as I don’t need another straphanger showing up at my place.

Reader Disapointed in Lack of 21 May TEOTWAWKI Coverage

Received an e-mail from Tecumseh: Hey Urban Man, I was disappointed not to see any coverage on the 21 May The End Of The World As We Know It prediction. I remember when you tried to scare everyone before Christmas I think.

UrbanMan replies: Tecumseh, first of all 21 May was not my prediction - it was some religious nut's call,.....and I never have had the intention of scaring anyone. It may seem some sort of noble cause to scare people in order for them to get their act together and start prepping, but the "accordian effect" comes into play where people get jerked with multiple threat streams, get tired of leaning forward, then get complacent enough to ignore important events or indicators, then are caught with their pants down.

It's kind of like athletics,...you can't always be in tip top shape. You ebb and flow in regards to upcoming competition or events. I think that's the way I approach survival preparation.

I have baseline preps across the major needs of food, water, shelter and security (protection). I try to keep track of many indicators. When those indicators start to lean to a possible event that may plunge us into chaos or a collapse,...or maybe not plunge us but certainly make us pick up speed towards TSHTF, then I will do a couple things: ensure all my vehicles and (some or all) of my spare fuel cans are filled up; maybe buy some extra cases of bottled water as you can never have enough water.

I have a habit of carrying a small notebook and pen with me everywhere. You never know when a solution to some thought or problem that has been incubating in your mind pops up. So I am always jotting notes of things I realize I may need but may not be available either due to supplies or the threat environment. I use the lead in time to procure some things like this. In fact, just the other day I realized that I have broke my round file to sharpen chain saw blades,...so a round file goes on my list,....then last week when this 21 May TEOTWAWKI crap comes up. Rather than just ignore it, I make a trip to the gas station fuel up, stop by the hardware store an buy a two round files among other things.

But life goes on for me. My family and I rent movies, eat out at our favorite restaurants, spend money on things that have no real survival purpose like fashionable clothes or shoes for the girls.

Doesn't mean I walk around like John Q. Thirty Five years of carrying guns and being aware make it second nature. In fact two nights ago, I saw a care drive by my house slowly. Twenty minutes later the same car with one 20 something year old white, male, brown hair, black ball cap and sunglasses drive by again and stopped about two houses away facing my house.

Out the back door, over the fence, paralleling my street then I approached this car, using my cell phone camera to take a picture of the license plate, like a traffic stop. The boy was a college student doing home appraisals for an insurance company. When I was satisfied, I went back the way I came so we would not know where I live. So I guess the moral of this story is to prepare well; hope like hell nothing happens (except maybe a new government!); be cautious - look, act, and be a hard target, but keep living life.

Survival Firearms - Lever Action Guns for the Collapse

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received this e-mail comment: ……..”I have been discussing most of the topics covered here with friends in different parts of the country and we have come up with very similar solutions. One thing we decided was that a lever gun in 44mag or 357mag would be better than anything magazine fed. You can top up a lever gun at any pause and there are no mags feed lips to damage. As most contact ranges would be 100yds or less these calibers are more than adequate. If the range is greater, stay hidden!! Your comments. P.”

UrbanMan’s comments: I have no problem with anyone’s choice of survival firearms, as the first rule is to have a gun and remember one is none, two is one. People who tend to have a limited number of guns just may be more proficient with them then those of us with an arsenal!

If you have a lever gun, then it most probably has a tubular magazine. Yes easy to top off, but slow to load,…limited to certain bullet types so sympathetic detonation from bullet nose to cartridge primer does not occur while loaded in the tubular magazine, and, ……also limited to number of rounds that you can carry and if you always keep it fully loaded, then you face a degraded spring strength.

I own a couple lever guns. A great point about levers is that they are robust enough to take the abuse. But I’ll choose my M-4 most every time over a lever. However, I know a gent (not in my survival group) who owns just a couple guns: a Browning lever in .44 magnum; a S&W Model 29 in .44 magnum; a double barrel 12 gauge shotgun and maybe a .22 LR rifle. He used to have an old Colt NM M1911 in .45 ACP to shoot in competition, but he no longer has that (he sold it to me). I know he has a lot of ammunition for each and is very capable with any of these guns, despite his age in the mid 60’s. He believes that there will be a collapse, but say’s he thinks he is adequately armed.

As far as magazines go, I have three different brands for my M-4’s: standard GI mags, mostly 20 rounders; 20 and 30 round P-Magazines, and even a few H&K steel magazines. I rarely have problems with the magazines and if I do and am sure of it, I’ll toss it from my inventory. So I would think that economics and familiarization would be better reason to stick to a lever gun.

A friend of mine from the SW Border area told me, about a year ago if I remember right, that he went into a gun shop to buy some .45-70 ammunition for a competition only to find out that the store had none because a old man came through a few days earlier and bought up all they had,…hundreds of dollars worth. The store said the old man was touring the region buying up all the .45-70 he could find. I would think that this gent probably is pretty high on his .45-70 be it a lever gun or a sharps, and was obviously preparing for a collapse and basing his security/protection needs on what is seemingly an antiquated gun.

I like your idea at ranges greater than 100 yards, then hide! I think smart people don’t look for fights, especially in an environment of degraded medical care. Fight when you have to and when you have the advantage…e.g..it if is a fair fight, then you did something wrong. Keep the principle of ambushes foremost in your mind: Surprise, Coordinated Field of Fire, Violence of Action, Speed and Security.

I would not feel particularly under gunned using a lever action, but I would damn sure try to use the new Hornady LeveRevolution ammunition which gives a 160 grain bullet in a .30-30 case, near .308 performance. Good luck with your lever guns and stay safe.