Crying Wolf on the Coming Collapse?

We received the following comments from Phil: "I've been reading the archives on this site and since 2009 there have been dire warnings of imminent collapse and yet we still muddle on, better some days worse others. How do you (meaning all of us) justify constant preparations and increased vigilance when the threat level remains constant. Once conditions have remained the same for a period of time it becomes the "new normal" and as I am sure you are aware, once you train to a fine edge you either deploy or stand down and after a period of R&R, begin training once again for the next deployment. The military can do business that way but many "preppers" cannot. After all, life is what happens to you while you are making plans for the future. While I realize the need for being prepared,you can begin to sound like the boy who cried wolf and people around you begin to waiver and act as if the crisis has passed. What do you do to keep your family's motivation current? TTFN Phil"

UrbanMan's reply: Very good thought provoking question from Phil. And Phil is right - a razor sharp edge cannot be maintained. I think the answers in maintaining vigiliance are as different as is the different categories of preppers. For some people preparation for the collapse is a fulltime endeavor. For others it is a part time deal and yet others it is a spare time affair. The differences between part time and spare time in my book is the amount of committment (dedicating time and resources) to get measurably better in a given period.

The full time preppers probably don't need any outside motivation, which is usually in the form of dire warnings of the impending collapse.

The spare time and part time preppers are the ones who dedication wanes from time to time as the "new normal" as Phil calls it just becomes "normal".

I would consider myself a part time prepper. I suspect that for me and the vast majority of preppers, life just gets in the way. Add that to the basic human nature of having faith in things getting better or at least the possibility of things getting better and the likely trait of not dwelling on bad news all the time,......well, this all just provides a rationalization not to go into the full time prepper mode or otherwise dedicate a lot of resources towards this goal.

There will be some people out there who will argue that the collapse has already begun, albeit slowly. Others will argue that an economic collapse is only being postponed - the Fed's printing of fiat currency and floating that into the market is one of the factors keeping the collapse at bay - but that this postponement will only make the effects of the collapse stronger and just that much more difficult to rise out of.

But I don't think the threat has remained constant. I am of the mind that the collapse has begun, very slowly and the major effects or the tipping point, where the effects of the collapse pick up speed, are being postponed. Additionally, there are more threats streams we are facing, and to be sure some of them may not occur. As of these additional threats, I am thinking of the potential of a terrorist action such as a nuclear device detonated in the U.S. or a substantial attack on a nuclear or chemical plant that causing extensive contamination and undoubtably a severe US Government response with population controls and possible martial law; the possibility of natural disaster or the continuation of a historic drought being a catalyst or just perhaps adding to the economic burden and food shortage.

I think the whole essence of prepping is that we are preparing for a contingency. Just like when we carried long guns for a living, we also carried a handgun. Even though we may have never had a history of using that handgun and could rationalize not carrying it, but we realized that there were circumstances where it could save our lives. ..... remember the phrase: "I would rather have it and not need it, then need it and not have it"?

The bottom line on the way I maintain some focus on prepping, with really no credit to myself, is through the constant media barrage on indicators,...some mild and subtle, others big. Everything from the out of control spending of this government, to the drastic elimination of gun rights in many states and the bent of the Federal Government on gun control.....BTW President Obama was on television recently apologizing to the Mexicans that the U.S. is to blame for most of the violence in Mexico due the American export of guns across the border........and who can forget about inflation and taxation decreasing our standard of living. And then the facts of almost 50 million people on welfare with no end in sight and the possibility of concentrated small armies of hungry, pissed off people means civil chaos.....................Well, I have plenty of reasons to keep prepping.

Survival Preparation - Natural Disasters Increase Probability of Economic Collapse

Tornadoes in the Mid East; Record breaking Droughts in the plains, especially in Texas; Wildfires across West and Southwest; Massive Floods in the Mississippi basin. All this will result in a cost of tens of billions of dollars in economic losses and that cost will most certainly climb as the Floods and Wildfires continue. Just look at the map above.

Some Economists calculate that the cost will be a minimum of $15 billion dollars.....these are conservative estimates. One economist argues that the cost is already at $12 billion dollars to the economy.

Cattle and crop losses will be significant. Insurance premiums will most certainly go up. Food prices are going to skyrocket....and it is in addition to othe prices you have already seen increase. And this is all happening in a very dire time for this country. Between the diminished supplies, the devaluation of the dollar, housing foreclosures, and the rising fuel costs this country will experience a big down turn in the economic condition and certainly a full fledged economic collapse is very possible,....even probably.

Look at the map below of U.S. Counties where natural disasters have affected the crops.

These alone are reason enough to prepare. Stock food supplies; ensure safe routes to safe locations; plan for your security; include financial planning to include what happens when the banks close.

This is what I explain to a gent the other day when he overheard a conversation between me and another guy who on on-board with trying to prepare for all contingencies. This other gent, I'll call him Bob, starting making comments like "Oh Yeah, buy a bunch of guns and head for the hills."

I replied in a serious way, "Well, I guess you can buy guns and run for the hills if you want, but I choose a more deliberate approach where I use critical planning and decision making skills. Sure, guns are important, cause if you don't have one or more (and know how to use them), then your security is greatly compromised,.... ....however, survival preparation, or disaster preparation if you will, is much, much more than that.” Anyway I could see the wheels turning in this guy’s eyes. I told him I would send him some links to several internet sites to look at. It helps that I don’t have a reputation as some nut. I hope I get this guy turned and turned quick as I don’t need another straphanger showing up at my place.

Urban Survival - Surviving Natural Disasters - Hurricanes

With Hurricane Earl make a change in direction towards and rapidly approaching the East Coast placing people and property at risk – like a societal collapse scenario, we thought this post was appropriate. As of 1400 hours EST today, Thursday 2 Sept, Hurricane Earl is a Category 3 Hurricane with 125 mph winds.

Although no good will come out a Hurricane and the possible floods and criminal activity that can and will result…it is a time to exercise of your Survival Plans intended for a Total Collapse Scenario or what we know as TEOTEAWKI.

Understand the threat. For Natural weather based disasters, especially with forewarning as is the case with Hurricanes, go to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Watch site: http://www.noaawatch.gov/ to obtain the latest information on conditions. You’ll see some graphics like the one below that will give you an idea on the, in this case, Hurricane path. A Hurricane Watch means a hurricane is possible in your area. Be prepared to evacuate. Monitor local radio and television news outlets or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest developments. A Hurricane Warning is when a hurricane is expected in your area. If local authorities advise you to evacuate, leave immediately.

Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their wind speed, central pressure, and damage potential. Category Three and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes (using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), though Categories One and Two are still extremely dangerous and warrant your full attention. Hurricanes can produce widespread torrential rains. Floods are the deadly and destructive result. Slow moving storms and tropical storms moving into mountainous regions tend to produce especially heavy rain. Excessive rain can trigger landslides or mud slides, especially in mountainous regions. Flash flooding can occur due to intense rainfall. Flooding on rivers and streams may persist for several days or more after the storm. See chart below:

Home Preparation.

Cover all of your home's windows with pre-cut ply wood or hurricane shutters to protect your windows from high winds. Boy, ain’t Floridians good at this?

Plan to bring in all outdoor furniture, garbage cans and anything else that is not tied down. High winds can make anything not strapped down or secured into a missile – kinda like a fragmentation grenade.

Keep all trees and shrubs well trimmed so they are more wind resistant.

Secure your home by closing shutters, and securing outdoor objects or bringing them inside.

Turn off utilities as instructed. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed.

Turn off propane tanks.

Ensure a supply of water for sanitary purposes such as cleaning and flushing toilets. Fill the bathtub and other large containers with water.

Family – Personnel Prep.

Ensure Bug Out Bags are packed and ready to go. Fill water bottles and add last minute food items. Put fresh batteries in your radios and re-charge all cell phones. This is your chance to update the BOB’s as well as to place in new medications, and/or change out expired meds and first aid items, etc.

Ensure all documents you need are included such as birth certificates, shot records, social security cards, insurance policies and paperwork, wills or trust paperwork, birth, marriage and death certificates, tax records, etc.

If you have time, get more cash out of the bank or ATM.

Family or Survival Group Emergency Plan.

Brief your family or survival group emergency plan. Ensure everyone knows the routes and location for your rally points or rendezvous locations.

Ensure everyone has a list of all phone numbers, radio frequencies and any code words you are using.

Pack and load all vehicles that you intend on using. Hey, this is a good chance to see if everything fits and/or or learn to prioritize your Survival Bug Our Vehicle Load List.

This also may be the first time you have considered what you are going to do about your pets and if you have the material and resources to take them with you during the Bug Out.

Be prepared to move on foot and use ropes to secure each to one another and strobe lights or chem lights to mark people for control and locating in periods of no visibility such as driving rain, extremely high winds, or total darkness.

Lastly, be prepared to protect yourself and your family or Survival Group. Your situational awareness and security measures should be at or near the peak. Criminal elements are active during the disasters and through the aftermath,... ...robberies, looting, looking for victims are all high on the criminal or gang operational priority list.