Urban Survival - Reader Question on Refugee Danger

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comment: ” I live in a small rural town in Ohio . We have one traffic light on a 2 lane state route. How do I determine if I am near a refugee line and how many refugees and looters would one have to defend yourself against? Do most refugees travel south (ie to warmer weather) or is that not a factor? I have always felt safe hear but realize all that will go out the window in a collapse type situation. We have a lot going for us hear that we are a Christian Community and close nit. There are a lot of families related to one another. We have 2nd Cousins, Uncles, etc here. What are the criteria for these type situation?

UrbanMan’s reply: Great question on how does an individual or Survival Group determine if their location is on a mass migration or refugee route or are situated to be endangered by other factors. Weather,..i.e..warm weather may be a factor if the event, such as utilities failure or fuel oil shortages occurs during the winter time. The catalyst is probably more likely to be a food shortage.

I do not know your location, and it would probably not be a good idea to send any other information to me,…in other words keep your OPSEC tight. I picked out a region of Ohio for my example on the map below. The first thing I would is to determine the possible events that could place your location in danger of pushing hungry and desperate people your way,…the effects of a refugee stream and what the effects would be on your safety and survival.

Some of those events and questions may be:

1. Food stores and deliveries dry up in a nearby city pushing people your direction. Are you located on a natural route out of the city? Is there a reason refugees would moved in your direction? On the map imagine you are located in Burton , Ohio ,…seemingly well off the beaten path from the larger cities of Cleveland and Youngstown . Would food shortages or infrastructure/utility failures in Youngstown drive refugee migration towards Cleveland where people may supposed food stores exist due to Cleveland ’s location on Lake Erie and commodities deliveries would go there first before being delivered to interior locations?

2. Are you between major cities where events such as a large scale chemical accident or even a man-made or man caused event such as a nuclear detonation may drive people your way? Consider routes both ways,…would a major event in Cleveland drive people towards Youngstown and therefore either transiting close by or even through Burton?

3. The major lines of communication (called LOC’s) or otherwise known as the interstates and highways would be heavily traveled during a refugee migration or evacuation. Some people will be using these routes because they are the fastest routes,….while others may think that a carefully developed routes using secondary state highways may be safer. I think the major LOC’s will be problematic as grid lock, breakdowns, gas shortages, accidents and possibly armed bandit groups preying on people can or will make these dangerous.

4. Having some sort of early warning system would be huge to prepare against refugee tidal wave. Friends, family or cultivated sources/alliances with a means of communications are important even if you are not necessarily directly on a refugee route. Consider the map below. The circle around Burton is a notional Area of Operations (AO) also called Area of Responsibility (AOR). This may be the circle that all your group lives within,….maybe where your crop fields and other resources are contained, etc. Anything that can happen outside of your AOR but can influence things inside your AOR is called your Area of Influence (AI). You will need to determine decision points or area(s) of interest such as the intersection of 422 and 322, where refugees could first be confirmed if they went NW towards Burton , or even due NORTH on 422 towards Middlefield. Because once in Middlefield, they could easily turn WEST and roll in to Burton . These are places where you should know the refugees are transiting through and that information relayed to the group in Burton.

It would be important to know and have looked at (reconnoitered) locations such as choke points along these natural refugee routes, such as bridges, big turns in the roads, low ground on the road or covered and concealed areas close to the road or really anyplace where a blockade, checkpoint or even an ambush can be conducted to keep large groups from rolling into your AOR.

Being self sufficient,….having stored food and being able to grow your own food, having a good year round water source, family and neighbors you can count on and the ability to protect yourself, are all necessary for survival during a collapse, but being rolled over by massive amounts of hungry, desperate people or even just having to deal with and maybe feed or treat a smaller number could spell your doom. You and your people are ahead of the effort in many ways if you are a Christian Group and living in a small town. It helps to have a common denominator within the Survival Group, other than just the desire to survive. Baseline morals and the value system is highly important to have an effective team that works well together on survival essential goals.

Again, I picked Burton at random. I know of no one living in Burton or even in Ohio...other than the general description of the state from the reader comment.

Urban Survival Planning - Financial Collapse: One Scenario

This is what the Complete and Total Economic Collapse of the United States and the World looks like on film. An older movie to be sure, but the principal catalysts remain the same,...hyper-inflation, total devaluation of the dollar, gold and silver prices skyrocket,......commodities in short supply.

The difference between this old movie and today is the incredible national debt the U.S. has incurred; the ability of the U.S. to feed itself has diminished something like 70% while the population has increased greatly; mass migration from the cities; housing crisis with foreclosures about to hit critical mass; the need for oil has greatly increased; and, not but least is that our enemies have grown much more sophisticated.



By the way, I ordered the movie which is available on Amazon.com

Urban Survival Firearms - Weapons Manual Resource

Gun manuals galore. Sent to me by a buddy who is also a member of the National Rifle Association, this is a great resource to have. It would take some work but it may be a great idea to download at least the manuals for the guns you have and maybe some common guns as well onto a thumb drive and/or make printed copies as well.

The architect of this website providing the firearms is Stephen Ricciardelli of Saint Marie, Montana. If you like the site, there is a tab to make a donation to Mr. Ricciardelli.

http://stevespages.com/page7b.htm


This is really a treasure chest of manuals. I am amazed at how complete the list is.

Survival Preparation - The Link Between the Japan Crisis and Mormons

The Japan crisis has been a boon to the Survival Preparation movement inciting discussions on everything from radiation detection and protection, to stored foods, to location of Survival sites to avoid potential natural disasters. I would be willing to bet that Survival Equipment and Material manufacturers and vendors also experienced an increase in sales.

Those of you having a hard time convincing your family and friends to plan and prep may want to share this article with them. Mormom's treat Survival and Disaster Preparation as away of life and not from a strict survivalist's point ofo view.....Hey, works for me.

Reuters published an article almost two weeks ago, titled “Japan crisis spurs survival planning by U.S. Mormons”, which on it’s face is not correct since the Mormon community has been preparing in general for decades, if not a century. In fact, they may be the “modern” era master Survival Preparers. One concept they get is that Survival is a Team Sport.

Reuters
By Laura Zuckerman – Sat Apr 2,
SALMON, Idaho (Reuters) – While the nuclear crisis in Japan unfolds a continent away, Mormon-dominated communities in the western United States say the disaster overseas is bringing close to home a lesson about preparing for the worst.

Emergency planning and the long-term storage of food, water and medical supplies are central practices by the 14 million worldwide members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

The tradition stems from doctrine - "If ye are prepared ye shall not fear" - established by Joseph Smith when he founded the church in 1830 in upstate New York . It also stems from the persecution that drove his early followers from the Midwest to the Rocky Mountains in 1847.

Present-day Mormons, concentrated in the United States in Utah, California and Idaho, say preparedness and self-reliance are a way of life and not signs of survivalist leanings or knee-jerk responses to disasters.

"It's not a sudden, spectacular program," said Craig Rasmussen, spokesman for the church in Idaho , second only to Utah for the highest percentage of Mormons.

Worries about radiation from Japan 's crippled nuclear plants have spurred sales in the West of potassium iodide to block absorption of cancer-causing radioactive iodine even though U.S. officials say minor amounts detected in the air, rainwater or milk in 15 states pose no health risks.

At a time of renewed interest in how to cope with calamity in a region where Mormonism is the prevailing religious, cultural and social influence, companies selling dehydrated, freeze-dried or canned foods in bulk are reporting rising sales. Don Pectol, vice president with Emergency Essentials Inc., a retail and online emergency supply chain based near Salt Lake City , said top sellers are powdered milk, water purifiers and meat processed to extend shelf life.

Pectol said the spike came after harmless levels of radiation were detected in states like Utah , Idaho and Arizona and the upsurge is similar to one that happened when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005.

Another online seller of stored food said on its website that dried dairy products and powered eggs were temporarily unavailable.

University of Colorado sociologist Kathleen Tierney, head of a national institute that tracks society's reactions to disasters, said potential nuclear threats place people on heightened alert.

She said fears lessen with measures like stocking up on food or remedies because a sense of control replaces the feeling of helplessness.

"It's normal behavior during uncertainty," said Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center in Boulder , Colorado .

Mormon Mark Oliverson, a dentist and father of three in the remote mountain town of Salmon in central Idaho , said he and his wife routinely add and rotate items in the family's year-long supply of food. The couple also attends the church's workshops on emergency planning, food storage and other practices that make up so-called provident living.

"It puts you in a position to take care of yourself and provide for your family through hard times - and that puts you in a good position to help others," he said.

Church leaders say that principle allows it to respond to emergencies worldwide. In the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, Mormon missionaries working in areas near Japan 's stricken nuclear reactors were moved to safety.

Officials said congregations in Japan have since set up an emergency response committee to organize volunteers distributing food, water, fuel and blankets.

The hazard center's Tierney said models like that confirm studies that show "we are better people in disasters than in day-to-day situations."

Eric Erickson, head of a group of Mormon congregations in the eastern Idaho community of Rexburg, where 90 percent of 24,000 residents are church members, said the crisis in Japan would likely prompt local leaders to fine-tune emergency plans and communications systems.

"Katrina provided us the opportunity to re-look at things and revisit those principles; this will be another," he said.