UrbanMan’s reply: Great question on how does an individual or Survival Group determine if their location is on a mass migration or refugee route or are situated to be endangered by other factors. Weather,..i.e..warm weather may be a factor if the event, such as utilities failure or fuel oil shortages occurs during the winter time. The catalyst is probably more likely to be a food shortage.
I do not know your location, and it would probably not be a good idea to send any other information to me,…in other words keep your OPSEC tight. I picked out a region of Ohio for my example on the map below. The first thing I would is to determine the possible events that could place your location in danger of pushing hungry and desperate people your way,…the effects of a refugee stream and what the effects would be on your safety and survival.
Some of those events and questions may be:
1. Food stores and deliveries dry up in a nearby city pushing people your direction. Are you located on a natural route out of the city? Is there a reason refugees would moved in your direction? On the map imagine you are located in Burton , Ohio ,…seemingly well off the beaten path from the larger cities of Cleveland and Youngstown . Would food shortages or infrastructure/utility failures in Youngstown drive refugee migration towards Cleveland where people may supposed food stores exist due to Cleveland ’s location on Lake Erie and commodities deliveries would go there first before being delivered to interior locations?
2. Are you between major cities where events such as a large scale chemical accident or even a man-made or man caused event such as a nuclear detonation may drive people your way? Consider routes both ways,…would a major event in Cleveland drive people towards Youngstown and therefore either transiting close by or even through Burton?
3. The major lines of communication (called LOC’s) or otherwise known as the interstates and highways would be heavily traveled during a refugee migration or evacuation. Some people will be using these routes because they are the fastest routes,….while others may think that a carefully developed routes using secondary state highways may be safer. I think the major LOC’s will be problematic as grid lock, breakdowns, gas shortages, accidents and possibly armed bandit groups preying on people can or will make these dangerous.
4. Having some sort of early warning system would be huge to prepare against refugee tidal wave. Friends, family or cultivated sources/alliances with a means of communications are important even if you are not necessarily directly on a refugee route. Consider the map below. The circle around Burton is a notional Area of Operations (AO) also called Area of Responsibility (AOR). This may be the circle that all your group lives within,….maybe where your crop fields and other resources are contained, etc. Anything that can happen outside of your AOR but can influence things inside your AOR is called your Area of Influence (AI). You will need to determine decision points or area(s) of interest such as the intersection of 422 and 322, where refugees could first be confirmed if they went NW towards Burton , or even due NORTH on 422 towards Middlefield. Because once in Middlefield, they could easily turn WEST and roll in to Burton . These are places where you should know the refugees are transiting through and that information relayed to the group in Burton.
It would be important to know and have looked at (reconnoitered) locations such as choke points along these natural refugee routes, such as bridges, big turns in the roads, low ground on the road or covered and concealed areas close to the road or really anyplace where a blockade, checkpoint or even an ambush can be conducted to keep large groups from rolling into your AOR.
Being self sufficient,….having stored food and being able to grow your own food, having a good year round water source, family and neighbors you can count on and the ability to protect yourself, are all necessary for survival during a collapse, but being rolled over by massive amounts of hungry, desperate people or even just having to deal with and maybe feed or treat a smaller number could spell your doom. You and your people are ahead of the effort in many ways if you are a Christian Group and living in a small town. It helps to have a common denominator within the Survival Group, other than just the desire to survive. Baseline morals and the value system is highly important to have an effective team that works well together on survival essential goals.
Again, I picked Burton at random. I know of no one living in Burton or even in Ohio...other than the general description of the state from the reader comment.
