Urban Survival - My Older Friends Getting Prepared

I have some friends, an older couple, not their real names but I'll call them Bill and Betty, both in their early 60's and raising a granddaughter who is 20 years old and attending community college.  Both of them have started a preparedness plan for themselves and their granddaughter.  They recognize what our politicans seemingly do not, that this country is heading for a major collapse,...whether it comes gradual or is an "all of a sudden WTSHTF" scenario is anyone's guess.  I guess their are advantages and disavantages to both scenarios or collapse timelines, but nevertheless, preparation to survive is necessary.   

Anyway , these friends of mine are starting to put some food away.  Betty is a homemaker and Bill works as a supervisor at a local plant.   Betty has started a garden this year, repalcing her flowers with vegetables and has revisiting the ability to can with a procurement of a pressure cooker and a couple cases of mason jars.  Bill has pulled his shotguns and hunting rifle out of the closet and is looking to get a handgun and an semi-auto rifle.

The other weekend both stopped by and asked what else I thought they could do.  They warned me that they are not the type to grab a couple of Bug Out Bags and "head for hills".  I said of course not, but they would have to have some sort of plan (and contingencies - remember PACE planning?) in case their Bug In plan would lead to certain death,.....either through starvation or a violent end.  So they are re-looking that aspect.  It's a hard thing to do,...be older than some.....and look at your retirement years with anxiety.
SO I told them the easy things they could right now are: 

Get Betty a cell phone.  Bill and the granddaughter both have them and Betty should as well.

Get onto the County's emergency notification text system, where the county government sends out warning messages via text alerts on the weather, power shortages, water shortages and natural disasters. 

Get a family locator system for the cell phones, where you can go to a web based application and geo-locate any of your phones. 

Have some safe areas planned for rally points.  For travel to and from the plant, or grocery sore or college, determine best places to hole up if need be.  If natural or man made disasters make a safe place necessary,...and this becomes a rally point where people can find you.

Join or develop a Neighborhood Crime Watch group in your area.  Local Law Enforcement supports this,....and it is free to do,...only costs time.   The great thing about this is two fold:  you get to know your neighbors and you develop some sort of organization and can be very useful when the collapse hits.     
        
I also told Bill that a concealed handgun class and permit would be a good idea both him, Betty and the granddaughter.

Finally, Bill is old enough to know the history of Gold and Silver in this country and understand the value of having some put away. It is not too late to start. I suggested to them to start buying a little Silver as they could.

Survival Planning - The Economy is Not Getting Better!

Don't let the compromise on the Federal FY11 Budget fool you into thinking the economy is better or that we have staved off an economic collapse. The next budget fights are much more important and will have a greater impact on the speed of inflation and the path of an economic collapse.

The first one will be whether or not to extend the debt ceiling - the limit on U.S. borrowing, and the second one being the FY12 Federal Budget.

The best case scenario for continued life as we know it, is a vote NOT to increase the debt ceiling AND NO to new printing of money (called Quanitative Easing or QE) to remedy low cash flow. However this would mean that the Chinese and to a lesser extent the Japanese continue to buy our debt to finance our Federal expenditures. The likelyhood of this hapening is remote. The Chinese are battling their own inflation and also desire to replace the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency...... enroute to seeing the U.S. as a second rate economy and world power. The Japanese are also over their head in debt and face massive rebuilding and political upheaval from the earthquake, Tusnami and nuclear power plant disasters.

So boys and girls, there is nothing to indicate an easing of Survival Preparations,....in fact, recent events and the Federal Government's admission of and inability to fix the debt, ease rising prices on fuel and commodities and inability to divert a collapsing economy all point to a necessary increase in Survival preparation.

Chris Martenson's newsletter with an article by Paul Tustain, sum up the debt issue as it related to a collpasing economy and the value of Gold and Silver:

"When a country's public debt exceeds 90% of GDP, that is the magic number. You get to 90%, there is no way back, and that is the number that the U.S. is going through pretty much as we speak. It is also the number which the UK has gone through; all of the PIGS are going through it, as well. They are all going past the 90% debt to GDP ratio. Obviously, Japan is miles past it already. It's up to 200%+. There does not appear, in the historical analysis, to be any great likelihood of getting back from that level of debt safely. There is this strong evidence that above 90% debt to GDP, you will experience either a cataclysmic default or some form of very serious inflation."

"So observes Paul Tustain, gold market analyst and founder of BullionVault. In his view, gold serves as a beacon who's price is currently signalling the monteary system is in grave danger."

So we are not out of the storm,...if anything we are in the eye of the storm with the backside of it stronger than anyone can predict.

Urban Survival Planning - Disease and Infection Threat

I think my two main medical worries during a collapse, which is large or sustained enough to severely degrade available medical support, would be:
1 - my ability or inability to treat common infections, and
2 – pandemic disease made mobile by mass migration of the population looking for food and safety.

The average Survivalist’s ability to procure and stock antibiotics is pretty limited. I suspect many individuals and survival groups are intending to minimize the threat of infection by robust preventive measures, such as a high level of cleanliness, and the use of non-traditional treatments such as herbs and home remedies.

If you watch the excellent After Armageddon Video Series I have on the left hand side of this page, you will see the video’s main character dying from an infection years after the initiation of the collapse (which was caused by a pandemic).

Although I cam concerned about pandemic disease, other than being careful with your handling protocols for strangers and stragglers and appropriate use of personal protective gear, there is not a lot that we can do about it in regards to stocking medication and being prepared to treat.

What is really scary is the new generation of super-infections that are resistant to most antibiotics, especially the common medications we are able to stock. The below is an article by Lisa Collier at Healthline on antibiotic resistant superbugs that I thought may give us all pause for thinking.

Antibiotic Superbugs CRKP & MRSA: Who's at Risk?

Misuse of antibiotics has led to a global health threat: the rise of dangerous—or even fatal—superbugs. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is now attacking both patients in hospitals and also in the community and a deadly new multi-drug resistant bacteria called carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, or CRKP is now in the headlines. Last year, antibiotic resistant infections killed 25,000 people in Europe, the Guardian reports.

Unless steps are taken to address this crisis, the cures doctors have counted on to battle bacteria will soon be useless. CRKP has now been reported in 36 US states—and health officials suspect that it may also be triggering infections in the other 14 states where reporting isn’t required. High rates have been found in long-term care facilities in Los Angeles County , where the superbug was previously believed to be rare, according to a study presented earlier this month. CRKP is even scarier than MRSA because the new superbug is resistant to almost all antibiotics, while a few types of antibiotics still work on MRSA. Who’s at risk for superbugs—and what can you do to protect yourself and family members? Here’s a guide to these dangerous bacteria.

Understanding different types of bacteria.

What is antibiotic resistance? Almost every type of bacteria has evolved and mutated to become less and less responsive to common antibiotics, largely due to overuse of these medications. Because superbugs are resistant to these drugs, they can quickly spread in hospitals and the community, causing infections that are hard or even impossible to cure. Doctors are forced to turn to more expensive and sometimes more toxic drugs of last resort. The problem is that every time antibiotics are used, some bacteria survive, giving rise to dangerous new strains like MRSA and CRKP, the CDC reports.

What are CRKP and MRSA? Klebseiella is a common type of gram-negative bacteria that are found in our intestines (where the bugs don’t cause disease). The CRKP strain is resistant to almost all antibiotics, including carbapenems, the so-called “antibiotics of last resort.” MRSA (methacillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus) is a type of bacteria that live on the skin and can burrow deep into the body if someone has cuts or wounds, including those from surgery.

Who is at risk? CRKP and MRSA infects patients, usually the elderly—who are already ill and living in long-term healthcare facilities, such as nursing homes. People who are on ventilators, require IVs, or have undergone prolonged treatment with certain antibiotics face the greatest threat of CRKP infection. Healthy people are at very low risk for CRKP. There are 2 types of MRSA, a form that affects hospital patients, with similar risk factors to CRKP, and another even more frightening strain found in communities, attacking people of all ages who have not been in medical facilities, including athletes, weekend warriors who use locker rooms, kids in daycare centers, soldiers, and people who get tattoos. Nearly 500,000 people a year are hospitalized with MRSA.

Keeping hospital patients safe. How likely is it to be fatal? In earlier outbreaks, 35 percent of CRKP-infected patients died, Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) reported in 2008. The death rate among those affected by the current outbreak isn’t yet known. About 19,000 deaths a year are linked to MRSA in the US and rates of the disease has rise 10-fold, with most infections found in the community.

How does it spread? Both MRSA and CRKP are mainly transmitted by person-to-person contact, such as the infected hands of a healthcare provider. They can enter the lungs through a ventilator, causing pneumonia, the bloodstream through an IV catheter, causing bloodstream infection (sepsis), or the urinary tract through a catheter, causing a urinary tract infection. Both can also cause surgical wounds to become infected. MRSA can also be spread in contact with infected items, such as sharing razors, clothing, and sports equipment. These superbugs are not spread through the air.

What are the symptoms? Since CRKP presents itself as a variety of illnesses, most commonly pneumonia, meningitis, urinary tract infections, wound (or surgical site) infections and blood infections, symptoms reflect those illnesses, most often pneumonia. MRSA typically causes boils and abscesses that resemble infected bug bites, but can also present as pneumonia or flu-like symptoms.

How are superbugs related? The only drug that still works against the CRKP is colistin, a toxic antibiotic that can damage the kidneys. Several drugs, such as vancomycin, may still work against MRSA.

What’s the best protection against superbugs? Healthcare providers are prescribing fewer antibiotics, to help prevent CRKP, MRSA and other superbugs from developing resistance to even more antibiotics. The best way to stop bacteria from spreading is simple hygiene. If someone you know is in a nursing home or hospital, make sure doctors and staff wash their hands in front of you. Also wash your own hands frequently, with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, avoid sharing personal items, and shower after using gym equipment. The CDC has reports on Klebsiella bacteria and MRSA, discussing how to prevent their spread and has just issued a new report on preventing bloodstream infections.

Urban Survival - NIA's 12 Warning Signs of Hyper-Inflation

Here are NIA's top 12 warning signs that hyperinflation is about to occur:

1) The Federal Reserve is Buying 70% of U.S. Treasuries. The Federal Reserve has been buying 70% of all new U.S. treasury debt. Up until this year, the U.S. has been successful at exporting most of its inflation to the rest of the world, which is hoarding huge amounts of U.S. dollar reserves due to the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. In recent months, foreign central bank purchases of U.S. treasuries have declined from 50% down to 30%, and Federal Reserve purchases have increased from 10% up to 70%. This means U.S. government deficit spending is now directly leading to U.S. inflation that will destroy the standard of living for all Americans.
UrbanMan's comment: This is like using one credit card to pay the bill of another. Unsustainable and leads the country to the brink of the dollar collapse.

2) The Private Sector Has Stopped Purchasing U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. private sector was previously a buyer of 30% of U.S. government bonds sold. Today, the U.S. private sector has stopped buying U.S. treasuries and is dumping government debt. The Pimco Total Return Fund was recently the single largest private sector owner of U.S. government bonds, but has just reduced its U.S. treasury holdings down to zero. Although during the financial panic of 2008, investors purchased government bonds as a safe haven, during all future panics we believe precious metals will be the new safe haven.

3) China Moving Away from U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency. The U.S. dollar became the world's reserve currency because it was backed by gold and the U.S. had the world's largest manufacturing base. Today, the U.S. dollar is no longer backed by gold and China has the world's largest manufacturing base. There is no reason for the world to continue to transact products and commodities in U.S. dollars, when most of everything the world consumes is now produced in China. China has been taking steps to position the yuan to be the world's new reserve currency.

4) Japan to Begin Dumping U.S. Treasuries. Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. treasury securities with $885.9 billion in U.S. dollar reserves. Although China has reduced their U.S. treasury holdings for three straight months, Japan has increased their U.S. treasury holdings seven months in a row. Japan is the country that has been the most consistent at buying our debt for the past year, but that is about the change. Japan is likely going to have to spend $300 billion over the next year to rebuild parts of their country that were destroyed by the recent earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster, and NIA believes their U.S. dollar reserves will be the most likely source of this funding. This will come at the worst possible time for the U.S., which needs Japan to increase their purchases of U.S. treasuries in order to fund our record budget deficits.

5) The Fed Funds Rate Remains Near Zero. The Federal Reserve has held the Fed Funds Rate at 0.00-0.25% since December 16th, 2008, a period of over 27 months. This is unprecedented and NIA believes the world is now flooded with excess liquidity of U.S. dollars.

NIA believes gold, and especially silver, are much better hedges against inflation than U.S. equities, which is why for the past couple of years we have been predicting large declines in both the Dow/Gold and Gold/Silver ratios. These two ratios have been in free fall exactly like NIA projected.
UrbanMan's comment: Yesterday's closing Gold and Silver prices are: $1459.10 for Gold and $39.51 for Silver.

6) Year-Over-Year CPI Growth Has Increased 92% in Three Months. In November of 2010, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS)'s consumer price index (CPI) grew by 1.1% over November of 2009. In February of 2011, the BLS's CPI grew by 2.11% over February of 2010, above the Fed's informal inflation target of 1.5% to 2%. An increase in year-over-year CPI growth from 1.1% in November of last year to 2.11% in February of this year means that the CPI's growth rate increased by approximately 92% over a period of just three months. Imagine if the year-over-year CPI growth rate continues to increase by 92% every three months. In 9 to 12 months from now we could be looking at a price inflation rate of over 15%. Even if the BLS manages to artificially hold the CPI down around 5% or 6%, NIA believes the real rate of price inflation will still rise into the double-digits within the next year.

7) Mainstream Media Denying Fed's Target Passed. You would think that year-over-year CPI growth rising from 1.1% to 2.11% over a period of three months for an increase of 92% would generate a lot of media attention, especially considering that it has now surpassed the Fed's informal inflation target of 1.5% to 2%. Instead of acknowledging that inflation is beginning to spiral out of control and encouraging Americans to prepare for hyperinflation like NIA has been doing for years, the media decided to conveniently change the way it defines the Fed's informal target.

8) Record U.S. Budget Deficit in February of $222.5 Billion. The U.S. government just reported a record budget deficit for the month of February of $222.5 billion. February's budget deficit was more than the entire fiscal year of 2007. In fact, February's deficit on an annualized basis was $2.67 trillion. NIA believes this is just a preview of future annual budget deficits, and we will see annual budget deficits surpass $2.67 trillion within the next several years.

9) High Budget Deficit as Percentage of Expenditures. The projected U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2011 of $1.645 trillion is 43% of total projected government expenditures in 2011 of $3.819 trillion. That is almost exactly the same level of Brazil's budget deficit as a percentage of expenditures right before they experienced hyperinflation in 1993 and it is higher than Bolivia's budget deficit as a percentage of expenditures right before they experienced hyperinflation in 1985. The only way a country can survive with such a large deficit as a percentage of expenditures and not have hyperinflation, is if foreigners are lending enough money to pay for the bulk of their deficit spending. Hyperinflation broke out in Brazil and Bolivia when foreigners stopped lending and central banks began monetizing the bulk of their deficit spending, and that is exactly what is taking place today in the U.S.

10) Obama Lies About Foreign Policy. President Obama campaigned as an anti-war President who would get our troops out of Iraq. NIA believes that many Libertarian voters actually voted for Obama in 2008 over John McCain because they felt Obama was more likely to end our wars that are adding greatly to our budget deficits and making the U.S. a lot less safe as a result. Obama may have reduced troop levels in Iraq, but he increased troops levels in Afghanistan, and is now sending troops into Libya for no reason.

11) Obama Changes Definition of Balanced Budget. In the White House's budget projections for the next 10 years, they don't project that the U.S. will ever come close to achieving a real balanced budget. In fact, after projecting declining budget deficits up until the year 2015 (NIA believes we are unlikely to see any major dip in our budget deficits due to rising interest payments on our national debt), the White House projects our budget deficits to begin increasing again up until the year 2021. Obama recently signed an executive order to create the "National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform", with a mission to "propose recommendations designed to balance the budget, excluding interest payments on the debt, by 2015". Obama is redefining a balanced budget to exclude interest payments on our national debt, because he knows interest payments are about to explode and it will be impossible to truly balance the budget.

12) U.S. Faces Largest Ever Interest Payment Increases. With U.S. inflation beginning to spiral out of control, NIA believes it is 100% guaranteed that we will soon see a large spike in long-term bond yields. Not only that, but within the next couple of years, NIA believes the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the Fed Funds Rate in a last-ditch effort to prevent hyperinflation. When both short and long-term interest rates start to rise, so will the interest payments on our national debt. With the public portion of our national debt now exceeding $10 trillion, we could see interest payments on our debt reach $500 billion within the next year or two, and over $1 trillion somewhere around mid-decade. When interest payments reach $1 trillion, they will likely be around 30% to 40% of government tax receipts, up from interest payments being only 9% of tax receipts today. No country has ever seen interest payments on their debt reach 40% of tax receipts without hyperinflation occurring in the years to come.

UrbanMan's comment: Things are not looking good for us or the U.S. You add antedotal information from large amounts of people buying Gold and Silver; buying guns; stocking food and you begin to believe that the path is irreversible. I hope not. I would just as soon have my Survival Preparation,....my Silver,...my guns and ammunition all stay on the shelves and in the gun safes. But I fear this is not going to be the case.

Message from NIA: It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us