U.S. Dollar Collapse Could Occur at Any Time
Very good and succint article on the impending collapse from Inflation.us
You should bookmark and add to your sources of collapse indicators.
Highlights from the article is below; please go to http://www.inflation.us/ to read the article in it's entirety.
China this morning reported 4.9% price inflation for the month of February
China was at least smart enough to raise interest rates last month by 25 basis points to 6.06%, while the Federal Reserve continues to leave interest rates near zero with there being absolutely no talk of the Federal Reserve ever raising interest rates again.
China will be successful at containing inflation, as U.S. inflation spirals out of control and becomes the greatest economic crisis in American history.
China this week reported a $7.3 billion trade deficit for the month of February, its largest trade deficit in seven years, which surprised many global economists. NIA believes China 's trade deficit is temporary and that China will quickly return to having a trade surplus.
The Federal Reserve's QE2 along with China 's destructive monetary policies, which artificially devalue the yuan, have led to a massive rise in China 's raw material costs this year. NIA believes that in the upcoming months, Chinese manufacturers will raise the prices of their products that get exported to the U.S., to counteract rising commodity prices.
With most products used by Americans today having been manufactured in China , this will mean Americans will soon see massive price inflation in just about all consumer goods they use. NIA projects that by the end of 2011, we will begin to see the U.S. CPI increase by 4.9% or higher on a year-over-year basis, with real U.S. price inflation rising north of 10%.
The mainstream media is proclaiming that China 's trade deficit will silence calls for the Chinese to allow their currency to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The fact is, China 's government has for long been making the major mistake of printing too many yuan in order to artificially prop up the U.S. dollar. Their fear was, if the U.S. dollar was allowed to decline too rapidly, prices of Chinese goods would rise in terms of U.S. dollars and Americans would no longer afford to import them.
The truth is, if China allowed the yuan to strengthen, the Chinese would have enjoyed a much higher standard of living. Sure, prices would rise in dollars and Americans would import less, but the Chinese would have the ability to consume more of their own products. Now, as a result of China expanding its own money supply in order to keep the yuan pegged to the U.S. dollar, Americans will be forced to pay a much higher price for Chinese goods.
The U.S. government has been successful at temporarily paying off Americans into not rioting in the streets like in Arab nations. It was just announced a few days ago that the number of Americans on food stamps in the month of December of 2010 was a record 44,082,324, up 13.1% from one year earlier and 1.1% from one month earlier. That is more than 14% of the total U.S. population!
Combined with President Obama extending unemployment benefits up to 99 weeks, American citizens are too busy and distracted playing with their iPad 2s and gossiping on Twitter about Charlie Sheen, to have any time to protest in Washington, DC.
NIA believes the U.S. government's entitlement spending is currently having the unintended consequence of making Americans dependent on government. It is like when you take wild animals into captivity and you feed them, teach them to do tricks and take care of them for a period of many years; if you just dump them one day back into the wild, it will be very difficult for them to survive. Americans who have become dependent on unemployment checks and food stamps will likely soon abruptly find out that they must begin to fend for themselves without any help from the government. The result will be many Americans turning into wild animals and becoming so desperate that they will have to rob and burglarize their fellow neighbors who were smart enough to prepare, or else they will risk starving to death.
This is what UrbanSurivalSkills has been saying, that we will have 80-120 million people that can't feed themseleves - this is a recipe for anarchy.
The U.S. budget deficit in the month of February reached a record $222.5 billion or $2.67 trillion on an annualized basis. With the Federal Reserve now monetizing our debt in full swing, a complete and total loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar could be imminent.
Just like how nobody in the mainstream media was calling for the collapse of Egypt's government a few months ago, almost nobody in the media believes a collapse of the U.S. dollar could possibly take place anytime soon.
NIA members are educated enough to see that the writing is on the wall. The Federal Reserve can deny all it wants that the U.S. is experiencing inflation, but with the cost to print a single U.S. dollar paper note rising by 50% since 2008, massive inflation is here right under Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's nose.
So few Americans are presently preparing for hyperinflation that if hyperinflation broke out today, approximately 90% of Americans won't have the means to put food on the table or put fuel in their automobiles. During the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis, food stamps will no longer have any value at all and all U.S. entitlement programs will come to a complete halt. Americans will take to the streets like the world has never seen before.
The biggest question NIA has today is, will the U.S. government resort to firing at its own citizens?, if major riots take place in Washington, DC. On Thursday, police in Saudi Arabia shot and wounded three protesters. The price of oil rose by a few dollars per barrel as soon as this news hit the wire, which shows just how nervous the world's financial markets have become in recent weeks and the Dow Jones has declined significantly in recent days.
From April to August of 2010, the last time the Federal Reserve allowed its balance sheet to shrink, the Dow Jones fell by over 1,000 points. If we see a major sell off in stocks, we could see gold and silver rise along with the Dow Jones falling.
NIA believes the worst decision any American can make is to sell their gold and silver and go long U.S. dollars, hoping to buy their precious metals back at a lower price in the future.Amen to that!
You can become a member of NIA for free at: http://inflation.us/
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Urban Survival Planning - Basic Message Encryption (Secure Your Communications)
UrbanSurvivalSkills.com has received several requests for information on encrypted radios or otherwise an ability to code messages.
The security of communications is dependant upon who you want to protect it from and how much money you want to spend doing so.
Non-encrypted radio communications are vulnerable to handheld or larger scanners. Privacy codes can be easily overcame by hand held scanners. Inversion of verbal communications - same thing,...easily decrypted with a plug in SD card.
Verbal communications can be protected to a degree through the use of brevity codes. This is nothing more that anticipating what you need to verbalize on the radio and condensing that to a pre-planned brevity.
An example of a brevity code would be an element from your survival site is conducting a security patrol around the survival site. Maybe you use a brevity code like this: ALPHA = Situation normal, conducting patrol; BRAVO = in Sector One; CHARLIE = in Sector Two; DELTA = in Sector Three; ECHO = conducting short term halt; FOXTROT = have eyes on armed group; GOLF = <10; HOTEL = <20; INDIA = >20; JULIET = moving back to camp; KILO = 15 minutes from re-entering Survival Site. So with this brevity code, if the patrol sends a "DELTA, FOXROT, GOLF" it means they are in patrol sector three and are observing an armed group of less than 10 people. This keeps transmission times down and protects the information you are sending over the air.
So the bottom line on brevities is that a one or two word phrase has an elaborative meaning to condense transmission times. However, continued use of the same brevities would allow a intercepting station to piece together your code.
Another, much more secure method, abeit time consuming method of encrypting messages is through letter transpositions using a tri-graph. See the diagram below:
You need a key to encrypt your message against. A book is a good example, and in some circles this is called a “book code”. Let’s say you and your survival partners decide on a book, and a method of ensuring the other party knows which page to use to decrypt. At the beginning of each message you can say or write “ONE THREE HOTEL FIVE XRAY”. The end user knows to remove the letters to get 135 and that would be the page to start on.
You are part of a survival group that is Bugging Out tomorrow night to a Bug Out Location and you want to let the people in your group at the BOL to know to expect you. You want to send the message “WE ARE MOVING TOMORROW NIGHT, TUES NIGHT, TO YOUR LOCATION”. You add “ONE THREE HOTEL FIVE XRAY” to the message to tell the other group that this is the page they should be encrypting from.
From page 135 of the book, you writes the text from the book in groups of five letters. In this case “Out in the meadow was a blue van with all four tires flat and all windows busted,….” In groups of five letters and underneath those letters you write the message “We are moving tomorrow night xx Tues night xx to your location” (note 1: use double x to indicate a commo or repeat - or to fill up spaces; use triple x to indicate a break or period). (note 2: writing out the book code in groups of five letters just makes it easier to encrypt with tri-graph).
(from book)
OUTIN THEME ADOWW ASABL UEVAN WITHA LLFOU RTIRE SFLAT ANDAL LWIND
(message to be encrypted and sent)
WEARE MOVIN GTOMM ORROW NIGHT XXTUE SNIGH TXXTO YOURL LOCAT IONXX
From here you use the Tri-Graph to transpose the letters. From the Tri-Graph find the “O” on the top line then the “W” in the left column then see what letter intersects,.... it should be the “K”. From the “U” and the “E” you should get a “Y”, and so on.
Your final encrypted message would be: KYTZR FVZUR GQCII OJRPH HMBHG TFMBE DYNUB KQFKS QTFRE LBFAE TKVKA
You would send that via e-mail, text or voice communications,....if by voice then you would phonetically sound out each letter,… “KILO YANKEE, TANGO, ZULU, ROMEO, etc.
At the other end your encrypted message would be written underneath the same phrase, it would look like this:
(from book)
OUTIN THEME ADOWW ASABL UEVAN WITHA LLFOU RTIRE SFLAT ANDAL LWIND
(message to be de-crypted)
KYTZR FVZUR GQCII OJRPH HMBHG TFMBE DYNUB KQFKS QTFRE LBFAE TKVKA
It would be decrypted at the other end by locating the “O” on the Tri-Graph, going horizontally across to the “K” then looking across the top of the Tri-Graph to see what letter than pertained to, and in this case a “W”. The same for the next letter, which is a “U”. Locate the “U” on the left hand column of the Tri-Graph, go across to the “Y” then up to the top of the Tri-Graph and you should get a “E”, and so forth.
Messages using this manual encryption could be written on paper and passed either face to face or through a dead drop if you are in a situation where a threat has the ability to intercept and direction find your phones or radios, and the telephones are either down or monitored. If a occupation force or a nearby threat has intercept and DF capability, then talking in an obvious code would spin them up and draw attention to you.
The security of communications is dependant upon who you want to protect it from and how much money you want to spend doing so.
Non-encrypted radio communications are vulnerable to handheld or larger scanners. Privacy codes can be easily overcame by hand held scanners. Inversion of verbal communications - same thing,...easily decrypted with a plug in SD card.
Verbal communications can be protected to a degree through the use of brevity codes. This is nothing more that anticipating what you need to verbalize on the radio and condensing that to a pre-planned brevity.
An example of a brevity code would be an element from your survival site is conducting a security patrol around the survival site. Maybe you use a brevity code like this: ALPHA = Situation normal, conducting patrol; BRAVO = in Sector One; CHARLIE = in Sector Two; DELTA = in Sector Three; ECHO = conducting short term halt; FOXTROT = have eyes on armed group; GOLF = <10; HOTEL = <20; INDIA = >20; JULIET = moving back to camp; KILO = 15 minutes from re-entering Survival Site. So with this brevity code, if the patrol sends a "DELTA, FOXROT, GOLF" it means they are in patrol sector three and are observing an armed group of less than 10 people. This keeps transmission times down and protects the information you are sending over the air.
So the bottom line on brevities is that a one or two word phrase has an elaborative meaning to condense transmission times. However, continued use of the same brevities would allow a intercepting station to piece together your code.
Another, much more secure method, abeit time consuming method of encrypting messages is through letter transpositions using a tri-graph. See the diagram below:
You need a key to encrypt your message against. A book is a good example, and in some circles this is called a “book code”. Let’s say you and your survival partners decide on a book, and a method of ensuring the other party knows which page to use to decrypt. At the beginning of each message you can say or write “ONE THREE HOTEL FIVE XRAY”. The end user knows to remove the letters to get 135 and that would be the page to start on.
You are part of a survival group that is Bugging Out tomorrow night to a Bug Out Location and you want to let the people in your group at the BOL to know to expect you. You want to send the message “WE ARE MOVING TOMORROW NIGHT, TUES NIGHT, TO YOUR LOCATION”. You add “ONE THREE HOTEL FIVE XRAY” to the message to tell the other group that this is the page they should be encrypting from.
From page 135 of the book, you writes the text from the book in groups of five letters. In this case “Out in the meadow was a blue van with all four tires flat and all windows busted,….” In groups of five letters and underneath those letters you write the message “We are moving tomorrow night xx Tues night xx to your location” (note 1: use double x to indicate a commo or repeat - or to fill up spaces; use triple x to indicate a break or period). (note 2: writing out the book code in groups of five letters just makes it easier to encrypt with tri-graph).
(from book)
OUTIN THEME ADOWW ASABL UEVAN WITHA LLFOU RTIRE SFLAT ANDAL LWIND
(message to be encrypted and sent)
WEARE MOVIN GTOMM ORROW NIGHT XXTUE SNIGH TXXTO YOURL LOCAT IONXX
From here you use the Tri-Graph to transpose the letters. From the Tri-Graph find the “O” on the top line then the “W” in the left column then see what letter intersects,.... it should be the “K”. From the “U” and the “E” you should get a “Y”, and so on.
Your final encrypted message would be: KYTZR FVZUR GQCII OJRPH HMBHG TFMBE DYNUB KQFKS QTFRE LBFAE TKVKA
You would send that via e-mail, text or voice communications,....if by voice then you would phonetically sound out each letter,… “KILO YANKEE, TANGO, ZULU, ROMEO, etc.
At the other end your encrypted message would be written underneath the same phrase, it would look like this:
(from book)
OUTIN THEME ADOWW ASABL UEVAN WITHA LLFOU RTIRE SFLAT ANDAL LWIND
(message to be de-crypted)
KYTZR FVZUR GQCII OJRPH HMBHG TFMBE DYNUB KQFKS QTFRE LBFAE TKVKA
It would be decrypted at the other end by locating the “O” on the Tri-Graph, going horizontally across to the “K” then looking across the top of the Tri-Graph to see what letter than pertained to, and in this case a “W”. The same for the next letter, which is a “U”. Locate the “U” on the left hand column of the Tri-Graph, go across to the “Y” then up to the top of the Tri-Graph and you should get a “E”, and so forth.
Messages using this manual encryption could be written on paper and passed either face to face or through a dead drop if you are in a situation where a threat has the ability to intercept and direction find your phones or radios, and the telephones are either down or monitored. If a occupation force or a nearby threat has intercept and DF capability, then talking in an obvious code would spin them up and draw attention to you.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Urban Survival - Scavenger Mindset After the Collapse
On a early morning drive yesterday I was thinking how much things are going to change when the collapse hits, whether it is full blown anarchy or a gradual decline (linked the growing costs of fuel and subsequent increase in all commodities). I imagine how a mass population migration, from the city were food will be scarce and the environment more dangerous, into where I live and how that influences my plan to Bug In as long as I can.
As I was driving there was relative low traffic and could not occupy my time with phone calls and everyone I called did not answer, I thought, “this is probably like when a collapse hits with very minimal vehicle traffic and no cell phone connectivity.”
As I continued on I thought all Survivalists will have to develop a “scavenger mindset” to rapidly spot and assess material and objects for use in their survival plan.
I am not condoning outright stealing or looting. I think a reasonable person could rationalize the temporary borrowing of material with the intent of returning it or paying for it when conditions allow. I would think that familial or survival group safety would outweigh a non-violent/no victim, technical criminal act. This would not be a material confiscation for the intent of barter or selling, only for personal/group use. In the event of full blown anarchy, this may be a different story.
Some of the things I notice along my route and how I could use them in my survival plan:
RR ties. Good use for stacking inside the house underwindows to make a covered position for observation and defense. Can be used for above ground growing beds as well as vehicle obstacles.
Sand bags. I saw traffic and construction signs anchored with stacked sandbags. Sandbags can provide dirt for grow beds and/or used as they are to fortify walls and fighting positions. The highway signs are a source of wood for fires or can be used to build things like chicken coops, rabbitt hutches, etc.
Barbed wire rolls. Saw these inside a open lot leaning up against a chain link fence. Barbed wire is good to lay in obstacles to channel attackers to where you want them. To create a defense in depth that would take attackers time to work through. Can be used to livestock fencing for any goats, pigs or sheep that you barter for, or raise. Can be used to protect crops against varmints, both four legged and two legged. Note to self - Need heavy duty gloves.
Used car lot. A lot of cars for sale, potential for gas, tires, lights and parts. Note to self - need siphon kit (hose and container), screw driver, tire iron and jack.
Pallets stacked up next to a dumpster. Possible source for wood for fires or lumber to build animal cages and even raised crop beds.
Stacked used tires. Tires configured in triangles filled with dirt make good defensive position or vehicle barriers.
Stacks of cardboard boxes next to dumpster. Source for more fire material; maybe for insulation in walls.
Piles of gravel. One use may be as a bottom layer in crop beds for drainage; putting gravel along windows or other secondary accesses to make intruders tread lightly or make noise. Not to self - need shovel and containers.
The next time you are traveling look around, do a mental exercise or inventory on what may be abandoned that you could use and how would you use it.
As I was driving there was relative low traffic and could not occupy my time with phone calls and everyone I called did not answer, I thought, “this is probably like when a collapse hits with very minimal vehicle traffic and no cell phone connectivity.”
As I continued on I thought all Survivalists will have to develop a “scavenger mindset” to rapidly spot and assess material and objects for use in their survival plan.
I am not condoning outright stealing or looting. I think a reasonable person could rationalize the temporary borrowing of material with the intent of returning it or paying for it when conditions allow. I would think that familial or survival group safety would outweigh a non-violent/no victim, technical criminal act. This would not be a material confiscation for the intent of barter or selling, only for personal/group use. In the event of full blown anarchy, this may be a different story.
Some of the things I notice along my route and how I could use them in my survival plan:
RR ties. Good use for stacking inside the house underwindows to make a covered position for observation and defense. Can be used for above ground growing beds as well as vehicle obstacles.
Sand bags. I saw traffic and construction signs anchored with stacked sandbags. Sandbags can provide dirt for grow beds and/or used as they are to fortify walls and fighting positions. The highway signs are a source of wood for fires or can be used to build things like chicken coops, rabbitt hutches, etc.
Barbed wire rolls. Saw these inside a open lot leaning up against a chain link fence. Barbed wire is good to lay in obstacles to channel attackers to where you want them. To create a defense in depth that would take attackers time to work through. Can be used to livestock fencing for any goats, pigs or sheep that you barter for, or raise. Can be used to protect crops against varmints, both four legged and two legged. Note to self - Need heavy duty gloves.
Used car lot. A lot of cars for sale, potential for gas, tires, lights and parts. Note to self - need siphon kit (hose and container), screw driver, tire iron and jack.
Pallets stacked up next to a dumpster. Possible source for wood for fires or lumber to build animal cages and even raised crop beds.
Stacked used tires. Tires configured in triangles filled with dirt make good defensive position or vehicle barriers.
Stacks of cardboard boxes next to dumpster. Source for more fire material; maybe for insulation in walls.
Piles of gravel. One use may be as a bottom layer in crop beds for drainage; putting gravel along windows or other secondary accesses to make intruders tread lightly or make noise. Not to self - need shovel and containers.
The next time you are traveling look around, do a mental exercise or inventory on what may be abandoned that you could use and how would you use it.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Survival Rifle - M4 carbine versus SKS
UrbanSurvvialSkills.com received an Anonymous said... Do I really need an M-4 rifle? I can get an SKS for $339. I know the ammo is more expensive and much harder to obtain, but how much better off am I going to be with an M-4 than an SKS? Thanks.
UrbanMan replies: If you are asking me what weapon would be the better choice for survival and protection, I would say, hands down, the M-4 carbine especially a gas piston version rather than the gas tube version. However, I would not feel slighted in the least with an older gas tube version. In fact, I have several of those.
The reasons I would choose the M-4, or even an AR-15 variant, is that this platform is more accurate than the SKS or the gun that replaced it, the Kalashnikov (AK-47, AKM and variants). Other reasons include: The M-4 in .223 Remington has great ammunition availability; good choice of different bullet configurations from 45 grain frangible, to 55 grain FMJ and tracer, 62 grain steel core penetrator (green tip), and heavier bullets to include the 64 grain PSP, 69 grain JHP and 77 grain JHP; the M-4 uses a detachable box magazine in 20 and 30 round variations and the magazines are plentiful; and, there are wide range of accessories available for this gun.
The SKS is a great gun but not nearly as accurate as the M-4/AR-15 platforms. It’s semi-fixed box magazine allows 10 rounds and then is not as easily to reload and get back into the fight as an M-4. It is a reliable weapon with a great round, the 7.62x39mm also known as the M43 Russian round.
But to really give the best answer I can I would have to know more, such as: Is the SKS or M-4 going to be your only weapon? Are you on a small budget and procurement of the M-4 would take all your funds, not leaving any for other survival equipment or material, particularly food procurement? If the answer is yes, then it would make sense to buy an SKS and an adequate supply of ammunition, say 1,000 rounds, then use the rest of your money to stock food and buy other essential kit for surviving the coming collapse.
I think the best approach for survival on a budget is to spend what you can on immediate needs (these are food, water, shelter and protection) then make future purchases as you can, working off a prioritization list. A firearm is a big purchase. If you procure food in small increments you may not even notice it much. A bag of rice and beans here, a box of bullion there,…..oatmeal, peanut butter, honey are all pretty cheap as well.
So in case I’m confusing you, I would buy the M-4 providing you have the funds to procure in other areas. If not, the SKS may make sense if it allows you to retain money for immediate procurement of food, survival equipment and material and maybe even start buying silver bullion.
Good luck to you and prepare well.
The SKS is a great gun but not nearly as accurate as the M-4/AR-15 platforms. It’s semi-fixed box magazine allows 10 rounds and then is not as easily to reload and get back into the fight as an M-4. It is a reliable weapon with a great round, the 7.62x39mm also known as the M43 Russian round.
But to really give the best answer I can I would have to know more, such as: Is the SKS or M-4 going to be your only weapon? Are you on a small budget and procurement of the M-4 would take all your funds, not leaving any for other survival equipment or material, particularly food procurement? If the answer is yes, then it would make sense to buy an SKS and an adequate supply of ammunition, say 1,000 rounds, then use the rest of your money to stock food and buy other essential kit for surviving the coming collapse.
I think the best approach for survival on a budget is to spend what you can on immediate needs (these are food, water, shelter and protection) then make future purchases as you can, working off a prioritization list. A firearm is a big purchase. If you procure food in small increments you may not even notice it much. A bag of rice and beans here, a box of bullion there,…..oatmeal, peanut butter, honey are all pretty cheap as well.
So in case I’m confusing you, I would buy the M-4 providing you have the funds to procure in other areas. If not, the SKS may make sense if it allows you to retain money for immediate procurement of food, survival equipment and material and maybe even start buying silver bullion.
Good luck to you and prepare well.
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