Urban Survival Planning - Lessons Learned from Katrina

Possibly the best real life Urban Survival example, since the Great Depression, that we can draw lessons learned from is Hurricane Katrina and aftermath of this devastating storm on the greater New Orleans area.

The aftermath killed almost 1,500 people; flooded 80 percent of the city; 70 percent of all occupied housing was damaged; and, over 150 billion in total damages.

These are my observations.

Alot of people died needlessly. They waited too long. Granted they received misleading information from the local government and the local/state government were way too slow in communicating the scope of the impending disaster to the population. People and government just did not have a plan. So the Lesson Learned here is that YOU must have a plan. It must rely on your ability to read indicators. It must rely on your ability to execute. If you have a survival group and they are going to rally at your location or a mutual third party location, consider actions and plans after this that are achievable without all planned parties. They may just not show up.

You cannot count on U.S. Government assistance. This was a pretty small collapse type scenario after all. Only the Greater New Orleans area was damaged. Imagine if this was a natural disaster or a nuclear detonation event or a total power infrastructure collapse over an area five time the size or even larger? The Government would be exponentially slower to respond with less assets per given size of area. Lesson Learned. You are responsible for yourself. Do not count on the Government. If they provide help fine,...just don't count on it,...not in a timely manner and not at all.

On Tuesday morning the storm was over and the Sun came out. With it came looters and killers. Much earlier than anyone ever predicted. Most government experts thought the majority of looting and criminals acts would not start until several days after the storm subsided, but again this was not the case. Lesson Learned. You absolutely have to have the ability protect yourself and your family. I have said it before and I'll say it again,...Survival is a Team Sport. You need a group to survive. A group of people who are alike minded, prepared, equipped and who share the same morale values you have. Choose wisely and equip yourselves. You don't need squad automatic weapons. You need some serviceable firearms with a decent amount of ammunition on hand. I would think that a rifle and handgun for each adult person in your group with one hundred rounds of ammunition per firearms would be a minimal,...a very minimal amount. Some weapons are more preferable than others, but you have what you have. Shotguns would be a good choice of a "special" weapon. Great for defending entry points against massed intruders. Stock buckshot, slug and birdshot for it.

We all saw the Katrina video footage of a very fat lady refusing MRE's from the National Guard on or about Day Four. "I don't want this shit!" Most of us laughed, knowing that MRE's wouldn't be out favorite choice either. But actually they are good eating, decent nutrition and were free to boot. The Lesson Learned here is don't make yourself dependent upon others for food. And this include after the food run outs, you need to be able to grow and procure your own food. In fact, right after I post this, I am going to vacuum pack another bucket of white and brown rice, black and pinto beans, dried split peas, beef bullion cubes, salt, garlic powder, and powdered chicken soup.

Some people were rescued or otherwise made their way to the Superdome where one of the main government care and relief centers was set up (precursor to FEMA camps?). There they were disarmed and some became further victims of criminal elements that were uncontrolled in this facility. Lesson Learned. Never give up your guns! Enough said about that.

Katrina postscript. Five years later, the post Katrina population of New Orleans is still 100,000 less than it was at it's peak, pre-Katrina. There are still almost 64,000 unoccupied buildings or homes in New Orleans, up from less than 20,000 pre-Katrina.. Violent crime which stood at 948 crimes per 100,000 population in 2004 have risen to 1,019 per 100,000 (2008 data).

Be prepared. Be prepared for everything.

Survival Chronciles of Jim - Chapter 17

Last weekend I cached the Survival Equipment and Material that I was talking about in my last Chapter: 22 LR revolver; 200 rounds of .22 LR ammunition; Sharpening device for my knife and hachet; Pack of 8 “AA” rechargeable batteries; Package of 8 boxes of wooden matches; Small gun
cleaning kit; one pair of Green 5.11 pants; Extra t-shirt and Sweatshirt; two small emergency ponchos; and, the #10 can of Vegi-Max Heirloom from EarthWaveLiving.

I still had alittle room in my second PVC container, so I also dropped in a three pack of butane lighters and a one quart Army Canteen with canteen cup.

Makes me feel much better to have these caches in place. This new cache, which I am calling my August Cache, is at a different location than than the February Cache. Actually, I got a little lazy on this one and emplaced just over a little hill about 100 yards of the dirt road leading to my cabin, but it is still at a location that cannot be seen from the cabin in case the cabin is occupied by somebody when I Bug Out to here and have to retrieve the cache surreptitiously (that's mmeans in a sneaky manner).

I also received the case lots that I ordered of (6 #10 cans) of Chili Mac and Scrambled Eggs with Ham from EarthWaveLiving, as well as another #10 vaccumed packed can of Vegi-Max Hierloom Garden Seeds. Not counting other food I have, these EarthWaveLiving cases will provide me at least 60-75 days of meals just by themselves. This order is earmarked as my Urban Survival supply of food and is going to stay at the house (my Urban Survival location) with me to support the time I stay here after a collapse, and, combined with the canned goods in my pantry and stored rice and beans, I think I could last 4 months if I had too. If I add another survivor, like my son or Neomi, then those 4 months will be cut in half.

What a far distance I have traveled since late last year. I got to read read UrbanMan's last post on Hyper-Inflation just before he posted it and it is scary. I have quite a bit of money tied up into real estate, bonds and mutual funds. I am going to have to re-think where I keep that money and be prepared to move it once the indicators are slapping me in the face. The signs don't look good, but I still have hope that a economic disaster can be averted.

Reading Urban Man's posts on Intelligence for Survival situations, I have introduced myself to several previously un-met neighbors and wrote those people's names on my neighborhood map that I made using a National Geographic Topo mapping program. I gave some of my squash that I had grown away to an old couple and to an older women living alone, as an introduction and to start building rapport,...plus to get rid of excess squash!. When I visited these people nothing gave me the indication that they were prepared for a collapse.

That's going to be a hard thing to control, and that is the need or want to help people who can't help themselves. There are also a group of four young college students in one rental house who seemed polite enough and maybe they would be an asset,....maybe not. The interesting thing is that the old retired couple have an above ground pool they keep filled for when their grandkids visit. It could be an emergency water source.

At one the corner houses leading up my dead end street, is another lady in her late 40's or early 50's who works for a bank. She has a old Chevy Suburban next to her car port. Thinking that it may make a better Bug Out Vehicle than my Toyota Rav 3, I asked her if it was for sale. She told me it was her ex-husband's re-building project and doesn't expect to hear from him again but isn't going to sell it as she has no title. So I took that as it doesn't run, but I was looking at with it's four good tires and thought at the right time I could roll into the street and create an barricade when needed. People coming down the street will now have to walk and my house is the last house.

So, I'll continue compiling an Intelligence picture of my neighborhood and the people. I'll make it a point to get to know all the people and their ideas, capabilities, etc. This is my first version of my situation map as UrbanMan calls it.

Lastly I looked at some AR type rifles at a gun store. Just not going to commit to one of those just yet,...hope I don't regret it. For now, my Walther .22 handgun, 12 gauge shotgun and Mosin-Nagant rifle are going to have to do.

You all be safe. And don't be insulted if I hope all this Survival prepping we are all doing is for naught.

Urban Survival Planning - Hyper-Inflation Predicted and Explained

This is part of an article by Gonzalo Lira, entitled "Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like", the entire article can be read at: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-hyperinflation-part-ii-what-it-will-look

My apologies to Gonzalo Lira, but I decided to post only a portion of it as it gets fairly technical and I think UrbanSurvivalSkills.com readers are more interested in the indicators and the effects of Hyperinflation, rather than the technical market reasons.

I argue that Treasury bonds are the New and Improved Toxic Assets. I argue that, if there was a run on Treasuries, the Federal Reserve—in its anti-deflationary zeal, and its efforts to prop up bond market prices—would over-react, and set off a run on commodities. This, I argue, would trigger hyperinflation.

There are two issues that many people have a hard time wrapping their minds around, with regards to a hyperinflationary event. These two issues are an greatly increased money supply, hence deflating it's value, and, a big increase in the price of commodities while equities, real estate and other assets fall:

“Where’s all the dough gonna come from?” After all, as we know from our history books, hyperinflation involves people hoisting bundles and bundles of high-denomination bills which aren’t worth a damn, and tossing them into the chimney cause the bundles of cash are cheaper than firewood. If the dollar were to crash, where would all these bundles of $100 bills come from?

The second issue was, Why will commodities rise, while equities, real estate and other assets fall? In other words, if there is an old fashioned run on a currency—in this case, the dollar, the world’s reserve currency—why would people get out of the dollar into commodities only, rather than into equities and real estate and other assets?

Apart from what happened with the Weimar Republic in the 1920’s, advanced Western economies have no experience with hyperinflation. (I actually think that the high inflation that struck the dollar in the 1970’s, and which was successfully choked off by Paul Volcker, was in fact an incipient bout of commodity-driven hyperinflation—but that’s for some other time.) Though there were plenty of hyperinflationary events in the XIX century and before, after the Weimar experience, the advanced economies learned their lesson—and learned it so well, in fact, that it’s been forgotten.

During the period 1970–’73, Chile experienced hyperinflation, brought about by the failed and corrupt policies of Salvador Allende and his Popular Unity Government. Though I was too young to experience it first hand, my family and some of my older friends have vivid memories of the Allende period—vivid memories that are actually closer to nightmares.

The causes of Chile’s hyperinflation forty years ago were vastly different from what I believe will cause American hyperinflation now. But a slight detour through this history is useful to our current predicament.

To begin: In 1970, Salvador Allende was elected president by roughly a third of the population. His (Allende’s) election was a fluke.

He wasn’t a centrist, no matter what the current hagiography might claim: Allende was a hard-core Socialist who took over the administration of the country, and quickly implemented several “reforms”, which were designed to “put Chile on the road to Socialism”.

Land was expropriated—often by force—and given to the workers. Companies and mines were also nationalized, and also given to the workers. Of course, the farms, companies and mines which were stripped from their owners weren’t inefficient or ineptly run—on the contrary, Allende and his Unidad Popular thugs stole farms, companies and mines from precisely the “blood-thirsty Capitalists” who best treated their workers, and who were the most fair towards them.

One of the key policy initiative Allende carried out was wage and price controls. In order to appease and co-opt the workers, Allende’s regime simultaneously froze prices of basic goods and services, and augmented wages by decree.

At first, this measure worked like a charm: Workers had more money, but goods and services still had the same old low prices. So workers were happy with Allende: They went on a shopping spree—and rapidly emptied stores and warehouses of consumer goods and basic products. Allende and the UP Government then claimed it was right-wing, anti-Revolutionary “acaparadores”—hoarders—who were keeping consumer goods from the workers. Right.

Meanwhile, private companies—forced to raise worker wages while maintaining their same price structures—quickly went bankrupt: So then, of course, they were taken over by the Allende government, “in the name of the people”. Key industries were put on the State dole, as it were, and made to continue their operations at a loss, so as to satisfy internal demand. If there was a cash shortfall, the Allende government would simply print more escudos and give them to the now State-controlled companies, which would then pay the workers.

This is how hyperinflation started in Chile. Workers had plenty of cash in hand—but it was useless, because there were no goods to buy.

So Allende’s government quickly instituted the Juntas de Abastecimiento y Control de Precios (“Unions of Supply and Price Controls”, known as JAP). These were locally formed boards, composed of loyal Party members, who decided who in a given neighborhood received consumer products, and who did not. Naturally, other UP-loyalists had preference—these Allende backers received ration cards, with which to buy consumer goods and basic staples.

Of course, those people perceived as “unfriendly” to Allende and the UP Government either received insufficient rations for their families, or no rations at all, if they were vocally opposed to the Allende regime and its policies.

Very quickly, a black market in goods and staples arose. At first, these black markets accepted escudos. But with each passing month, more and more escudos were printed into circulation by the Allende government, until by late ’72, black marketeers were no longer accepting escudos. Their mantra became, “Sólo dólares”: Only dollars.

Hyperinflation had arrived in Chile. One of the effects of Chile’s hyperinflation was the collapse in asset prices.

This would seem counterintuitive. After all, if the prices of consumer goods and basic staples are rising in a hyperinflationary environment, then asset prices should rise as well—right? Equities should rise in price—since more money is chasing after the same number of stock. Real estate prices should rise also—and for the same reason. Right?

Actually, wrong—and for a simple reason: Once basic necessities are unmet, and remain unmet for a sustained period of time, any asset will be willingly and instantly sacrificed, in order to meet that basic need.

To put it in simple terms: If you were dying of thirst in the middle of the desert, would you give up your family heirloom diamonds, in exchange for a gallon of water? The answer is obvious—yes. You would sacrifice anything and everyting—instantly—in order to meet your basic needs, or those of your family.

So as the situation in Chile deteriorated in ’72 and into ’73, the stock market collapsed, the housing market collapsed—everything collapsed, as people either cashed out of their assets in order to buy basic goods and staples on the black market, or cashed out so as to leave the country altogether. No asset class was safe, from this sell-off—it was across-the-board, and total.

Now let’s return to the possibility of hyperinflation in the United States:

If there were a sudden collapse in the Treasury bond market, I argued that sellers would take their cash and put them into commodities. My reasoning was, they would seek a sure store of value. If Treasury bonds ceased to be that store of value, then people would invest in the next best thing, which would be commodities, especially precious and industrial metals, as well as oil—in other words, non-perishable commodities.

Some people argued this point with me. They argued many different approaches to the problem, but essentially, it all boiled down to the argument that commodities and precious metals have no intrinsic value.

Actually, I think they’re right. In a strict sense, only oxygen, food and water have intrinsic value to human beings—everything else is superfluous. Therefore the value of everything else is arbitrary.

Yet both gold and silver have, historically, been considered valuable. Setting aside a theoretical or mathematical construct that would justify the value of gold and silver, look at it from a practical standpoint: If I went to a farmer with five ounces of silver, would he give me a sack of grain? Probably. If I offered him an ounce of gold for two or three pigs, would he give them to me? Again, probably.

Where there is a human society, there is a need to exchange. Where there is a need to exchange, a medium of exchange will soon appear. Gold and silver (and copper and brass and other metals) have served that purpose for literally millennia, but then they were replaced by paper.

Right now, there are two forms of paper currency: Actual dollars, and Treasury bonds. One is a medium of exchange, the other a store of value.

If Treasuries—the store of value—were to collapse in price, people in a Treasury panic would buy commodities. This ballooning of non-perishable commodities would be as a means to store value. Because that’s what people do in a panic—they batten down the hatches, and go into what’s safest. And this rush to commodities, I argued, would trigger hyperinflation.

Now, I said I would answer two questions—one was why commodities would outpace all other asset classes in a Treasury panic and subsequent hyperinflation. The other question was, “Where’s all the dough to feed my fireplace gonna come from, in a hyperinflationary event?”

The first wave of dollars in a hyperinflationary event will come from people’s savings accounts.

If Treasuries tank, and the markets all barrel into commodities, then prices will rise for regular consumers—this should not be a controversial inference. What would consumers do, with suddenly much higher gas prices, and soon much higher food prices? Simple: They’ll bust open their piggy banks, whatsoever those piggy banks might happen to be: 401(k)s, whatever equities they might have, etc.

But if the higher consumer prices continue—or become worse—what will happen to the 320 million American consumers? They’ll start buying more gas now, rather than wait around for tomorrow—and the market will react to this. How? Two way: Prices of commodities will rise even further—and asset prices will fall even lower.

If American consumers are getting hit at the gas station and the supermarket, they’ll start selling everything so as to buy gas, heating oil (most especially) and foodstuffs. The Treasury panic will thus be transfered to the average consumer—from Wall Street to Main Street by way of $15 a gallon gas prices, and $10 a gallon heating oil prices.

All other consumer prices would soon follow the leads of gas, heating oil and food.

Would there be Federal government intervention of some sort? Most definitely—people would be screaming for it. Would food rationing be implemented? Probably, and probably by way of the current Food Stamps program. Troops on the streets, protecting gas stations and supermarkets? Curfews to prevent looting? Palliative dollar printing? Yes, yes, and very likely yes.

That last bit—palliative dollar-printing: That’s the key. When palliative dollar-printing happens, it will be the final stages of hyperinflation—it’s when sensible people ought to realize that the crisis is almost over, and that a new normal will soon appear. But this stage will be f@#$*^ awful.

Palliative dollar printing will take place when the Federal government simply runs out of options. The whole boatload of fools in Washington, on seeing this terrible commodity-driven crisis unfold, with consumer prices shooting the moon, will scream for dollars to be printed—and their rationale will be perfectly reasonable, I can practically hear it now: “We've got to get cash into the hands of the average American citizen, so he or she can buy food and heating oil for their families! We can’t let Americans starve and freeze to death!”

Now, this fairly Apocalyptic scenario is simply horrifying.

If Treasuries tank and commodities shoot up so high that they essentially break the dollar, civilization will not come crashing down into anarchy. At worst, there’ll be a three-four years of hell—economic hell. Financial hell. But then things will settle down into a new normal.

This new normal might well have unsavory characteristics. I tend to be a pessimist, and just glancing through history, I can see that just about every period of hyperinflation has been stabilized by some subsequent form of autocratic or totalitarian government. The United States currently has all the legal decisions and practical devices to quickly transition into an authoritarian or totalitarian regime, should a crisis befall the nation: The so-called PATRIOT Acts, the Department of Homeland Security Agency, the practical suspension of habeas corpus, etc., etc.

But as I said in my previous post, and reiterate here: Speculations about the new normal are pointless at this time. The future will happen soon enough.

What I do know is, One, a hyperinflationary event will happen, following the crash in Treasuries. Two, commodities will be the go-to medium for value storage. Three, all asset classes will collapse in short order. And Four—and most importantly—civil society will not collapse along with the dollar. Civil society will stumble about like a drunken sailor, but eventually right itself and carry on with a new normal.

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com disagrees somewhat with Lira,...there is a good possibility that the "new normal" won't happen, and if it does, it may take much longer than a few years.

Urban Survival Planning - Intelligence Prep 301: Electronic Intelligence Collection Devices Part I

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com is continuing on with Intelligence support for Survival. Previously I have talked about general Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield and how it applies to Urban Survival; debriefing your own patrols; interviewing refugees and other people for intelligence information; and developing Situation Maps to maintain your intelligence perspective and situational awareness.

This post is Part I on using electronic devices to augment your intelligence collection. In my mind the two most effective electronic devices that are easy to use and can bring good intelligence and information benefits to your Survival Group in order to develop your situational awareness are Radio Scanners and Game Cameras. In this post, Electronic Intelligence Devices Part I, we will focus on Game Cameras.

Game Cameras are simply a combination of motion detector and digital camera. Which detect motion and will snap a photograph, a series of photographs or even a short video of the movement that triggered the motion detector.

Game Cameras can send pictures to a cell phone via wireless connectvity, or send the image or video to a computer terminal with a wirless radio signal. However these models of game cameras are fairly expensive.

I'm going to focus on Game Cameras less than or around $100, within the budget of most Survival Planners and Preppers. With these economy Game Cameras you will get the same range, pixel resolution however the images have to be downloaded from the cameras either using a USB cable or swithcing out SD Cards.

Not necessarily useful for monitoring six lane roads as the extended range required would be near the outer limits of the game camera, unless you used one camera on each side of the road, still these game cameras would certainly work on natural lines of drift, county roads, suburban streets or anyplace else you need electronic intelligence and surveillance devices to determine ectent of traffic...especially the two legged kind.

The series of segments depicted in the strung together videos below were taken with a game camera set up along the Arizona Border showing illegal aliens and drug smugglers - notice the burlap wrapped bundles of marijuana fashioned into back packs. This will give you an idea of the auaity of video these game cametras are capable of....as well as probable piss you off.



Moultrie D-40 Game Camera

With an infrared motion sensor with a range of 30 feet and 22 degrees, the camera delivers clear footage of moving game, day or night, with multiple operational modes. With an average battery life of 60 days, the Moultrie Game Spy D-40 gives you the ability to spy out the game even when you're away for days at a time. Adjustable elastic mounting cords make it easy to mount the camera in trees or other stationary locations. The camera responds rapidly with FDA Class 2 laser aiming and a passive infrared sensor that activates as soon as motion is detected. Pictures are clear and easy to read in full color day and night, with 4 megapixel images that can be shot in low, medium, or high resolution.

Auto mode activates the motion sensor, allowing you to leave the camera alone to capture images while you are not present. In automatic mode you have the ability to capture still images day and night with or without flash operation, 10-second AVI clips-video images during the daytime that will automatically switch to still photos with the flash in low light situations, and capture multi-shot images of up three shots. The camera is also equipped with a handheld-removable manual operation, and a setup mode that allows you to customize menu settings. The electronic flash can be set to automatic or in off-security mode. The flash range is from five to 45 feet.

Designed for multi-day, automatic use, the Game Spy D-40 has a built in memory of 16 MB of video and picture storage. Up to four GB of additional SD memory can be added. The camera images can be accessed via the 2-inch LCD display or output to a TV or a computer via USB. Imprints time, date and camera ID on every photo or video The camera imprints still and video images with date, time, and camera ID so that you always know exactly when the stand is active. Has an weather-resistant, airtight camera housing.

Moultrie D-55 Game Camera

Billed as high-end scouting equipment on a budget. Moultrie 's Game Spy D-55 flash scouting camera gives you a feature-rich game camera at an affordable price. Loaded with features including 5.0 megapixels, camouflage housing and much more. Possess rapid response time; a 50-ft flash; Infrared (IR) sensor for immediate game capture; Temperature, moon phase, time, date and camera ID on every photo; Color day and night pictures; Video clips during the day (5/15/30 seconds); Display showing battery life remaining, pictures taken and remaining, and delay timer; IR aim for quick and precise camera setup; Picture delay, set 1-60 minutes; Multi-shot pictures (up to 3 shots) with 5 seconds between multi-shots; Three picture resolutions to choose from; Two video resolutions; SD Memory Card Slot – up to 16GB; Includes weather-resistant casing, USB cable and mounting strap; External power port for optional Moultrie PowerPanel; Operates on 6 C-cell batteries.




Powering Game Cameras

You will have to have to ability to re-charge batteries or re-configure power supply to the game camera. Having the ability to recharge the larger D and C batteries wuld be important. Given the battery life on these Game Cameras, a modest supply of re-chargeable batteries would be needed. Please visit All-Battery.com for rechargers and rechargeable batteries options.