Answering Reader Comments on Economic Collapse Indicators

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a couple quick comments about how local government bankruptcy are an indicator of a pending collapse.

Anonymous 1 said...Stop with the peyote! I was with you until now...and...Anonymous 2 said...How does these cities going bankrupt plunge us into a collapse?

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com does not believe that simply one or more local governments going bankrupt, or, a number of either government employee unions or commercial unions defaulting on their pension responsibilities will plunge us into anarchy or an economic collapse.

It is a combination of events and a chain reaction that may very well push us head down into a gradual economic collapse. One of the dangers of a gradual economic collapse is that it could pickup speed and very quickly over whelm us.

I friend of mine sent me an e-mail telling me his County, located on the Mexican border, has to cut $15 million from it's budget. This County has a population of 1.1 million spread out over 1,200 square miles. The proposal on the table is for the County Sheriffs Office to cut or lay off 65 patrol deputies from it's ciurrent staff of 270. This of course is occuring all across the country as local governments try to balance budgets and make payroll. Sure the County saves money, but who pays for the unemployment benefits of laid off patrol deputies? We're not even talking about the problems with a greatly reduced patrol and response capability and what that means to an increase in crime. What about City or County's going bankrupt and cannot meet payroll for utility workers? City or County Hospitals?

Same for other programs like the food stamp and other welfare programs. The Government is just going to run out of credit, as the deficit is 4 times larger than it has ever been in our history. No country has ever rebounded from such a economic condition. Manufacturing continues to go "off shore" reducing our self sufficency as a Country. Add increased taxes after the Bush tax cuts expire which will not only restrict the growth of business and jobs, and there is just no basis for solid hope that our economy will rebound, but there is plenty of analysis that we will go into a super recession and another great depression.

Some analysts call this the destruction of the American middle class. And the danger here is that without a middle class, this country will have only the "haves" and the "have nots", with the have not's out numbering the haves by a 20 to 1 ratio. With unemployment currently at 18 to 19% , counting the people who claim unemployment insurance and are theroretically looking for work and the people who have given up looking for work, and the annual in-coming influx of high school students not being able to find jobs, all indicate a large group of disaffected people who have grown up in an entitlement society. What would you think about a concentrated population group living nearby you who are without food, can't pay for utilities and are mad about the government not being able to take care of them? I think that's a powder keg.

Once the Obama Administration is successful in pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan, mark my words, you'll see a reduction in the Military, both uniformed service members and civil service positions - it has happened after every war. This will add to the burden as there won;t be jobs for all the service members and civil service looking for work.

The stage is set for a great depression. This one will be much worse with the sheer numbers and population density of desperate people. So the point of the articles on economic factors is that 1 - this is not only possible but probable and therefore a scenario in which Survival Planners and Preppers need to prepare for, and 2- an gradual economic collapse is much more likely than a nuclear strike, panademic disease spread or whatever a person's greatest fear is.

Urban Survival Planning - Another Economic Factor Indicating a Collapse

The "solar storms" emanuating from the planet Mars, or was it coming from Klingon space ships?,..like some people are yodeling about this week, is a much less threat to us than a likely economic collapse caused by giant debt at all levels of government. Look at what it did to Greece.

Municipalities are declaring bankruptcy attemting to change the impact of Union pensions which are bankrupting them. A recent report outlined the massive deficit in Union pensions in Oakland, Newark, Philadelphia and Chicago. Kinda of poetic justice since corrupt, or at least inept local governments at these locations have partered with the Unions for years for political contributions, voter registration drives and even voter intimidation campaigns.

Many locations are not only mandating un-paid furloughs for city, county and state workers, but some of these government workers are emergency providers. If you are reading this site you probably have come to the conclusions that your first line of crime prevention is yourself and your gun, but it is troubling that at all levels of government we are seeing a great financial crisis.

This could easily manifest itself into a major and/or long term recession or even a depression. Tax rates have to rise, as unemployment will. What will happen when tens of thousands of unemployed workers, especially in large urban centers, cannot be taken care of by the Government?

This is the basic scenario outlined in the series "American Apocalypse", and represents a very likely happening that will threaten our security and our survival.

Urban Survival Planning - Reader Question: People at Your Door, Post Collapse

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comment on a post about Emergency Planning,...."Leon said,..... Good info! How about a story on dealing with the people who will come to your door, essentially begging, because they have made no preparations at all?"

UrbanMan replies: Leon, if you have that answer please share it with the rest of us as that is a question we may all have ideas on, but none of us really know what we will do. It's kind of like combat,...you hope you'll react in a certain manner, but don't know until people are shooting at you.

I hope to use good judgement assessing people,....using my 34 years of experience in interacting with indigenous people in third world countries and with law breakers. I hope to have a kind heart as well, extending what help I can, when I can. I have to balance that with not putting an undue burden on my family or place the overall Survival Group at risk.

Another consideration is the peace within your Survival Group. If helping people means putting people in the Survival Group at odds with each other, then you certainly have to consider that. I can see it now where some people may say "If you want to give those stragglers a day's ration, a butane lighter, and a blanket, then go ahead but that's coming out of your stocks,...not mine."

You'll have to have a chain of command or decision making process within your Group. I am the primary decision authority in my Group, but will take the advice of all in my Group. You need to establish this in order to exist and function, working as a team.

I think we are on this earth to evolve as humans,..but to also survive as a species. Sometimes that may mean moving people along. Sometimes that may mean helping people. If I moved people along, I would be prone to tell them "The next time I see them on my street (urban location) or at my gate (my rural safe location), then I'll have to assume that you mean us harm and I will take pre-emptive, lethal action - do I make myself clear?"

Safeguard information as well (OPSEC), do not be discussing your six months of food or whatever in front of people. Next thing you know they band together with 30 mutts and are at your door.

Having said all that, I'll hope to provide alittle bit to anyone who needs it. I would be interviewing people during this process and make a determination if they would be an assets to our Survival Group. If I took them into our Group, I would have had to make "probationary" arrangements to include having someone from the main group watch them all the time. You would have to err on the side of caution and expell anyone who threatened the Group. When you do this, you are going to create an enemy, and an enemy that has inside information on your set up to include weaknesses.

I know this doesn't answer your question very well, but ask me again, six months post collapse and I may have some operational history from which to draw better conclusions.

Urban Survival - Prioritized Procurement on a Small Budget

UrbanSurvivalSkill.com received the following comment through e-mail:…. "Urbanman,....I remember reading a post comment on your urban skills site that someone left saying they only have $30 left over at the end of the month to purchase survival stuff. Can you reply to this?"


UrbanMan replies: First thing I would do is to compile of list of all your Survival assets. This would include, but not be limited to: Camping Equipment, stored food, firearms, tools, skill sets. Then consider what the threats are to you and your family. This may include utilities shut off, shortage of food, lack of transportation, physical threats from criminal groups or even just from bands of starving - desperate people.

You need to have Bug Out Plan on where you will go to be safer. This may be in fact, several locations. Even if you plan on Buggin In or staying in place, you still need to have a Bug Out plan. The reasons for this, is that it will affect your Survival Gear, Equipment and Supplies (food, etc.) procurement plan.

One common piece of advice for low order procurement,…spending minimal funds on a periodic procurement plan,…is to say, but $5 to $7 of rice/beans one week, then buy $5 to $7 of powdered milk the next,…and so on. The problem with this, although it is a planned and scheduled procurement, is that if the collapse hits somewhere during your procurement process, there will be somethings you will be missing.

I suggest that after you figure out what you current have in Survival Equipment and Material, then you make a list and prioritize that list. If you have to save 3 or 4 weeks to make a purchase, then so be it.

My priorities for just starting out would be firearms for protection and food. Water has to be extremely high on the list as you can’t live without it for more than a couple days. Completion of Bug Out Bags with the necessary equipment and material to get you from your present location to your safe location would be a priority as well.

If you had firearms for protection and Survival Bug Out Bags completed to support a withdrawal from your present home/location to your safe location, then the next hole to fill would probably be sufficient food/water stocks to survive a collapse (gradual or sudden) at your present location and/or to cache at your intended safe location. Having a sufficient supply of food and water at your home gives you more time to make a decision to Bug Out. The trick will be to make a timely decision and not stay too long. – See the Armageddon Videos at the top left side of this page.

On a small budget you can procure food stocks fairly easily. Rice, beans, boullion cubes, powdered milk, canned fruit, peanut butter, instant potatoes, oatmeal, nuts would all be high on my list. Salt, Sugar, Brown sugar are important as well, but maybe not as important than the actual foods. $5 a week is pretty minimal as it may only buy about 10 lbs of rice or 8 lbs of beans. One of the things a family I know did to prep was to save their pocket change and after six months they had almost $200 converted at the bank to paper money which they in turn spent at Wal-Mart for food supplies.

I hesitate providing a list of what you need to buy, since you need to do a Survival Equipment and Material survey of what you have, then develop your Survival plan including a Bug Out plan in order to determine what else you need. Good Luck.