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Saturday, September 21, 2013

Warning from Bob Rinear

Warning from Bob Rinear Robert "Bob" Rinear is a noteworthly financial advisor Robert "Bob" Rinear, who is a noteworthly financial advisor, wrote an article basically making the case for the artificial growth of the stock market due to Bernanke's FED pushing $85 billion a month into the money supply. This last week Rinear was cautioning us that on September 18th, 2013 Bernanke would make a decision on continuing or tapering Quanitive Easing (QE) which could be the long awaited taper of worthless fiat curency being floated into the market.

Rinear's supposition, in part from bogus Governmental reports that the economy was building strength, as that the larger a QE taper, the larger a stock market drop. The stronger the economy, the less need for QE. But at some point in time QE has to taper or stop. When it does there will be hell to pay on the stock market. Stocks and bonds and therefore our pensions plans invested in these will devalue. How much will they devalue would be dependent upon just how far the market drops.

Some of you saying "what the hell dude,.....the stock market has nothing to do with the economy any more. Wall Street is a fraud and just manipulates false values and people's emotions." Well, you won't get an argument from me. But the stock market crashing or tanking significantly will have an impact on our lifes. It could be the catalyst for the long awaited economic collapse that places 100 million of our fellow citizens looking for food and shelter on a day by day basis ( 1 in 7 Americans are living in poverty right now). It also just may not be so bad,...... it may eliminate the middle class,...making us all part of the lower class, making life hard, but liveable.

And Rinear isn't the only one forecasting a market fall. Gina Martin Adams who happens to be a Wells Fargo strategist, watched the S&P 500 add 21 percent. And on this past Thursday's, a day after the FED's announcment to continue pumping money into the system, Adams reiterated her call that the index would close out the by dropping 16 percent erasing all gains this years.

We are indeed in interesting times.

Now the warning from Rinear.

Did you notice Poland just did? At first I thought it was a bad joke, one of the internet rumors gone wild. But it isn’t. Basically they just announced that they were confiscating 50% of all PRIVATE pensions. Did you read that?

Remember Cyprus and the idea of a “bail in” where deposit money will be used to support failed banks? Well Poland is taking it a step further.

Poland has a “debt ceiling” that prevents it from issuing debt over 55% of GDP. Well they were dangerously flirting with breaking that rule in a big way. By confiscating and stealing (“nationalizing”) the Polish citizens’ private pension money, they are now booking that money as a straight-up cash asset on the government’s balance sheet, thus “freeing up room” against the GDP-to-debt threshold so that the Polish government can … issue more debt and spend even more.

When you see banks laying out rules for “bail in’s” and see Governments looking at private pensions as their own little piggy banks, it certainly brings me back to an article I wrote for you all way back in 2011. I suggested that at “some point” Uncle Sam is going to look at the 10 trillion in 401K’s and IRA’s and the almost 10 trillion in annuities and private pensions and “take it”. Hey, look at it like a crooked politician for a minute.

Here’s 20 trillion dollars just “sitting” in accounts. Why not take it, use the money to do stupid things, replace the holdings with Government issuance like bonds, and keep partying like it’s 1999? Poland just saw that light.

The US will do that if necessary and frankly it’s necessary now. So far they’ve danced around the issues, used Fed money, etc, but this won’t last for ever. So while a taper out of the Fed might beat gold and silver down some, I will indeed buy the dip. What is safer, ten boxes of gold coins or some digital receipt that says I have 100K in a 401K at some mutual fund outfit? You know the answer. If Uncle sam wants my physical, he’s going to have a pretty hard time getting it. If he wants my 401K my only defense is a phone call. No thanks.

So Rinear is telling us the possiblity of us losing all our externally stored wealth,....in my case it's just savings...but mnore important is how would migitate the coming effects that an easing of, or a complete stopping of QE would have on the market and therefore our wealth and possible government confiscation of existing wealth in order to keep the government afloat, albeit for a short time? Wow! That's a complication question but he answer is simple but not necessarily easy to execute. The way we mitigate financial market collapse and the requisite economic chaos is through proper management of the Survivalist's Portfolio,........a portfolio that does not relay on diverse holdings between bonds,stocks, mutual funds and 401K plans, but instead ensures that we have enough commodites on hand and physically held such as cash, gold, silver, firearms, ammunition, stored foods, ability to grow food - stored seeds, and the equipment and material we'll need to see us through hard times.

4 comments:

  1. There are a lot of factors that create a boom or a bust. One of these factors is confidence or investor sentiment or consumer confidence, etc. Call it what you will but today our economy is in the dumper and arguably we are in another great depression. Some will argue the real unemployment rate is well above the official unemployment rate perhaps 23%. The long food lines that marked the great depression of the 30's has been replaced by the Electronic Benefits card and SNAP. What we have is a phony economy that the media refuses to report on accurately and the fed keeps borrowing and printing money to prop up and the Democrat political machine keeps lying about. The ONLY positive indicator is the stock market. But the stock market is not strong in spite of the great numbers. What is happening is there is few safe places for investors to place their money and even fewer that offer any return on their investment. For now the stock market is the only game in town. It literally depends on one thing to keep it buoyed up and that is QE. When QE ends the stock market will crash and literally trillions of dollars in investors money will disappear overnight. Most of the savvy investors have gotten out of the market and many who are still in it are moving towards quality or slowly divesting. This is like musical chairs and soon the music will stop. My best guess is QE will end or be dramatically tapered after the 2014 elections (especially if the Republicans win so they can share the blame). It could end sooner especially if some major economic event occurs. Time is running out.

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