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Friday, October 19, 2012

7 Day Warning to SHTF

"Hey Urbanman, saw a conversation in a forum about what would you do if you had 7 days notice until SHTF. I'd like to hear from you about what you would do in this situation. To be sure, I don't believe I need seven days and I ain't thinking I'm going to be getting it. Prepare Well, Fight Hard. Frankster."

UrbanMan replies: Frankster, to be frank (I had to make that pun) seven days notice would be great. I routinely look at a wide variety of sources, from financial to political, to develop any sense of an impending collapse. A lot can happen in seven days and I don't expect anyone to be able to predict the collapse in a coming seven days.

I do think that one can analyze threat streams and conclude that the near term collapse is very likely,......whether it takes 2 day or 60 days. Therefore, once I think that SHTF is imminent there are some things, in a list of priorities, that I would try and do hoping to get them all accomplished before the time to hunker down and wait it out.

These are my priorities. The rest of my team's priorities may be a little different since our concept and agreement is that we would consolidate at my place (primary) and another's location (alternate) – these are our initial safe Bug In Locations. So some of my team's priorities would be the start moving additional items to my place.

My priorities: I am listing these priorities using a numbering system and the same numbers to indicate what I think I can do simultaneously.

1. Withdrawal of my bank accounts to maximize the use of fiat currency until that is no longer accepted. I think we'll see cash purchases still accepted but at extremely high mark ups. As I start seeing more critical indicators, I would start keeping more cash on hand. Banks can be ordered to close and ATM’s machines can cease to work.

1. Fill up all empty fuel cans,....using credit cards, fiat currency, barter items, then silver in that order. While I am filling up last remaining fuel containers, procure extra filled propane canisters as well. I can use them for many things among them cooking, heating and barter.

1. Fill up all my empty water containers – 5 gallon cans, bathtub bobs and 55 gallon drums.

Note: While I always have some stored water and fuel, both will eventually go bad if stored forever, so I only maintain a minimal amount. Timing is important to getting maximum life out of your stocks.

As I write this I made myself aware that what I don't have is an extra oil change set with motor oil and filters and an new air cleaner. I'll rectify this in the next two weeks, so this will be off my list. May as well pickup an additional bottle of chain oil for the chain saws, although I have two extra chains - one new, one used.

2. I make a lumber run picking up some plywood and 2x4x8's because they'll come in handy. If the crash is truly imminent, then my credit cards or cash ain't going to worth very much soon, may as well turn it into something useful. 2. I'll buy as much canned and boxed food as I can, using the same modes of payment as above. In fact, all my last minute pre-SHTF purchases will be on this model: credit, cash, barter then silver. Although I will not put myself at risk going to people packed grocery stores. At this time with the collapse imminent, the two person rule will be in effect and if some of my team consolidates at my place, we'll start to implement a 24 hour cycle of security.

I won't need to visit any of the sporting goods or gun shops. I am pretty well set on survival firearms, ammunition, camping gear and miscellaneous items. Maybe a stop at the local Dollar store to buy socks, t-shirts, sweat shirts, and miscellaneous first aid item but only if these stores are not a mad house of humanity.

The bottom line is that once the collapse is occurring or it is evident to the massed population of TEOTWAKI, the safest place to be is hunkered down at your Bug Out location.  Make each and every venture outside of this safety in a cold, sober manner and only execute if it is absolutely necessary.  


  1. It's quite possible that we would have 7 days warning (or 3 days or a month). But what is missing from that is that it is likely that most people will not recognize the warning immediately. They may recognize it in a few hours or a full day from the news or report that warns us. Getting to the store (or where ever) in the first minutes after notice may be critical. So while you may have 7 days warning it is likely you will have less then 12 hours of time to act before panic sets in.

  2. I don't believe "hoarding and stockpiling" are advantageous. It gives you a fixed position, which you must defend. I believe the better path is get as far away from urban areas as possible. Go where you know there's water. Where there is water there are animals. Get a field guide of Edible Plants of North America. Learn to use a bow. Chainsaws, cooking fires, and gunfire will draw unwanted attention eventually.

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