Survival Preparation - Peak Oil - Collapse Catalyst

Chris Martenson article from 27 May
Peak Oil - Why Time is Now Short
ChrisMartenson.com

The Next Oil Shock

The only thing that could prevent another oil shock from happening before the end of 2012 would be another major economic contraction. The emerging oil data continues to tell a tale of ever-tightening supplies that will soon be exceeded by rising global demand. This time, we will not be able to blame speculators for the steep prices we experience; instead, we will have nothing to blame but geology.

Back in 2009, I wrote a pair of reports in which I calculated that we’d see another price spike in oil by 2010 or 2011, based on some assumptions about global GDP growth rates, rates of decline in existing oil fields, and new projects set to come online. Given the recent price spike in oil (Brent crude over $126, now at $115) and recent oil supply data, those predictions turned out to be quite solid (for reference, oil was trading in the low $60s at the time).

One part I whiffed on was in my prediction that the world community would have embraced the idea of Peak Oil by now and begun adjusting accordingly, but that’s not really true except in a few cases (e.g. Sweden). Perhaps things are being differently and more seriously considered behind closed doors, but out in public the dominant story line concerns reinvigorating consumer demand, not a looming liquid fuel crisis.

At any rate, with Brent crude oil having lofted over $100/bbl at the beginning of February 2011 and remained above that for four months now, we are already in the middle of a price shock.

Looking at the new data I am now ready to move my ‘Peak Oil is a statistically unavoidable fact’ event to sometime in 2012, which tightens my prediction from the prior range of 2012-2013.

The next shock will drive oil to new heights that are currently unimaginable for most. First, $200/bbl will be breached, then $300, and then more. And these are in current dollar terms; any additional dollar weakness will simply be additive to the actual quoted price. By this I mean that if oil were to trade at $200 but the dollar lost one half of its value along the way, then oil would be priced at $400.

In 2009, I wrote a special report on oil that explored the interplay between energy and the economy. At that time, the stock market was in the tank, global growth was in a freefall, and things looked gloomy. (And in regards to the masive Federal Stimulus)....these trillions and trillions of dollars, which, along with (borrowed) foreign equivalents (money), are being applied to “ease the credit crunch,” will eventually find their mark and deliver what feels like a legitimate rebound in activity. (Don't be fooled into complacency with mediocre short term stats that indicate a economic recovery).

For now, debts are defaulting faster than the various central banks and governments can inject new money and borrowing activity into the system. Banks aren’t lending because there are very few compelling loans to make, especially if future losses have to actually be carried by the bank making the loan.

But this won’t be true forever. Sooner or later, all the trillions of new dollars will trot out of the barn, begin to gallop, and then thunder off, creating the appearance of a healthy economy. (But) it will be a cruel illusion. Money is only one component of growth. As we’ve strenuously proposed, energy is a necessary prerequisite for growth.

Housing remains in a serious slump, wage-based income growth is poor, Europe remains mired in a serious debt crisis, Japan has slumped back into recession, and the US fiscal deficit is a structural nightmare. Worse, GDP growth is relatively tepid and would be negative, deeply negative, without all the deficit spending and liquidity measures.

We are driving at a high rate of speed into a box canyon,.....Peak Oil is only one of many factors.

Urban Survival Planning - Hyper-Inflation will precede the Collapse

A buddy of mine sent me this video from the National Inflation Association with the theory that our Government isn't stupid. He justified this by stating all the things are government has done to stave off economic disasters,....cash for clunkers, bailout of Fannie Mae and Fredie Max,...Stimlus I and II,....the bailout of AIG,.....nationalizing half of the automotive industry,.....passing Obamacare,...trying to pass Cap and Trade,....extending unemployment benefits (twice actually),....and the list goes on,...are not things a rational government does,..UNLESS they are very scared of the future economic viability of this Country, and indeed the viability of this Country as a country.

He sees it as a time buying plan and/or a plan to orient the historical record to efforts made and not results. He sees the end as a economic collapse of this Country preceded by hyper-inflation. He forecasts two scenarios a rapid collapse the speed of which as never been seen before, or less probable, a gradual collapse that will plunge this country into anarchy which will results in the Government suspended the Constitution in an effort, doomed to failure, to control the chaos.



God, I hope not, but I don't see any way out of it. His prediction mirrors that of Gonzalo Lira, although he said he has heard of Lira but not read any of his writings. But I see the writing and it is on the proverbial wall....Get prepared, have a plan and do it now.

Urban Survival - What the Beginning of the Collapse May Look Like

How much stockage do you think your local grocery store has on hand? How about the distribution centers which bring it to the retail locations? How much food, canned goods, dry matter, etc., do you think they have on average? Do you know where these distribution centers are? I'll bet there are many people who do know.

Most stores are constantly receiving shipments in order to have an on-hand stockage for their buying public. What do you think will happen if and when food supply deliveries become sporadic? The video below shows an almost riot situation at Wal-Mart on Black Friday when Holiday shopping traditionally begins. These people are going crazy over deals. Mobbing the stock boys and not letting the goods get to the shelves before they grab it of the carts.

If this was food and the people where hungry what do you imagine it would look like? If you are reading this site, then you probably are a Survival Prepper and have already wargamed the scenarios involving retail grocery stores and maybe even have a plan to go straight to the disto centers and negotiate with the managers. You know the workers there will be making plans to get their "fair" share, and if/when the food shortage scenario takes effect, food won't be the only commodity in short supply. Be prepared to barter.

If you watched the excellent History channel videos on After Armageddon, which I have posted on the left side of this home page, you notice a scenario where armed gangs rapidly move to control the food distribution centers.

Most of us who are already deep into the Survival Preparation mode, will still venture out to retail stores or other locations in order to procure last minute items that are of a short shelf life nature or to obtain items we may have forgotten. Be prepared to travel to these places on safe routes, have an entry and exit plan for the facility. Be prepared to defend yourself. I can envision gangs outside of some facilities looking to relieve people of their goods as they exit and start to load up their vehicles.

Having a security plan and keeping someone at your vehicle and in fact keeping two people there (two man rule) while another pair entry the facility to shop would be a good idea. Use communication devices, radios or prearranged signals to annotate plans or a contingency plan. You may want to emplace another person or team at an overwatch position to support you as well.

It is probable that in a food shortage situation there will be shooting or other acts of violence by hungry, scared or just predatory people or groups.