Urban Survival Planning - Collapse Forecast by Gonzalo Lira

I have written several times about collapse or crisis indicators and the importance of tracking these for insight into when and how severe a collapse may come, and of what type,.e.g..economic collapse, disease pandemic, etc.

Everyone who wants to be better forewarned and may even want to understand the "whys" and "what fors" associated with a probably economic collapse should add Gonzalo Lira and his blog, http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/, to their tracking list.

Lira is a novelist, filmmaker and economic analyst, sometimes also writing for Business Insider. He is clear of thought and poses his arguments well. Read pieces of what he has to say about his prediction of hyper-inflation:

So to sum up (the indicators of an impending hyper inflationary period and economic collapse), we have these (facts):

• Rising commodity prices, the effects of which (because of hedging) will be felt most severely in the period January–March of 2011.

• A beggar-thy-neighbor race-to-the-bottom Currency War, that might well devolve into a Trade War, which would force up prices on imported goods.

• A Federal Reserve that does not seem to know what it is doing, as regards another round of Quantitative Easing (printing more money deflating it's value), which is making the financial markets very nervous—nervous about the Fed’s ultimate responsibility, which is safeguarding the U.S. dollar.

• A U.S. economy that is weak to the point of collapse, where not even 0.25% interest rates are sparking investment and growth—and which therefore prohibits the Fed from raising interest rates, if need be.

• A U.S. fiscal deficit which is close to 10% of GDP annually, and which is therefore unsustainable—especially considering that the total U.S. fiscal debt is well over 100% of GDP.

These factors all point to one and the same thing: An imminent currency collapse.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:

• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.

• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.

• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.

• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyper-inflationary tipping point of 15%.

After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Lira subsequently wrote two more articles relating to hyper-inflation:

How Hyperinflation Will Happen, Monday Aug 23, 2010

Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like Thursday August 26, 2010

In the video below, Gonzalo Lira explains why severe hyperinflation is coming to the United States before the end of 2011. Lira's family personally experienced hyperinflation decades ago in his native Chile.