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Monday, August 5, 2013

The Cause of the Economic Collapse

We think, talk, plan and prepare a lot on the possibility or probability of some sort of economic or societal collapse. We discuss the indicators and the effects but never really mention the cause. That's probably because in some form or fashion that cause of the collapse will be politicians and our government. Through negligence, apathy, greed, idealogy, or even just plain stupidity the march continues to diminish our standard of living, our freedoms, and all this certainly makes the collapse look much nearer.

Here is another another article, called "Stupid to Tyranny", sent to me by a reader and written by William Horning on Constitutional Thinking. This article begins to lay out the argument,......

“The two aims of the Party are to conquer the whole world and to extinguish once and for all the possibility of independent thought.” George Orwell.

When you are either stupid, uninformed, or not thinking clearly, you don’t realize the time bombs are ticking for our country. Even the tea parties fall into one of these categories.

Professor Steven Yates wrote on America “Ticking Time Bombs” which could take down the country. First time bomb is political correctness, which is taught in the schools and promoted by the media. The government is the real problem, not whites, as it stirs up racial tension. The Zimmerman case was misreported from the start and improperly handled in court.

The second time bomb is Obamacare. “Its purpose … is to centralize sick care, fatten the profits of both Big Pharma and Big Insurance, and very possibly find a legal way of dealing with an aging population that will eventually break the Medicare and Social Security banks.” One researcher figures that the monthly health costs for a family of four will go up anywhere from 2-4 times.

While costs skyrocket, the quality of care will disintegrate. Patients over 70 had better not have anything major happen. Eventually care will be denied as they get an aspirin and a ride home. Cost cutting will demand it.

Our third time bomb is the employment situation. Full time jobs are declining and part time jobs are increasing. John Williams (www.shadowstats.com), a statistician/economist points out that the true unemployment rate is between 23% and 24%. It just isn’t so obvious due to government benefit programs. In addition, underemployment is growing. The outlook for improvement is not very good.

The fourth problem is the financial markets. The stock market is approaching record highs while the national debt approaches $17 trillion. The American people bailed out the banks that are making a killing while our economic health is declining. This situation won’t last.

Please note that all of these problems are created or allowed to happen by government. Our Criminal Congress, along with state legislatures, continues to make laws killing jobs, sovereignty, freedom, and honest government. We no longer have representative government. Our elected crooks only care about the power and rewards of being in office, not the Constitution.

The answer is to replace them with constitutional representatives. Devvy Kidd has written an article, “If You Ignore the Upcoming Primaries, We’re Toast.” I said the same thing months ago. The primaries are where constitutional conservatives can replace established Rhinos/Neocons. Tea Parties need to listen to this warning.

There are only approximately five months to prepare for the primary campaign. Instead of preparing, tea parties are doing stupid things, wasting time listening to current congressmen/state representatives, etc. They should be educating their members on the issues and how to recruit more members.

In 2010, 23 Tea Party Republicans were elected to the U.S. House, but most of them caved in right away voting to raise the debt limit, so candidates need education also. Tea Parties (or similar groups) should be recruiting candidates for every possible office. They should be planning a strategy to put the maximum number of “boots on the ground” and give financial support for the candidates.

I want to suggest that constitutional conservatives brush up on what real pastors believed at the time of the American Revolution. Then, they should get with their pastors and straighten them out. If that’s not possible, get out of that church. The churches are supposed to be leading our revival, but they are silent. Alexis de Tocqueville, searching for the secret to America’s success on his visit, stated that not until he entered the church did he learn, “why America was great and free, and why France was a slave.”

Today, we’re all slaves, because our churches are not engaged or are apostate. While 78% of Americas claim to be Christian, as Bradlee Dean, a preacher and talkshow host states, “effeminate hirelings have infiltrated the pulpits” and instead of preaching against sin, “they are attempting to cover it with false grace.” If we clean up our churches, we could have a strong force behind our push to restore

Friday, August 2, 2013

Green Beret versus Doomsday Prepper

An article posted month back on the Daily Sheeple, written by Sobert Gummer, titled "Why You Should Think Like A Green Beret Instead Of A Doomsday Prepper". Visit his website often as he has some good article posted there.

This was sent to me by a reader who commented that he too believed in his Bug In plan as long as he can, and to work on developing his local suburban neighborhood into a post collapse survival team. Obviously any grouping of people will be much better off with the more work they can put into team building prior to the collapse, but sometimes this is not always viable. Not every neighborhood has a Home Owners Association which is a ready made organization, useful to communications and coordinating efforts. In lieu of an HOA, a neighborhood watch committee would be the next step and a ready made reason to walk the neighborhood and meet the dwellers. Anyway, great article by Sobert Gummer.

There is a disaster coming and you have a decision to make: Is it better to live like a rat in a hole (a bunker) or to network with your neighbors and organize your local area of operation? Sure, it’s a loaded question but it brings up an interesting point: That even the lone wolf can’t survive long by himself. We are social pack animals by nature and the stronger we make our local “pack” the better our chances of survival.

I’d rather have a local neighborhood of 400 organized, motivated individuals defending an area and watching each other’s back than to go it alone in a ten foot corrugated pipe buried in the middle of nowhere. And if we agree on this point, then it makes perfect sense to look at the Green Berets for inspiration.

The Green Berets are the U.S. Special Forces elite commandos who get dropped behind enemy lines and are tasked with organizing the local or indigenous population toward a specific goal. They are smart, motivated and trained in tactics that make them extreme force multipliers. This should be your goal as a prepper, because surviving alone is too big of a job. The days of “Liver Eatin’” Johnson, where a mountain man could live in the back country for years at a time, wasn’t even a high survivability endeavor back in the 1800′s. The odds that one man or even a small family can, “face it alone” are very slim. Sure, you might get lucky and pull it off, but personally I prefer to play the odds. And if we look at history, the odds on survival as part of a community are much greater than going it alone– which is why communities formed in the first place.

In a disaster scenario where there is No Rule Of Law (sidenote: See NutNFancy’s excellent Youtube video on WROL: Without Rule Of Law) there will be a power vacuum. People will be scared and afraid and this is where we as preppers need to be ready to step up and provide leadership. People will only huddle in their homes for so long and if an organizational structure isn’t set up quickly to utilize your neighborhood’s strengths and resources, then you may lose them forever.

First Things First

One of the first things that a Green Beret unit will do when deployed to an area is to set up an operational base in friendly territory that serves as both an operational and administrative focal point. The operational base is used for:

■Planning and Direction of Operations
■Communications Support
■Intelligence Support
■Logistical Support
■Briefing and Staging
■Infiltration
■Liason and Coordination
■Training
■Administration

Can you imagine setting up an operational base similar to what the Green Berets use by organizing your neighbors– perhaps at a local elementary school– and how it could be an asset in helping your community get through a Without Rule Of Law scenario?

Let’s compare two scenarios contrasting how modeling the Green Berets would work out much better for you and your family than modeling the typical character as portrayed on the Doomsday Preppers TV show:

A Tale Of Two Preppers

Timmy The Tool: Timmy has modeled his prepper plans in a similar manner to what he’s seen on the TV shows, including a buried corrugated pipe bunker that he’s stocked with two years worth of food for himself, his wife and his two kids, Timmy Jr. (9) and Susie (4).

Timmy lives in a non-descript suburban neighborhood in Bacon, Georgia. He doesn’t socialize or interact with any of his neighbors and the one’s who have made an effort to get to know him report that he is somewhat anti-social and odd.

When the balloon goes up, Timmy packs his wife and kids into his Chevy Suburban and gets on the road toward their buried bunker in the middle of nowhere. The trip is uneventful and Timmy hides his Suburban under a camouflage net and then ushers his family into the bunker.

Everything seems to be going swell the first night. But after seven days of living underground in a 10 foot by 40 foot bunker the kids won’t stop fighting and Timmy’s wife Helen is starting to show signs of emotional strain from being cooped up for so long without outside social interaction.

By Week 2 the radio stops working and Timmy can’t find where he put the backup radio. He’s now got a short temper and blames his wife, who’s close to the end of her fuse and can’t stop crying. Timmy’s daughter, on the other hand, has stopped communicating and their son spends most of his time escaping into books and has developed a strange cough. His wife is now begging Timmy to let them return to their home in the ‘burbs. But Timmy knows they must stay in the bunker in order to survive. It’s the only way at this point.

Two more weeks into the Crunch and Timmy’s wife has had enough. The boy is virulently sick and the antibiotics that Timmy had stored don’t seem to be helping. Their daughter has stopped eating and Timmy’s wife finally gives him an ultimatum: She’s taking the kids and returning to their home in the suburbs with or without him. Timmy weighs his options and decides that he can’t let her and the kids venture back to their house unprotected so he grudgingly packs their Chevy Suburban for the drive home. Or what’s left of their home. Looters have destroyed their neighborhood and most of the houses have burned to the ground because nobody organized the neighborhood into a defensive force that could have prevented the looting. Unfortunately, Timmy and his family will never make it home to see the wreckage because the highways are either closed or have been converted into ambush “kill zones” by marauding gangs before the military can restore order.

Meanwhile…

Ralph The Realist has adopted a different approach based on what he learned in the military as a Green Beret. Instead of withdrawing from his community he has taken proactive steps to deal with a “No Rule Of Law” scenario. Ralph is good friends with both the president of the neighborhood HOA and the principal of the nearby elementary school. Along with his wife and a couple of other friends of a similar mindset they have formed a prepper group and had begun taking action before the Crunch. Including storing ten 55-gallon drums of rice, wheat, beans and pasta in an unused storage shed at the local elementary school.

When news of rioting and societal breakdown begins to reach maximum velocity, Ralph and his group each begin to reach out to other friends and neighbors who – to no one’s surprise – are now very concerned about the current state of affairs, too. Many are open to taking action but nobody has a plan… except for Ralph and his group.

After the power grid goes down, Ralph’s prepper buddy, the president of the HOA, calls a neighborhood meeting and they discover that many of their neighbors have excellent skills that will help them survive the Crunch: One is a trauma nurse. Another is a welder. The guy down the street is a doctor and an avid hunter and there are several retired cops who live one block over.

Ralph asks for volunteers to form a neighborhood watch and almost everybody volunteers. They makes plans to barricade access to the neighborhood using old cars and RVs and set up a defensive perimeter. With roughly 150 families in their neighborhood there are more than enough adults with firearms experience to stand watch in shifts.

When Ralph’s son develops a strange cough, his wife takes her rifle and walks to the doctor’s house, a block over. She does not have to worry about leaving her house unattended since the “neighborhood watch on steriods” (hat tip: Rawles) is keeping the riff-raff out. The doctor correctly diagnoses her son’s cough and prescribes the right antibiotic. She then leaves her daughter to play with the doctor’s daughter for a few hours. The little one is coping with the Crunch as if it was a free day home from school: Fun!

After a week, Ralph’s son is feeling much better. His wife is happy and she has formed a gardening club with some of the other women on her block.

Three weeks later, Ralph receives word that things are still pretty crazy outside of their neighborhood. They’ve had a couple of gun fights when looters tried to gain access to their neighborhood but nobody was hurt. Word quickly spreads among the undesirables to leave Ralph’s neighborhood alone.

Everyone is coping reasonably well when a expedition group from another neighborhood proposes a trade of fish antibiotics (which can be used by humans) for some extra ammunition. The doctor advises Ralph that it would be a good trade, and since Ralph’s neighbor has a reloading press in his garage, they’re in no fear of running low on ammunition.

After another month, the military is finally able to get things under control and rule of law is restored.

A tale of two preppers: One a complete failure for adopting an ill-thought Lone Wolf strategy and the other successful after organizing his local neighborhood to withstand the perils of a Without Rule Of Law scenario.

About the Author: Sobert Gummer is the author of Sobert Gummer’s Survival Prepping For Hard Times web site. He has lived and traveled to some of the most dangerous cities in the world and has recently returned from living in South America where he fought off a home invasion with nothing more than a machete, married an Indian woman and had his head held over a fire by a Costa Rican witch doctor. He’s now back in the United States and prepping earnestly for an uncertain future while praying for the best. His latest book, Dogs For Preppers is now available at Amazon.com for your Kindle or Kindle app.

Monday, July 29, 2013

18 Similarities Between The Last Financial Crisis And Today

By Michael Snyder on The Economic Collapse Blog, posting an article with the title "It Is Happening Again: 18 Similarities Between The Last Financial Crisis And Today"

#1 According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategy team, their big institutional clients are selling stock at a rate not seen "since 2008".

#2 In 2008, stock prices had wildly diverged from where the economic fundamentals said that they should be. Now it has happened again.

#3 In early 2008, the average price of a gallon of gasoline rose substantially. It is starting to happen again. And remember, whenever the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. has risen above $3.80 during the past three years, a stock market decline has always followed.

#4 New home prices just experienced their largest two month drop since Lehman Brothers collapsed.

#5 During the last financial crisis, the mortgage delinquency rate rose dramatically. It is starting to happen again.

#6 Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, there was a spike in the number of adjustable rate mortgages. It is happening again.

#7 Just before the last financial crisis, unemployment claims started skyrocketing. Well, initial claims for unemployment benefits are rising again. Once we hit the 400,000 level, we will officially be in the danger zone.

#8 Continuing claims for unemployment benefits just spiked to the highest level since early 2009.

#9 The yield on 10 year Treasuries is now up to 2.60 percent. We also saw the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries rise significantly during the first half of 2008.

#10 According to Zero Hedge, "whenever the annual change in core capex, also known as Non-Defense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft shipments goes negative, the US has traditionally entered a recession". Guess what? It is rapidly heading toward negative territory again.

#11 Average hourly compensation in the United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter of 2013.

#12 In the month of June, spending at restaurants fell by the most that we have seen since February 2008.

#13 Just before the last financial crisis, corporate earnings were very disappointing. Now it is happening again.

#14 Margin debt spiked just before the dot.com bubble burst, it spiked just before the financial crash of 2008, and now it is spiking again.

#15 During 2008, the price of gold fell substantially. Now it is happening again. #16 Global business confidence is now the lowest that it has been since the last recession.

#17 Back in 2008, the U.S. national debt was rapidly rising to unsustainable levels. We are in much, much worse shape today.

#18 Prior to the last financial crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke assured the American people that home prices would not decline and that there would not be a recession. We all know what happened. Now he is once again promising that everything is going to be just fine.

Are the American people going to fall for it again?

Add to Michael Synder's points is that the stimulus from the Fed's printing money and dumping into the market is or has to stop at some point. Everything Bernanke makes a comments about slowing or stopping the fiat currency printing, the markets go crazy in a bad way. Not that I have any trust in the market financials anyway. They are hocus pocus.

The welfare rolls continue to grow. We are on target for 1/3 of the American population to be on welfare and this is not counting Social Security Insurance or Disability. Add to the underfunded state and muncialaity retirement costs from cities like Detroit going bankrupt, and there will be many more, is ading to the population rosters of financially strapped and therefore at risk.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

How to Plan For Any Disaster

How to Plan For Any Disaster - a mainstream financial planning article from Money.com it seems like more and more mainstream venues are talking about some sort of collapse preparation.  The value of this article is that it can serve as a "bridge" for someone who is not prepping at all, as opposed to the "go for broke', total planning and prep process for the coming collapse.

Many of us have people, be it family, friends or neighbors, who we are reluctant to expose our preps to.  Simply copying this article and sending or printing and passing out to these people can get them to thinking and prepping at some level, so when the collapse occurs and we end up taking some of these people in, absorbing them into our group, they will be more of an asset.  

Best case scenario is that someone you give this article will ask you questions.  Of course, you may have to give guarded answers as an OPSEC precaution, but is may result in another American who is better prepared to face the multiple possibilities of SHTF,....and maybe a family membr or friend who is less of a burden on you come SHTF. 

How to Plan For Any Disaster
Disasters disrupt life in unimaginable ways, making those affected much more vulnerable to secondary disasters — the kind caused by criminals. I’ve been through a number of earthquakes and lost a home to Hurricane Sandy. I know how all-consuming the aftermath can be.

Wildfires, tornadoes and other natural disasters seem to be happening more and more these days. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above normal and possibly extremely active.”

The danger and chaos that inevitably follow a natural (or for that matter — man-made) disaster, create opportunities for predators, who seem to slither out from under the rocks to prey upon their victims: identity thieves, burglars, snake oil salesmen disguised as home improvement contractors and fraudsters claiming to be raising funds to help ease the pain.

Plan Ahead

We can and have learned from past disasters that meaningful preparation can pay big dividends in helping people deal with and recover from the unimaginable. Here are some suggestions that might help you weather the disaster.

Have a family emergency disaster plan. Disasters can strike with little or no warning at any moment of the day. It is quite likely that many families are not together. Parents can be either at work or at home. Kids can be at school. Family members can be running chores or away on business trips or vacations. Therefore, you should develop a communication plan that establishes who you contact and when you contact them in the event of an emergency. You should also agree upon primary and secondary meeting places.

Keep emergency numbers handy for key support functions and home utilities. Create a list of all emergency service phone numbers, as well as those for your utility companies that provide electric power, natural gas, water and telephone services. Know where your shut-off switches and/or valves are for these services and how to shut them down. In event of a pending or significant disaster, turning off the electric, gas and water utilities — if it can be safely done — can help prevent secondary fires, explosions and internal flooding to your residence.

Make copies (front and back) of the documents that confirm your identity and allow you to buy what you need. Birth certificates, driver’s licenses and passports; Social Security, voter’s registration and medical insurance cards; credit and debit cards. Also, make sure you have the customer service information for financial institutions and credit card companies as well as your credit and debit card numbers so you can contact them immediately and arrange for credit and debit card replacement in the event they are lost. You may wish to store this information in an encrypted file so that you can access it online. In the physical world, you may want to store a copy of these documents either in a waterproof container that can be secured in a safe place or scan them onto a password protected, encrypted USB drive that you always carry with you.

Consider remote electronic data storage for irreplaceable documents or photographs. If you have some irreplaceable or historical documents, trust and estate documents such as wills and Powers of Attorney or special family photographs, consider scanning them onto a disk and/or storing them in an accessible online electronic vault.

Record model and serial numbers for your big-ticket items. For insurance and property identification purposes, record the model and serial numbers for items such as your flat screen televisions, computer equipment, cameras, audio gear, musical instruments, or other valuable personal belongings. It is wise to photograph these items as well in order to prove possession and store the photos on disk and/or in an electronic vault so they can be easily retrieved.

Assemble a “crash kit.” Pack a small suitcase or duffel bag with items such as sensitive documents, your wallet, purse, ATM and credit cards that you will need to grab in an emergency in order to secure them AND have 24-hour access to cash or purchasing power if needed. Also have your house, office and car keys close at hand. They may well provide access to secondary shelter.

Have a survival kit ready to go. Pack a separate bag with flashlights (LEDs preferred for battery life), extra batteries, a portable radio, a sharp utility knife, toilet paper, several bottles of water and energy food bars, a couple of lighters or match books, a portable first aid kit, other supplies and (of great psychic value) a few pairs of socks and underwear. Remember that you may well have to travel fast and light so be selective.

Keep your cell phones charged and bring chargers with you in the event of evacuation.

Consider utilizing the available special notification and alert features offered by many banks, credit and debit card issuers that will notify you via email or text when an unusual transaction occurs in one of your accounts – this is a good practice regardless of disaster planning.

If You Are a Disaster Victim

Protect important information and documents. Whether you’re in a shelter, staying with friends or crashing on your family’s couch, never let the documents that can authenticate you leave your sight.

Be proactive and check your credit report by visiting AnualCreditReport.com. Consider adding an initial security alert to your credit report. For more information go to the websites of each of the three major credit reporting agencies (Equifax, Experian and Trans Union). Monitoring your credit scores regularly, using a free service like Credit.com’s Credit Report Card, can alert you to a problem if you have an unexpected drop.

Ask the post office to hold your mail until you return home. If it appears that you will be unable to return home for an extended period of time, you may even consider getting a post office box. This will keep thieves from finding sensitive materials that are left in your mailbox.

Store sensitive documents in an encrypted email account that you can access if needed.

When filing claims with insurance, if you did not do so before the disaster, ask if your policy provides identity theft assistance and what are the parameters of your coverage.

Check your credit card and bank accounts online daily. In the event you detect unauthorized or questionable activity, immediately contact the appropriate financial services provider.

In the Aftermath of a Disaster

Be alert to the fact that there are many unscrupulous people who will look to take advantage of a disaster. Be on guard for:

Fly-by-night contractors asking for advanced payments for board-up and/or repair work. Scam operators looking to obtain personal or financial information from you under the pretext of helping you or being “an official” from an emergency assistance agency – like FEMA, or an insurance adjuster, investigator, etc.

Thieves and looters roaming impacted neighborhoods.

Individuals soliciting funds door to door, in public areas, or via the Internet claiming to assist the victims.

While this information is helpful, it is not exhaustive. Furthermore, you can take every step outlined above and still be a victim because you will never really know where all your information has landed. That said, there is no substitute for preparation and remaining cautious and alert before, during and after a disaster.