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Sunday, February 17, 2013

Why Survivalist's Should Buy Silver

This is a good common sense and straight forward article on why you should have silver in your Survival "portfolio", along with foods, gear, firearms and ammunition, and of course, a PLAN. This is from GE Christenson, aka the Deviant Investor.  Preppers should consider bookmarking his site and refer back to it from time to time or subsribe to e-mail updates as I will.

Why Buy Silver?

•  Silver has no counter-party risk. It is not someone else’s liability. Silver Eagles or Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins are recognized around the world and have intrinsic value everywhere. The same is NOT true for hundreds of paper currencies that have become worthless, usually because the government or central bank printed them to excess to pay the debts of governments that did not control spending.

•  The price of silver in US dollars since the year 2001 has been strongly correlated with the ever-increasing official national debt of the United States. Read $100 Silver! Yes, But When? I doubt that anyone believes the national debt will decrease or even remain constant over the next four years. We have every reason to believe that it will increase by well over $1,000,000,000,000 per year for many years. If the national debt is rapidly increasing and it correlates, on average, with the price of silver, then we can be reasonably certain that the HIGHLY VOLATILE price of silver will increase substantially over the next few years.

•  Silver has been used as money (medium of exchange and a store of value) for over 3,000 years. In most cultures, silver has been used for daily transactions far more often than gold. I have read that the word for “money” is the same as the word for “silver” in many languages.

•  In the United States silver was used as money – coins – until the 1960s when inflation in the paper money supply caused the price of silver to rise sufficiently that silver coins were removed from circulation. Do you remember silver dollars? They contained approximately 0.77 ounces of silver. Currently the US Mint produces silver eagles which contain 1.0 ounce of silver – and cost approximately $35.

•  Argentina has devalued their currency several times and has dropped eight zeros off their unbacked paper money in the past 30 years. The United States has not dropped any zeros from dollars, but it took approximately one-half of one dollar to buy an ounce of silver 100 years ago, while it takes over 30 in today’s reduced value dollars. It took about 20 dollars to buy an ounce of gold 100 years ago and it takes over 1,600 dollars to buy that same ounce of gold today. There are many more dollars (paper and electronic) in circulation today compared to 100 years ago. Hence the prices, measured in declining value dollars, for silver, gold, wheat, crude oil, bread, coffee, and ammunition is MUCH larger.

•  Throughout history the prices of gold and silver have increased and decreased together, usually with gold costing 10 to 20 times as much as silver. A historical ratio of 15 or 16 is often quoted and that places the current ratio, which is in excess of 50, as relatively high. Since Nixon “closed the gold window” on August 15, 1971 and allowed the dollar to become an unbacked paper currency that could be created in nearly unlimited quantities, the gold to silver ratio has ranged from a high of approximately 100 to a low of approximately 17. There is room for silver prices to explode higher, narrowing the ratio to perhaps 20 to 1. When gold reaches $3,500 (Jim Sinclair) and subsequently much higher in the next few years, and assuming the ratio drops to approximately 20 to 1, the price of silver could approach $200 per ounce, on its way to a much higher number, depending on the extent of the QE-Infinity “money printing,” panic, hyperinflation, and investor demand.

•  If you think a silver price of $200 per ounce is outrageous, I suspect you would find near universal agreement among most Americans. But is a national debt in excess of $16,000,000,000,000 less outrageous? If unfunded liabilities are included the “fiscal gap” is, depending on who is calculating it, approximately $100,000,000,000,000 to $220,000,000,000,000. For perspective, that places the unfunded liabilities of the US government at approximately $700,000 per person in the United States. Is $700,000 unfunded liability (debt) per man, woman, and child more believable than a price for silver of $200?

It seems likely that the populace will eventually realize that:

•  Government spending is out of control and will not be voluntarily reduced.

•  “Printing money” or debt monetization (QE) is necessary and inevitable in order to continue funding the excess spending of the US government. More money in circulation means a declining purchasing power for the dollar. The decline is likely to accelerate at some time in the future.

•  The real value of our savings and retirement diminishes as the dollar declines in value.

•  People will panic and shift into real assets to preserve their purchasing power. (There is no fever like gold fever!)

•  That panic will cause gold, silver, and many other real assets to drastically increase in price, as measured in devalued dollars.

•  It is better to be early than late if a panic-moment is about to arrive.

•  Silver is less expensive per ounce than gold and more available for purchase than gold, particularly for middle-class westerners. An investment into silver is likely to appreciate more than a similar investment in gold.

What Do You Believe?

•  Do you believe that excessive spending and debt will be reduced?

•  Do you believe that the decline in purchasing power of the dollar over the last 100 years will suddenly reverse?

•  Do you believe that congressional promises for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and government pensions will be broken?

•  Do you believe the Federal Reserve will continue to print the money to pay for those promises?

•  Do you believe your savings and retirement are totally safe in paper investments denominated in dollars?

•  Do you believe, as history indicates, that paper money eventually devalues to zero while gold and silver retain their value?

•  Do you believe that the world will suddenly stop using silver, instead of finding new uses for it every year?

Would you rather trust silver coins in a safe place or paper money and political promises?  Most people will do nothing to protect their financial future.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

SHTF and Chaos Just A Little Bit Closer

This week is no different that the last 52 finding the world in turmoil, perhaps just a bit more as the U.S. Economy continues to degrade and all of us are just a little closer to a Economic Collapse than ever before.

Greater chances of a multi-nation war in the Middle East closing off as much as 25% of our oil imports. Israel crossed in Syrian air space to attack Syrian troops. Syrian rebels, backed in part by Al Qaida, took the side of th Syrian government who has been massacring them. When, not if, but when the Syrian rebels succeed in driving Assad from power, Israel will have a much more hateful enemy on their northern border.

Prior to the attack Iran stated that any attack on Assad and Syria is an attack on Iran. It doesn't matter that Iran did nothing yet in retaliation for the Israeli strike, this makes Iran much more likely to plunge the Middle East and some of our oil imports into chaos with terrorist and/or nuclear strikes on Israel. Add in the Syrian chemical weapons threat and the situation is dire.

North Korea and Kim "Baby Face" Jong-un are planning another nuclear test. China is bashing about Japan and threatening conflict over a series of islands in the South China Sea. A shooting war here, even short lived, could be a global economic collapse trigger.

Then you have the situation in the United States,.......

2012 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product data showed that the economy slowed or contracted to 0.1% growth. Furthermore, the previous 3rd Quarter growth was adjusted to 1.5%. It is very troublesome that multiple sessions of money printing, called Quantitative easing, has failed to stimulate any growth. Exports and consumer confidence are way down as well. Discretionary spending cuts of over $1 Trillion due to the "sequestration" and the large tax burden being placed on the people courtesy of obamacare with a 10%+ health insurance premium hikes all spend doom and gloom for the future. Not the far off future, "let's kick the can down the road aways" future, but the very near future.

This past years drought, adding to the recent agricultural woes combined with the predictions of continued drought and poor harvests add to the concerns over very high food prices and diminished availability. Many are expecting food riots, especially if Federal entitlement cuts reduce food stamp and welfare output.

And then the threat of internal turmoil, to what extent nobody really can even guess. But on the smaller scope, the factors of (probable) sociology-ethnic trouble over the Supreme Court soon reviewing Obama's birth certificate and social security card for authenticity makes upheaval in major cities,....Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, St Louis and others seem like a distinct possibility. The socialist bent threats or plans to enact some sort of weapons ban or even confiscation bring a dire future into focus.

Lastly, if Congress doesn't pass a budget, the Pentagon will have to absorb $46 Billion in spending restrictions for this fiscal year.  Overall, the military will furlough 800,000 civilian workers for up to 22 days each throughout the rest of the FY, and, lay off 46,000 temporary and contract employees.  Secretary of Defense Panetta said, "These steps would seriously damage the fragile American economy,......".  Imagine what the sequestration will do if the Military has to reduce forces putting tens of thousands of service members out on the street?  

Monday, February 11, 2013

Enhanced 5.56mm Round?

UrbanSurvivalSkills received an e-mail from Hank asking if we had any information on the military replacing the M855 5.56x45mm standard issue round? Hank said he did not know what the name (designation) would be but had heard that this new round was much more powerful and accurate than the older cartridge currently in service.

UrbanMan Replies: Okay Hank, I pinged several old friends of mine and this is what they tell me:

There is a new round and it is called the M855 Enhanced Performance Round (EPR). I had not previously heard about it and my sources have not seen it, have not shot it, nor been issued it, but have heard about it.

Apparently it is a hotter round, well over 3,000 feet per second muzzle velocity, which also means the chamber pressures will be greater and the barrels will burn out faster. And just because a round is faster, it does not mean it is more accurate - in fact, when pushing the velocity issue and increasing chamber pressures, usually the accuracy suffers.

The accuracy claim may simply be a (surmised) enhanced hit probability at the longest ranges due to the higher velocity. But again, more than velocity factors in accuracy,....bullet weight, bullet design, rifling and rate of twist in the barrel, and several more factors are involved.

This new EPR round is supposed to be able to penetrate 3/8ths inch of steel at 400 meters. I am told that Special Operations will not be using this new round, but continues to use the old M855 62 grain (SS109) and a newer round called the SOST (for Special Operations Science and Technology) or sometimes called the OTMRP (for Open Tip Match Rear Penetrator) and goes by the Navy designation Mk318 MOD 0.

These new 5.56mm rounds are all designed and built at least partially due to widely believed and reported poor performance of M855 62 grain in soft tissue. Soldiers and Marines shooting skinnies with the M855 62 grain round would often experience over penetration meaning alot of the buller energy was leaving the target. Sometimes this is called an ice pick type of wound.  And as you'll remember, stopping power is based somewhat on how much energy of the bullet strike stays in the target.

Rather than going to a different caliber, such as the excellent 6.8mm SPC, the military decided to minimze costs of re-barelling, new magazines, etc. and attempted to make a better round given the parameters of the 5.56 x 45mm cartridge.

For my 5.56mm (.223) guns, I'm happy with the variation of ammunition I have available for them.  There are things more important than the bullet configuration or weight such as a person's ability with the firearm.

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Second American Civil War

This article, titled "Second American Civil War" came from a site called Crime File News and was sent to me for comment. I'll let this article stand until the end, then I will make my comments.

How the Impending Second American Civil War Will Play Out:

During the Clinton Administration tyranny came in the form of the 1994 ban on new sales and manufacturing of certain common firearms. They did not try and outlaw or confiscate the ones already possessed by Americans.

Soon there were two serious incidents of violent resistance. There was the Waco Branch Davidians standoff and massacre followed by the bombing of the Oklahoma Federal Building. The anger of millions of Americans boiled over they as removed an unprecedented Leftist members from Congress in the midterm elections.

Under the Obama Administration not only are the Leftists desperately trying to establish a far more restrictive gun ban they are now poised to seize the 401 K retirement accounts of millions of hard working Americans to prop up the Ponzi Scheme we call Social Security. Many Americans would consider this an act of war, at least the ones that have set aside savings for retirement.

The National Defense Authorization Act was obviously created to use against any Americans that disagree with the Obama Administration. When Conservative Americans begin to disappear it won’t come without serious retaliation.

Today’s America has never been so deeply divided. Instead of state borders, Americans are divided by the boundaries of the larger urban areas. The large Leftwing inner city urban areas are nearly all completely surrounded by Constitution loving Conservatives. Should a massive insurrection break out the large concentrated urban areas would be crushed in a hurry.

The inner-city entitlement addicted people have no self-reliance skills, internal food, and water or fuel sources. They are tightly concentrated in geographic areas. During an insurrection they’d soon be fighting among themselves for survival.

The suburban folks are somewhat more self-sufficient, and likely to have survival staples. They will be able to trap or shoot small game when normal food supplies are interrupted. The will also get support from others away from the cities.

Next we have the rural areas that are solidly self-sufficient and politically Conservative. They control nearly all of the nations food, fuel and water. Starving off the urban areas would be very easy. Additionally millions of well-trained military veterans live in these politically conservative areas. Needless to say there are no shortages of arms and bomb making resources throughout the vast areas of rural America. The population there has the skills and discipline to use them.

The federal government would watch the loyalty of the alphabet police and the military to the Obama Administration become seriously strained. Adolph Hitler insured loyalty by letting his upper echelon SS members keep a great deal of the spoils of their conquests. Will American law enforcement and military allow themselves to be similarly corrupted? Certainly some will.

Right now all over America, churches, VFW halls along with American Legion Halls are loaded with veterans and concerned Conservatives. Many of them have been quietly making contingent civil war plans.

Conservatives have stockpiled millions of weapons and billions of rounds of ammunition over the last four years. They can be counted upon to already have solid plans in place to disrupt federal government operations, the courts and wipe out any collaborating alphabet police.

State and local police will begin picking sides. This scenario would bring the greatest bloodbath this continent has ever seen. The large urban areas would fall hard along with their starving entitlement zombies.

Even with all of the technology it will be impossible for the urban areas to inflict significant damage to vast rural areas especially without food, water, arms and fuel.

The inner-city people have some handguns. The people in the rural areas have those too but they’re backed up with millions of rifles and shotguns. The arms, ammunition and military hardware manufactures are all located far from the Leftist controlled cities.

The American Leftists would soon beg Communist China to send their troops and military resources.

With any luck tyrannical Leftist leaders will be dangling from scaffolds everywhere before that happens. We must remember history, only three percent of American participated in the Revolutionary War. Determined Conservative Americans don’t have to accept government Tyranny. They just have to get serious and make Tyranny personally very expensive for rogue government politicians and their appointed bureaucrats.

UrbanMan's Comments:

"Soon there were two serious incidents of violent resistance. There was the Waco Branch Davidians standoff and massacre........" this makes it sound like the Branch Davidians sprung forth from the Clinton assault weapons ban. The Davidians were nothing more than weak minded people being controlled by a loser psychopath. The Government based it's warrant on feeble grounds that the legal AR-15 parts that the Davidians were buying were being converted to selective fire M-16 rifles. The ATF also fabricated documentation that the Davidians were operating a Meth lab therefore qualifying for military advisory and support assistance due to the drug nexus. While I'll cry no tears over people who abuse children or allow that they be abused, the Government was simply wrong at Waco on so many accounts. They paid a price as four ATF agents were killed during the warrant service attempt. 
The Oklahoma bombing was not resistance to a tryanical government, it was out right murder.

"........Leftists desperately trying to establish a far more restrictive gun ban they are now poised to seize the 401 K retirement accounts of millions of hard working Americans to prop up the Ponzi Scheme we call Social Security." While liberal, left wing elements of the government are very obviously trying to establish a very restrictive gun ban - they pretty much succeded in the State of New York - there is nothing on the table in Congress or publically out of the White House to confiscate privately owned 401K plans. There is no use fanning these rumors until if/when it comes true.

"Right now all over America, churches, VFW halls along with American Legion Halls are loaded with veterans and concerned Conservatives. Many of them have been quietly making contingent civil war plans. " Wow, what a claim. I have never heard that from anyone. I would say while that many veterans and other people would give their lives rather than have freedoms taken away, pubic planning for civil war in churches and veterans groups is certainly not going on, and if it is, it is a small density effort.

My final comment is that this article was way over the top. With a Federal attempt to ban weapons and accessories like New York did, there would be 24 to 30 states nullifying those laws not to mention court challenges, etc. The current administration, certainly far left, knows this and would not trade their ability to govern, by pushing the anti-gun agenda too far. If they do, it will paralyze the rest of government for the next two years if not four.