18 Similarities Between The Last Financial Crisis And Today

By Michael Snyder on The Economic Collapse Blog, posting an article with the title "It Is Happening Again: 18 Similarities Between The Last Financial Crisis And Today"

#1 According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategy team, their big institutional clients are selling stock at a rate not seen "since 2008".

#2 In 2008, stock prices had wildly diverged from where the economic fundamentals said that they should be. Now it has happened again.

#3 In early 2008, the average price of a gallon of gasoline rose substantially. It is starting to happen again. And remember, whenever the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. has risen above $3.80 during the past three years, a stock market decline has always followed.

#4 New home prices just experienced their largest two month drop since Lehman Brothers collapsed.

#5 During the last financial crisis, the mortgage delinquency rate rose dramatically. It is starting to happen again.

#6 Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, there was a spike in the number of adjustable rate mortgages. It is happening again.

#7 Just before the last financial crisis, unemployment claims started skyrocketing. Well, initial claims for unemployment benefits are rising again. Once we hit the 400,000 level, we will officially be in the danger zone.

#8 Continuing claims for unemployment benefits just spiked to the highest level since early 2009.

#9 The yield on 10 year Treasuries is now up to 2.60 percent. We also saw the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries rise significantly during the first half of 2008.

#10 According to Zero Hedge, "whenever the annual change in core capex, also known as Non-Defense Capital Goods excluding Aircraft shipments goes negative, the US has traditionally entered a recession". Guess what? It is rapidly heading toward negative territory again.

#11 Average hourly compensation in the United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter of 2013.

#12 In the month of June, spending at restaurants fell by the most that we have seen since February 2008.

#13 Just before the last financial crisis, corporate earnings were very disappointing. Now it is happening again.

#14 Margin debt spiked just before the dot.com bubble burst, it spiked just before the financial crash of 2008, and now it is spiking again.

#15 During 2008, the price of gold fell substantially. Now it is happening again. #16 Global business confidence is now the lowest that it has been since the last recession.

#17 Back in 2008, the U.S. national debt was rapidly rising to unsustainable levels. We are in much, much worse shape today.

#18 Prior to the last financial crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke assured the American people that home prices would not decline and that there would not be a recession. We all know what happened. Now he is once again promising that everything is going to be just fine.

Are the American people going to fall for it again?

Add to Michael Synder's points is that the stimulus from the Fed's printing money and dumping into the market is or has to stop at some point. Everything Bernanke makes a comments about slowing or stopping the fiat currency printing, the markets go crazy in a bad way. Not that I have any trust in the market financials anyway. They are hocus pocus.

The welfare rolls continue to grow. We are on target for 1/3 of the American population to be on welfare and this is not counting Social Security Insurance or Disability. Add to the underfunded state and muncialaity retirement costs from cities like Detroit going bankrupt, and there will be many more, is ading to the population rosters of financially strapped and therefore at risk.

How to Plan For Any Disaster

How to Plan For Any Disaster - a mainstream financial planning article from Money.com it seems like more and more mainstream venues are talking about some sort of collapse preparation.  The value of this article is that it can serve as a "bridge" for someone who is not prepping at all, as opposed to the "go for broke', total planning and prep process for the coming collapse.

Many of us have people, be it family, friends or neighbors, who we are reluctant to expose our preps to.  Simply copying this article and sending or printing and passing out to these people can get them to thinking and prepping at some level, so when the collapse occurs and we end up taking some of these people in, absorbing them into our group, they will be more of an asset.  

Best case scenario is that someone you give this article will ask you questions.  Of course, you may have to give guarded answers as an OPSEC precaution, but is may result in another American who is better prepared to face the multiple possibilities of SHTF,....and maybe a family membr or friend who is less of a burden on you come SHTF. 

How to Plan For Any Disaster
Disasters disrupt life in unimaginable ways, making those affected much more vulnerable to secondary disasters — the kind caused by criminals. I’ve been through a number of earthquakes and lost a home to Hurricane Sandy. I know how all-consuming the aftermath can be.

Wildfires, tornadoes and other natural disasters seem to be happening more and more these days. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above normal and possibly extremely active.”

The danger and chaos that inevitably follow a natural (or for that matter — man-made) disaster, create opportunities for predators, who seem to slither out from under the rocks to prey upon their victims: identity thieves, burglars, snake oil salesmen disguised as home improvement contractors and fraudsters claiming to be raising funds to help ease the pain.

Plan Ahead

We can and have learned from past disasters that meaningful preparation can pay big dividends in helping people deal with and recover from the unimaginable. Here are some suggestions that might help you weather the disaster.

Have a family emergency disaster plan. Disasters can strike with little or no warning at any moment of the day. It is quite likely that many families are not together. Parents can be either at work or at home. Kids can be at school. Family members can be running chores or away on business trips or vacations. Therefore, you should develop a communication plan that establishes who you contact and when you contact them in the event of an emergency. You should also agree upon primary and secondary meeting places.

Keep emergency numbers handy for key support functions and home utilities. Create a list of all emergency service phone numbers, as well as those for your utility companies that provide electric power, natural gas, water and telephone services. Know where your shut-off switches and/or valves are for these services and how to shut them down. In event of a pending or significant disaster, turning off the electric, gas and water utilities — if it can be safely done — can help prevent secondary fires, explosions and internal flooding to your residence.

Make copies (front and back) of the documents that confirm your identity and allow you to buy what you need. Birth certificates, driver’s licenses and passports; Social Security, voter’s registration and medical insurance cards; credit and debit cards. Also, make sure you have the customer service information for financial institutions and credit card companies as well as your credit and debit card numbers so you can contact them immediately and arrange for credit and debit card replacement in the event they are lost. You may wish to store this information in an encrypted file so that you can access it online. In the physical world, you may want to store a copy of these documents either in a waterproof container that can be secured in a safe place or scan them onto a password protected, encrypted USB drive that you always carry with you.

Consider remote electronic data storage for irreplaceable documents or photographs. If you have some irreplaceable or historical documents, trust and estate documents such as wills and Powers of Attorney or special family photographs, consider scanning them onto a disk and/or storing them in an accessible online electronic vault.

Record model and serial numbers for your big-ticket items. For insurance and property identification purposes, record the model and serial numbers for items such as your flat screen televisions, computer equipment, cameras, audio gear, musical instruments, or other valuable personal belongings. It is wise to photograph these items as well in order to prove possession and store the photos on disk and/or in an electronic vault so they can be easily retrieved.

Assemble a “crash kit.” Pack a small suitcase or duffel bag with items such as sensitive documents, your wallet, purse, ATM and credit cards that you will need to grab in an emergency in order to secure them AND have 24-hour access to cash or purchasing power if needed. Also have your house, office and car keys close at hand. They may well provide access to secondary shelter.

Have a survival kit ready to go. Pack a separate bag with flashlights (LEDs preferred for battery life), extra batteries, a portable radio, a sharp utility knife, toilet paper, several bottles of water and energy food bars, a couple of lighters or match books, a portable first aid kit, other supplies and (of great psychic value) a few pairs of socks and underwear. Remember that you may well have to travel fast and light so be selective.

Keep your cell phones charged and bring chargers with you in the event of evacuation.

Consider utilizing the available special notification and alert features offered by many banks, credit and debit card issuers that will notify you via email or text when an unusual transaction occurs in one of your accounts – this is a good practice regardless of disaster planning.

If You Are a Disaster Victim

Protect important information and documents. Whether you’re in a shelter, staying with friends or crashing on your family’s couch, never let the documents that can authenticate you leave your sight.

Be proactive and check your credit report by visiting AnualCreditReport.com. Consider adding an initial security alert to your credit report. For more information go to the websites of each of the three major credit reporting agencies (Equifax, Experian and Trans Union). Monitoring your credit scores regularly, using a free service like Credit.com’s Credit Report Card, can alert you to a problem if you have an unexpected drop.

Ask the post office to hold your mail until you return home. If it appears that you will be unable to return home for an extended period of time, you may even consider getting a post office box. This will keep thieves from finding sensitive materials that are left in your mailbox.

Store sensitive documents in an encrypted email account that you can access if needed.

When filing claims with insurance, if you did not do so before the disaster, ask if your policy provides identity theft assistance and what are the parameters of your coverage.

Check your credit card and bank accounts online daily. In the event you detect unauthorized or questionable activity, immediately contact the appropriate financial services provider.

In the Aftermath of a Disaster

Be alert to the fact that there are many unscrupulous people who will look to take advantage of a disaster. Be on guard for:

Fly-by-night contractors asking for advanced payments for board-up and/or repair work. Scam operators looking to obtain personal or financial information from you under the pretext of helping you or being “an official” from an emergency assistance agency – like FEMA, or an insurance adjuster, investigator, etc.

Thieves and looters roaming impacted neighborhoods.

Individuals soliciting funds door to door, in public areas, or via the Internet claiming to assist the victims.

While this information is helpful, it is not exhaustive. Furthermore, you can take every step outlined above and still be a victim because you will never really know where all your information has landed. That said, there is no substitute for preparation and remaining cautious and alert before, during and after a disaster.

U.S. Military Prepares for Global Unrest Amid Climate Fears

Op-Editorial piece featured on-line, written by Marlene Cimons of Climate Nexus for LiveScience, and brought to my attention by a reader who stated that "if the military is planning on contingencies missions for global warning chaos, surely they have to be planning contingencies for economic collapse, martial law, etc, etc." Well, James you are right about the military having contingency plans for about everything. These are called OPLANS. Doesn't mean the military wants to execute these plans, just being prepared.


Though Earth's shifting climate evokes many images, civil unrest usually isn't one of them. Yet, a warming planet could have a profound impact on national security, both in the United States and abroad. This time, the threat isn't from terrorism or a single enemy, but from natural disasters occurring on an unprecedented scale.

Acts of nature fueled by a warming climate — for example, floods and prolonged drought — may lead to disrupted migration, food and water shortages, and other public health crises — which, in turn, could prompt civil and political instability. Those impacts would pose a particularly profound threat for people in countries with fragile governments, including key U.S. strategic interests.

This threat has Pentagon officials worried enough to speak out and to invest in research to better understand the relationships among conflict, socioeconomic conditions and climate. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) plans to use the data to predict future threats and develop ways to cope with them.

Under its highly selective Minerva social-science program, the DOD has awarded researchers at the University of Maryland a three-year, $1.9 million grant to develop models that will help policymakers anticipate what could happen to societies under a range of potential climate-change scenarios.

"It's likely that physical and economic disruptions resulting from climate change could heighten tensions in sensitive areas of the world," said Elisabeth Gilmore, an assistant professor at the University of Maryland's school of public policy and the study's lead researcher. "The environmental changes from climate change can have important effects on our well-being and security. We need to better understand these interactions."

Her team plans to use statistical models and case studies to identify the best predictors of climate-related conflict, and then use the data and a novel simulation method to generate forecasts of conflict over a range of socioeconomic and climate-change scenarios. Finally, the project will identify a range of military and policy interventions that could reduce the occurrence of climate-related civil conflict.

The Pentagon has been concerned about the national security implications of climate change for quite some time, and military officials have continued to speak out about them.

For example, Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command, repeatedly has warned of the national security dangers of climate change. In fact, earlier this year, he said global warming was "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."

In 2007, CNA, a Pentagon-funded think tank that conducts in-depth research and analysis, released a report from a panel of retired senior military officers and national security experts who predicted that extreme weather events prompted by climate shifts could disrupt the U.S. way of life and cause already weak governments to fall, particularly in many Asian, African and Middle Eastern nations where marginal living standards already exist.

Moreover, the report warned that the United States may find itself drawn into these situations to help provide stability before conditions worsen, before they are exploited by extremists or after a conflict has begun. Even stable governments, like the United States' and those of nations in Europe, could be pressured to take in large numbers of immigrants and refugees as drought increases and food production dwindles in Latin America and Africa, the report added.

Some researchers have suggested that framing climate change as a threat to national security and public health, rather than to the environment, might make the issue more relevant and meaningful to many conservative Americans and others who tend to deny or dismiss it. But, surprisingly, recent research published in Climatic Change by Teresa Myers of George Mason University and her colleagues indicated that such seems to make those individuals angry.

The researchers weren't sure why this approach elicited an angry response, but they wonder whether the climate-change deniers resented an attempt to connect national security — an issue they care about — with climate change, an issue they tend to dismiss. Or, they may have been upset with the researchers for presenting claims about global warming and national security they did not think were authentic or credible.

Instead, perhaps the doubters should read the words of retired U.S. Gen. Gordon R. Sullivan, chairman of CNA's military advisory board and the U.S. Army's former chief of staff. He seems to believe that enough scientific evidence of climate change's impact exists to be sobering — and that it deserves the U.S. government's attention.

"We seem to be standing by —and, frankly, asking — for perfectness in science,"' Sullivan wrote in the 2007 CNA report. "People are saying they want to be convinced, perfectly. They want to know the climate-science projections with 100 percent certainty. Well, we know a great deal, and even with that, there is still uncertainty. But the trend line is very clear. We never have 100 percent certainty. We never have it. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield. That's something we know. You have to act with incomplete information. You have to act based on the trend line. You have to act on your intuition sometimes."

Survival Ammo and Guns

I received this e-mail from a reader: "I am 63 year old man, widower, with my child and grandchildren living across the country, so I am pretty much by myself. I don't want to be anyone's patsy so I am getting somewhat ready for a real bad scenario where the society turns south. I live on a fixed budget but am pretty dang frugal and have stocked alot of food, mostly canned and dry goods. I'm a little short in the guns column having just a .357 magnum revolver, a 9mm handgun and a .30-06 hunting rifle. But for the life of me I can't find any ammunition. I'd like to get another rifle like an M-1A or AR-15,...I used both in Viet Nam,...but damn sure don't want to get a gun and have no ammunition for it. Do you think I absolutely need a military style rifle? Do you think the ammunition shortage will soon pass?"

UrbanMan replies:  There are indications that some ammunition supplies are coming back slowly.  I know several people that check daily if not twice daily on ammunition availability in a wide rnge of stores,..gun stores, chain sorting good stores and Wal-mart.  I say get ammo when and where you can - I would not wait for the deals.

Look for the on-line ammunition distributors such as Natchez Shooters Supply, Ammo-Man, Cheaper Than Dirt, Sportsmans Guide, even Cabelas. 

I hope you know that you can shoot .38 Special in your .357 magnum revolver.  If not, then add that to your list to look for as well.  If you can join a Civilian Marksmanship Program approved gun club, you can be a CMP member and order .30-06 ammunition directly from the CMP.  It may take 6 months or longer, but a case of ammunition being delivered by UPS one day is a nice suprise. 

Yes, I would obtain the excellent M1A1 or an AR platform if you can afford it.  You'll need more than just the gun.  A good supply of magazines - I would consider a dozen to be minimally sufficient.  Probably a magazine carrying method such as an assault vest or magazines pouches at least.  I would also consider a good 12 gauge pump shotgun as well   That would complete a good survival-SHTF-collapse battery of firearms in my mind.

Some people are creating innovative ways to track and find ammunition supplies.  One such site is Ammo-can.net  .  There is a new web application that is making finding local sources of ammo easier during the current ammo shortage.  The developer say's "Contrary to popular belief, many retailers are getting ammo shipments on a regular basis right now. It’s just that ammo is selling approximately 30-50 times faster than it was prior to December, so at any given time shelves are likely to be empty.

If you have a lot of time on your hands you can travel to your local Wal Mart or other retailer everyday and check their stock and hope you get lucky.  Ammo-can.net has near real time availability of ammo for most Wal Mart stores. It doesn’t look like the website is 100% perfect yet, but it does seem to work. According to the site, my local Wal Mart had limited stock of 9mm Winchester ammo. I went right down to the store and low and behold, there was a box of 9mm.

Note, you may have to hit the Force Check link to get the most accurate stock levels. After you run the Force Check you have to wait about one minute for the page to refresh. "