Comments on the Collapse Factors

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comment from Anonymous on the Collapse Factors: "Since the beginning of the financial collapse, which started in Oct 2008 (but has it's roots back in 1998 and 9/11/01), I have been amazed at how long things have continued to work in an almost "normal" fashion. All of my economics training is telling me this will end badly, but the one area I have to be honest about is that it is taking longer than one might have expected. We might see a "lost decade" like Japan, or a continued slow motion train wreck as we have now. But it doesn't change the need to prepare for the eventual collapse.

Our country still has about $10 or $20 trillion of non-levereged net worth to borrow against. But that will go fast. Things could collapse soon if foreign governments demand gold instead of dollars. But if not, this existing situation could go on for a few more years. For me, the acid test will be interest rates. When the Fed cannot control interest rates, and we see the trend like Greece for the 2 year bond at 48% interest, the gig is up. Just my two cents worth.

UrbanMan replies: I think you're on the mark, but I think the beginnings of the collapse occured with F.D.R.'s new deal and several Administrations since,......one of those factos being coming off the Gold standard. I also think you're spot on with the slow collapse scenario. I think we are going to see that. It may hasten with a cataclysmic event like a nuclear or cyber terrorist attack, but the odds are on a slow slide into a pre-collapse depression like era.

But the situation cannot stay at this point forever. The question is just how long will this be until chaos and anarchy takes over,...SHTF,...which will be a natural result when this nation of people, the majority of which are used to a decent life, have to struggle to survive?

I think we'll be very much like Greece, and maybe very soon. I'm hoping to be able to move (no, not to the Great American Redoubt) and get better prepared to live it out,..but I feel the great weight of the debt, inflation, inept Federal Government response, dwindling resources, societal issues, and disenfranchised masses making it come sooner rather than later.

The Government cannot do much. Their Courses of Action remain: 1 - trying to control the people who have nothing and nothing to lose,...read "military control", or, 2 - Over taxation and confiscation of wealth and assets,...read "Socialist State".

What other choices does the government have? The vast entitlement society has got to be coming to an end. With 43 to 45 million people dependant upon the government now depending upon their wits, what will the ground truth be then?

SHTF Handguns: Another Reader Question

I received an e-mail question about handguns for personal protection in a survival or collapse environment. "Urbanman, I am in a loose knit group, I guess you can call us a survival band. There are four of us couples. Between us all we have a couple deer rifles and shotguns, but discussed the need to have some handguns and everyone is on board with buying the same one for ammunition and magazine compatibility. We can all agree on the Beretta military handgun in 9mm, but I recently was told by a neighbor, a retired Army guy, that the Army is getting rid of the Berettas. Is this true? Are we making a bad choice with the Beretta?"


UrbanMan replies: Yes, it is true the Army is looking at replacing the Beretta M9, 9mm handgun. Not necessarily because it is a bad design, the guns in the service have reached the limit of their life cycle. They have been in service since around 1986. On occasion I have carried the Beretta M9 or 92SF as well as a Beretta 96D in .40 caliber S&W.

Since 1986 alot of improvements have come of the handgun industry,..to name a few:
1. Better ergo-metrics with interchangeable grip inserts to make the gun fit the end users hand better.
2. Integral picatinny rail underneath the frame in order to mount a handgun light and or laser.

The Beretta can be learned to well enough. Is reliable and uses metal magazines with a metal magazine catch. Magazines are plentiful and available either in 9mm or .40 S&W, both of which I would not feel inadequately armed with, albeit a handgun is primarily a defensive weapons. I think you are on the right track in selecting a common handgun and each survival group members should have a long gun and a handgun.

There are many other good handguns out there, among them the Glock series pistols; Smith and Wesson M&P series semi-automatics; Sig-Sauers; Heckler and Koch. You are going to find all different makes and models, and calibers, of handguns across this country accepted for agency use.

Ruger also makes good, and cheaper priced, pistols as well. The advantage with the 9mm is usually a extra round or two in the magazines and a little bit cheaper ammunition.

Bottom line is that any quality handgun will do,...you ought to be more concerned with training everyone in your group on whatever handgun you select. Good luck to you and the development of your Survival Group,...hope you never have to see SHTF, but it is nice knowing you are beginning to get ready. Don't forget about your long guns as they are your primary survival firearms for personal protection during the collapse.

Earthquakes, Hurricanes and other Natural Disasters - whats your SHTF Communications Plan?

Within the past week we have seen Earthquakes on the Colorado-New Mexico border and in the Larger Washington D.C. area. In the case of the District of Columbia, people reported their voice cellular communications affected. Oddly enough texting was not as affected for the people I called to look into this, however most reported their phones out of service for both for some of the time.

We have Scientists predicting a large earthquake in the Memphis, Tennessee area. More floods are forecasted for the Missouri and Mississippi rivers regions. And then you have California.......with predictions to a giant earthquake coming with hundreds of thousands of casualties to even the dire prediction of the California coast sliding off into the Pacific.

Now we have Hurricane Irene barreling down on the East coast. Then to top it off, my cellular carrier has a tower gone so as my phone jumps around to connect to a tower, I drop calls all the time. All of this got me to thinking about most of the people out there unprepared to react to a communications shutdown and live within a broader communications bare environment.

I have a no-communications plan not only with my family but the people who will be part of my survival group. We have planned routes of travel to our planned primary survival holeup (my house) and to our secondary holeup as well. The first people at either location, as most of us work during the day, will monitor our emergency radio and establish a base station net control.

We have emergency linkup points selected in case of no-shows. We have this backed up by Push to Talk Family Radio System Walk-About type radios with pre-selected primary, alternate, contingency and emergency channels and brevity codes.

I have some higher end VHF radios, but no enough to go around to all survival group members and to valuable to field now. They will be in use once the survival group co-locates.

We have rehearsed this with most of our moving parts (survival group members) at a pre-arranged time to denote a notional national emergency. Doesn't have to be a natural disaster. It could be a pandemic outbreak alert, a nuclear or EMP attack, a market collapse or other government announcement sending people and society into chaos.

SO, I just wanted to remind everyone to imagine an event creating chaos with our normal landline and cellular communications systems. What would you do? Do you know what your family, friends and survival team members would do?

Reader Questions of Collapse Factors

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received two e-mail questions and we're going to respond to in a single post.
 
Wayne asked:  "Sovereign Man said that two things – economic deterioration and the increasingly heavy hand of Big Brother– are the essential ingredients in revolution.   When combined, widespread social upheaval is nearly a foregone conclusion.  Then he went on to state that thinking people need to recognize the risks and consequences at stake, and formulate a plan to prepare for them. My ultimate recommendation is to set up a safe haven location outside of your home country– a crash pad in a stable place where you can feel secure in your family’s safety and watch the turmoil on television instead of from your front porch. (p.s. these are almost verbatim).  What do you think of this and is there any relation to the riots you wrote about last week?"

UrbanMan replies:  I have not read Sovereign Man for awhile, but he is dead on the mark.  Excessive government regulation which tends to take freedoms away from people as well as destroy the economy, and the economy tanking making it harder for people to make ends meet will set the stage for riots,....be it food riots, riots against authority,...anything excuse or reason will do to serve as a catalyst for the people's frustrations.   And I think we are seeing the leading edge of riots in this country that have plagued Europe.  It will get worse as this country runs out of money to pay entitlements.  The "entitled" will think they are getting the short end of the stick and these groups are largely in urban densities.   Can anyone say "Detroit"?    

As far as Sovereign Man's recommendation to set up a safe haven outside of your home country?   Where the hell is that going to be?  Costa Rica or some other Central American country where the military rules and gringos have second class rights?   No thanks, I'm sticking to the good ole U.S.  The more of us are prepared, the better off this country and also better the chances of rebuilding something worthwhile.......and preparation be it for natural disasters, economic depression or a total SHTF scenario, are becoming much more mainstream.
 
Anonymous wrote:  "There is an article in the New York Times talking about a severe shortage of drugs especially for infections.  The article also stated that since supplies were so low, people were paying sometimes 20 times, yes 20 times!!!!! the regular price.   This scares the shit out of me as my wife and son are pretty prone to getting infections and going on antibiotics.  Is this something that is going to get better or worse and will it cause a pandemic?

UrbanMan replies:  Yes, I have been keeping on top of this.  A couple friends of mine reported that their hospitals reported they "don't stock" a certain medication,...probably a political correct way of saying "we can't get it".   Viral infections can be spread causing a pandemic in the worst case, and I believe it is harder for bacterial infections to spread.  My base preparations for the increasing chances of sickness and disease is to use good hygiene; be prepared to quarantine any people you take in during a collapse;  and maximum use of nutrition and supplements to build our immune systems as a prophylaxis (preventative measure) to sickness and disease.   My base thinking is that this will not get any better unless the economy rebounds and costs of medical treatment are reduced.