Urban Survival Planning - Primer on Pandemics

Given the unpredictable behavior of influenza viruses and other diseases, neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted with any certainty. In detecting a new pandemic virus, continuous global surveillance of influenza and diseases are key to the early detection of a virus with pandemic potential and the protection protocols Urban Survivalists will need to take.

There is a network of more than 120 National Influenza Centres in over 90 countries that monitor disease and influenza activity and isolate viruses in every region of the world. National Influenza and Communicable Disease Control Centers report the detection of an “unusual” viruses immediately to the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza and Disease Control Programs and one of the five WHO Collaborating Centers. Rapid detection of unusual virus outbreaks, isolation of viruses with pandemic potential and immediate alert to WHO by national authorities is critical to a timely and efficient response.

After the scares of the H1NI and H5N1 virus this past year, which turned out to be much ado about nothing, many people think the threat is minimal. This does not mean we can dismiss this threat. We have just not seen the radically mutated viruses that we have seen in the past century. But we have also seen over and over the in-ability of the Government to respond quickly and effectively. And given the Government's vast resources and communications capability you would think it would be better. This just means that we have to responsible for our own protection. And that begins with information.

We need to be able to identify the threats and keep visibility on the spread of the viruses, symptoms and recommended Rx treatment plans, and to collate that information into your Survival Plan, be it a Bug Out Plan and/or protocols for contact with other people outside of our Survival Group. Remember, that operations planned in an information/intelligence vaccuum have a much lower chance of success.

Urban Survialists must also have the ability to protect themselves from potential pandemic threats, using sepearation from potential threats; disinfecting, sterilization, treatment and even quarantining protocols. With the community and national medical response capability tanking after a sudden collapse, disease will be rampant. Escalated by the probable mobility of large groups of people seeking safety, food and water,...the chances of an Urban Survival Group encountering infected people will be great.

As the Pandemic situation unfolds either as a catalyst for a collapse or certainly becoming a fact after a sudden economic collapse and resulting anarchy, the Suvivalist needs to understand the Medical and Health doctrine for Pandemics in order to parlay that information into the courses of action for otheir Survival Plans. When you are watching or listing to Public Service announcements via the TV or radio, or getting your information via the shortwave, be aware of the Pandemic Phases descriptions:

Phase 1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that
the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization,
communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way. During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.

Previous pandemics have been characterized by waves of activity spread over months. Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task will be to balance this information with the
possibility of another wave. Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.

In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required.

Urban Survival Planning - 5 Doomsday Scenarios for the U.S. Economy

This is an article by Derek Thompson and Daniel Indiviglio. While they are not imbedded within the Survival Prepping community, nor seem to have a real great grasp on the depths of choas that the potential for economic collapse has, but despite the title of this piece, this goes to prove even the mainstream of America are deeply concerned about the possibility of a economic collpase and therefore plunging us into chaos and a path for survival. But of course, if you are reading this site, you are already concerned and hopefully already taking prudent measures.

When I see stuff like this across the news wires on Yahoo!, Google news, and even on-line and hard copy newspapers, it motivates me to prepare just that much harder. It does take guts to be in the mainstream and write about Doomsday events, Economic Collapse and the resulting chaos from anarchy as you can very easily be seen as a nut. Most of us are past that.


It's been a brutal summer for the economy. The housing sector, like a balloon batted in the air one last time by the government credit, resumed its inevitable fall. Economic growth slowed to a lead-footed 1.6 percent, and job growth is even more anemic. Meanwhile, consumers are cranky, the trade gap is gaping.

Most signs point to a slow and steady recovery, but what if the pessimists are right, again? What if the United States isn't in the slow-lane to recovery, but rather on the precipice of another decline -- a double dip?

To see where this re-recession might begin, Dan Indiviglio and I imagined five financial earthquakes, each with a single epicenter: housing, consumers, toxic assets, Europe, and the debt. The following five scenarios are listed in order of likelihood.

1. Housing's Mini-Bubble Pops

Perhaps nothing poses as a big of a concern to the U.S. economy as its housing market. It's unclear how the government's efforts to stabilize the market through a buyer credit, ultra-low mortgage rates, and mortgage modification programs will pan out. Did it just create another mini-bubble that's beginning to pop now that the support has been withdrawn?

Here's the scenario. Weak home sales and continuing foreclosures result in climbing real estate inventory. This has two effects. First, it makes new homes even less attractive which further reduces construction jobs. Second, it puts downward pressure on home prices, which makes it harder for struggling homeowners to sell their home to avoid foreclosure and also keeps strategic default rates high, exacerbating the problem. Lower home values encourage Americans to save more and spend less, since their wealth is effectively reduced. The Dow drops and credit markets tighten even further, suffocating private investment just as homeowners bunker down and slash spending. Growth turns negative.

2. You Break the Economy

You, the American consumer, are reloading savings after a debt-fueled decade. But as any general will tell you, when an entire squad reloads at once, it leaves everybody vulnerable. It's the same with the economy.

Here's the scenario. Consumer sentiment continues to fall slowly, and spending turns negative again. Small businesses hold off to replenish their inventories or add new workers. Wages and hours freeze, and unemployment takes a leap toward 10 percent in October. Congress is paralyzed, because it's only weeks away from the mid-terms. The stock market sees business revenue trending flat, joblessness rising and Congress doing nothing, and it sparks a 300-point sell-off. Americans frightful for their savings cut back spending even more the next month, and overall growth turns negative.

3. Toxic Assets Return

If you closely followed the bank bailout, then you know it wasn't originally billed as simply throwing money at the banks. Instead, the Treasury intended to purchase the toxic assets from banks, which were the source of investors' uncertainty concerning bank stability. But the Treasury couldn't figure out a way to do this quickly enough to make it effective. As a result, the banks were largely stuck with these bad assets. We just don't know how bad, yet.

Here's the scenario. The residential real estate market's problems continue. Even once foreclosures begin to decline, we see waves of defaults, as modification program participants re-default at rates of 30% to 50%. Commercial mortgage-backed securities continue to deteriorate, as some businesses struggle with weak consumer demand. Home and commercial real estate values keep declining, and so do the value of the assets that back them. Banks with exposure to these toxic securities see another round of losses, and investors question their stability. The market plummets, credit freezes, and growth turns negative.

4. Europe Falls Apart

Europe seems to have avoided an all-out collapse of confidence in its ability to pay back its debt. But things can change, and fast fast. Indeed, the Greek debt crisis went from ignorable wire stories to front page news in a matter of days.

Here's the scenario. Slow growth in weak Eurozone states like Greece, Spain, and Italy turns negative and spooks investors, who demand higher returns on government debt. Europe's bond rates spike. Countries announce further austerity -- tax increases and spending cuts -- which strangles our biggest export market. The EU central bank responds by announcing a plan to write down troubled debt, which dings some Americans banks.

In a flight to quality debt, the dollar appreciates. This hurts our exports even more. As the trade deficit gapes open and manufacturing's good run dead ends, the stock market plummets, taking household wealth down with it. Families looking to restore balance sheets cut back on spending, and the American producer loses the American consumer and the European buyer. Growth turns negative.

5. Debt Finally Catches Up to Us

Interest rates on U.S. debt are low today for one big reason. Investors trust the United States, at least more than they trust other countries. If the people giving us money suddenly have as little faith in America as Americans, that could change, and quickly.

Here's the scenario. The IMF recently said the United States has a 25 percent chance of seeing dramatically higher interest rates in the near future. But the bond market can strike without warning, as it did in Europe earlier this year. If uncertainty with our political process gets reflected in our interest rate, we'll have a harder time affording debt, 55% of which has to be rolled over in the next three years. Pension and mutual funds with government debt would be written down, causing Americans to save even more of their paychecks. We'd be left with two bad choices: tax cuts to juice consumption or tax hikes to please our lenders. But at that point, it would be too late to avoid a double dip.

Urban Survival Planning - The Collapse That Awaits Us

One of my guys who is acutely tied into wide and collective analysis of financial issues in order to determine indicators of any collapse tells me we are just short of tipping into a full fledged economic collapse and then into chaos. I don't pretend to be smart enough to understand all the issues and co-factors that impact on the economy and a potential collapse. I'm just like probably many of you,...we know things are bad and we know they can get alot worse. Hell, that's why we are preparing. Packing Survival Bug Out Bags,....buying or loading ammunition,....Planning withdrawals to our safe areas,.....stocking survival food and collecting seeds.

I am convinced that most self sustaining Survival Preppers are not involved in the political process, other than voting, as they see no reason to hope that this headlong dive into economic oblivion can be halted with a change in government. Most see it has we have came too far, too fast to correct the National Economic azimuth and that giant iceberg called economic chaos looms just ahead.

The video below, Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis, is long but necessary to understand what we are facing and put, perhaps again, a bigger need into our preparations to survive the collapse.

Once you get past the Wheat Thins commercial in the front, as the beginning of the video actually starts at the 3 minute mark, you'll hear this quote "The clock is ticking and time is not working in our favor." This is applicable to most of our Urban Survival Preparations. Knowing that we'll never really be prepared as well as we want to be, use this as motivation to just be better prepared,...better equipped,....and refine your Survival Plan.

Urban Survival Firearms - Is the 6.8mm SPC a good Survival Collapse Cartridge

UrbanSurivalSkills.com received the following question regarding Urban Survival Firearms and choices of caliber. "Me and another Survival prepper are deciding on what gun we are going to get. I’m thinking that an M-16 type rifle in the 6.8mm cartridge would give us both firepower and stopping power. What do you think?"

Urbanman replies: The 6.8 SPC (6.8 x 43mm) due to it’s overall length and relative low chamber pressure made the M16 or AR platform adaptable to this cartridge. Although the bullet diameter is smaller, I tend to think of this cartridge like a the M43 AK round (7.62x39mm).

It is a good stopper and was developed and pushed by elements of the Army Special Forces community to replace the 5.56x45mm (.223 Remington) as small groups of Special Operators would find themselves in a "target rich environment" and the 5.56 was failing to put people down for the count. This was largely due to the SS109 bullet - steel core penetrator, which had too much penetration and did not leave all of it's energy in soft skinned targets.

The 5.56x45mm standard military round in the 62 grain SS109 configuration has a muzzle velocity of approximatley 2,700 fps depending upon barrel lengnth. The 6.8x43mm SPC round with a 115 grain bullet travels at 2,800 fps. More diameter and weight, and more velocity, give the 6.8mm SPC the edge of which round is a better stopper.

I would not begrudge anyone going to the 6.8mm round in an AR platform. The considerations would be ammunition availability and price - certainly much, much cost involved than stocking the abundant .223 Remington. The cost difference between equal amounts of rounds has to have the 6.8mm SPC costing twice as much if not more. Are you going to be to stock 4,000 rounds per gun? That's my base figure for ammunition on hand for each main long gun. I'll stick to my AR platforms and the 5.56x45mm round.

The bottom line, as I am reminded by readers all too often, is to have a long gun for these lawless survival environments; be able to use it well; and have sufficient ammunition for it. Sounds like good advice to me.