Forecasted Drought and Food Shortages Will Make the Collapse Much Worse

So what's new with a drought? Haven't we always had some sort of drought warning? Aren't we big enough as a country to mitigate drought effects? The answers Drought Forecasted

A double-barreled dose of bad news came out Thursday: Not only did the drought worsen over the last week, but it's likely to widen and intensify through the end of October, according to the seasonal outlook prepared by government forecasters.

"Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in its Seasonal Drought report."We don't see a reason to say it will improve," Kelly Helm Smith, a specialist at the National Drought Mitigation Center, told reporters. "I'm in the Midwest," she said, referring to her office at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln, "it's really unpleasant."

The outlook noted that "a dramatic shift in the weather pattern" would be required "to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this." Drought could take hold in the northern plains by October, the Climate Prediction Center added Moreover, last week saw a continued "downward spiral of drought conditions," according to the weekly report.

Adding to the drought concerns is Lester R. Brown, author of an article titled:  "The world is closer to a food crisis than most people realise".  He is the president of the Earth Policy Institute and also the author of Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity, due to be published in October

In the early spring this year, US farmers were on their way to planting some 96millon acres in corn, the most in 75 years. A warm early spring got the crop off to a great start. Analysts were predicting the largest corn harvest on record.

The United States is the leading producer and exporter of corn, the world's feedgrain. At home, corn accounts for four-fifths of the US grain harvest. Internationally, the US corn crop exceeds China's rice and wheat harvests combined. Among the big three grains – corn, wheat, and rice – corn is now the leader, with production well above that of wheat and nearly double that of rice.

The corn plant is as sensitive as it is productive. Thirsty and fast-growing, it is vulnerable to both extreme heat and drought. At elevated temperatures, the corn plant, which is normally so productive, goes into thermal shock.

As spring turned into summer, the thermometer began to rise across the corn belt. In St Louis, Missouri, in the southern corn belt, the temperature in late June and early July climbed to 100F or higher 10 days in a row. For the past several weeks, the corn belt has been blanketed with dehydrating heat.

Weekly drought maps published by the University of Nebraska show the drought-stricken area spreading across more and more of the country until, by mid-July, it engulfed virtually the entire corn belt. Soil moisture readings in the corn belt are now among the lowest ever recorded.

While temperature, rainfall, and drought serve as indirect indicators of crop growing conditions, each week the US Department of Agriculture releases a report on the actual state of the corn crop. This year the early reports were promising. On 21 May, 77% of the US corn crop was rated as good to excellent. The following week the share of the crop in this category dropped to 72%. Over the next eight weeks, it dropped to 26%, one of the lowest ratings on record. The other 74% is rated very poor to fair. And the crop is still deteriorating.

Over a span of weeks, we have seen how the more extreme weather events that come with climate change can affect food security. Since the beginning of June, corn prices have increased by nearly one half, reaching an all-time high on 19 July.

Although the world was hoping for a good US harvest to replenish dangerously low grain stocks, this is no longer on the cards. World carryover stocks of grain will fall further at the end of this crop year, making the food situation even more precarious. Food prices, already elevated, will follow the price of corn upward, quite possibly to record highs.

Not only is the current food situation deteriorating, but so is the global food system itself. We saw early signs of the unraveling in 2008 following an abrupt doubling of world grain prices. As world food prices climbed, exporting countries began restricting grain exports to keep their domestic food prices down. In response, governments of importing countries panicked. Some of them turned to buying or leasing land in other countries on which to produce food for themselves.

Welcome to the new geopolitics of food scarcity. As food supplies tighten, we are moving into a new food era, one in which it is every country for itself.

The world is in serious trouble on the food front. But there is little evidence that political leaders have yet grasped the magnitude of what is happening. The progress in reducing hunger in recent decades has been reversed. Unless we move quickly to adopt new population, energy, and water policies, the goal of eradicating hunger will remain just that.

Time is running out. The world may be much closer to an unmanageable food shortage – replete with soaring food prices, spreading food unrest, and ultimately political instability– than most people realise.

Gun Control Looming

I think I am less inclined then all of my friends and people I have worked with to buy into "conspiracy theories". A change of a few words,...a misperception,....or only hearing one side of the story or issue helps facilitate conspiracy stories. However, what was forwarded to me concerning our current adminstration's seeming dalliance with a concept called World Law really concerns me.

Most of us believe in three things:  1 - That we should not trust a government that does not trust us to own guns, and 2 - The U.S. constitution guarantees the right to own and bear guns. 

This right is necessary and central to the plans of all survivalists preparing for SHTF be it an economic collapse, total infrastructure failure or whatever label someone wants to put on The End Of The World As We Know It. 

A person I know who doesn't even own a gun sent me a link to a Lew Rockwell site referencing an article from Mac Slavo of SHTF Plan, a name all preppers and survivalists should recognize.

Five Words For the United Nations: FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS by Mac Slavo, SHTF Plan

In January of this year reports began surfacing that members of the United Nations were conspiring with American politicians to further erode the Second Amendment rights of the people of these United States: “In New York, right here on our own shores, we’ve got a Trojan horse. They won’t accept U.S. firearms policy. They want to take the decision away from the U.S. electorate and undermine our Constitution.” ~Ambassador Faith Whittlesey, US Delegate to UN Small Arms Conference, January 2012

While actions at the UN posed a serious threat to our right to bear arms, few acknowledged the legitimacy of the issue and fewer still had even heard anything about it. The Obama administration is now just a matter of weeks away from joining other foreign powers in the signing of the Arms Trade Treaty at United Nations.

While many will argue that the new treaty will not restrict gun ownership in America, 2nd Amendment proponents disagree and maintain that the new treaty could pave the way for an eventual nationwide gun grab. Dick Morris, who is spearheading a petition to stop Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the United States from signing the treaty, explains the inherent dangers within: …Obama is planning, with Hillary, a backdoor move to impose gun control on the United States. It’s totally outrageous.

You know, Obama has not pushed gun control during his administration – a notable absence for a liberal. But it’s because he was saving the best for last. Hillary is now negotiating a small arms treaty in the United Nations… The purpose of the small arms treaty is to stop small arms, which they define as pistols, handguns, rifles, assault weapons, even machine guns from being exported to other countries. … What Obama is doing with Hillary is to negotiate a treaty that would allegedly stop individual citizens and businesses from selling their arms overseas.

To do that each country would be obliged to set up its own system of registration, and controls, and inventory controls… It’s entirely a backdoor effort to force gun registration and eventually bans and restrictions with the act of the United States Congress – to do it with international treaty. One of the deadly parts about this is that when a treaty is signed and made binding in the United States it acquires the force of a Constitutional Amendment. Under the Supremacy Clause, every Congress and every state legislature has to honor that treaty, unless a Constitutional Amendment is passed to the contrary or unless all the other signatories let the U.S. out of the treaty.

Survival Firearms: Dot Scopes and Zeroing

Anonymous sent a comment on a prior article about Zeroing the M4 Carbine: ”To zero the scope, why not just keep the rear-flip-sight up and while maintaining sight alignment with the front sight, adjust the red dot to coincide with the sight alignment of the iron sights?”.

UrbanMan’s reply: What you are describing is actually how you do a mechanical zero on the dot scope before you head to the range to shoot live and adjust the scope zero from there. There are a many people who have zero’ed a lot more dot scopes than me but I have done my share. After I mount the scope, and with a rifle/carbine that have already been zero’ed with iron sights, I would do as you suggest:

With a weapon on a stable surface, I will flip up the BUIS (Back up Iron Sights) and looking through the rear sight using the smaller peep sight, I wll use the windage and elevation screws on the scope to put the top half of the dot on the top of the front sight. Again, this is a mechanical zero. You will still need to shoot live ammunition and make adjustments, mostly likely fairly small adjustments on the scope.

I received another question from Jer4421 asking ”If the EO Tech was a good scope and what reticle type I would choose.”

UrbanMan’s reply: I am aware that EO Tech has different reticles available, however I became comfortable with the circle dot reticle. Once you get used to something and get older, comfort is important.  I mainly use these three dot scope:  the EO Tech with the circle dot reticle; the standard single dot Aimpoint; and, the circle dot reticle of the Leupold CQT scope. 

However, I'd have to say I prefer the EO Tech’s scopes on a couple of my M-4’s. Both are Model 552 which are night vision compatible. I have the circle dot reticle with the 65 MOA circle and 1 MOA dot - see photo of this reticle at the top of this post.  If I had to buy another EO Tech, I would look very closely at the AR223 reticle, however I’m happy with the Model 552 and standard reticle. If you do not have a need for night vision compatibility, then you can probably save a hundred bucks or more going to the Model 512.

When I first got a Model 552 I remember being told the battery life was 70 hours. But I asked around since I received your question and 100 hours and then some seems more the norm. The EO Tech have a cut off or automatic turn off feature so in case you inadvertently leave the dot on it will turn off in 8 hours, or you can change that to 4 hours.

No matter what scope or reticle you use, the most important factor is competency born by many sweaty hours on the range making it second nature to mount the rifle/carbine, acquire a sight picture and engage your target accurately.  

But's it not just about accurate shooting.  Clearing stoppages, changing magazines, shooting from disadantaged positions,...recognizing cover and using it correctly,....and a host of other skills.  Good luck to you on your venture with dot scopes.    

America Heading Towards a Collapse

From an article titled America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! from Peter Schiff by Jeff Macke on Breakout.

According to CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff, the U.S. economy is heading for an economic crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Stimulus programs can delay this day of reckoning, but only for so long and only at the expense of making the eventual meltdown much, much worse.

Schiff, who famously warned investors about the housing and financial crisis in his 2007 book Crash Proof, says the Fed's palliative efforts during the housing meltdown have made the next crisis inevitable. "We've got a much bigger collapse coming, and not just of the markets but of the economy," Schiff says in the attached clip (see video below).

"It's like what you're seeing in Europe right now, only worse." In this nightmare scenario detailed in The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy, the current economic pause is actually the beginning of a material slowdown or recession into year end.

At that point, the Federal Reserve will unleash a third round of Quantitative Easing — weakening the dollar without jump-starting the economy. As a result of dollar weakness, import prices rise, pressing the margins of corporate America.

Lower margins lead to heavy layoffs, sending millions of workers into unemployment during a time when they can least afford it. Banks fail, housing collapses, and taxes are raised in a futile effort to give the tapped-out government the capital to try yet more futile stimulus. "That's when it really is going to get interesting, because that's when we hit our real fiscal cliff, when we're going to have to slash — and I mean slash — government spending," says Schiff.

Those cuts will not be at all unlike the draconian austerity measures in Greece, with programs like Social Security and Medicare being dramatically cut or possibly disappearing entirely. The easiest way to put it, is that everything you don't think could possibly happen in America will come to be. "Alternatively, we can bail everybody out, pretend we can print our way out of a crisis, and, instead, we have runaway inflation, or hyper-inflation, which is going to be far worse than the collapse we would have if we did the right thing and just let everything implode," he offers.

So what should investors do to protect themselves? Schiff has three suggestions:

1. Get Out of Treasuries The U.S. dollar is going to get trashed in Schiff's scenario. Locking in a yield on a government 10-year bond of 1.5% is a paltry return in the first place. Should inflation tick up to even 5%, a level much lower than that seen in the early 1980s, bond owners would have 3.5% less buying power at the end of every year. If they go to sell the bond, they'll only find buyers at a much lower price than what they paid.

2. Own the Right Stocks With bonds and the dollar bearing the brunt of the pain, Schiff says stocks will outperform dramatically, provided you own the right ones. Exporters and multi-national corporations will benefit from a weak dollar. Better still would be to buy foreign stocks and avoid the U.S. entirely.

3. Buy Silver and Gold Schiff says the recent weakness in these precious metals is just a pause as we wait for the other shoe to drop. Most of those on Main Street haven't even taken positions yet in gold or silver. Once they start dropping bonds and looking for a place to hide, the price of these metals will soar. Are you preparing for a major U.S. market and economic meltdown?