SHTF - The Bosnian Example

The below linked article is from www.Surivalistboards. I found it through a link on Chris Martenson's Daily Digest of 10/21.

I have often wrote that Survival is a Team Sport, as the tasks and necessities of survival in a collapse situation, or when SHTF if you prefer, is going to require many people. Obviously a smaller, tight knit team is better than a larger, un-disciplined group of individuals. The idea of surviving on your own, or even in a small family unit is fantasy unless you are so remote and so well stocked as to be able to pull it off. Even then, eventually the chances of running into trouble be it from an armed threat, .....or from disease, illness or injury that would require help are great.

In the reference post from www.survivalistboards, the author (Selco) talks about his experiences from Bosnia from 1992-1995. I found this quote of his quite telling: ".......and from my experience, you can not survive alone, strength is in the numbers, be close with your family, prepare with them, choose your friends wisely and prepare with them too."

Again, here is the link to the article.

Gold and Silver - Perceptions Changing

UrbanSurvivalSkills received this comment from Anonymous…… ”I remained unconvinced that buying Gold or Silver is a smart move. Historically the prices have fluctuated, caused by the filthy rich people buying and selling large amounts to make enormous profits. Anyway, the ratio of Gold to Silver is constantly changes so people can lose their ass buying silver when it will be devalued against gold. If there is a really bad SHTF situation then all commerce will be conducted by either hyper-inflated dollars or through simple barter or trade goods. I also think there are people who are not thinking clearly about what can happen and scaring them into buying Gold and Silver is doing them a disservice.”

UrbanMan’s reply: Everyone has to make up their own mind on the value of owning precious metals, Gold and Silver, or even silver coins for their silver melt value. I know people in my income group who have spent 4x or 5x the amount I have spent on Gold and Silver. Obviously they value precious metals more; think that during a collapse or SHTF situation that it will be extremely valuable to own; or they are thinking about coming out of a collapse and beginning over with a lot of wealth.

I approach buying precious metals, overwhelmingly Silver, as a hedge against the projected worthlessness of paper money during a collapse and as a way to buy necessary items when barter or trade is not feasible. While I prefer Silver not to lose it’s value as I eventually want the world to return to normal and to pass off my Silver bullion and Silver coins to my family, it does not matter too much to me if silver drops to $10 an ounce. Once an economic collapse occurs, the value will certainly rise significantly. I simply own it to be provide a possibility of commerce after SHTF. I would much rather trade in Silver than in food or ammunition.

If you don’t want to procure precious metals, primarily Silver, as a contingency during hard times then that is your business. I just think the suggestion of making this decision after considering all the facts including historically use and value or precious metals; type of collapse and after affects we may see; and your current state of preparation.

Here are some facts from http://dollarcollapse

The US Mint sells about the same dollar amount of gold and silver coins, which means it sells 50 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. UrbanMan’s notes: Today’s current prices were (approx): Gold/ounce $ 1,715.00 Silver/ounce $ 33.00 This is a near 52 to 1 ratio.

Ten times more silver than gold is produced each year, and the ratio in the earth’s crust is 15:1, so how can the price be 50:1? Expect a return to the historical norm of 15:1, which implies that silver will outperform gold.

The paper silver markets trade a billion ounces a day and the world only produces 900 million in a year. The amount available for settlement of these futures contracts is something like 1.5 million ounces, ludicrously little compared to the amount of paper. On the physical side most dealers are only seeing buyers not sellers. There are a lot more people who can afford a one-ounce silver coin than an ounce of gold.

UrbanMan’s notes: Consider this as well -

Today’s (Oct 2011) fuel prices were $3.55 a gallon and Silver is $ 33.00 an ounce. So one ounce of Silver would allow you to buy 9.3 gallons of fuel.

One year ago (Oct 2010) fuel prices were $2.90 a gallon and Silver was $ 23.00 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 7.9 gallons of fuel.

Two years ago (Oct 2009) fuel prices were $2.80 a gallon and Silver was $ 17.25 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 6.2 gallons of fuel.

One more thing: Roger Wiegand of www.TraderTracks.com posted the following alert: "Chances of a major problem in Europe have escalated. Chances of huge precious metals moves in this last quarter of 2011 are very good. I am not talking of $60 in one day but perhaps a huge run from this morning’s gold futures at $1707 all the way to +$2,000. There is no where to go with money if bad things happen in Europe except physical PM and quality related shares. I would not touch any kind of bonds and the only stocks of merit are those juniors holding 2-3 three years of corporate cash with good prospects.

Also the intermediate and larger gold companies should be protected and do well. THIS WEEKEND IN THE USA IS CRITICAL. If SOMETHING GLOBAL BAD HAPPENS. It would probably hit after the markets are closed this Friday. Again, I caution everyone to hold a minimum of one month’s cash, fuel and other provisions. This is not a game. This is very serious and in all likelihood nothing happens. But not make a mistake disregarding this apparent danger."

I hope you are not alleging that I am either scaring people into buying Silver. I have nothing to gain from this. I am simply rendering my opinion. What is right for my Survival Plan is to procure Silver both in bullion and in coins for Silver Melt value. Even then the ratio of my silver procurements is much lower than most of the other Survival Preppers I personally know. I am just trying to cover all the bases. But by and large most of my resources are going into food and other material as well as alternate energy. I have bought several solar power kits when they are on sale – and these are for barter. I have bigger units and small man portable solar power solutions for my groups own use.

EMP Radio Blog

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a tip from Anonymous.  " I've found a lot of good blogs and articles that talk about EMP. The best thing that I came across was an EMP radio blog that holds live conversations with people every Wednesday at Noon (Eastern Time.) This Wednesday (tomorrow - 26 October 2011), Lt. General (retired) Thomas McInerney is going to be on their show. It should be really great to listen to- here's the link:"


EMP Radio Blog

Growing Gangs - A Threat to SHTF Survival

I recently had a chance to read the FBI's 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment on Emerging Trends. This does not paint a rosy picture for Americans in general and Survivalists in particular, in the event of our existing enforcement infrastructure being degraded during a collapse.

Every Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) is allied with one or more U.S. based street gangs. The Mexican DTO presence is in every major American city; present in the National Forests with marijuana grows; and, the declining economy presents even a broader scope as a recruiting tool for American's, particularly our disaffected youth.

Organized gangs, organized before any SHTF event, will have an advantage from that existing organization and established networks. This makes it extremely necessary for Survivalists of all types (urban, suburban and rural) to put thought and effort in security, protective postures and building a survival team.

Click on the link above to read the entire report, otherwise the highlights I have posted below:

Executive Summary

Gangs continue to commit criminal activity, recruit new members in urban, suburban, and rural regions across the United States, and develop criminal associations that expand their influence over criminal enterprises, particularly street-level drug sales. The most notable trends for 2011 have been the overall increase in gang membership, and the expansion of criminal street gangs’ control of street-level drug sales and collaboration with rival gangs and other criminal organizations.a

Key Findings

Gangs are expanding, evolving and posing an increasing threat to US communities nationwide. Many gangs are sophisticated criminal networks with members who are violent, distribute wholesale quantities of drugs, and develop and maintain close working relationships with members and associates of transnational criminal/drug trafficking organizations. Gangs are becoming more violent while engaging in less typical and lower-risk crime, such as prostitution and white-collar crime. Gangs are more adaptable, organized, sophisticated, and opportunistic, exploiting new and advanced technology as a means to recruit, communicate discretely, target their rivals, and perpetuate their criminal activity. Based on state, local, and federal law enforcement reporting, the NGIC concludes that:

* There are approximately 1.4 million active street, prison, and OMG gang members comprising more than 33,000 gangs in the United States. Gang membership increased most significantly in the Northeast and Southeast regions, although the West and Great Lakes regions boast the highest number of gang members. Neighborhood-based gangs, hybrid gang members, and national-level gangs such as the Sureños are rapidly expanding in many jurisdictions. Many communities are also experiencing an increase in ethnic-based gangs such as African, Asian, Caribbean, and Eurasian gangs.

* Gangs are responsible for an average of 48 percent of violent crime in most jurisdictions and up to 90 percent in several others, according to NGIC analysis. Major cities and suburban areas experience the most gang-related violence. Local neighborhood-based gangs and drug crews continue to pose the most significant criminal threat in most communities. Aggressive recruitment of juveniles and immigrants, alliances and conflict between gangs, the release of incarcerated gang members from prison, advancements in technology and communication, and Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (MDTO) involvement in drug distribution have resulted in gang expansion and violence in a number of jurisdictions.

* Gangs are increasingly engaging in non-traditional gang-related crime, such as alien smuggling, human trafficking, and prostitution. Gangs are also engaging in white collar crime such as counterfeiting, identity theft, and mortgage fraud, primarily due to the high profitability and much lower visibility and risk of detection and punishment than drug and weapons trafficking.

* US-based gangs have established strong working relationships with Central American and MDTOs to perpetrate illicit cross-border activity, as well as with some organized crime groups in some regions of the United States. US-based gangs and MDTOs are establishing wide-reaching drug networks; assisting in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and illegal immigrants along the Southwest Border; and serving as enforcers for MDTO interests on the US side of the border.

* Many gang members continue to engage in gang activity while incarcerated. Family members play pivotal roles in assisting or facilitating gang activities and recruitment during a gang members’ incarceration. Gang members in some correctional facilities are adopting radical religious views while incarcerated.

* Gangs encourage members, associates, and relatives to obtain law enforcement, judiciary, or legal employment in order to gather information on rival gangs and law enforcement operations. Gang infiltration of the military continues to pose a significant criminal threat, as members of at least 53 gangs have been identified on both domestic and international military installations. Gang members who learn advanced weaponry and combat techniques in the military are at risk of employing these skills on the street when they return to their communities.

* Gang members are acquiring high-powered, military-style weapons and equipment which poses a significant threat because of the potential to engage in lethal encounters with law enforcement officers and civilians. Typically firearms are acquired through illegal purchases; straw purchases via surrogates or middle-men, and thefts from individuals, vehicles, residences and commercial establishments. Gang members also target military and law enforcement officials, facilities, and vehicles to obtain weapons, ammunition, body armor, police gear, badges, uniforms, and official identification.

* Gangs on Indian Reservations often emulate national-level gangs and adopt names and identifiers from nationally recognized urban gangs. Gang members on some Indian Reservations are associating with gang members in the community to commit crime.

* Gangs are becoming increasingly adaptable and sophisticated, employing new and advanced technology to facilitate criminal activity discreetly, enhance their criminal operations, and connect with other gang members, criminal organizations, and potential recruits nationwide and even worldwide.