Urban Survival Planning - Hyper-Inflation will precede the Collapse

A buddy of mine sent me this video from the National Inflation Association with the theory that our Government isn't stupid. He justified this by stating all the things are government has done to stave off economic disasters,....cash for clunkers, bailout of Fannie Mae and Fredie Max,...Stimlus I and II,....the bailout of AIG,.....nationalizing half of the automotive industry,.....passing Obamacare,...trying to pass Cap and Trade,....extending unemployment benefits (twice actually),....and the list goes on,...are not things a rational government does,..UNLESS they are very scared of the future economic viability of this Country, and indeed the viability of this Country as a country.

He sees it as a time buying plan and/or a plan to orient the historical record to efforts made and not results. He sees the end as a economic collapse of this Country preceded by hyper-inflation. He forecasts two scenarios a rapid collapse the speed of which as never been seen before, or less probable, a gradual collapse that will plunge this country into anarchy which will results in the Government suspended the Constitution in an effort, doomed to failure, to control the chaos.



God, I hope not, but I don't see any way out of it. His prediction mirrors that of Gonzalo Lira, although he said he has heard of Lira but not read any of his writings. But I see the writing and it is on the proverbial wall....Get prepared, have a plan and do it now.

Reader Response on Imminent Collapse

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received an Anonymous comment on the Collapse is Imminent post,….” Every morning I turn on news as I make coffee. I did this on 9/11 and sat there in my underwear watching for about an hour. I fully expect one morning to hear Israel or South Korea has been nuked or to see a grim faced Obama on the TV in the Oval office saying "My fellow Americans...". One day it will happen. I have a list of a years supply of food I will buy. I have my stored food and my cupboards are full of everyday food but if I am given notice I will go and buy from my list. I figure it will take me 4 trips through the checkout line and it will just about fill my mini-van. I intend to do it early then stop by the bank for a large withdrawal. We may not get notice of whatever it is that ends life as we know it but we just might.”

UrbanMan’s comment: I think it is problematic that you are planning on buying food, since it mans that you have not yet procured it.

Not only are mainstream television commentators such as Glenn Beck advocating the stocking on long term food supplies, the local health guy hawking crappy vitamins on the radio said the other day that he recommends everyone procuring and stocking one years worth of long term food supplies, because he see’s the collapse coming.

Understand that you are keeping a close tab on the news and therefore collapse indicators, however you risk mistiming this and be left with nothing. Even if you just buy a few days extra food when you can, then you should.

There was a news report of a Gold vending machine in Florida . Imagine a vending machine where you insert your credit card then get grams or ounces of Gold. I can imagine mutts using stolen credit cards at this machine just as fast as they can. I can imagine those machines being targets of theft. I certainly can imagine the mindset that makes this a good idea….but Gold and Silver,…..whatever you can. If all you can afford is an occasional one ounce Silver Round or some junk silver coins for their melt value, then so be it, go get it.

But what capability you do have is to buy extra food. Even if it is a couple of $1 bags of rice or black beans or bouillon cubes. Get it done now and continue doing it. Don’t take a chance on having the warning. I have been at this for a long time and constantly re-assess not on the collapse indicators, but my ability to foresee the indicators I do get and forecast the effect.

Congress has passed an extension of the Bush tax rates. It was problematic that $200 billion in un-funded spending was also added. But I think the immediate threat of a collapse happening by December 31 is greatly reduced. However the long term threat of a collapse happening in maybe the Spring of 2011 has increased since commodities prices are still going up; the U.S. debt continues to grow leaps and bounds; and the worldwide situation which will lend itself to a dollar failure is more profound. Be prepared.

Survival Firearms - A Basic Need Under Attack

The fundamentals for Surviving a collapse, be it an economic collapse, terrorist or nation-state nuclear attack or even a pandemic, are basically having Food, Shelter, Water and Protection. I know, I know,….. this doesn’t begin to describe the preparation and planning it takes to give any given a group a good chance of surviving chaos. But we do know that a gaping hole in any of these basic Survival areas will doom you.

Enter the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE) who are attempting to get authority, not previously existing, that will at least dampen our ability to purchase firearms to fill the Protection basics of Survival preparedness.

The Legislative Alert I received from the National rifle Association is as follows:

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has proposed that it be given emergency authority for six months, beginning January 5, to require about 8,500 firearms dealers along the border with Mexico “to alert authorities when they sell within five consecutive business days two or more semiautomatic rifles greater than .22 caliber with detachable magazines.” A Washington Post story reporting on the BATFE proposal described that definition as being applicable to “so-called assault weapons,” but it would also apply to many rifles that have never been labeled with that term.

The reporting requirement will apparently be imposed under the “authority” the BATFE has used in the past to demand reporting of other types of transactions from certain limited groups of dealers over the past 10 years, but the new proposal is far broader than any previous use of this authority. Of course, there's no law today that prevents dealers from reporting suspicious transactions (or attempted transactions) to the BATFE, and dealers often do so. The BATFE is also free to inspect dealers' sales records—either for annual compliance inspections or during a criminal investigation.

UrbanMan’s comment: I cannot help but see this as an invasive inroad to gun owners rights and therefore our ability to protect ourselves. The conventional wisdom that the Mexican cartels are armed from American gun shops is a lie.

Additionally, on Sunday, December 17, 2010, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer reminded Americans why it is important to vote for a president whose nominees to the court will likely be faithful to the Constitution, to vote for U.S. senators who will reject nominees who likely will not be faithful, and to vote for federal and state legislators who can check and balance justices like Stephen Breyer who don't believe the Second Amendment protects any meaningful right.

On Sunday, during an interview with Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday,” Clinton nominee Breyer, who dissented from the Supreme Court's decisions in District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) and McDonald v. Chicago (2010), claimed that the role of the court is to interpret the Constitution flexibly, in light of ever-changing circumstances. Breyer argues that the court should give consideration not to the Constitution’s “words,” but to the “values” that the Framers had in mind. Fox News’ article on the interview can be viewed here.

The Framers’ “values,” Breyer suggested, would allow a total ban on handguns in Washington, D.C. “It’s not a matter of policy, it’s a matter of what those Framers [of the Bill of Rights] intended,” he said.

What Second Amendment author James Madison intended, Breyer said, was only to prevent Congress from nationalizing state militias. That, of course, is not what Breyer said in his dissent in the Heller case. Then, Breyer said that the amendment was intended to prohibit Congress from disarming state militias.

Regardless of what Breyer was trying to sell on Sunday, Wallace didn’t seem to be buying it. Pointing out the plain language of the amendment’s “keep and bear arms” clause, Wallace asked Breyer whether, in ignoring those words, he was assuming the role of politician or policy-maker, rather than that of a judge.

Breyer grinned smugly, said “no,” and sarcastically asked whether the amendment should be interpreted to allow the ownership of machine guns and torpedoes, as well as handguns. Wallace countered that at the very least, the amendment “certainly didn’t provide for a ban on all handguns, as we have here in Washington, D.C.” To that, Breyer, still grinning, asked Wallace, “Are you a sportsman? Do you like to shoot pistols at targets? Well, get on the subway and go to Maryland.”

Realizing that Madison and the other Framers surely did not intend for the Second Amendment to mean one thing in Maryland and another in D.C., Wallace pointed out that allowing a ban on handguns in D.C. while not allowing it in Maryland would be “a policy issue, not a constitutional issue.” Breyer changed the subject.

UrbanMan’s comment: The liberal, left wing side of American politics has no given up; the fight to restrict American gun owning rights. My suggestion is to not only get into the fight by letting your Congressman and Senators know how you want them to vote, but you ought to consider getting the firearms you need now, before something happens to reduce the availability.

Urban Survival Planning - Collapse Forecast by Gonzalo Lira

I have written several times about collapse or crisis indicators and the importance of tracking these for insight into when and how severe a collapse may come, and of what type,.e.g..economic collapse, disease pandemic, etc.

Everyone who wants to be better forewarned and may even want to understand the "whys" and "what fors" associated with a probably economic collapse should add Gonzalo Lira and his blog, http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/, to their tracking list.

Lira is a novelist, filmmaker and economic analyst, sometimes also writing for Business Insider. He is clear of thought and poses his arguments well. Read pieces of what he has to say about his prediction of hyper-inflation:

So to sum up (the indicators of an impending hyper inflationary period and economic collapse), we have these (facts):

• Rising commodity prices, the effects of which (because of hedging) will be felt most severely in the period January–March of 2011.

• A beggar-thy-neighbor race-to-the-bottom Currency War, that might well devolve into a Trade War, which would force up prices on imported goods.

• A Federal Reserve that does not seem to know what it is doing, as regards another round of Quantitative Easing (printing more money deflating it's value), which is making the financial markets very nervous—nervous about the Fed’s ultimate responsibility, which is safeguarding the U.S. dollar.

• A U.S. economy that is weak to the point of collapse, where not even 0.25% interest rates are sparking investment and growth—and which therefore prohibits the Fed from raising interest rates, if need be.

• A U.S. fiscal deficit which is close to 10% of GDP annually, and which is therefore unsustainable—especially considering that the total U.S. fiscal debt is well over 100% of GDP.

These factors all point to one and the same thing: An imminent currency collapse.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:

• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.

• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.

• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.

• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyper-inflationary tipping point of 15%.

After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Lira subsequently wrote two more articles relating to hyper-inflation:

How Hyperinflation Will Happen, Monday Aug 23, 2010

Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like Thursday August 26, 2010

In the video below, Gonzalo Lira explains why severe hyperinflation is coming to the United States before the end of 2011. Lira's family personally experienced hyperinflation decades ago in his native Chile.