Urban Survival Planning - Collapse Forecast by Gonzalo Lira

I have written several times about collapse or crisis indicators and the importance of tracking these for insight into when and how severe a collapse may come, and of what type,.e.g..economic collapse, disease pandemic, etc.

Everyone who wants to be better forewarned and may even want to understand the "whys" and "what fors" associated with a probably economic collapse should add Gonzalo Lira and his blog, http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/, to their tracking list.

Lira is a novelist, filmmaker and economic analyst, sometimes also writing for Business Insider. He is clear of thought and poses his arguments well. Read pieces of what he has to say about his prediction of hyper-inflation:

So to sum up (the indicators of an impending hyper inflationary period and economic collapse), we have these (facts):

• Rising commodity prices, the effects of which (because of hedging) will be felt most severely in the period January–March of 2011.

• A beggar-thy-neighbor race-to-the-bottom Currency War, that might well devolve into a Trade War, which would force up prices on imported goods.

• A Federal Reserve that does not seem to know what it is doing, as regards another round of Quantitative Easing (printing more money deflating it's value), which is making the financial markets very nervous—nervous about the Fed’s ultimate responsibility, which is safeguarding the U.S. dollar.

• A U.S. economy that is weak to the point of collapse, where not even 0.25% interest rates are sparking investment and growth—and which therefore prohibits the Fed from raising interest rates, if need be.

• A U.S. fiscal deficit which is close to 10% of GDP annually, and which is therefore unsustainable—especially considering that the total U.S. fiscal debt is well over 100% of GDP.

These factors all point to one and the same thing: An imminent currency collapse.

Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:

• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.

• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.

• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.

• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyper-inflationary tipping point of 15%.

After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.

What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”

However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.

Lira subsequently wrote two more articles relating to hyper-inflation:

How Hyperinflation Will Happen, Monday Aug 23, 2010

Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like Thursday August 26, 2010

In the video below, Gonzalo Lira explains why severe hyperinflation is coming to the United States before the end of 2011. Lira's family personally experienced hyperinflation decades ago in his native Chile.

Urban Survival Planning - Silver prices skyrocket!

I hope you have not missed the opportunity to purchase a supply of silver and perhaps gold. I tend to talk about silver much more than gold, as it is the poor’s man precious metal and I think much more useable as a currency in the collapse.

The chart shows since December 2009 to present day. It went from a low of $15.14 in December 2009 (one year ago) to over $30 an ounce and now back down to $29.06 on December 14, 2010. Do not make the mistake and think it’s too late to buy Silver bullion rounds or bars. You are going to need it.

It is interesting to note that a recent poll of financial planners indicate that as high as 90% of them own physical Gold and Silver - this is Gold and Silver owned and in the physical custody of the person, not some paper Gold or Silver certificate shares. Think they know something we don't?

As goes the price of silver the same for the silver melt value of any coins you may have collected. The trick is to know the silver content value relative to one ounce. You can print this and store this with your coins and silver bullion to be better prepared to assess the value for trade or barter purposes.

Based on the Silver Value of $ 29.06 per ounce, as of December 14, 2010

Silver Coins Year of Issue
Coin Face Values Silver Coin Values

Jefferson War Nickels 1942-1945
$ 0.05 $ 1.63

Mercury Dimes 1916-1945
$ 0.10 $ 2.10

Roosevelt Dimes 1946-1964
$ 0.10 $ 2.10

Washington Quarters 1932-1964
$ 0.25 $ 5.26

Walking Liberty Half Dollars 1916-1947
$ 0.50 $ 10.51

Franklin Half Dollars 1948-1963
$ 0.50 $ 10.51

Kennedy Half Dollars 1964
$ 0.50 $ 10.51

Kennedy Half Dollar 1965-1970
$ 0.50 $ 4.30

Morgan Dollars 1878-1921
$ 1.00 $ 22.48

Peace Dollars 1921-1935
$ 1.00 $ 22.48

Get some silver now!

Urban Survival Firearms - Weapons Training from Viking Tactics

We talk a lot about the necessary items for survival: food, shelter, packing Bug Out Bags, developing a bug out plan, procuring survival equipment/gear and of course, alot of talk goes into survival firearms. What we don't talk very much about is the training required to be proficient in using firearms, or weapons if you prefer.

People have asked me to give them an idea on how skilled they need to be. I really hesitate to address this. Imagine if I wrote a series of skill standards, maybe something to the effect "the Survivalist must be able to load a magazine, charge the weapon and engage four targets with one round, at one each target at ranges of 25 yards, 50 yards, 75 yards and 100 yards, in 10 seconds keeping all his rounds on target". Well the difficultly in establishing a training and performance standard while considering all different types of firearms and the different capabilities and restrictions of the shooters would be immense.

However, I would suggest that everyone develop and increase their proficiency as much as their resources (time and money) allow. Attendance at any number of shooting schools is a great place to start. Joining gun clubs and competing in many diverse firearms competitions from International Practical Shooting Confederation (IPSC), to the International Defensive Pistol Association (IDPA), to Rimfire and Centerfire Bullseye competition, maybe Metallic Silhouette shooting or any number of other shooting disciplines are also an excellent place to learn and grow your skills.

Some people learn by seeing what is possible than training to replicate that skill. The below video is from Viking Tactics. I won't go into deal on the background of Kyle Lamb, owner of Viking Tactics, but suffice it to say he is probably the best in the world,...yes, the best in the world at what he does.
It is almost impossible to get a slot in one of his classes,...but you can try,..the next best thing is to look at his videos and see what is possible.



Additional videos can be viewed from Kyle's You Tube channel:

The book, "Green Eyes and Black Rifles", is a classic and needs to be in everyone's library even if you do not own an AR.

Urban Survival: Reader Response on Collapse is Imminent

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a good response from a reader on the post that a Collapse before end of the year is likely if Congress doesn't act in a responsible manner, or perhaps we have passed the point of no return. A reader wrote: I liked the article on preparing like the collapse is imminent or coming by Christmas/New Year. This is how I have been thinking the past two months. I am cautioning myself not to get burnt out on acting like the collapse is coming next week or the week after, as the result will be becoming too relaxed.

So I am considering my current actions as a mental exercise and a rehearsal for when it actually does comes. There is not such thing as being too ready, but I think this exercise is worthwhile, but there is such a thing as being too focused then becoming burnt out. I listening to the news during my travel to and from my office (I work for an insurance firm). At work I open several web sites, yours (UrbanSurvivalSkills.com) among them, so I can glance at the RSS feeds on finances
and markets, and read any new posts.

I have changed the schedule to our office meeting to Wednesday as I think the prime dates for a collapse to become apparent are Mondays and Fridays. I have a small television which I keep on Fox News for any breaking stories (God Bless 24/7 cable television). All of these measures serve to keep me tuned into the latest news so I can surmise if something significant is happening.

Most Fridays I stop at K-Mart or Wal-Mart and buy a couple items that come to mind,...more cigarette lighters, bags of peanuts or other small dried items that I vacuum pack then wrap in plastic shopping bags then place in old paint buckets that I obtained dumpster diving at Home Depot - note they come without lids but I buy Gamma Lids; occasionally I walk through the sporting goods section and find something that I have forgotten or something that tells me "this is a good thing to have" and lately I picked up a waterproof container for stick matches, a small shaving mirror, a couple collapsible cups and a folding camp stool.

This exercise of stopping at the Wal-Mart, for me, is like your last trip to the store before fiat money becomes worthless. Although when I do it for real it will be for as much food as I can load, carry or buy. So maybe for your readers the exercise is the collapse has just hit, stores are still open and fiat money is still used,...what will you buy? How much cash do you have on hand?

I am not in a survival family or group. It's me and my wife. It took me several months of talking to my wife for her to understand the needs to prepare at some level. She just doesn't buy into the possibility of worse case - anarchy. She has looked sideways at me with buying a couple guns the past year. I have a CZ-75 handgun in 9 millimeter and a Remington model 750 rifle in .308, as well as a little bolt action .22 long rifle and a 20 gauge pump shotgun. Not a lot compared to your other readers, but at least I'm not unarmed. Good site thanks for the information I have read in the past couple of months.)

UrbanMan's reply: Thanks for the letter. I think you are on track with the mental exercises and rehearsals. It is kinda problematic that you and your wife are along as I have always said "Survival is a Team Sport". However, I don't know anything about the environment you are in and any other threat factors you may have.

I would urge you to have a Bug Out plan to a safe location,..perhaps a relative or friend with a remote cabin or farm? Since you are lightly armed I would also consider ensuring your wife can operate all firearms and that you have an adequate stock of ammunition. Two boxes (40 rounds) of .308 for your Remington rifle would not be even a minimal stockage.

Roger your question on what you buy if the collapse hit now and are you prepared with some cash on hand with may be acceptable just after the electronic means (credit and debit cards) are kaput, but certainly not for long.

I think your best advice came from the news and RSS feeds to look at periodically through the day as to not be surprised. That's a good way to keep on top and track of indicators of a collapse. Thanks for writing and God Speed.