Survival Planning - More on EMP Threat

Recently came across a November 28th report from World Net Daily (WND), written by Bob Unruh, entitled "Report Warns Obama about 'new' Dark Ages -Airplanes would fall from sky, cars would stop, networks fail".

I don't think there is alot lot more you can do to prepare for EMP if you are board with a Survival Preparation plan already for contingencies such as socio-economic collapse. EMP would certainly cause a total collapse of the infrastructure, but nobody really has an idea on just how prolific the affected areas would be. I have bolded some of the more interesting parts of this article.

The WND Article:

Two national-security experts have issued a report through the Heritage Foundation that warns Obama administration officials to start working now to prevent – and mitigate the damage from – an electromagnetic pulse attack on the United States because of the potential for "unimaginable devastation."

"Not even a global humanitarian effort would be enough to keep hundreds of millions of Americans from death by starvation, exposure, or lack of medicine. Nor would the catastrophe stop at U.S. borders. Most of Canada would be devastated, too, as its infrastructure is integrated with the U.S. power grid. Much of the world's intellectual brain power (half of it is in the United States) would be lost as well. Earth would most likely recede into the 'new' Dark Ages," states the report by James J. Carafano, the deputy director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, and Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Politial-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute.

The report, which is described by the Heritage Foundation as a "backgrounder," is titled "EMP Attacks – What the U.S. Must Do Now" and was released just days ago, says what is needed right now is for the government to "prevent the threat," by pursuing "an aggressive protect-and-defend strategy, including comprehensive missile defense; modernizing the U.S. nuclear deterrent; and adopting proactive nonproliferation and counterproliferation measures."

Further, measures are needed to add to the "resilience" of the electrical grid and telecommunications systems, including duplicating some essential functions, and "robust" pre-disaster planning should be going on now for "federal, state, local private-sector, non-government organizations and international support," the report said.

Especially, the nation needs to work to "protect the capacity to communicate," the report explains.

"An EMP strike can easily obliterate America 's electrical, telecommunications, transportation, financial, food,and water infrastructures, rendering the United States helpless to coordinate actions and deliver services essential for daily life," says the report.

"In the words of Arizona Sen. John Kyl, EMP 'is one of only a few ways that the United States could be defeated by its enemies.' The time to prepare is now!"

The new report echoes the warnings carried in a story first broken in WND five years ago about a blue-ribbon commission appointed by Congress to investigate the impact of an EMP attack on the U.S.

An EMP catastrophe, which scientists have warned also could come through a naturally occurring Coronal Mass Ejection from the sun, largely is feared to come from an act of war from an enemy. If there is a nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere over North America the resulting electromagnetic discharge can "permanently disable the electrical systems that run nearly all civilian and military infrastructures," the report said.

"A massive EMP attack on the United States would produce almost unimaginable devastation. Communications would collapse, transportation would halt, and electrical power would simply be non-existent," the report warns.

"All past calamities of the modern era would pale in comparison to the catastrophe caused by a successful high-altitude EMP strike," the report said. "The effects of EMP will immediately disable a portion of the 130 million cars and some 90 million trucks. Since millions of vehicles are on the road at any given time, there will be accidents and congestion that will impede movement…. The U.S. rail network depends directly on electricity. … America 's aviation industry will be destroyed…. The U.S. food infrastructure depends heavily on the transportation sector," it warns.

William R. Graham, chairman of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack and the former national science adviser to President Reagan, previously testified before Congress and issued an alarming report on "one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences."

He identified vulnerabilities in the nation's critical infrastructures that "are essential to both our civilian and military capabilities."

Not taking the steps necessary to reduce the threat "can both invite and reward attack," Graham told the members of Congress at the time.

He described that the attack would come like a swift stroke of lightning, and would immediately disrupt and damage all electronic systems and America 's electrical infrastructure.

A detonation over the middle of the continental U.S. "has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures that support the fabric of U.S. society and the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power," said Graham.

"Several potential adversaries have the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear-weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse, and others appear to be pursuing efforts to obtain that capability," said Graham.

"A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. For example, an adversary would not have to have long-range ballistic missiles to conduct an EMP attack against the United States. Such an attack could be launched from a freighter off the U.S. coast using a short- or medium-range missile to loft a nuclear warhead to high altitude. Terrorists sponsored by a rogue state could attempt to execute such an attack without revealing the identity of the perpetrators. Iran, the world's leading sponsor of international terrorism, has practiced launching a mobile ballistic missile from a vessel in the Caspian Sea. Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shahab-III, a test mode consistent with EMP attack, and described the tests as successful. Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States . While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots."

The new Heritage Foundation report echoed those concerns.

"Even with farsighted mitigation measures there is little question that a nationwide EMP attack would be crippling," it warned. "Thus, while pursuing mitigation, the U.S. should take all possible measures to protect and defend the nation against a ballistic-missile attack that could be used to deliver an EMP strike, as well as pursue aggressive counter-proliferation measures against rogue states developing nuclear weapons."

The report warns such an attack would turn science fiction into reality.

"Airplanes would literally fall from the sky, cars and trucks would stop working, and water, sewer, and electrical networks would fail. Food would rot, medical services would collapse, and transportation would become almost nonexistent," it explains.

The report warned that one criticality is to develop domestic sources for replacement equipment for the electric equipment, transformers and substations that would be damaged.

"The equipment used in the transmission grid is costly, specially produced, and has to be ordered from overseas … Those with the expertise to replace transformers and capacitors are likely to be overwhelmed…"

What would happen already has been documented, the report noted, in the 1977 New York City blackout, although on a much smaller scale.

"Two lightning strikes caused overloading in the electrical power substations of the Con Edison power company. These lighting strikes, the equivalent of a minuscule fraction of [EMP], caused the Indian Point power plant north of the city to fail, as well as the subsequent failure of the Long Island interconnection. … Failure of the Linden-Goethals 230,000-volt interconnection with New Jersey resulted in the protective devices removing overloaded lines, transformers, and cables from service. As a result, a power failure spread throughout the New York area. This blackout lasted only one day, yet resulted in widespread looting and the breakdown of the rule of law throughout many New York neighborhoods. The estimated cost of the blackout was approximately $246 million, and nearly 3,000 people were arrested through the 26-hour period," the report said.

"The blackout in New York City resulted in an immediate breakdown of the social order. The police were outmatched and had no chance of stopping such massive theft, largely having no choice but to stand by watching the looters from a distance. In North Brooklyn , a community of more than a million residents, only 189 police officers were on duty…."

In 2003, a blackout in Ohio , New York , Maryland , Pennsylvania , Michigan and Canada saw "massive traffic jams and gridlock when people tried to get home without traffic lights. … Railways, airlines, gas stations, and oil refineries halted operations. Telephone lines were overwhelmed due to the high volume of calls. Overall, the blackout's economic impact was between $7 billion and $10 billion due to food spoilage, lost production, overtime wages…"

A true EMP attack, the report said, "could prove even more severe."

Further, major disruptions will happen in communications, financial and other computer-dependent parts of society.

Peter Vincent Pry, chief of EMPact America , said the world this past summer dodged a bullet – in the form of a massive solar flare.

The results of that naturally occurring even could be very similar to a nuclear-caused EMP attack, he said.

"The last 'great' geomagnetic storm was in 1859, called the Carrington event. Modern civilization, so dependent upon electronic systems, has not yet experienced a 'great' geomagnetic storm. Many scientists think we are overdue," he wrote. "Some scientists believe that, as we approach the solar maximum over the next two years, since the solar maximum brings increased solar flare activity, the possibility of a "great" geomagnetic storm will also increase."

Survival Firearms and Ammunition - Response to Reader Comment on Ammunition Prices

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a comment from ksbsnowowl, concerning a previous post on Stocking Ammunition and links to ammunition sources,....”Your price for 1000 rounds of 5.56 is a bit high. You can find 500 round cases of Federal XM193 for $140, plus shipping.

UrbanMan reply: Ammunition availability, prices and deals ebb and flow. In other words, prices and availability change all the time. The buyer needs to do his own research to find the best provider at the best price. Some people will pay a little extra to deal with companies they have a relationship with.

I posted a couple deals from Natchez Shooters Supply and Cheaper Than Dirt from e-mails that I receive because I do business with these companies and am on a e-mail distro list. I also do business with Sportsman Guide. However, I do NOT have a financial relationship with any of the aforementioned companies.

I routinely get asked for the best sources for ammunition. My reply is usually to give our various company names and let the potential buyer do his own research and ordering. There are a lot of “off brand” ammunition makers out there. I prefer to buy a common named brand and will pay higher prices. Bottom line – let the buyer beware.

Regards and be safe all.

Urban Survival Firearms - Reader's Rifle Choice

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comment from an Anonymous reader,…..”Hey survivalskills, great site and LOADS of information. I have an civilian AK-47 and an SKS and also own my baby which is a Colt Gold Cup. Do you think I should stick to guns in the same caliber as the AK-47? I will have a total of 6 adults at my house when the SHTF and need to pickup a couple more guns. I'm thinking about another AK rifle for magazine exchanges.”

UrbanMan replies: By all means the Kalashnikov rifle in it’s various AK-47 and AKM variants and the Simonov Carbine (SKS) are reliable weapons and great survival platforms. Both fire the same ammunition, the M43 Russian round, also known as the 7.62x39mm although you can find the AK series in .223 Remington as well as the newer 5.45x39.5 mm Russian round. I have one, civilian copy of the AKM, bit it is regulated to backup duty and just in case I need to outfit (arm) a new Survival Team member. I think if you pickup another AK rifle, then I would rather have one with the screwed in barrel as opposed to the cheaper manufactured pinned barrel.

The SKS is different than the AK and uses a hinged semi-fixed box magazine. But a great reliable gun none the less and considerably cheaper. If my entire Survival Group was primarily armed with the SKS, I would not feel out equipped.

But here’s the deal. Standardization of Survival Firearms is a two edged sword. I have written about this several other times, mostly in response to reader questions. On one hand the same ammunition and the same magazines are great. It reduces training time, can reduce procurement costs, and, can foster a team environment for the Survival group. On the other hand, the AK series and SKS carbines are not the most accurate rifles or battle rifles (carbines) available. And are not the best choice for certain applications. The magazines are heavy, as is the ammunition.

I have no idea on your other preparations but would caution you to not place all your survival preparation into guns. While I would certainly consider at least a long gun for all Survival Team members a necessity, I would also want stored food, stored non-hybrid seeds, other survival gear to include durable field clothing, boots, sleeping bags, rucks, and personal kit as well as prepared Bug Out Bags,…I also place priority importance on a plan.

But back to Survival guns. Don’t know if you are trying to outfit all the members (the 6 adults you mention) of your Survival Group. Maybe they can buy or procure their own guns. Even a long barreled shotgun (preferably in 12 gauge) is a great Survival weapons and tool (bird hunting don’t you know). I am not saying buy cheap guns in order to ensure that all your Survival Group members have long guns for defense and security, but I would not hinge all my Survival Firearms planning and procurement on necessarily buying all the same weapon.

A good reason to have a mix of firearms is ammunition availability for the long term. Imagine you had a standard weapon for your Survival Group, but in a caliber than once you ran low or even ran out of stored ammunition, it was unavailable for purchase or barter. Having Survival Firearms in common calibers is a good thing. Shotguns in 12 gauge, .22 LR pistols and rifles, .357 Magnum (.38 Special), 9mm Luger, .223Remington, .308 Winchester and .30-06 are all very common calibers. You can, of course, stockpile tens of thousands of rounds to ensure you always have it on hand, but refer back to my paragraph on the other, often over looked, Survival Gear and Equipment.

Hope this helps. It will at least give you some things to think about. Good luck and prepare well my friend.

Be Prepared to Bug In

In the previous post I wrote about the necessity of having a Survival Bug Out Plan which will define your Bug Out Bag requirements. In fact the Bug Out Plan should be modeled using PACE planning principles. PACE - Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency, is simply a principle to address several ways to accomplish the same objective.

PACE can be applied to Survival equipment, such as fire starting tools for example. How many of you only have one lighter, or one magnesium fire starter? I would bet that most of us have a bunch of these very necessary tools. Apply PACE to a Survival Bug Out Plan and you would have several different routes and different safe locations to Bug Out to. This plan may also include meeting places (called Rally Points or linkup points) where members of your family or Survival Group can link up if separated during movement, or if Bugging Out from different start points.

Yet again, I end up write paragraphs until finally beginning my main point which is do not place all your planning and preparation on immediately Bugging Out. Imagine the guy who has a rifle, a Bug Out and visualization on Bugging Out and looters and mobs, but has not place to go and no planned route to get there. I know several people like that, Some of them write to me as well.

What if circumstances based on the threat situation, martial law, missing survival group members, weather conditions, injuries or sickness or a host of other reasons makes it necessary to remain in your residence until it is safe to execute your Survival Bug Out Plan to your Safe Location?

Hopefully, your entire Survival Plan is NOT dependent upon grabbing your BOB and rifle and skedalling. Imagine a group of looters camping in your block,...think about what you would need to remain in your residence before the coast is clear. Defensive measures, food and water stocks, waste management, power and light sources are all categories to think about and plan for.

How are you going to blackout your residence so outsiders do not see the light from your lantern or flashlight? What are you going to do if you look out the window and see four, shot out flat tires on your vehicle which you planned on taking to a friends farm and therefore safe location 200 miles away?

Do you have enough food and water for a few weeks (or maybe even longer) to wait out the situation until it is possible to Bug Out?
Do you have escape routes, other than your front door, in case you cannot defend the residence and are forced to evacuate? What about a fire? Molotov cocktails are easy to make and if looters cannot get to you they may try to burn you out.

Anyway, to be complete, think about situations and circumstances that may force you to stay when you otherwise detailed Survival Bug Out Plan is to go immediately.