UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received this PM on facebook: "Hey Urban Man, just wanted to drop you a note and tell you my latest acquisitions to augment my already well equipped Bug Out plan."
"I'm at the point right now that that I can slow down on my survival purchasing, so (as) I meander through the internet and Survival blogs, I pickup tips on new gear that people think they will find useful. I have over 12 months of stored long term food (long term) not counting a pantry which I could live probably two months on. I have all the guns and ammunition that I'll need. I have plenty of camping supplies such as sleeping bags, cooking equipment and things like that."
"I recently bought the following nice to have Survival items and thought you may want to comment on them:"
A Propane Tank Gauge. In case I come across abandoned propane tanks, so am offered some in barter, I can determine how much fuel is left in it. This gauge takes up a very small amount of room in a pack or my Bug Out Bag.
A Wireless Driveway Sensor. Uses a "C" battery for the sensor and 9 volt battery for the receiver and is good for 400 yards. Not only can I use this to cover an area to alert against intruders, it's portable so I can include this at my base I have.
A Truck Tent. My Bug Out Of Town Plan is shared by two of my friends. We all have pickup trucks available. I bought this truck tent, that fits into the bed of the truck, so we can set up sleeping accommodations at temporary sites and still be really mobile if we have to. I figure we'll never have more than a couple people sleeping due to having to post some guards, that's why I only bought one.
Merrel Moab Mids hiking boots. These are great boots! I traded my camouflaged uniform for some solid color pants upon your suggestions months ago. So these boots do not look like military or cop footwear and are really great hiking and climbing boots.
Portable Air Compressor. This uses a 12v battery like those cordless drills. I can recharge the battery through my vehicle or a wall socket. We'll also be taking pedal bicycles so we can use this to repair or air up bike tires.
Sheeps skin lined booties. It gets COLD where I am going. I wanted something that I can wear when sleeping but still able to get up and run or fight or whatever. Also I think they would come in handy for people sitting at a fixed site providing security for the rest of us.
When I first starting preparing. Some of my friends called me "Kanik the Wanderer" because I was buying all this camping and hiking stuff. Two of these friends are now in my survival planning group, but they still call me Kanik the Wanderer.
UrbanMan replies: Dear Kanik,....all great ideas. Never thought about a Propane Gauge, now I'm going to get one. I think any wireless, battery operated early warning devices are a good addition to your kit as well, especially if it is mobile enough to take with you during a hasty Bug Out. Thanks for the ideas.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Urban Survival - New Information on the Mayan Calendar
This article was written by Stephanie Pappas, a LiveScience Senior Writer from LiveScience.com and it came out on the web 19 October 2012.
End of the Earth Postponed.
It's a good news/bad news situation for believers in the 2012 Mayan apocalypse. The good news is that the Mayan "Long Count" calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012 (and, by extension, the world may not end along with it). The bad news for prophecy believers? If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will - or if it has already.
A new critique, published as a chapter in the new textbook "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" (Oxbow Books, 2010), argues that the accepted conversions of dates from Mayan to the modern calendar may be off by as much as 50 or 100 years. That would throw the supposed and overhyped 2012 apocalypse off by decades and cast into doubt the dates of historical Mayan events. (The doomsday worries are based on the fact that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, much as our year ends on Dec. 31.)
The Mayan calendar was converted to today's Gregorian calendar using a calculation called the GMT constant, named for the last initials of three early Mayanist researchers. Much of the work emphasized dates recovered from colonial documents that were written in the Mayan language in the Latin alphabet, according to the chapter's author, Gerardo Aldana, University of California , Santa Barbara professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies.
Later, the GMT constant was bolstered by American linguist and anthropologist Floyd Lounsbury, who used data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a Mayan calendar and almanac that charts dates relative to the movements of Venus. "He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant," Aldana said in a statement. "Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct."
But according to Aldana, Lounsbury's evidence is far from irrefutable. "If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the FMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data," he said. That historical data, he said, is less reliable than the Table itself, causing the argument for the GMT constant to fall "like a stack of cards." Aldana doesn't have any answers as to what the correct calendar conversion might be, preferring to focus on why the current interpretation may be wrong. Looks like end-of-the-world theorists may need to find another ancient calendar on which to pin their apocalyptic hopes.
Now I just know some of you are saying “Darn!”. While others are saying “Now that I have don’t have that timeline, I have more time to prepare”,…….maybe,…maybe not.
It's a good news/bad news situation for believers in the 2012 Mayan apocalypse. The good news is that the Mayan "Long Count" calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012 (and, by extension, the world may not end along with it). The bad news for prophecy believers? If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will - or if it has already.
A new critique, published as a chapter in the new textbook "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" (Oxbow Books, 2010), argues that the accepted conversions of dates from Mayan to the modern calendar may be off by as much as 50 or 100 years. That would throw the supposed and overhyped 2012 apocalypse off by decades and cast into doubt the dates of historical Mayan events. (The doomsday worries are based on the fact that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, much as our year ends on Dec. 31.)
The Mayan calendar was converted to today's Gregorian calendar using a calculation called the GMT constant, named for the last initials of three early Mayanist researchers. Much of the work emphasized dates recovered from colonial documents that were written in the Mayan language in the Latin alphabet, according to the chapter's author, Gerardo Aldana, University of California , Santa Barbara professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies.
Later, the GMT constant was bolstered by American linguist and anthropologist Floyd Lounsbury, who used data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a Mayan calendar and almanac that charts dates relative to the movements of Venus. "He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant," Aldana said in a statement. "Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct."
But according to Aldana, Lounsbury's evidence is far from irrefutable. "If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the FMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data," he said. That historical data, he said, is less reliable than the Table itself, causing the argument for the GMT constant to fall "like a stack of cards." Aldana doesn't have any answers as to what the correct calendar conversion might be, preferring to focus on why the current interpretation may be wrong. Looks like end-of-the-world theorists may need to find another ancient calendar on which to pin their apocalyptic hopes.
Now I just know some of you are saying “Darn!”. While others are saying “Now that I have don’t have that timeline, I have more time to prepare”,…….maybe,…maybe not.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
More Back and Forth on Societal - Economic Collapse
We continue the back and forth with the Anonymous Reader who commented again on the Societal Collapse post:
I mostly agree with you about cities (big cities), but I do think if the crisis is "only" an economic collapse that we won't lose fire & law enforcement, hospitals, grocery stores, etc. So while Los Angeles or NY City might be dramatically more dangerous I do not think most cities, especially the smaller ones will be. However if we are talking about something far worse then all bets are off.
UrbanMan: I think an economic collapse can be gradual, like a slow sink into an economic depression with an alike gradual scarcity of foodstuffs and other commodities – and this would be the best case for survival, especially for people unprepared as the gradual slope from bad to worse would allow them some time to prepare….not the best case scenario, but one that would give the unprepared the best chance. I also think there is the chance of a dynamic economic collapse that would be devastating for the people caught unprepared. Be it from an dedicated EMP attack or EMP after effects from a nuclear attack; or a computer generated attack against cyber banking and financial systems. The threat to urban dwellers survival and security is linked to how quick the food supply dwindles and how long utilities stay on. Once water and electric are compromised, life in the urban areas will be as well, and an exodus to places perceived to be better off will transpire. I have seen some of these mass migration models and they are not pretty. I would suggest the Urban Survivalist as well as the rural based Survivalist conduct their own mass migration studies based on avenues of approach and likely destinations out of major population centers in order to better situate themselves at their safe locations.
I totally agree that another great depression will have worse consequences with our larger mostly urban population. I think it will be especially difficult for those on welfare because we would have to assume that a lot of these benefits would be slashed. Where I disagree is the who "have's" vs "have nots". Most of us here in the U.S. are middle class. Even poor people on welfare have more money, benefits and goods then the middle class in Europe does. Most of the poor people I know have two cars, three color TV's, air conditioners and eat steak a couple times a week. The few who are rich don't mingle with you and I and while it may irritate you that they are rich it makes ZERO difference in your life or how you live today or even after a depression. If they were poor tomorrow it wouldn't help you or me or the situation. So people will indeed be angry that their cushy lives have changed for the worse but there won't be any "have's" around to take it out on.
UrbanMan replies: I agree that a lot if not most people in the U.S. are “middle class”,….right now. I am really scared for my children’s future in a growing government juggernaut that just sucks up resources without providing product. Going the way we are heading now, most of the tax payments will go for government salaries,…I’m only half joking. The economically disadvantaged are increasing; the amount of people on welfare are increasing and the government, at some point, is not going to be able to pay for it. Combined with the people just above the poverty line and those that will be dragged down into this level, I see a large percentage of the population as becoming “have nots”. If and when the food and utilities run out or become so sporadic as to be ineffective, I would think anarchy will result. Nobody hopes this will not be the case more than me, so my pattern has been to prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
I do think we are today looking at the best last chance any people or any country has ever had. That is we can see this coming and we more or less know what to expect. But we could go to the store today and buy all of the necessities and it is relatively inexpensive. You can go out today and buy a years supply of canned, dried and fresh food and you could even use a credit card. Everyone should at least buy a years supply of food and necessities and store them in a closet, basement or garage. We don't have to go into this crisis like the people in New Orleans did.
UrbanMan replies: I agree with everything in your last paragraph. So do most of the people reading this site, or the host of other Survival Preparation sites on the web.
I mostly agree with you about cities (big cities), but I do think if the crisis is "only" an economic collapse that we won't lose fire & law enforcement, hospitals, grocery stores, etc. So while Los Angeles or NY City might be dramatically more dangerous I do not think most cities, especially the smaller ones will be. However if we are talking about something far worse then all bets are off.
UrbanMan: I think an economic collapse can be gradual, like a slow sink into an economic depression with an alike gradual scarcity of foodstuffs and other commodities – and this would be the best case for survival, especially for people unprepared as the gradual slope from bad to worse would allow them some time to prepare….not the best case scenario, but one that would give the unprepared the best chance. I also think there is the chance of a dynamic economic collapse that would be devastating for the people caught unprepared. Be it from an dedicated EMP attack or EMP after effects from a nuclear attack; or a computer generated attack against cyber banking and financial systems. The threat to urban dwellers survival and security is linked to how quick the food supply dwindles and how long utilities stay on. Once water and electric are compromised, life in the urban areas will be as well, and an exodus to places perceived to be better off will transpire. I have seen some of these mass migration models and they are not pretty. I would suggest the Urban Survivalist as well as the rural based Survivalist conduct their own mass migration studies based on avenues of approach and likely destinations out of major population centers in order to better situate themselves at their safe locations.
I totally agree that another great depression will have worse consequences with our larger mostly urban population. I think it will be especially difficult for those on welfare because we would have to assume that a lot of these benefits would be slashed. Where I disagree is the who "have's" vs "have nots". Most of us here in the U.S. are middle class. Even poor people on welfare have more money, benefits and goods then the middle class in Europe does. Most of the poor people I know have two cars, three color TV's, air conditioners and eat steak a couple times a week. The few who are rich don't mingle with you and I and while it may irritate you that they are rich it makes ZERO difference in your life or how you live today or even after a depression. If they were poor tomorrow it wouldn't help you or me or the situation. So people will indeed be angry that their cushy lives have changed for the worse but there won't be any "have's" around to take it out on.
UrbanMan replies: I agree that a lot if not most people in the U.S. are “middle class”,….right now. I am really scared for my children’s future in a growing government juggernaut that just sucks up resources without providing product. Going the way we are heading now, most of the tax payments will go for government salaries,…I’m only half joking. The economically disadvantaged are increasing; the amount of people on welfare are increasing and the government, at some point, is not going to be able to pay for it. Combined with the people just above the poverty line and those that will be dragged down into this level, I see a large percentage of the population as becoming “have nots”. If and when the food and utilities run out or become so sporadic as to be ineffective, I would think anarchy will result. Nobody hopes this will not be the case more than me, so my pattern has been to prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
I do think we are today looking at the best last chance any people or any country has ever had. That is we can see this coming and we more or less know what to expect. But we could go to the store today and buy all of the necessities and it is relatively inexpensive. You can go out today and buy a years supply of canned, dried and fresh food and you could even use a credit card. Everyone should at least buy a years supply of food and necessities and store them in a closet, basement or garage. We don't have to go into this crisis like the people in New Orleans did.
UrbanMan replies: I agree with everything in your last paragraph. So do most of the people reading this site, or the host of other Survival Preparation sites on the web.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Urban Survival and Societal Collapse - Reader Comments
UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a long comment from Anonymous regarding the post "Societal Collapse - Part 2: Poverty, Chronically Ill....":
Good comments from a thinking person and they deserve return comments from me not only from what I disagree with but what I agree on. Anonymous' comments are in Italics.
He's guessing based on worse case. Argentina is a reasonable model of a economic collapse and virtually everything he talks about simply did not happen. Some cities will be problematic or more correctly have pockets of problem areas but most cities will ba as safe as the countryside is. I'm not saying it will be just as safe as today but that it won't be an huge difference and leaving the city won't make you safe. In fact the only real difference is if the bad guy gets you in the country he has more time to do bad things because there is no one around to catch him or stop him.
UrbanMan replies: I have to disagree somewhat here. The cities may be as safe as rural areas but only for so long. After a undetermined time period food is going to scare. Some people may have to move to the Government run FEMA type camps in order to survive - these will be the unprepared people. I have also said that Survival is a Team Sport and you have to have a prepared plan. Having a rural location to move to and meet with other alike minded people is going to much safer. I would agree that moving to the country won't make you safer unless you have a Survival Group to rely on and have a plan and are prepared to survive there, food, water and security wise.
An economic collapse will be very much like the great depression. Lots of problems and not enough food and necessities but people will still continue to live their lives and take care of their needs as best they can. As far as disease is concerned unless you are talking about a pandemic and not an economic collapse disease is unlikely to be a major factor. Yes, people who are already seriously ill will be at risk, but healthy people won't just get sick and die.
UrbanMan replies: I'm thinking that another great depression will be much worse than the 1930's, since we have a much more highly mobile population; the population is much greater in density; instant communications via cell phones and the internet will influence the population; and, the United States is much less capable to feed our own population than we were in the 1930's. I think that with a 27% increase in people on food stamps and a 34% increase in people on unemployment benefits, we now have the largest gap in the "have's" and the "have nots", and that combined with the cultural shift over the past several decades into an entitliest society creates a giant potential for anarchy upon a economic collapse.
One of the problems is knowing what is going to happen. No one knows. We can guess and then guess what the result might be but no one knows.
UrbanMan replies: Roger on the know one knows. I think you have to wargame against the possible and probable threats to your survival which boil down to two things: Subsistence (water and food) and Security.
One thing this guys forgets as he tries to conflate the New Orleans experience with an economic collapse: Most people did in fact get the hell out of New Orleans and took care of themselves. Most of those who stayed were already on some form of welfare and had never in their lives "taken care of themselves". If you are expecting the government to provide then you will be very disappointed. But the government will most likely do what it can considering the scope of the problem another great depression would cause.
UrbanMan replies: You are right on New Orleans and the people waiting for the government to take care of them - should be a lesson to us all. I have worked for the government for over three decades. I have little faith in the government's ability to take care of the population and in fact I think the government will likely be the cause of the economic collapse.
Good comments from a thinking person and they deserve return comments from me not only from what I disagree with but what I agree on. Anonymous' comments are in Italics.
He's guessing based on worse case. Argentina is a reasonable model of a economic collapse and virtually everything he talks about simply did not happen. Some cities will be problematic or more correctly have pockets of problem areas but most cities will ba as safe as the countryside is. I'm not saying it will be just as safe as today but that it won't be an huge difference and leaving the city won't make you safe. In fact the only real difference is if the bad guy gets you in the country he has more time to do bad things because there is no one around to catch him or stop him.
UrbanMan replies: I have to disagree somewhat here. The cities may be as safe as rural areas but only for so long. After a undetermined time period food is going to scare. Some people may have to move to the Government run FEMA type camps in order to survive - these will be the unprepared people. I have also said that Survival is a Team Sport and you have to have a prepared plan. Having a rural location to move to and meet with other alike minded people is going to much safer. I would agree that moving to the country won't make you safer unless you have a Survival Group to rely on and have a plan and are prepared to survive there, food, water and security wise.
An economic collapse will be very much like the great depression. Lots of problems and not enough food and necessities but people will still continue to live their lives and take care of their needs as best they can. As far as disease is concerned unless you are talking about a pandemic and not an economic collapse disease is unlikely to be a major factor. Yes, people who are already seriously ill will be at risk, but healthy people won't just get sick and die.
UrbanMan replies: I'm thinking that another great depression will be much worse than the 1930's, since we have a much more highly mobile population; the population is much greater in density; instant communications via cell phones and the internet will influence the population; and, the United States is much less capable to feed our own population than we were in the 1930's. I think that with a 27% increase in people on food stamps and a 34% increase in people on unemployment benefits, we now have the largest gap in the "have's" and the "have nots", and that combined with the cultural shift over the past several decades into an entitliest society creates a giant potential for anarchy upon a economic collapse.
One of the problems is knowing what is going to happen. No one knows. We can guess and then guess what the result might be but no one knows.
UrbanMan replies: Roger on the know one knows. I think you have to wargame against the possible and probable threats to your survival which boil down to two things: Subsistence (water and food) and Security.
One thing this guys forgets as he tries to conflate the New Orleans experience with an economic collapse: Most people did in fact get the hell out of New Orleans and took care of themselves. Most of those who stayed were already on some form of welfare and had never in their lives "taken care of themselves". If you are expecting the government to provide then you will be very disappointed. But the government will most likely do what it can considering the scope of the problem another great depression would cause.
UrbanMan replies: You are right on New Orleans and the people waiting for the government to take care of them - should be a lesson to us all. I have worked for the government for over three decades. I have little faith in the government's ability to take care of the population and in fact I think the government will likely be the cause of the economic collapse.
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