Urban Survival - New Information on the Mayan Calendar

This article was written by Stephanie Pappas, a LiveScience Senior Writer from LiveScience.com and it came out on the web 19 October 2012.

End of the Earth Postponed.

It's a good news/bad news situation for believers in the 2012 Mayan apocalypse. The good news is that the Mayan "Long Count" calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012 (and, by extension, the world may not end along with it). The bad news for prophecy believers? If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will - or if it has already.

A new critique, published as a chapter in the new textbook "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" (Oxbow Books, 2010), argues that the accepted conversions of dates from Mayan to the modern calendar may be off by as much as 50 or 100 years. That would throw the supposed and overhyped 2012 apocalypse off by decades and cast into doubt the dates of historical Mayan events. (The doomsday worries are based on the fact that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, much as our year ends on Dec. 31.)

The Mayan calendar was converted to today's Gregorian calendar using a calculation called the GMT constant, named for the last initials of three early Mayanist researchers. Much of the work emphasized dates recovered from colonial documents that were written in the Mayan language in the Latin alphabet, according to the chapter's author, Gerardo Aldana, University of California , Santa Barbara professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies.

Later, the GMT constant was bolstered by American linguist and anthropologist Floyd Lounsbury, who used data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a Mayan calendar and almanac that charts dates relative to the movements of Venus. "He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant," Aldana said in a statement. "Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct."

But according to Aldana, Lounsbury's evidence is far from irrefutable. "If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the FMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data," he said. That historical data, he said, is less reliable than the Table itself, causing the argument for the GMT constant to fall "like a stack of cards." Aldana doesn't have any answers as to what the correct calendar conversion might be, preferring to focus on why the current interpretation may be wrong. Looks like end-of-the-world theorists may need to find another ancient calendar on which to pin their apocalyptic hopes.

Now I just know some of you are saying “Darn!”. While others are saying “Now that I have don’t have that timeline, I have more time to prepare”,…….maybe,…maybe not.

More Back and Forth on Societal - Economic Collapse

We continue the back and forth with the Anonymous Reader who commented again on the Societal Collapse post:

I mostly agree with you about cities (big cities), but I do think if the crisis is "only" an economic collapse that we won't lose fire & law enforcement, hospitals, grocery stores, etc. So while Los Angeles or NY City might be dramatically more dangerous I do not think most cities, especially the smaller ones will be. However if we are talking about something far worse then all bets are off.

UrbanMan: I think an economic collapse can be gradual, like a slow sink into an economic depression with an alike gradual scarcity of foodstuffs and other commodities – and this would be the best case for survival, especially for people unprepared as the gradual slope from bad to worse would allow them some time to prepare….not the best case scenario, but one that would give the unprepared the best chance. I also think there is the chance of a dynamic economic collapse that would be devastating for the people caught unprepared. Be it from an dedicated EMP attack or EMP after effects from a nuclear attack; or a computer generated attack against cyber banking and financial systems. The threat to urban dwellers survival and security is linked to how quick the food supply dwindles and how long utilities stay on. Once water and electric are compromised, life in the urban areas will be as well, and an exodus to places perceived to be better off will transpire. I have seen some of these mass migration models and they are not pretty. I would suggest the Urban Survivalist as well as the rural based Survivalist conduct their own mass migration studies based on avenues of approach and likely destinations out of major population centers in order to better situate themselves at their safe locations.

I totally agree that another great depression will have worse consequences with our larger mostly urban population. I think it will be especially difficult for those on welfare because we would have to assume that a lot of these benefits would be slashed. Where I disagree is the who "have's" vs "have nots". Most of us here in the U.S. are middle class. Even poor people on welfare have more money, benefits and goods then the middle class in Europe does. Most of the poor people I know have two cars, three color TV's, air conditioners and eat steak a couple times a week. The few who are rich don't mingle with you and I and while it may irritate you that they are rich it makes ZERO difference in your life or how you live today or even after a depression. If they were poor tomorrow it wouldn't help you or me or the situation. So people will indeed be angry that their cushy lives have changed for the worse but there won't be any "have's" around to take it out on.

UrbanMan replies: I agree that a lot if not most people in the U.S. are “middle class”,….right now. I am really scared for my children’s future in a growing government juggernaut that just sucks up resources without providing product. Going the way we are heading now, most of the tax payments will go for government salaries,…I’m only half joking. The economically disadvantaged are increasing; the amount of people on welfare are increasing and the government, at some point, is not going to be able to pay for it. Combined with the people just above the poverty line and those that will be dragged down into this level, I see a large percentage of the population as becoming “have nots”. If and when the food and utilities run out or become so sporadic as to be ineffective, I would think anarchy will result. Nobody hopes this will not be the case more than me, so my pattern has been to prepare for the worse, hope for the best.

I do think we are today looking at the best last chance any people or any country has ever had. That is we can see this coming and we more or less know what to expect. But we could go to the store today and buy all of the necessities and it is relatively inexpensive. You can go out today and buy a years supply of canned, dried and fresh food and you could even use a credit card. Everyone should at least buy a years supply of food and necessities and store them in a closet, basement or garage. We don't have to go into this crisis like the people in New Orleans did.

UrbanMan replies: I agree with everything in your last paragraph. So do most of the people reading this site, or the host of other Survival Preparation sites on the web.

Urban Survival and Societal Collapse - Reader Comments

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a long comment from Anonymous regarding the post "Societal Collapse - Part 2: Poverty, Chronically Ill....":

Good comments from a thinking person and they deserve return comments from me not only from what I disagree with but what I agree on. Anonymous' comments are in Italics.

He's guessing based on worse case. Argentina is a reasonable model of a economic collapse and virtually everything he talks about simply did not happen. Some cities will be problematic or more correctly have pockets of problem areas but most cities will ba as safe as the countryside is. I'm not saying it will be just as safe as today but that it won't be an huge difference and leaving the city won't make you safe. In fact the only real difference is if the bad guy gets you in the country he has more time to do bad things because there is no one around to catch him or stop him.

UrbanMan replies: I have to disagree somewhat here. The cities may be as safe as rural areas but only for so long. After a undetermined time period food is going to scare. Some people may have to move to the Government run FEMA type camps in order to survive - these will be the unprepared people. I have also said that Survival is a Team Sport and you have to have a prepared plan. Having a rural location to move to and meet with other alike minded people is going to much safer. I would agree that moving to the country won't make you safer unless you have a Survival Group to rely on and have a plan and are prepared to survive there, food, water and security wise.

An economic collapse will be very much like the great depression. Lots of problems and not enough food and necessities but people will still continue to live their lives and take care of their needs as best they can. As far as disease is concerned unless you are talking about a pandemic and not an economic collapse disease is unlikely to be a major factor. Yes, people who are already seriously ill will be at risk, but healthy people won't just get sick and die.

UrbanMan replies: I'm thinking that another great depression will be much worse than the 1930's, since we have a much more highly mobile population; the population is much greater in density; instant communications via cell phones and the internet will influence the population; and, the United States is much less capable to feed our own population than we were in the 1930's. I think that with a 27% increase in people on food stamps and a 34% increase in people on unemployment benefits, we now have the largest gap in the "have's" and the "have nots", and that combined with the cultural shift over the past several decades into an entitliest society creates a giant potential for anarchy upon a economic collapse.

One of the problems is knowing what is going to happen. No one knows. We can guess and then guess what the result might be but no one knows.

UrbanMan replies: Roger on the know one knows. I think you have to wargame against the possible and probable threats to your survival which boil down to two things: Subsistence (water and food) and Security.

One thing this guys forgets as he tries to conflate the New Orleans experience with an economic collapse: Most people did in fact get the hell out of New Orleans and took care of themselves. Most of those who stayed were already on some form of welfare and had never in their lives "taken care of themselves". If you are expecting the government to provide then you will be very disappointed. But the government will most likely do what it can considering the scope of the problem another great depression would cause.

UrbanMan replies: You are right on New Orleans and the people waiting for the government to take care of them - should be a lesson to us all. I have worked for the government for over three decades. I have little faith in the government's ability to take care of the population and in fact I think the government will likely be the cause of the economic collapse.

Urban Survival Firearms - M1 Garands from the Civilian Marksmanship Program

This may not be common knowledge to all people, but the Civilian Marksmanship Program still exists. And it is still possible to obtain a service rifle such as an M1 Garand and sometimes even M1 Carbines become available. At times, ammunition at great prices are available.

CMP RIFLE SALES. The federal law that established the CMP authorizes it to sell surplus military .22 rimfire and .30 cal. rifles and ammunition to qualified U. S. citizens who are members of gun clubs affiliated with the CMP. All purchasers must provide proof of having received gun safety or marksmanship training and pass an FBI NICS check. The principal rifles sold through this program have been WWII era M1 Garand rifles and WWI era M1903 rifles. The law mandates that proceeds from these sales may be used only to support the Civilian Marksmanship Program. Each year since its establishment in 1996, the CMP has produced an excess of revenues over expenses to fund its firearm safety, marksmanship training and competition programs and an endowment that will support future programs.

For information rifle sales go to: http://www.thecmp.org/

The Civilian Marksmanship Program (CMP) is a national organization dedicated to training and educating U. S. citizens in responsible uses of firearms and airguns through gun safety training, marksmanship training and competitions. The CMP is a federally chartered 501 (c) (3) corporation that places its highest priority on serving youth through gun safety and marksmanship activities that encourage personal growth and build life skills. Links on this page will lead you to more detailed information about the CMP and its programs.

STATUTORY MISSION. The federal law enacted in 1996 (Title 36 U. S. Code, 0701-40733) that created the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice and Firearms Safety, Inc. (CPRPFS, the formal legal name of the CMP) mandates these key “functions for the corporation:

(1) To instruct citizens of the United States in marksmanship;
(2) To promote practice and safety in the use of firearms;
(3) To conduct competitions in the use of firearms and to award trophies, prizes, badges, and other insignia to competitors.

The law specifically states: In carrying out the Civilian Marksmanship Program, the corporation shall give priority to activities that benefit firearms safety, training, and competition for youth and that reach as many youth participants as possible.

Some of the latest news from CMP:

WINCHESTER SERVICE GRADE M1 GARAND. The CMP now has several hundred Winchester M1 Garand rifles for sale. Please visit http://www.thecmp.org/m1garand.htm . Item number is RM1WRAS. Price is $795 plus $22.95 S&H.

CMP SALES AT THE 2010 WESTERN CMP GAMES. The Western CMP Games and Creedmoor Cup Match combine to offer an unprecedented nine-day series of clinics, recreation-oriented "as-issued" military rifle matches and national-class service and match rifle competitions with the best highpower rifle shooters in the country. The event will take place 16-24 October at the Ben Avery Shooting Facility, Phoenix , AZ. The Official Program and on-line registration are posted at http://www.odcmp.com/competitions/westerngames.htm. M1 Garand rifles will be available for selection and subsequent purchase. Memorabilia, new rifle barrels, gun cases, bayonets, rifle stocks, and ammunition will be available for immediate purchase.

M1 CARBINES SOLD OUT. The CMP is now sold out of M1 carbines except for the few we will still be selling on our auction program. http://auction.odcmp.com/auctions/index.asp. At this time, we have no reason to expect to receive any additional quantities of carbines.

The Urban Survivor could do alot worse than an old service grade M1 Garand Rifle as his primary survival firearm.