UrbanSurvivalSkills.com, since our inception, has been counseling on Survival Planners having a list of indicators that would precede and foretell the coming collapse. The idea is this list is self developed; based on factors and indicators you think are important to identify the near term coming collapse; and, should consider all factors – social, economic - financial and political.
UrbanMan uses a lot of financial sources, probably none more credible that Leeds who we have hyperlinked to this site just below the title.
Sandy Leeds, CFA is a Senior Lecturer at The University of Texas at Austin . He teaches graduate level classes in the MBA program and also serves as President of The MBA Investment Fund, L.L.C. Prior to teaching, he had careers as a lawyer and a money manager. He did his undergraduate work at The University of Alabama and also has a law degree from The University of Virginia and an MBA from the University of Texas . At UT, he has received many teaching awards, including Outstanding Professor in the MBA Program. He is married and has three children.
Leeds’ latest article, go to here: http://leedsonfinance.com/2010/09/21/ideas-about-a-debt-crisis/
Talks about the debt crisis and why you should be worried,…and if you are worried you should be preparing maybe just alittle more.
This is Leeds’ article in his words:
Here are a few quick points why you should be worried about the US :
1. By 2040, the US ’ debt-to-GDP ratio will be 425% (according to the BIS). This estimate is worse than the estimates for Portugal , Italy , Ireland and Greece.
2. We can only print money to solve the problem if we don’t mind inflation.
3. Even if you adjust for the effects of the economic cycle and you exclude interest payments, the US has a -7.3% structural budget deficit.
4. If the US wanted to reduce our debt-to-GDP to 60% by 2030, we would need to have a fiscal adjustment (lower spending or higher taxes) of 8.8% of GDP. While that might sound like a small number, realize that our tax revenue is approximately 18% of GDP.
Factors That Cause a Debt Crisis
1. Excessively large debt (pretty obvious).
2. Excessive dependence on foreign capital (which may flee).
3. Economic weakness (the debt-to GDP ratio grows if GDP is stagnant).
4. Political weakness (excessive spending and insufficient taxation).
5. Irrational exuberance (b/c investors don’t learn about the risks of debt from the past).
In the US , we could argue that we’re five-for-five (on these factors).
Six Ways Out of a Debt Crisis
1. Higher GDP growth.
2. Lower interest rates (to reduce impact of excess debt).
3. Bailout – capital from abroad.
4. Raising taxes / cutting spending.
5. Inflation (printing money).
6. Default.
Here’s a quick summary of these six exit strategies. The US is too mature for high growth. Eventually, risk premiums make low rates impossible. We’re too large to be bailed out. We don’t have the political will to cut spending or raise taxes. We’re unlikely to default (b/c we can print money). So, high inflation seems likely.
Key Lessons From History
1. Governments do not cut spending or entitlements. Similarly, they do not reduce taxes to stimulate growth. They do not tax consumption to stimulate savings. They do not grow their way out of the problem (without defaulting or depreciating).
2. Governments encourage central banks and commercial banks to load up on government debt. They often discourage foreign investment so that investors are left with little choice but buying domestic debt. They tend to default on commitments to weaker creditor groups. They condemn bond investors to negative real returns (through inflation).
3. Not all debt crises are the same. We have issued much short-term debt – so rates may rise ahead of inflation. We could have high rates in a deflationary period! This may mean that inflating our way out of the problem won’t work and we would have to default.
See…short and sweet. I didn’t clutter this report with any reason to be optimistic.
end of Leed's article.
In our view, this makes more certain and hastens the growing gap between the haves and the have nots, which is another way of declaring the extinction of the American middle Class. What happens when there are 30 million, 60 million or 50 million have nots who cannot afford to live?
Monday, September 27, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
WIlderness Survival - Sword of Survival website
It looks to be a new site, maybe a couple of months old, with the demonstrator seemingly doing all the videos himself. Really informal, but the information is good. I’ll be looking at this site from time to time, to refresh myself with old and mostly forgotten wilderness survival skills. Good reference for those who have never been trained in wilderness survival.
Go to: http://www.swordofsurvival.com/
In fact, everyone, whether they are planning to Survive a Coming Collapse in an Urban Environment or from a lavish and well protected Survival Compound in some remote part of the country, should still develop skills for surviving with minimal equipment in the wilderness.
UrbanSurvivalSkills.com published an article on what we considered a basic list of wilderness survival type skills, go here to see this article. One could print the list of skills from this article and “work them off” as you train on them.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Urban Survival - Tactical Movement on Foot
UrbanMan received this request from an UrbanSurvivalSkills.com reader: “Could you do a post on how to move in a group through the woods? It is predominantly for me and my family, maybe my sister's brother and his wife would be with us, if and when we vacate our home and if our vehicle goes down or transport by car is not possible. If I had to vacate my house and move to my friends rural farm I would need to move through the woods about 29-30 miles, then parallel a state road about 30-35 miles to get to the two roads that lead to my friend’s farm where it’s another 16-18 miles.”
UrbanMan replies: You have the right idea wanting to learn how to move in the woods or really any type of terrain for that matter. Aside from very specific techniques and procedures, otherwise called Standard Operating Procedures or SOP’s, tactical movement is a function combining common sense, awareness of the situation and of the environment, and just plain being cautious.
Movement techniques must be known by all in your group and regularly practiced in order to be effective. People spend years learning how to plan and conduct a small unit patrol. I cannot do that justice in one post, however I will attempt to cover some basics of movement.
Things you will have to consider when moving, above food, water and what else you are packing, are light, noise and litter discipline, and, control of your movement formation. Ensuring that all shiny objects that you and others are wearing, which will reflect the sun or artificial light are reduced or removed; use red filters on flashlights or be very careful when you use a white light and then consider using one only under a poncho or blanket; talk to your members of your group either using hand and arm signals or by whispering in their ear (sound carries more than your think!);……ensure you and your group does not leave litter behind that someone can track you by or otherwise learn of your presence or passage.
Looks like you may be moving 75 to 83 miles. Your movement rate, under good conditions is going to be .5 to 1.5 miles an hour if you want to move in a cautious tactical manner, stopping for a 5 to 10 minute blow every hour and to do map/navigation checks, check and treat people's feet, adjust loads and just to sit and listen for what is going on around you.
If you move at 1 mile per hour, you can probably move 12 miles a day then it will take you at least 6 days to get where you are going. Figuring on a minimum of 3 quarts of water per person per day that's almost 20 pounds of water weight per person starting off. Remember 3 quarts per person would be an absolute minimum,... a more realistic number is 5 quarts per person per day which would be 30 pounds of water weight.
Movement formations. There are really only two basic movement formations you should be using:
The Column or File formation (think single file) is the easiest formation to control. Interval (or distance) between patrol members should be no further than what sight allows – you need to be able to see the man in front of you and behind you. Relatively speaking, this interval will be as close as a couple feet during periods of darkness, with minimal lunar illumination, to as long as maybe 15 to 20 yards. In very open areas, that distance may increase to 25-35 yards. The idea is not to have two people (or more) needless close to each other where it would be easy to shoot two or more easily,...or have a booby trap or other casualty producing device hurt more than is necessary. Plus people close together tend to talk,...when you talk, people can hear....remember noise discipline.
The point man is the navigator and picks the route, the tail gunner ensures dangers to the rear are picked up; everyone else watches the sides of the column. Same thing when you stop, assign everyone a area to watch.
Wedge Formation. This is a arrowhead or triangle type formation used to move across a wider area, and best used when contact with a potentially or known adversary is expected. Using the wedge and making contact with bad guys to your front allows for more than one person to engage and defend the group at a time (clear fields of fire). This is also a good formation, albeit at extended intervals between members, when crossing an large open field if you have to. From the Wedge formation you can easily establish a skirmish line and either fight/move forward or withdrawal with all guns in your patrol having the ability to fire without a friendly in front of them.
The Wedge formation is much harder to control, especially in heavy brush or thickly wooded areas. Members of the patrol in this movement formation need to not only be concerned with their respective area of responsibility during movement, but will have to constantly adjust their route to keep the interval and contact with other patrol members.
Crossing Linear Danger Areas: Whenever you cross linear dangers areas, which will be roads, power line trails, dirt roads, game trails or natural lines of drift you will need to be extra careful, in both ensuring that there is no traffic or observation on this linear open area, and, careful to sterilize signs of your passage as much as you can. Cross these linear danger areas in one line so the tail gunner can more easily sterilize the signs and foot prints of your passage.
A careful way to cross these danger areas is to send one or two people across to reconnoiter (that is a fancy way of saying "recon") the other side. A speedier way is call "Scroll to the Road" or the bump method, where one person briefly stops facing down one way of the linear danger area where he or she is "bumped" by the person behind him which is the cue to cross, then face the opposite direction in order to provide observation and security in both directions.
After each linear danger area you cross, hesitate for enough time for the tail gunner to sterilize signs of crossing. The person in front of the tail gunner provides security for the tail gunner as he/she does this. If you are going to stop for a blow (rest) don't do it adjacent or near to a linear danger area you crossed.
Crossing Large, Irregular Shaped Danger areas. Really only three practical ways to negotiate a large, irregular danger area such as a large farm or field. Extended file formation. Wedge formation,....or to avoid the danger area by skirting it.
Stopping for an extended time or through a period of daylight or night. Since it is practically impossible to avoid leaving signs of your passage, one way to give you some security against people following you is to buttonhook off your route of movement into a defensive or ambush position. This is a good idea when stopping for extended times such as a remain over day (ROD) or remain over night (RON) position to rest. Ensure that you defensive ROD or RON position allows you to observe your original trail and have a patrol member (or two) positioning to watch the trail coming into to your ROD/RON.
UrbanMan replies: You have the right idea wanting to learn how to move in the woods or really any type of terrain for that matter. Aside from very specific techniques and procedures, otherwise called Standard Operating Procedures or SOP’s, tactical movement is a function combining common sense, awareness of the situation and of the environment, and just plain being cautious.
Movement techniques must be known by all in your group and regularly practiced in order to be effective. People spend years learning how to plan and conduct a small unit patrol. I cannot do that justice in one post, however I will attempt to cover some basics of movement.
Things you will have to consider when moving, above food, water and what else you are packing, are light, noise and litter discipline, and, control of your movement formation. Ensuring that all shiny objects that you and others are wearing, which will reflect the sun or artificial light are reduced or removed; use red filters on flashlights or be very careful when you use a white light and then consider using one only under a poncho or blanket; talk to your members of your group either using hand and arm signals or by whispering in their ear (sound carries more than your think!);……ensure you and your group does not leave litter behind that someone can track you by or otherwise learn of your presence or passage.
Looks like you may be moving 75 to 83 miles. Your movement rate, under good conditions is going to be .5 to 1.5 miles an hour if you want to move in a cautious tactical manner, stopping for a 5 to 10 minute blow every hour and to do map/navigation checks, check and treat people's feet, adjust loads and just to sit and listen for what is going on around you.
If you move at 1 mile per hour, you can probably move 12 miles a day then it will take you at least 6 days to get where you are going. Figuring on a minimum of 3 quarts of water per person per day that's almost 20 pounds of water weight per person starting off. Remember 3 quarts per person would be an absolute minimum,... a more realistic number is 5 quarts per person per day which would be 30 pounds of water weight.
Movement formations. There are really only two basic movement formations you should be using:
The Column or File formation (think single file) is the easiest formation to control. Interval (or distance) between patrol members should be no further than what sight allows – you need to be able to see the man in front of you and behind you. Relatively speaking, this interval will be as close as a couple feet during periods of darkness, with minimal lunar illumination, to as long as maybe 15 to 20 yards. In very open areas, that distance may increase to 25-35 yards. The idea is not to have two people (or more) needless close to each other where it would be easy to shoot two or more easily,...or have a booby trap or other casualty producing device hurt more than is necessary. Plus people close together tend to talk,...when you talk, people can hear....remember noise discipline.
The point man is the navigator and picks the route, the tail gunner ensures dangers to the rear are picked up; everyone else watches the sides of the column. Same thing when you stop, assign everyone a area to watch.
Wedge Formation. This is a arrowhead or triangle type formation used to move across a wider area, and best used when contact with a potentially or known adversary is expected. Using the wedge and making contact with bad guys to your front allows for more than one person to engage and defend the group at a time (clear fields of fire). This is also a good formation, albeit at extended intervals between members, when crossing an large open field if you have to. From the Wedge formation you can easily establish a skirmish line and either fight/move forward or withdrawal with all guns in your patrol having the ability to fire without a friendly in front of them.
The Wedge formation is much harder to control, especially in heavy brush or thickly wooded areas. Members of the patrol in this movement formation need to not only be concerned with their respective area of responsibility during movement, but will have to constantly adjust their route to keep the interval and contact with other patrol members.
Crossing Linear Danger Areas: Whenever you cross linear dangers areas, which will be roads, power line trails, dirt roads, game trails or natural lines of drift you will need to be extra careful, in both ensuring that there is no traffic or observation on this linear open area, and, careful to sterilize signs of your passage as much as you can. Cross these linear danger areas in one line so the tail gunner can more easily sterilize the signs and foot prints of your passage.
A careful way to cross these danger areas is to send one or two people across to reconnoiter (that is a fancy way of saying "recon") the other side. A speedier way is call "Scroll to the Road" or the bump method, where one person briefly stops facing down one way of the linear danger area where he or she is "bumped" by the person behind him which is the cue to cross, then face the opposite direction in order to provide observation and security in both directions.
After each linear danger area you cross, hesitate for enough time for the tail gunner to sterilize signs of crossing. The person in front of the tail gunner provides security for the tail gunner as he/she does this. If you are going to stop for a blow (rest) don't do it adjacent or near to a linear danger area you crossed.
Crossing Large, Irregular Shaped Danger areas. Really only three practical ways to negotiate a large, irregular danger area such as a large farm or field. Extended file formation. Wedge formation,....or to avoid the danger area by skirting it.
Stopping for an extended time or through a period of daylight or night. Since it is practically impossible to avoid leaving signs of your passage, one way to give you some security against people following you is to buttonhook off your route of movement into a defensive or ambush position. This is a good idea when stopping for extended times such as a remain over day (ROD) or remain over night (RON) position to rest. Ensure that you defensive ROD or RON position allows you to observe your original trail and have a patrol member (or two) positioning to watch the trail coming into to your ROD/RON.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Urban Survival Skills Reader Disagrees with Survival - Collapse Book Choices
UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comments on the previous post concerning the two best Survival – Collapse Books to read,…..”Anonymous said,…..Shame on you for not including Lights Out. This is a exceptional story and taught me alot of survival in an upheaval. Good story to just read and enjoy also. One Second after was a sorry story and did not teach me anything.”
UrbanMan replies: Lights Out is an absolute must read. I just think it’s third in line and the other reader asked me to just recommend two.
In Lights Out, you would have to admit that things go pretty well for the main characters,…having a buddy who owns a gun store and MILVAN’s full of ammunition and guns a their house…..having grocery stores stay open well past when the EMP generated Nuclear attack occurs, and having a car parts store open long after the collapse as well.
Sorry you did not learn anything from One Second After. I guess I tend to learn from negative things as much or more than positive teaching. The things I learned from One Second After, albeit from what they didn’t do, are:
1. Be prepared from the get go. Food, Water, Survival gear, equipment and material.
2. Have more firearms (and ammunition) than just some black powder guns.
3. If you are not organized into a Survival Group before the collapse predicating event, then that becomes a priority to do. If you have to start small, then start small. Organized the neighbors on your left and right, then the street,….. then the people on adjacent streets. People are going to be looking for a leader. Be that leader to get them squared away with as minimal waste of time and resources as possible.
4. Have a plan for when the infrastructure collapse in regards to necessary prescriptions and medications, and how to store them.
Note: I know of a guy who is on dialysis. This particular type of dialysis can be done at home using bags hooked up to a body catheter. This is a nightly requirement,….he’ll die without it. Knowing that this gentleman has stocked six months of the bags he needs, plus he can go to a once every two days dialysis schedule in order to extend his dialysis capability.
If you are diabetic, what are you doing to do? The percentage of people that are diabetic is increasing every year. As you’ll remember one of the character’s in One Second After dies from lack of insulin. The sad fact about having adult on-set diabetes is that this is a highly reversible condition, if you have the gumption to stick to a diet of low glycemic foods and advanced doses of nutritionals.
What else I learned from One Second After:
5. Be prepared to address food supplies and rationing from the start. The characters in One Second After should have immediately started growing crops and building green houses.
6. Develop a communications and alert system with a plan on how to provide security and defend the community - which would be a logical extension from the group organizational priority.
This is my short list of what I learned. I hope it lets you reconsider the value of One Second After. The negative learning concept is something watching your buddy stick his hand down a hole and he gets his hand shredded by a sharp toothed badger. You see it and say to yourself “Heck,…I’m not going to stick my hand down there like he did!”…… so you learned from his bad example.
UrbanMan replies: Lights Out is an absolute must read. I just think it’s third in line and the other reader asked me to just recommend two.
In Lights Out, you would have to admit that things go pretty well for the main characters,…having a buddy who owns a gun store and MILVAN’s full of ammunition and guns a their house…..having grocery stores stay open well past when the EMP generated Nuclear attack occurs, and having a car parts store open long after the collapse as well.
Sorry you did not learn anything from One Second After. I guess I tend to learn from negative things as much or more than positive teaching. The things I learned from One Second After, albeit from what they didn’t do, are:
1. Be prepared from the get go. Food, Water, Survival gear, equipment and material.
2. Have more firearms (and ammunition) than just some black powder guns.
3. If you are not organized into a Survival Group before the collapse predicating event, then that becomes a priority to do. If you have to start small, then start small. Organized the neighbors on your left and right, then the street,….. then the people on adjacent streets. People are going to be looking for a leader. Be that leader to get them squared away with as minimal waste of time and resources as possible.
4. Have a plan for when the infrastructure collapse in regards to necessary prescriptions and medications, and how to store them.
Note: I know of a guy who is on dialysis. This particular type of dialysis can be done at home using bags hooked up to a body catheter. This is a nightly requirement,….he’ll die without it. Knowing that this gentleman has stocked six months of the bags he needs, plus he can go to a once every two days dialysis schedule in order to extend his dialysis capability.
If you are diabetic, what are you doing to do? The percentage of people that are diabetic is increasing every year. As you’ll remember one of the character’s in One Second After dies from lack of insulin. The sad fact about having adult on-set diabetes is that this is a highly reversible condition, if you have the gumption to stick to a diet of low glycemic foods and advanced doses of nutritionals.
What else I learned from One Second After:
5. Be prepared to address food supplies and rationing from the start. The characters in One Second After should have immediately started growing crops and building green houses.
6. Develop a communications and alert system with a plan on how to provide security and defend the community - which would be a logical extension from the group organizational priority.
This is my short list of what I learned. I hope it lets you reconsider the value of One Second After. The negative learning concept is something watching your buddy stick his hand down a hole and he gets his hand shredded by a sharp toothed badger. You see it and say to yourself “Heck,…I’m not going to stick my hand down there like he did!”…… so you learned from his bad example.
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