Urban Survival Planning - Operational Planning: Developing the CONOPS

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a comment on the post that was answering a question on the Case of the Coming Collapse...."Anonymous said... Hey Urban Man - really like that stuff on military planning. Can you do some more survival collapse oriented planning?"

UrbanMan’s reply: Operational planning skills are a necessity. Some people are natural planners and organizers. Others have to have a process and that is where keywords, checklists, and formats come in handy. In a simplified manner, if someone remembers to address the 5 W’s (Who, What, Where, When and Why) as well as apply PACE (Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency) then they are more often going to be successful in developing their plan.

To makes things very simple the Military Operational planning process can be thought of as a Conceptual Phase and a Detailed Planning Phase. This post is on the Conceptual Phase of Planning.

Conceptual planning is developing the Concept of Operations, also called the CONOPS. This is a general concept covering key elements of a plan, but not the detailed elements of a plan. There are some essential elements of a CONOPS, they are:

Mission. What are you going to be accomplishing (considering the 5 W’s).

Task Organization. Who is participating on the operation and how the unit is organized to complete the mission.

Chain of Command. Who is in charge, second, third, etc. You need a chain of command and it needs to be enforced. A mission conducted with individuals and not a team will fail.

General Concept of Execution. This is a general concept of how the operation will unfold. No need to determine exact times here, exact routes, etc....this is a general concept at this time. This covers from launch from the Survival Base Camp through the mission and return.

Essential Tasks. What tasks are critical to the success of the mission? WHat are trying to accomplish with the operation?

Critical Equipment (logistics). What items are critical to the mission, both team and individual gear. Sometimes this is referred to Equipment Common to All, and, Special Equipment plus who is going to carry the special equipment.

Communications. How and when communications will be conducted.

Timeline. The general planned timeline.

Imagine a Urban Survival Group occupying a house in a mostly abandoned neighborhood. Sporadic gunfire, not every day, but often enough to make the Group concerned. Abandoned vehicles in the neighborhood have been drained for fuel and stored in the Groups extra fuel cans and several of the groups vehicles are packed for a Emergency Bug Out. The Group decides that a security patrol around the neighborhood, maybe up to a mile perimeter should be conducted.

The operation is planned and briefed. The briefing of the mission serves to wargame the operation, and refine or modify elements of the mission that problems are identified with. It is essential that either a sand table (terrain model, a chart or a map is used to briefed the conduct of the operation so everyone gets a visualization on the concept.

Lets say the Survival Group consists of 5 men and 3 women. Jim (mission planner and team leader), Bob, John, Larry, Steve, Laura, Teresa and Sally.

A decent operational concept (or CONOPS) brief will go like this:

Jim: "This is the concept for tomorrow’s security patrol which will be a daytime patrol returning tomorrow night and is intended to recon the general area surrounding our neighborhood not to exceed one mile, to get an idea of any security risks like criminal gangs that have either moved in or are operating in the immediate area, and, possibly locate and contact other survival groups. We should be prepared to render aid if I can do it and not compromise our security or safety."

Jim: "The patrol will consist of myself as Team Leader, Larry and Teresa."

Larry: "Hey Jim, that leaves the only people with medical training, Steve and Sally, back here. I suggest taking a medic so if case if you encounter anyone who needs treatment you will have that capability."

Jim: "Good idea Larry. Okay, Sally replaces Teresa on this mission. I’m in charge, Larry is second in command. We depart here tomorrow morning and move NORTH up Cedar Street then EAST on Oak Street, then parallel the State highway SOUTH to the powerline, then parallel the powerlines WEST to Jackson Blvd. We’ll then follow Jackson Blvd NORTH to Peterson Street, then EAST on Oak Street and come back into our base, no earlier than mid afternoon and no later than sunset. Total distance is 8 miles and at no time should we be more than 1 mile away from the base."

Laura "Jim,...maybe you should be prepared to parallel Jackson Blvd rather than walk on it as that is the direction of most the gunfire we have been hearing and from our SOUTH facing Observation Post on the second floor, I have been seeing head lights of vehicles occasionally on that Blvd."

Jim "Roger that Laura,..okay we may parallel Jackson Blvd, but we will need to observe it for awhile to get an idea of what traffic may be using it and if there any people living along it."

Jim "Our essential tasks as I see it is to conduct a foot patrol, maintaining movement interval and noise discipline; determine extent of remaining population; determine presence of criminal or threat elements if any; and, catalog any material, equipment or supplies that may be of use to us."

Steve "Hey Jim, I would suggest taking some basic tools in case you locate something we can use that requires using tools to breakdown,..."

Jim "Good idea Steve......Okay the equipment list. Each of us on patrol will carry rifle and handgun, at least 60 rounds for the rifles and three re-loads for the handgun; Basic Bug Out Bag to include individual medical kit, three days worth of meals in case we have to hole up someplace; Motorola Radio; and, six quarts of water. For Special Equipment: I'll carry a pair of the larger binoculars, Steve carry a smaller pair. I'll carry the small tool kit with screwdrivers, large and small crescent wrenches; Sally carry's the larger patrol first aid kit - probably need to add some extra bandages, small one time use anti-biotic tubes and aspirin."

Jim "Our communications plan will be to attempt radio communications via the Motorola's every hour on the hour. Bob - you are in charge of the base camp while I am gone. Please ensure someone is monitoring the base station radio at all times. We may be pushing the range of our radios given the buildings that may inhibit line of sight. If we can't make communications for three hours then we will get some high ground, such as on a roof and attempt communications with a better line of sight."

John "Jim, what if you can't make communications at all? Will you abort the patrol and make your way back to base?"

Jim "Good point John,...Unless I think the threat is sufficient to abort, I'll take the risk of not having communications to finish the patrol. However, I will ensure that we make it back to base before last light. In the absence of radio communications, we'll ensure we approach the base in the standard method, using one person and three one-second blinks using a red lens flashlight every thirty seconds."

Jim "Any questions? No? Good. Okay we'll all meet here again at 1800 hours, except Bob and Laura who are on LP/OP duty, for the Patrol Order. We'll use another hour after that to ensure the patrol remembers the arm and hands signals, then pack equipment and get some rack time by 2200 hours. Plan on wake up at the normal time 0430 hours, except for the two coming off LP/OP duty. The Patrol will depart at 0730 hours tomorrow morning."


What occurred in the dialogue above was a Jim developing a Concept of Operations, briefing it to his Survival Group, and getting feedback to modify or refine the concept. Read it again and see if Jim covered all essential elements of a CONOPS including: Mission, Task Organization, Chain of Command, Concept of Execution, Essential Tasks, Critical Equipment, Communications and Timeline.

Jim will now develop a Patrol Order (this is the detailed plan) then brief it the night before the Patrol begins. I'll cover what they may sound like in a different post.

Urban Survival Firearms - Reader Question on SKS

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following reader question: …… "Anonymous said…..…What’s your opinion on an SKS rifle for a survival weapon? Two of my friends in our loose knit survival group are pushing me to buy an AR type rifle, but I feel comfortable with my SKS."

UrbanMan replies: The SKS (Samozaryadniy Karabin Simonova) is a great little carbine, firing the Russian M43 round, more commonly known as the 7.62x39mm. It was put into service in the Russian Army on or about 1945 then quickly phased out of front line service with the fielding of the AK-47 (Automat Kalashnikov Model of 1947) which fired the same cartridge, although out of a 30 round magazine rather than a 10 round semi fixed box magazine like the SKS. But, of course you already know this. As well as know how durable and reliable this rifle is.

The 7.62x39mm is a much better stopper than the 5.56x45mm (.223 Remington) given the small bullet type. The M-4 is more accurate than the SKS (or the AK series rifles), but there is not reason you shouldn't be able to hit static man sized targets routinely at 300 yards with the SKS.

The standard military load for the 7.62x39mm is a 122 grain FMJ bullet with a muzzle velocity about 2,400 fps. Ammunition is easily available and fairly cheap too. I routinely see 1,000 round cases of Wolf brand, non-corrosive ammunition for around $200.

The SKS is kinda slow to load, compared to removable box magazines like the AK-47 or the M-4/M-16, but there are modification kits and detachable magazines available. They are kind of unwieldy due to the floor plate type extension on the front lip of the magazine, but none the less are quicker to reload and give the shooter 300 rounds between reloads. I wish I never let my SKS go,..one of those gun trades you wish you had back, but I have commercial versions of the AKM now.

Being part of a Urban Survival Group equipped basically the same is a great goal but needs to be carefully thought out. I would not advise any of the people in my Survival Group to “upgrade” to an M-4 for sake of uniformity and ammunition compatibility if they haven’t squared themselves away with other necessary Survival Equipment, Gear and Material, such as food as basic gear. I would think that some people are missing the boat to exclude otherwise excellent assets from joining their Survival Group because of the single reason of not having the same gun. Hopefully your group is not this way. If they were, they it may be fortunate that if you can’t join them, as their decision making skills are probably a little bent. What's next? Wanting everyone to wear a yellow ascot?

The bottom line is that everyone needs a rifle.....magazine fed even better and in a decent caliber. I prefer the M-4. That is main Survival Gun and most, if not all, people in my Urban Survival Group own at least one, but I would not feel in-adequately equipped with an SKS and the skill to use it.

Reader Question on the Case for the Coming Collapse

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a reader comment on the post titled The Case for the Coming Collapse,…...."Anonymous said... So what are you suggesting I do? Take out my money from the bank and empty out my 401K and sit on my money at my house? I do not understand what you are trying to get me (us) to do."

UrbanMan replies: The article I drew from was by Dr Craig Roberts and was not meant as a “how to” or “what to do”, although I can see how it is implied that you should do something since the momentum for a collapse is practically unstoppable.

What you do is up to you. A prudent man would listen to a lot of sources, collect information across the board and develop a plan that is feasible for him and his family. Feasible means doable….within your capability.

That plan also needs to be Complete,…considering all possible events and circumstances. From these events and circumstances, that same man and his family could develop a list of Survival Gear, Equipment and Material that would be necessary to support the plan.

Your preparation for the plan and the execution of this plan needs to be Suitable for your goals. This list for procurement and preparation will be long and most certainly will be expensive, therefore the list will need to be prioritized.

The plan also needs to be Acceptable,…..meaning the risks on not doing the plan or the financial risks of executing the preparation plan are acceptable.

Those words,....Complete (covering all major planning areas); Feasible (within the your capabilities); Suitable (meets your needs); and, Acceptable (within accepted risks) are straight out military operational planning when determining possible course of actions to accomplish a given mission.

Now as far as financial planning goes, I am not suggesting you pull out all your money from the banks and sit on it. Think about this….you have $4,000 in cash in your gun safe – worth about $4,000 of goods today and probably tomorrow. If and when hyper-inflation hits that money will loose value. That same $4,000 will then buy less and less. Nor am I suggesting you spend all your money all Survival Gear, Equipment and Material. And I am also not suggesting you trade your paycheck every two weeks for an equal value of gold or silver. What ever you do has to meet those operational requirements for you and your family.

I would however suggest that possible things you can do, is ensure you have a minimum amount of Survival Gear, Equipment and Material which for you may or may not include firearms, equipment, and stored foods; think about keeping some cash on hand for immediate procurement/purchasing needs;....think about having some amount of gold and silver; and, above all keep yourself situational aware of indicators for the coming collapse, be it a over night major event or a gradual slide into a economic depression and chaos. You should have a plan on where to go (that is safe) in the event where you are at is no longer viable for survival.

Good luck to you and remember my first suggestion,...collect information, listen to diverse sources, determine what is valid for you, your family and your plan and get to preparing.

Urban Survival Planning - The Case for the Coming Hyper Inflation

I am including this article on UrbanSurvivalSkills.com because I believe much of what Dr. Roberts puts forth as an explanation of why a collapse of the dollar and subsequent Hyper-Inflation is not only coming it is unavoidable given just how far we have tumbled. And with Hyper Inflation will come a collapse that will create chaos.

This article is written by Paul Craig Roberts and can be read in it’s entirety at http://www.infowars.com/the-ecstasy-of-empire
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is the father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury. He is a columnist and was previously an editor for the Wall Street Journal. His latest book, “How the Economy Was Lost: The War of the Worlds,” details why America is disintegrating.

The United States is running out of time to get its budget and trade deficits under control. Despite the urgency of the situation, 2010 has been wasted in hype about a non-existent recovery. As recently as August 2 Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner penned a New York Times column, “Welcome to the Recovery.”

As John Williams has made clear on many occasions, an appearance of recovery was created by over-counting employment and undercounting inflation. Washington cannot spend the economy out of recession. The deficits are already too large for the dollar to survive as reserve currency, and deficit spending cannot put Americans back to work in jobs that have been moved offshore.

Let’s get real. Here is what the government is likely to do. Once Washington realizes that the dollar is at risk and that they can no longer finance their wars by borrowing abroad, the government will either levy a tax on private pensions on the grounds that the pensions have accumulated tax-deferred, or the government will require pension fund managers to purchase Treasury debt with our pensions. This will buy the government a bit more time while pension accounts are loaded up with worthless paper.

The only remaining financier will be the Federal Reserve. When Treasury bonds brought to auction do not sell, the Federal Reserve must purchase them. UrbanMan comment: This is already happening.

The Federal Reserve purchases the bonds by creating new demand deposits, or checking accounts, for the Treasury. As the Treasury spends the proceeds of the new debt sales, the US money supply expands by the amount of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt.

Do goods and services expand by the same amount? Imports will increase as US jobs have been migrated off shore and given to foreigners, thus worsening the trade deficit. When the Federal Reserve purchases the Treasury’s new debt issues, the money supply will increase by more than the supply of domestically produced goods and services. Prices are likely to rise.

How high will they rise? The longer money is created in order that government can pay its bills, the more likely hyperinflation will be the result.

The economy has not recovered. By the end of this year it will be obvious that the collapsing economy means a larger than $1.4 trillion budget deficit to finance. Will it be $2 trillion? Higher?

Whatever the size, the rest of the world will see that the dollar is being printed in such quantities that it cannot serve as reserve currency. At that point wholesale dumping of dollars will result as foreign central banks try to unload a worthless currency.

The collapse of the dollar will drive up the prices of imports and off shored produced goods on which Americans are dependent. Wal-Mart shoppers will think they have mistakenly gone into Neiman Marcus.

Domestic prices will also explode as a growing money supply chases the supply of goods and services still made in America by Americans.

The dollar as reserve currency cannot survive the conflagration. When the dollar goes the US cannot finance its trade deficit. Therefore, imports will fall sharply, thus adding to domestic inflation and, as the US is energy import-dependent, there will be transportation disruptions that will disrupt work and grocery store deliveries.

Panic will be the order of the day. Will farms will be raided? Will those trapped in cities resort to riots and looting?

UrbanMan’s rhetorical Questions: Just how many banks will fall? How long will the “have nots” go without? Will the U.S. impose martial law? How will you survive?