Urban Survival Planning - The Case for the Coming Hyper Inflation

I am including this article on UrbanSurvivalSkills.com because I believe much of what Dr. Roberts puts forth as an explanation of why a collapse of the dollar and subsequent Hyper-Inflation is not only coming it is unavoidable given just how far we have tumbled. And with Hyper Inflation will come a collapse that will create chaos.

This article is written by Paul Craig Roberts and can be read in it’s entirety at http://www.infowars.com/the-ecstasy-of-empire
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is the father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury. He is a columnist and was previously an editor for the Wall Street Journal. His latest book, “How the Economy Was Lost: The War of the Worlds,” details why America is disintegrating.

The United States is running out of time to get its budget and trade deficits under control. Despite the urgency of the situation, 2010 has been wasted in hype about a non-existent recovery. As recently as August 2 Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner penned a New York Times column, “Welcome to the Recovery.”

As John Williams has made clear on many occasions, an appearance of recovery was created by over-counting employment and undercounting inflation. Washington cannot spend the economy out of recession. The deficits are already too large for the dollar to survive as reserve currency, and deficit spending cannot put Americans back to work in jobs that have been moved offshore.

Let’s get real. Here is what the government is likely to do. Once Washington realizes that the dollar is at risk and that they can no longer finance their wars by borrowing abroad, the government will either levy a tax on private pensions on the grounds that the pensions have accumulated tax-deferred, or the government will require pension fund managers to purchase Treasury debt with our pensions. This will buy the government a bit more time while pension accounts are loaded up with worthless paper.

The only remaining financier will be the Federal Reserve. When Treasury bonds brought to auction do not sell, the Federal Reserve must purchase them. UrbanMan comment: This is already happening.

The Federal Reserve purchases the bonds by creating new demand deposits, or checking accounts, for the Treasury. As the Treasury spends the proceeds of the new debt sales, the US money supply expands by the amount of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of Treasury debt.

Do goods and services expand by the same amount? Imports will increase as US jobs have been migrated off shore and given to foreigners, thus worsening the trade deficit. When the Federal Reserve purchases the Treasury’s new debt issues, the money supply will increase by more than the supply of domestically produced goods and services. Prices are likely to rise.

How high will they rise? The longer money is created in order that government can pay its bills, the more likely hyperinflation will be the result.

The economy has not recovered. By the end of this year it will be obvious that the collapsing economy means a larger than $1.4 trillion budget deficit to finance. Will it be $2 trillion? Higher?

Whatever the size, the rest of the world will see that the dollar is being printed in such quantities that it cannot serve as reserve currency. At that point wholesale dumping of dollars will result as foreign central banks try to unload a worthless currency.

The collapse of the dollar will drive up the prices of imports and off shored produced goods on which Americans are dependent. Wal-Mart shoppers will think they have mistakenly gone into Neiman Marcus.

Domestic prices will also explode as a growing money supply chases the supply of goods and services still made in America by Americans.

The dollar as reserve currency cannot survive the conflagration. When the dollar goes the US cannot finance its trade deficit. Therefore, imports will fall sharply, thus adding to domestic inflation and, as the US is energy import-dependent, there will be transportation disruptions that will disrupt work and grocery store deliveries.

Panic will be the order of the day. Will farms will be raided? Will those trapped in cities resort to riots and looting?

UrbanMan’s rhetorical Questions: Just how many banks will fall? How long will the “have nots” go without? Will the U.S. impose martial law? How will you survive?

Urban Survival Communications - Field Telephones

UrbanMan received this private message from a Reader:

"Urban, thought I drop you a line and let you know what I am doing for my Home Defense. My plan is to stay in my home (suburban neighborhood) for as along as I can. Then to BO if necessary to my Uncle’s Farm which is only 45 miles away. My primary route would be 63 miles because I would take the back roads to get there. Thanks for the posts on home defense, I am using a couple of those concepts, most were not new to me. My house is a two stories. I have two bedrooms that face opposite direction and viewing from both windows gives me almost a full circle view around my home. Most of the other houses are one story homes. I bought two old Army radio telephones, called TA-312’s and put one up stairs with enough wire so the person on watch can move from one room to the other and carry the TA-312 by the strap. He or she will be able to call downstairs and let us know what they see. These TA-312 telephones are great to use. I bought mine at a gun show for $150 (for two of them) and a wire spool. If I BO to the farm, I will take these with me and we can use them there. Maybe you can do an article on these radio telephones. Shelly."

UrbanMan replies: Shelly, yes the TA-312 are a great communication tool and more secure than transmitting on push to talk radios. I suggest using PACE planning (Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency) for everything, communications included. Don’t reply just on one mode or method for anything. Push to talk radios, pull strings, emergency klaxons, alert light system and horns all have places in your communications plan.

When I need to employ a 24 hour watch, putting at least one person in a position on my flat home roof, I will use push to talk Motorola radios, powered by re-chargeable AA batteries as primary voice comms, with a pull string system leading down through a skylight to a series of bells to alert people in the house. I also have a canned air horn and am playing with a couple of car horns I pulled from junked vehicles to use as a larger alert siren. However, having the ability to talk, two way, to your Observation Post/Listening Post is priceless.

There are other alike versions of the TA-312 that I see from time to time in military surplus catalogs, some of them from China or wherever. The only problem with the TA-312 is that it requires batteries to operate. Using the military BA30 or civilian equivalent “D” cells. I have not used the TA-312 very much and certainly not in the last 30 years…..(...Jesus, am I that old?). I looked around and saw where one could purchase a set of TA-312’s (two field phones) for around $150 and for another $140 could purchase ¼ mile of WD-1 telephone wire.

A much better version of the field telephone is the TA-1. This is a newer version of the landline telephone system. Although the TA-1 is much lighter than the TA-312, the main advantage of this newer model is that it uses no batteries. Also unlike the TA-312, the TA-1 uses a dynamic microphone element so it's "sound powered". Signaling to another field phone so they can pickup on the other end is by means of a built-in generator that, instead of a crank like the TA-312, uses a level that you pump. I recently saw a set (a pair) of TA-1, without wire, for $240.

I remember reading something last year, where an enterprising individual utilized two extension type phones,…those without dials or push pads, to make a commercial type TA-312 system using a battery and a separate light to power the microphone in the handset and a light to indicate a call in-coming. This is also a possibility for a post collapse communications system between fixed points.

Urban Survival Firearms - M-4/M-16/AR-15 Magazines

UrbanMan received an e-mail asking about the differences between and my recommendations on AR magazines.

I only use three different types of AR magazines: P-MAGS, H and K Mags and the standard aluminum AR magazines manufactured by Colt.

Although I have many more aluminum Colt magazines than any others combined, these are primarily my training magazines, although some of stacked in M-4 ready cans with ammunition. This magazine can be usually purchased for less than $15; is usually reliable; but after all is aluminum and subject to more easily applied damage than the P-MAG or the Hecklar and Koch mags. When I have determined that one of these aluminum magazines are causing malfunctions, I stomp on the feed lip and follower end so it is smashed then trash it. I have enough messed up mags already for training purposes (inducing stoppages, etc.) but those are marked with red painted floor plates.

The H and K mags used to be all the rage a few years ago. We had feeding problems with the first edition and now the one's being issued/sold with the black follower have eliminated those early problems. This is a robust magazine as it better be since it is made out of steel and is much heavier than the aluminum magazines. Image that? These are slick magazines as well,..no "scrunch, scrunch, scrunch" of the old aluminum mags, nor follower wobble. Very good magazines, but around $40 a copy, these are expensive as well.

By and large my favorite, and what I recommend are the P-MAG's made by Mag-Pul. At around $15 a copy these are affordable. Made from extremely durable advanced impact resistant polymer, these magazines can take a beating. They are available in various colors: Black, OD green, Flat Dark Earth and Foliage. Hell, I just get mine in OD Green. I guess if you are from San Francisco you can paint them Chartrusse or Teal Blue. These mags come with a pop-off impact cover for storage, and an easy to dis-assemble design (using the pop-off impact cover), and, with a flared floor plate for just a little better magazine extraction from pouches. I have not completed changing out all my M-4 mags for P-MAGS, but I have several dozen and all work well. I have never had a feeding problem with one yet. Now I just jinxed myself.

I run into people from time to time that talk about this "new" 100 round dual drum magazine for the AR. I can't remember the first time I saw the BETA C-MAG,.... could have been as early as 1989, but I know we bought six C-MAGS in 1999 for a test for consideration to be included in our kit. Well, we did not buy any more. They have feed problems, noisy with loose ammunition rattling around, and, easily broken plastic feed lips. I understand there is a new production of these, but we see this as a solution to a non existent problem, and will not buy/test the new ones. I'd say, at $275 or so a copy, buy them at your own risk.

Brownell's is where I get most of my M-4 accessories including magazines, you can pay them a visit by clicking here. Magazines will be the fourth tab from the left.

Urban Survival Planning - Intelligence Prep of the Battlefield 101

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received this comment which promoted us to talk Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield as a Urban Survival Skill,..."Urban Man, back in the day, we did "dry runs", stealthy recons, etc. Our AO was in Eastern Europe, South and Central America's cities, and our recon was done via, foot, as tourists, bus, auto and scooter/motorcycle....Taking that experience, I have applied it to my neighborhood, and surrounding area...I drive around, various times of the day/evening, and at night sometimes, with a digital recorder to make comments (so no incriminating paper) and get a feel for the area..I look for choke points, ambush points (mine & theirs), and resources (such as stores, buildings, unsecured 1000 gal gas tanks, etc). I get the vibe, map mileage and the like...Since I live in an Urban setting, I need to do this in addition to my normal neighborhood patrols/recons (dog walks)..No one is the wiser and I have lots of data to draw from...just a thought...PSYOP Soldier"
UrbanMan replies: PSYOP Soldier. Good points and appreciate your input. Visual Reconnaissance, without drawing attention to yourself, is the best way to familarize oneself with the terrain, rural or urban, and to Prep the Battlefield (IPB - a term I'm sure you'll understand) with information, that is once analyzed and exploited for your use, becomes useful intelligence.

Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefied is a term used in the military that defines the methodology employed to reduce uncertainties concerning the enemy, environment, and terrain for all types of operations. It is a continuous process that is used throughout all planned and executed operations.

IPB would be highly applicable in a collapse. In fact, in the American Apocalyse book series, the main characters assign one of the Survival Group members to be the Intelligence Officer (military acronym is S-2). You greatly incease th chances of failure when planning in an intelligence vaccuum.

Too many Intelligence operations focus on tht enemy (the threat) and will often not develop their information on the environment. The environment includes terrain, people-demographics and specifically for a societal-economic collapse this would mean locations of all commodities or equipment that you may be able to secure. These could include fuel sources, heavy equipment, material such as landscaping timbers (for hardening of defensive positions like stacking them inside your house), this list could be endless.

For Urban IPB, knowing who lived where; what they do for a living or what skills they have, and what resources and assets they may have is a must.

A good start would be to develop a list of things you want to know (a collection plan) based on the factors of terrain which are Observation and Fields of Fire; Key Terrain; Obstacles; Avenues of Approach; and, Cover and Concealment. How are they important? What do they mean to you? What would they mean to the enemy (threat)?

Having maps and imagery greatly enhances your planning and situational awareness. Keeping a set of these hard copy in case your computer and printer kick the bucket are a must. Using butcher block paper, or large cardboard from Office Depot is another good idea...and even laminating these maps and charts so you can write on them using a dry marker or a grease pencil will help greatly.

I use several programs to develop my situational maps of my urban location. Google Maps is a great program most people are familiar with. You can develop imagery and road maps from Google. Google Earth Pro is an enhanced program that is worth the cost to me, but I don't think it is absolutely necessary. Another free program is www.bing.com/maps/

However, a topographical map program is a necessity. I use National Geographic Topo and have personal copies of this software for all the States I plan on being in or Bugging Out to. There are other good mapping program, such as De Lorme, Falcon View, Arc GIS and others. But Nat Geo Topo is easy to easy and inexpensive, especially if you only need one State at $49.95 per State.

With Nat Geo Topo you can product 1:500,000 scale to 1:250,000 scale US Geological Service (USGS) maps for general planning.

However, what will be most useful to the Urban Survival Planner would be the 1:100,000 scale and 1:24,000 scale USGS maps that you can toggle to at the click of your mouse. These 1:24,000 scale maps are also called 7.5' Quadrangles by the USGS. Go here to check out National Geographic Maps:

I have several maps and imagery products printed on large format, 36 inch by 36 inch paper, for my Urban Area. I laminated these and can write on these with a Sharpie for permanent annotations or with a grease pencil (China Marker) for temporary information. Basically keeping a Situation Map of my area.