Urban Survival - Collapse Indicators Late April 2011

I am getting a lot of readers e-mailing me about an imminent collapse. Maybe some of these that were the same people who called for an imminent collapse a dozen times or more in the last 10 years. I do know that most of us cannot keep at a peak preparedness 24/7. Obligations and just plain life get in the way. I think keeping on top looking for and analyzing the indicators of a SHTF scenario, or at least the scenarios that we can see coming is about the only thing we can do, besides trying to get better preparation wise each and every day.

As far as economic collapse indicators, I am trying to keep on top of the ones I am aware of,.....not just the financial factors, but make no mistake about it,...the financial factors ARE dire. Here are just some recent events and indicators:

University of Texas Investment Management Co. converting Gold shares into physical Gold on taking delivery of 6,643 gold bars, worth $991.7 million yesterday, that are stored in a bank warehouse in New York. Why would U or Texas do this when just the storage fee is around $900K a year?

Open interest in gold futures and options traded on the Comex (paper shares of Gold) typically exceeds supplies held in its warehouses. If the holders of just 5 percent of those contracts opted to take delivery of the metal, there wouldn’t be enough to cover the demand. Imagine if many people or companies held their base capital or even just their reserves in Gold then found out they could not re-deem it, nor sell it because there was nothing of value? Paper Gold and Silver shares are just like fiat currency!

Rep. Ron Paul’s warning that “Holding your money in dollars when the Fed can double and triple the supply rather quickly and quietly, is a losing proposition”. Ron Paul, a Texas Republican, advocates a return to a currency backed by precious metals.

West Coast advisor's report more and more of their investors converting their portfolio into physical Gold. The highest percentage of those who take possession of Gold shares in physical gold are millionaires.

The FED has printed more money than they ever have, so the value of the dollar has declined while the prices of goods and services have skyrocketed.

More people, including Congressman Paul, are warning of a probably Government attempt to curtail private entities and people holding gold,……remember U.S. ownership restrictions in the 1930s?

Speaking of Gold,…..and Silver. Prices were: Gold up $3.10 to $1,506.50 and Silver up $.54 to $46.60 and by the time I upload this article, the prices will be higher.

Concerns over Sovereign-debt (at an all time high) driving Standard & Poor’s to revise its U.S. credit outlook to negative. It the U.S> defaults on their debt or the U.S. dollar ceases the be the World’s reserve currency, then fuel prices will free fall upward.

Speaking of fuel,……it is averaging around $4 a gallon, with some locations charging $5 per gallon. Some analysts are predicting fuel to hit $7 a gallon by the fall – this is without the collapse of the dollar, however I suspect the dollar will collapse long before it. Fuel prices have tremendous repercussions as many electrical plants are ran by fossil fuels. Can you imagine everyone’s electric bill doubling? How about routine rolling blackouts? Can you imagine tens of thousands of people, who depend upon fuel oil to heat their homes, not being able to afford the necessity of heat during the winter in some of the coldest environs in the U.S. ?

Survival Firearms - Reader Question on SigSauer P290 Handgun

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following question via e-mail, on the new SigSauer P290 semi-automatic. "Have you seen or shot the new Sig P290 9mm pistol? I am thinking about buying one. I used to have a Sig P226 but sold that for a Ruger Mini-14 and am now thinking of adding a handgun to my survival weapons arsenal which includes a .30-06 Remington scoped rifle and a 12 gauge Remington slide action shotgun."

UrbanMan reply: Handgun are great tools but will never replace rifles or shotguns (long guns) for your primary survival firearm. I have not shot nor handled the new Sig P290 but hope to wring one out in a month or two. But as good as the Sig's are, I am not in the market for one.

The Sig website say's this about the P290: "This unique 9mm pistol is the perfect small defense handgun that meets the demands of today’s law enforcement professionals as a backup duty gun, and responsible citizens as a conceal carry gun."

So even Sig acknowledges that this is a backup gun. Which with a 6 round magazine capacity and only 4.3 inch sight radius, this handgun is for concealed carry and short range use. If I did not have a defensive handgun for my survival armory then I would be looking for something a little bit larger with a larger magazine capacity and longer sight radius for better accuracy at longer ranges, say past 25 yards.

You have a good start on a survival battery with quality firearms in the categories you would need: magazine fed rifle, 12 gauge shotgun and a center fire rifle caliber long gun. I think that for the money you would spend on a Sig P290, you could buy a decent Glock model 17 or 22, and have enough left for a .22 LR rifle which would be of great value in a survival scenario both for hunting and training.

Cheers

Urban Survival - Reader Question on Refugee Danger

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received the following comment: ” I live in a small rural town in Ohio . We have one traffic light on a 2 lane state route. How do I determine if I am near a refugee line and how many refugees and looters would one have to defend yourself against? Do most refugees travel south (ie to warmer weather) or is that not a factor? I have always felt safe hear but realize all that will go out the window in a collapse type situation. We have a lot going for us hear that we are a Christian Community and close nit. There are a lot of families related to one another. We have 2nd Cousins, Uncles, etc here. What are the criteria for these type situation?

UrbanMan’s reply: Great question on how does an individual or Survival Group determine if their location is on a mass migration or refugee route or are situated to be endangered by other factors. Weather,..i.e..warm weather may be a factor if the event, such as utilities failure or fuel oil shortages occurs during the winter time. The catalyst is probably more likely to be a food shortage.

I do not know your location, and it would probably not be a good idea to send any other information to me,…in other words keep your OPSEC tight. I picked out a region of Ohio for my example on the map below. The first thing I would is to determine the possible events that could place your location in danger of pushing hungry and desperate people your way,…the effects of a refugee stream and what the effects would be on your safety and survival.

Some of those events and questions may be:

1. Food stores and deliveries dry up in a nearby city pushing people your direction. Are you located on a natural route out of the city? Is there a reason refugees would moved in your direction? On the map imagine you are located in Burton , Ohio ,…seemingly well off the beaten path from the larger cities of Cleveland and Youngstown . Would food shortages or infrastructure/utility failures in Youngstown drive refugee migration towards Cleveland where people may supposed food stores exist due to Cleveland ’s location on Lake Erie and commodities deliveries would go there first before being delivered to interior locations?

2. Are you between major cities where events such as a large scale chemical accident or even a man-made or man caused event such as a nuclear detonation may drive people your way? Consider routes both ways,…would a major event in Cleveland drive people towards Youngstown and therefore either transiting close by or even through Burton?

3. The major lines of communication (called LOC’s) or otherwise known as the interstates and highways would be heavily traveled during a refugee migration or evacuation. Some people will be using these routes because they are the fastest routes,….while others may think that a carefully developed routes using secondary state highways may be safer. I think the major LOC’s will be problematic as grid lock, breakdowns, gas shortages, accidents and possibly armed bandit groups preying on people can or will make these dangerous.

4. Having some sort of early warning system would be huge to prepare against refugee tidal wave. Friends, family or cultivated sources/alliances with a means of communications are important even if you are not necessarily directly on a refugee route. Consider the map below. The circle around Burton is a notional Area of Operations (AO) also called Area of Responsibility (AOR). This may be the circle that all your group lives within,….maybe where your crop fields and other resources are contained, etc. Anything that can happen outside of your AOR but can influence things inside your AOR is called your Area of Influence (AI). You will need to determine decision points or area(s) of interest such as the intersection of 422 and 322, where refugees could first be confirmed if they went NW towards Burton , or even due NORTH on 422 towards Middlefield. Because once in Middlefield, they could easily turn WEST and roll in to Burton . These are places where you should know the refugees are transiting through and that information relayed to the group in Burton.

It would be important to know and have looked at (reconnoitered) locations such as choke points along these natural refugee routes, such as bridges, big turns in the roads, low ground on the road or covered and concealed areas close to the road or really anyplace where a blockade, checkpoint or even an ambush can be conducted to keep large groups from rolling into your AOR.

Being self sufficient,….having stored food and being able to grow your own food, having a good year round water source, family and neighbors you can count on and the ability to protect yourself, are all necessary for survival during a collapse, but being rolled over by massive amounts of hungry, desperate people or even just having to deal with and maybe feed or treat a smaller number could spell your doom. You and your people are ahead of the effort in many ways if you are a Christian Group and living in a small town. It helps to have a common denominator within the Survival Group, other than just the desire to survive. Baseline morals and the value system is highly important to have an effective team that works well together on survival essential goals.

Again, I picked Burton at random. I know of no one living in Burton or even in Ohio...other than the general description of the state from the reader comment.

Urban Survival Planning - Financial Collapse: One Scenario

This is what the Complete and Total Economic Collapse of the United States and the World looks like on film. An older movie to be sure, but the principal catalysts remain the same,...hyper-inflation, total devaluation of the dollar, gold and silver prices skyrocket,......commodities in short supply.

The difference between this old movie and today is the incredible national debt the U.S. has incurred; the ability of the U.S. to feed itself has diminished something like 70% while the population has increased greatly; mass migration from the cities; housing crisis with foreclosures about to hit critical mass; the need for oil has greatly increased; and, not but least is that our enemies have grown much more sophisticated.



By the way, I ordered the movie which is available on Amazon.com