Urban Survival Planning - 5 Doomsday Scenarios for the U.S. Economy

This is an article by Derek Thompson and Daniel Indiviglio. While they are not imbedded within the Survival Prepping community, nor seem to have a real great grasp on the depths of choas that the potential for economic collapse has, but despite the title of this piece, this goes to prove even the mainstream of America are deeply concerned about the possibility of a economic collpase and therefore plunging us into chaos and a path for survival. But of course, if you are reading this site, you are already concerned and hopefully already taking prudent measures.

When I see stuff like this across the news wires on Yahoo!, Google news, and even on-line and hard copy newspapers, it motivates me to prepare just that much harder. It does take guts to be in the mainstream and write about Doomsday events, Economic Collapse and the resulting chaos from anarchy as you can very easily be seen as a nut. Most of us are past that.


It's been a brutal summer for the economy. The housing sector, like a balloon batted in the air one last time by the government credit, resumed its inevitable fall. Economic growth slowed to a lead-footed 1.6 percent, and job growth is even more anemic. Meanwhile, consumers are cranky, the trade gap is gaping.

Most signs point to a slow and steady recovery, but what if the pessimists are right, again? What if the United States isn't in the slow-lane to recovery, but rather on the precipice of another decline -- a double dip?

To see where this re-recession might begin, Dan Indiviglio and I imagined five financial earthquakes, each with a single epicenter: housing, consumers, toxic assets, Europe, and the debt. The following five scenarios are listed in order of likelihood.

1. Housing's Mini-Bubble Pops

Perhaps nothing poses as a big of a concern to the U.S. economy as its housing market. It's unclear how the government's efforts to stabilize the market through a buyer credit, ultra-low mortgage rates, and mortgage modification programs will pan out. Did it just create another mini-bubble that's beginning to pop now that the support has been withdrawn?

Here's the scenario. Weak home sales and continuing foreclosures result in climbing real estate inventory. This has two effects. First, it makes new homes even less attractive which further reduces construction jobs. Second, it puts downward pressure on home prices, which makes it harder for struggling homeowners to sell their home to avoid foreclosure and also keeps strategic default rates high, exacerbating the problem. Lower home values encourage Americans to save more and spend less, since their wealth is effectively reduced. The Dow drops and credit markets tighten even further, suffocating private investment just as homeowners bunker down and slash spending. Growth turns negative.

2. You Break the Economy

You, the American consumer, are reloading savings after a debt-fueled decade. But as any general will tell you, when an entire squad reloads at once, it leaves everybody vulnerable. It's the same with the economy.

Here's the scenario. Consumer sentiment continues to fall slowly, and spending turns negative again. Small businesses hold off to replenish their inventories or add new workers. Wages and hours freeze, and unemployment takes a leap toward 10 percent in October. Congress is paralyzed, because it's only weeks away from the mid-terms. The stock market sees business revenue trending flat, joblessness rising and Congress doing nothing, and it sparks a 300-point sell-off. Americans frightful for their savings cut back spending even more the next month, and overall growth turns negative.

3. Toxic Assets Return

If you closely followed the bank bailout, then you know it wasn't originally billed as simply throwing money at the banks. Instead, the Treasury intended to purchase the toxic assets from banks, which were the source of investors' uncertainty concerning bank stability. But the Treasury couldn't figure out a way to do this quickly enough to make it effective. As a result, the banks were largely stuck with these bad assets. We just don't know how bad, yet.

Here's the scenario. The residential real estate market's problems continue. Even once foreclosures begin to decline, we see waves of defaults, as modification program participants re-default at rates of 30% to 50%. Commercial mortgage-backed securities continue to deteriorate, as some businesses struggle with weak consumer demand. Home and commercial real estate values keep declining, and so do the value of the assets that back them. Banks with exposure to these toxic securities see another round of losses, and investors question their stability. The market plummets, credit freezes, and growth turns negative.

4. Europe Falls Apart

Europe seems to have avoided an all-out collapse of confidence in its ability to pay back its debt. But things can change, and fast fast. Indeed, the Greek debt crisis went from ignorable wire stories to front page news in a matter of days.

Here's the scenario. Slow growth in weak Eurozone states like Greece, Spain, and Italy turns negative and spooks investors, who demand higher returns on government debt. Europe's bond rates spike. Countries announce further austerity -- tax increases and spending cuts -- which strangles our biggest export market. The EU central bank responds by announcing a plan to write down troubled debt, which dings some Americans banks.

In a flight to quality debt, the dollar appreciates. This hurts our exports even more. As the trade deficit gapes open and manufacturing's good run dead ends, the stock market plummets, taking household wealth down with it. Families looking to restore balance sheets cut back on spending, and the American producer loses the American consumer and the European buyer. Growth turns negative.

5. Debt Finally Catches Up to Us

Interest rates on U.S. debt are low today for one big reason. Investors trust the United States, at least more than they trust other countries. If the people giving us money suddenly have as little faith in America as Americans, that could change, and quickly.

Here's the scenario. The IMF recently said the United States has a 25 percent chance of seeing dramatically higher interest rates in the near future. But the bond market can strike without warning, as it did in Europe earlier this year. If uncertainty with our political process gets reflected in our interest rate, we'll have a harder time affording debt, 55% of which has to be rolled over in the next three years. Pension and mutual funds with government debt would be written down, causing Americans to save even more of their paychecks. We'd be left with two bad choices: tax cuts to juice consumption or tax hikes to please our lenders. But at that point, it would be too late to avoid a double dip.

Urban Survival Planning - The Collapse That Awaits Us

One of my guys who is acutely tied into wide and collective analysis of financial issues in order to determine indicators of any collapse tells me we are just short of tipping into a full fledged economic collapse and then into chaos. I don't pretend to be smart enough to understand all the issues and co-factors that impact on the economy and a potential collapse. I'm just like probably many of you,...we know things are bad and we know they can get alot worse. Hell, that's why we are preparing. Packing Survival Bug Out Bags,....buying or loading ammunition,....Planning withdrawals to our safe areas,.....stocking survival food and collecting seeds.

I am convinced that most self sustaining Survival Preppers are not involved in the political process, other than voting, as they see no reason to hope that this headlong dive into economic oblivion can be halted with a change in government. Most see it has we have came too far, too fast to correct the National Economic azimuth and that giant iceberg called economic chaos looms just ahead.

The video below, Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis, is long but necessary to understand what we are facing and put, perhaps again, a bigger need into our preparations to survive the collapse.

Once you get past the Wheat Thins commercial in the front, as the beginning of the video actually starts at the 3 minute mark, you'll hear this quote "The clock is ticking and time is not working in our favor." This is applicable to most of our Urban Survival Preparations. Knowing that we'll never really be prepared as well as we want to be, use this as motivation to just be better prepared,...better equipped,....and refine your Survival Plan.

Urban Survival Firearms - Is the 6.8mm SPC a good Survival Collapse Cartridge

UrbanSurivalSkills.com received the following question regarding Urban Survival Firearms and choices of caliber. "Me and another Survival prepper are deciding on what gun we are going to get. I’m thinking that an M-16 type rifle in the 6.8mm cartridge would give us both firepower and stopping power. What do you think?"

Urbanman replies: The 6.8 SPC (6.8 x 43mm) due to it’s overall length and relative low chamber pressure made the M16 or AR platform adaptable to this cartridge. Although the bullet diameter is smaller, I tend to think of this cartridge like a the M43 AK round (7.62x39mm).

It is a good stopper and was developed and pushed by elements of the Army Special Forces community to replace the 5.56x45mm (.223 Remington) as small groups of Special Operators would find themselves in a "target rich environment" and the 5.56 was failing to put people down for the count. This was largely due to the SS109 bullet - steel core penetrator, which had too much penetration and did not leave all of it's energy in soft skinned targets.

The 5.56x45mm standard military round in the 62 grain SS109 configuration has a muzzle velocity of approximatley 2,700 fps depending upon barrel lengnth. The 6.8x43mm SPC round with a 115 grain bullet travels at 2,800 fps. More diameter and weight, and more velocity, give the 6.8mm SPC the edge of which round is a better stopper.

I would not begrudge anyone going to the 6.8mm round in an AR platform. The considerations would be ammunition availability and price - certainly much, much cost involved than stocking the abundant .223 Remington. The cost difference between equal amounts of rounds has to have the 6.8mm SPC costing twice as much if not more. Are you going to be to stock 4,000 rounds per gun? That's my base figure for ammunition on hand for each main long gun. I'll stick to my AR platforms and the 5.56x45mm round.

The bottom line, as I am reminded by readers all too often, is to have a long gun for these lawless survival environments; be able to use it well; and have sufficient ammunition for it. Sounds like good advice to me.

Urban Survival - Surviving Natural Disasters - Hurricanes

With Hurricane Earl make a change in direction towards and rapidly approaching the East Coast placing people and property at risk – like a societal collapse scenario, we thought this post was appropriate. As of 1400 hours EST today, Thursday 2 Sept, Hurricane Earl is a Category 3 Hurricane with 125 mph winds.

Although no good will come out a Hurricane and the possible floods and criminal activity that can and will result…it is a time to exercise of your Survival Plans intended for a Total Collapse Scenario or what we know as TEOTEAWKI.

Understand the threat. For Natural weather based disasters, especially with forewarning as is the case with Hurricanes, go to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Watch site: http://www.noaawatch.gov/ to obtain the latest information on conditions. You’ll see some graphics like the one below that will give you an idea on the, in this case, Hurricane path. A Hurricane Watch means a hurricane is possible in your area. Be prepared to evacuate. Monitor local radio and television news outlets or listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest developments. A Hurricane Warning is when a hurricane is expected in your area. If local authorities advise you to evacuate, leave immediately.

Hurricanes are classified into five categories based on their wind speed, central pressure, and damage potential. Category Three and higher hurricanes are considered major hurricanes (using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), though Categories One and Two are still extremely dangerous and warrant your full attention. Hurricanes can produce widespread torrential rains. Floods are the deadly and destructive result. Slow moving storms and tropical storms moving into mountainous regions tend to produce especially heavy rain. Excessive rain can trigger landslides or mud slides, especially in mountainous regions. Flash flooding can occur due to intense rainfall. Flooding on rivers and streams may persist for several days or more after the storm. See chart below:

Home Preparation.

Cover all of your home's windows with pre-cut ply wood or hurricane shutters to protect your windows from high winds. Boy, ain’t Floridians good at this?

Plan to bring in all outdoor furniture, garbage cans and anything else that is not tied down. High winds can make anything not strapped down or secured into a missile – kinda like a fragmentation grenade.

Keep all trees and shrubs well trimmed so they are more wind resistant.

Secure your home by closing shutters, and securing outdoor objects or bringing them inside.

Turn off utilities as instructed. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed.

Turn off propane tanks.

Ensure a supply of water for sanitary purposes such as cleaning and flushing toilets. Fill the bathtub and other large containers with water.

Family – Personnel Prep.

Ensure Bug Out Bags are packed and ready to go. Fill water bottles and add last minute food items. Put fresh batteries in your radios and re-charge all cell phones. This is your chance to update the BOB’s as well as to place in new medications, and/or change out expired meds and first aid items, etc.

Ensure all documents you need are included such as birth certificates, shot records, social security cards, insurance policies and paperwork, wills or trust paperwork, birth, marriage and death certificates, tax records, etc.

If you have time, get more cash out of the bank or ATM.

Family or Survival Group Emergency Plan.

Brief your family or survival group emergency plan. Ensure everyone knows the routes and location for your rally points or rendezvous locations.

Ensure everyone has a list of all phone numbers, radio frequencies and any code words you are using.

Pack and load all vehicles that you intend on using. Hey, this is a good chance to see if everything fits and/or or learn to prioritize your Survival Bug Our Vehicle Load List.

This also may be the first time you have considered what you are going to do about your pets and if you have the material and resources to take them with you during the Bug Out.

Be prepared to move on foot and use ropes to secure each to one another and strobe lights or chem lights to mark people for control and locating in periods of no visibility such as driving rain, extremely high winds, or total darkness.

Lastly, be prepared to protect yourself and your family or Survival Group. Your situational awareness and security measures should be at or near the peak. Criminal elements are active during the disasters and through the aftermath,... ...robberies, looting, looking for victims are all high on the criminal or gang operational priority list.