Gold and Silver - Perceptions Changing

UrbanSurvivalSkills received this comment from Anonymous…… ”I remained unconvinced that buying Gold or Silver is a smart move. Historically the prices have fluctuated, caused by the filthy rich people buying and selling large amounts to make enormous profits. Anyway, the ratio of Gold to Silver is constantly changes so people can lose their ass buying silver when it will be devalued against gold. If there is a really bad SHTF situation then all commerce will be conducted by either hyper-inflated dollars or through simple barter or trade goods. I also think there are people who are not thinking clearly about what can happen and scaring them into buying Gold and Silver is doing them a disservice.”

UrbanMan’s reply: Everyone has to make up their own mind on the value of owning precious metals, Gold and Silver, or even silver coins for their silver melt value. I know people in my income group who have spent 4x or 5x the amount I have spent on Gold and Silver. Obviously they value precious metals more; think that during a collapse or SHTF situation that it will be extremely valuable to own; or they are thinking about coming out of a collapse and beginning over with a lot of wealth.

I approach buying precious metals, overwhelmingly Silver, as a hedge against the projected worthlessness of paper money during a collapse and as a way to buy necessary items when barter or trade is not feasible. While I prefer Silver not to lose it’s value as I eventually want the world to return to normal and to pass off my Silver bullion and Silver coins to my family, it does not matter too much to me if silver drops to $10 an ounce. Once an economic collapse occurs, the value will certainly rise significantly. I simply own it to be provide a possibility of commerce after SHTF. I would much rather trade in Silver than in food or ammunition.

If you don’t want to procure precious metals, primarily Silver, as a contingency during hard times then that is your business. I just think the suggestion of making this decision after considering all the facts including historically use and value or precious metals; type of collapse and after affects we may see; and your current state of preparation.

Here are some facts from http://dollarcollapse

The US Mint sells about the same dollar amount of gold and silver coins, which means it sells 50 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. UrbanMan’s notes: Today’s current prices were (approx): Gold/ounce $ 1,715.00 Silver/ounce $ 33.00 This is a near 52 to 1 ratio.

Ten times more silver than gold is produced each year, and the ratio in the earth’s crust is 15:1, so how can the price be 50:1? Expect a return to the historical norm of 15:1, which implies that silver will outperform gold.

The paper silver markets trade a billion ounces a day and the world only produces 900 million in a year. The amount available for settlement of these futures contracts is something like 1.5 million ounces, ludicrously little compared to the amount of paper. On the physical side most dealers are only seeing buyers not sellers. There are a lot more people who can afford a one-ounce silver coin than an ounce of gold.

UrbanMan’s notes: Consider this as well -

Today’s (Oct 2011) fuel prices were $3.55 a gallon and Silver is $ 33.00 an ounce. So one ounce of Silver would allow you to buy 9.3 gallons of fuel.

One year ago (Oct 2010) fuel prices were $2.90 a gallon and Silver was $ 23.00 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 7.9 gallons of fuel.

Two years ago (Oct 2009) fuel prices were $2.80 a gallon and Silver was $ 17.25 an ounce. This would allow you to buy 6.2 gallons of fuel.

One more thing: Roger Wiegand of www.TraderTracks.com posted the following alert: "Chances of a major problem in Europe have escalated. Chances of huge precious metals moves in this last quarter of 2011 are very good. I am not talking of $60 in one day but perhaps a huge run from this morning’s gold futures at $1707 all the way to +$2,000. There is no where to go with money if bad things happen in Europe except physical PM and quality related shares. I would not touch any kind of bonds and the only stocks of merit are those juniors holding 2-3 three years of corporate cash with good prospects.

Also the intermediate and larger gold companies should be protected and do well. THIS WEEKEND IN THE USA IS CRITICAL. If SOMETHING GLOBAL BAD HAPPENS. It would probably hit after the markets are closed this Friday. Again, I caution everyone to hold a minimum of one month’s cash, fuel and other provisions. This is not a game. This is very serious and in all likelihood nothing happens. But not make a mistake disregarding this apparent danger."

I hope you are not alleging that I am either scaring people into buying Silver. I have nothing to gain from this. I am simply rendering my opinion. What is right for my Survival Plan is to procure Silver both in bullion and in coins for Silver Melt value. Even then the ratio of my silver procurements is much lower than most of the other Survival Preppers I personally know. I am just trying to cover all the bases. But by and large most of my resources are going into food and other material as well as alternate energy. I have bought several solar power kits when they are on sale – and these are for barter. I have bigger units and small man portable solar power solutions for my groups own use.

EMP Radio Blog

UrbanSurvivalSkills.com received a tip from Anonymous.  " I've found a lot of good blogs and articles that talk about EMP. The best thing that I came across was an EMP radio blog that holds live conversations with people every Wednesday at Noon (Eastern Time.) This Wednesday (tomorrow - 26 October 2011), Lt. General (retired) Thomas McInerney is going to be on their show. It should be really great to listen to- here's the link:"


EMP Radio Blog

Growing Gangs - A Threat to SHTF Survival

I recently had a chance to read the FBI's 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment on Emerging Trends. This does not paint a rosy picture for Americans in general and Survivalists in particular, in the event of our existing enforcement infrastructure being degraded during a collapse.

Every Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) is allied with one or more U.S. based street gangs. The Mexican DTO presence is in every major American city; present in the National Forests with marijuana grows; and, the declining economy presents even a broader scope as a recruiting tool for American's, particularly our disaffected youth.

Organized gangs, organized before any SHTF event, will have an advantage from that existing organization and established networks. This makes it extremely necessary for Survivalists of all types (urban, suburban and rural) to put thought and effort in security, protective postures and building a survival team.

Click on the link above to read the entire report, otherwise the highlights I have posted below:

Executive Summary

Gangs continue to commit criminal activity, recruit new members in urban, suburban, and rural regions across the United States, and develop criminal associations that expand their influence over criminal enterprises, particularly street-level drug sales. The most notable trends for 2011 have been the overall increase in gang membership, and the expansion of criminal street gangs’ control of street-level drug sales and collaboration with rival gangs and other criminal organizations.a

Key Findings

Gangs are expanding, evolving and posing an increasing threat to US communities nationwide. Many gangs are sophisticated criminal networks with members who are violent, distribute wholesale quantities of drugs, and develop and maintain close working relationships with members and associates of transnational criminal/drug trafficking organizations. Gangs are becoming more violent while engaging in less typical and lower-risk crime, such as prostitution and white-collar crime. Gangs are more adaptable, organized, sophisticated, and opportunistic, exploiting new and advanced technology as a means to recruit, communicate discretely, target their rivals, and perpetuate their criminal activity. Based on state, local, and federal law enforcement reporting, the NGIC concludes that:

* There are approximately 1.4 million active street, prison, and OMG gang members comprising more than 33,000 gangs in the United States. Gang membership increased most significantly in the Northeast and Southeast regions, although the West and Great Lakes regions boast the highest number of gang members. Neighborhood-based gangs, hybrid gang members, and national-level gangs such as the Sureños are rapidly expanding in many jurisdictions. Many communities are also experiencing an increase in ethnic-based gangs such as African, Asian, Caribbean, and Eurasian gangs.

* Gangs are responsible for an average of 48 percent of violent crime in most jurisdictions and up to 90 percent in several others, according to NGIC analysis. Major cities and suburban areas experience the most gang-related violence. Local neighborhood-based gangs and drug crews continue to pose the most significant criminal threat in most communities. Aggressive recruitment of juveniles and immigrants, alliances and conflict between gangs, the release of incarcerated gang members from prison, advancements in technology and communication, and Mexican Drug Trafficking Organization (MDTO) involvement in drug distribution have resulted in gang expansion and violence in a number of jurisdictions.

* Gangs are increasingly engaging in non-traditional gang-related crime, such as alien smuggling, human trafficking, and prostitution. Gangs are also engaging in white collar crime such as counterfeiting, identity theft, and mortgage fraud, primarily due to the high profitability and much lower visibility and risk of detection and punishment than drug and weapons trafficking.

* US-based gangs have established strong working relationships with Central American and MDTOs to perpetrate illicit cross-border activity, as well as with some organized crime groups in some regions of the United States. US-based gangs and MDTOs are establishing wide-reaching drug networks; assisting in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and illegal immigrants along the Southwest Border; and serving as enforcers for MDTO interests on the US side of the border.

* Many gang members continue to engage in gang activity while incarcerated. Family members play pivotal roles in assisting or facilitating gang activities and recruitment during a gang members’ incarceration. Gang members in some correctional facilities are adopting radical religious views while incarcerated.

* Gangs encourage members, associates, and relatives to obtain law enforcement, judiciary, or legal employment in order to gather information on rival gangs and law enforcement operations. Gang infiltration of the military continues to pose a significant criminal threat, as members of at least 53 gangs have been identified on both domestic and international military installations. Gang members who learn advanced weaponry and combat techniques in the military are at risk of employing these skills on the street when they return to their communities.

* Gang members are acquiring high-powered, military-style weapons and equipment which poses a significant threat because of the potential to engage in lethal encounters with law enforcement officers and civilians. Typically firearms are acquired through illegal purchases; straw purchases via surrogates or middle-men, and thefts from individuals, vehicles, residences and commercial establishments. Gang members also target military and law enforcement officials, facilities, and vehicles to obtain weapons, ammunition, body armor, police gear, badges, uniforms, and official identification.

* Gangs on Indian Reservations often emulate national-level gangs and adopt names and identifiers from nationally recognized urban gangs. Gang members on some Indian Reservations are associating with gang members in the community to commit crime.

* Gangs are becoming increasingly adaptable and sophisticated, employing new and advanced technology to facilitate criminal activity discreetly, enhance their criminal operations, and connect with other gang members, criminal organizations, and potential recruits nationwide and even worldwide.

Wood Stoves and Preps

Received this from Dan in the Midwest: ”Hey urbanman, been reading your site for a while now and haven’t read anything about wood stoves. I live in the Midwest where the winter temps are usually highs of maybe 30 and lows in the mid teens and we do get snow. Enough snow to make me not like it, except for the moisture it brings to the soil for the farmers, which I am not one. I put in a wood stove with a low electric blower. During a power outage, I’ll be able to charge up my solar
recharged automotive batteries then power the small electric blower on the wood stove to eat the family room which the stove is place in. This past winter, we turned the heat off in them morning, did errands and such, then came back in the later afternoon and fired up the stove, used the blower and the main room was toasty in no time. So in a crunch, we plan on using the main room as a common room and the bedrooms with big sleeping bags for sleeping. right now, I have about 6 cords of wood on hand, and have access to wooded areas to cut more if needed. There is a storage lot about 1 and ½ miles away from my house which contains, among
many other things, stacks and stacks of wooden pallets. I intend of procuring this supply of wood if it becomes necessary.

I have my wife and two kids to think about. My brother and his wife and kids, plus my wife’s brother and his wife would be coming to stay with us in any scenario where we feel unsafe. I have about 10 Wise survival food buckets. They come in 56 packet buckets for meals. Plus I have 60 lbs of rice right now and just over 100 pounds of pinto beans stored in mylar bags inside of buckets. I think I am okay. My brother and brother in law would be bringing down all the stored food they have as well."

UrbanMan's comments: Dan, The food you have stored would not last very long for 10 people. Think about what would be necessary to feed ten people each day, then see how many days your food would last. I am not trying to diminish you efforts as you are much further along than most Americans. I have written about the categories of food I have stored from canned and dried pantry goods for immediate food, to military MRE's and commercial dehydrated foods, to bulk foods like rice/beans/pasta as well as sealed units of sugar, salt, peanut butter, nuts, honey, bullion and spices, all of which are things you can procure on a small or larger basis to further you ability to survive a food crisis. Any collapse, not matter what the cause, will interdict our food supply and lead to massive riots and chaos. I would also continue stocking more foods along he line you already have, and hope you have a year round water source.

Also consider stocking non-hybrid seeds. I have a pretty big supply of non-hybrid seeds. I plant a decent sized garden each year using store bought hybrid seeds. I will also buy additional hybrid seeds of whatever brand and type seems to do well. These are for an immediate needs and also for barter......plus they tend to be much cheaper.

I think wood stoves are probably necessary for all survival locations as they can be used for cooking and for heating. Depending upon your location you will need to take steps to migrate the threats of using a wood stove. The wood smoke smell and the visible smoke trail could attract unwanted people to your location.

Good for you for having the situational awareness to determine other local sources of needed items such as the wood pallets nearby. Your ingenuity on the solar power solution to your blower is a good idea. I do not have blowers on my wood stoves but will not consider it because of your idea.

You do not mention means of protection such as firearms. It's going to be hard enough for 10 people to accomplish all the daily survival tasks without a robust means of protection.

Lastly, I hope you in a location outside of potential or probably refugees or rioting and are considering building a bigger team. Not necessarily to absorb into your survival household, but to make your community safer....and some type of communications capability can make a different in identifying and reporting threats and garnering support within your local community be it a suburban street, gated community or small town.

be safe and prepare well

Weapons Maintenance the Interesting Way

Those of us who ever served in the military have had it drummed into us about weapons maintenance. Woe behold the young serviceman who did not take this seriously. Maintenance, cleaning supplies including solvents and lubricating oils, and, spare parts are going to huge in a collapse scenario where SHTF factors make it unlikely that these items will be commonly available.

As I age, I reflect on training methodology and wonder if there wasn't a better way to instill the need for very tight weapons maintenance and the process to train young men how to take care of their weapons. Well, lo and behold I receive an e-mail with a weapons cleaning video that I thought would keep young men's attention on the task at hand.



For any of you who get upset at the video, please chill out. I meant nothing by it except a break from the serious. Even if the young lady's Glock cleaning techniques could be improved, she did get the lube points right.

Reader Comment of Societal Breakdown following a Collapse

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Survival Prep Questions - Switchblade Knifes and Raising Animals for Food

I thought I would use this spot to answer two questions that have been in my que for a couple weeks.

Larry, from New Orleans e-mailed me this question: ”Urbanman, I bought a Infidel switchblade made by Benchmade from a buddy of mine. This is one of the coolest knifes on the market and just wanted your opinion on it.”

UrbanMan replies: Larry, I have handled a Benchmade Infidel and did not like it for a survivalist knife. Maybe a pimp knife. I would not own any switchblade knife for many reasons…..1 – they are illegal in most locales and the Benchmade Infidel IS a restricted item – hope you bought it legally and hope you can get rid of it as legally; 2 – they are inherently weak because they use a spring with can weaken with age (and use or non-use); and 3 – they are also weak because the blade has to move to open hence not having the integral strength like a full tang knife or even liner lock type folders.  I suppose you bought it for last ditch, close personal defense – if so, consider that the blade design can/will snap or bend at the handle/blade connection if stabbing someone or something, or trying to leverage a cut on a tree limb. I think you would be much better off instead of spending the several hundred dollars that you undoubtedly spent on this type of knife, by buying several well made folders and/or small fixed blades, AND, sharpening equipment.

Anonymous e-mailed me this question: You talk about storing food and growing gardens but I have not seen any information on raising animals for a food supply. My husband and I raise rabbits. We sell them to local kids for fairs and FFA projects and other events, but we primarily raise them so when the crunch hits we’ll have a source of meat and barter. Rabbits are very high in protein and low in fats so they really are a good food source once you get over the harvesting your pet thing.”

UrbanMan replies: Rabbits. I have ate plenty of them over the years. Not necessary some I would order in a restaurant but that’s not the point, is it? Rabbit meat is a good source of protein but is not very high in carbs nor does it have all the essential amino acids like beef. None the less, roasted rabbit would sound (and smell) very good if you were hungry.

I have not talked much about raising animals such as rabbits, chickens, goats, sheep or even cattle because it is not something an urban or even suburban dweller would do. However, now that I think about it a couple rabbits, maybe 2-3 females and a male (buck) rabbit kept apart then used to breed when the coming economy and therefore food collapse happens would be a good idea. Not all urban survival preppers will want to do this. One thing they can do is locate retail or private supplies of animals and be prepared to immediately buy animals when the indicators for SHTF are aligned. The raising of rabbits or any other animals would require some facilities such as cages and stored feed. If you Survival Plan includes a Bug Out Plan (as it should!) then preparations for transport of these animals would be necessary.

There is a gent about ¼ mile from me who raises pygmy type goats. I have struck up several conversations with him (building rapport and winning the hearts and minds) and even took him a couple squash that I grew. He knows me as someone on the fence about make a decision to raise goats or not. I have some t-posts and hard wire fencing stored in my garage and my plan is to buy a couple goats to breed for meat if I can time it right based on the collapse indicators. I can always try and buy or barter for some later as well.

If your plan to raise rabbits works for you, then great. However, don’t let this food source be your only one. Good luck.

Backyard Homestead

If you are not on Organic Gardening e-mail list, then you should think about getting on it. This site occasionally offers good deals on home gardening products and information.

Organic Gardening

The last Organic Gardening flyer, advertising the Backyard Homestead book, stated that even if you live in an apartment, you can start growing at least some of the food you eat and reap with every harvest — saving money ... boosting health ... savoring irresistibly fresh flavors ... conserving energy ... and have loads of fun. And I think also learning a thing or two and be much better prepared for a Collapse where these skills will come in handy.

Not only a source for growing the vegetables and fruits, Organic Gardening's Backyard Homestead also covers keep bees, raise chickens, goats, or even cows. As well as how to cook, preserve, cure, brew, or pickle the fruits you grow.

Some of the subject material in this new book, also include: 13 container-loving plants; Best ways to water for sweeter strawberries; Why you should never soak bean seeds before planting; How to tell if a tomato plant is hungry; Why your fruit tree needs a mate and what to do without one; Complete herb-growing guide from basil to watercress; How to tell if an egg is fresh; and, Beekeeping the easy way.

Another key element of gardening is crop rotation and learning how to properly do so is a great way to get more variety and bounty out of even the smallest gardens, while keeping in more soil nutrients. But successful rotation means planting the right crops in the right order — and making sure you don't follow certain plants with their "arch enemies." Backyard Homestead covers fail-proof planting plan for crop rotations.

Free Trial issue of Organic Gardening and a Garden Planner, click here.

Home gardening in preparation for a SHTF scenario has taken on a new importance with the degradation of the U.S. farming capability. The U.S. used to feed the world. Now we would have a hard time, absent of an exports ban, to feed ourselves. Part of the problem is the high start up and maintenance costs of commercial farming. Read this post from the Greenhorns Blog.

Greenhorns Blog/high costs of farming/

Orgaznied and Pro-Active - A Survival Team

UrbanSurvivalSkills received a comment from Chris, regarding the post about our accountant being a surprise prepper,... ......."With indicators becoming so clear and prepping going "mainstream", Is there anyone starting a movement that doesn't involve Egypt-style riots? As preppers, we know how to farm, and most are handy with a hammer... I just think we'd all have a better chance together, organized and pro-active."

UrbanMan's comments:

I recently talked to a retired banker, who had converted much of his wealth to previous metals, mainly, silver, then converted most of his silver to gold to reduce the weight to wealth ratio. This gentleman did not know about me nor my survivalist preparations. I could sense his reluctance to talk me about possible scenarios that would make survival preparations necessary. The conversation started about how Greece may default on or about 10 October and what repercussions this would have not only on the European Union but for the United States as well. Then it melded into peak oil, then the problems with the U.S. capability to grow and feed ourselves and the phenomenon with the giant increase in family gardening. Only when I started to describe my thoughts and preparations did this gentleman open up and tell me about his wealth - precious metals conversion, and his procurement of six AKM's and 9mm handguns for his family and his current focus on stockpiling food for what he see's as a huge catalyst for SHTF and one that is most probably.

Interestingly that this guy, without any military or law enforcement time, instinctively chose to standardize firearms.

Anyway, this gentleman lives with his wife in a city and is actively looking to move to a small town with agrarian links, size anywhere from a few hundred people up to a few thousand population. He is scared about the big population centers and the high density of starving, desperate people that would come from a food crisis with or without a collapse of the monetary system.

I did not let on about this blog site, but I did talk to him about building a survival team with alike minded and alike prepared individuals or families. So when I read Chris' comment about "we'll all have a better chance together, organized and being pro-active", he is right on the money. Without a survival team large enough accomplish all of the necessary survival tasks in a worst collapse scenarios, we'll be scrambling.

Some of the Survival tasks a group or team may have to consider would be:

~ Provide Security for the Group, 24/7

~ Provide for a rest/sleep cycle for team members

~ Growing food, processing food and cooking - which may involve some travel away from the Team location of safe zone

~ Travel to meeting with other groups - which may require any additional manpower for security or to transport material

~ Procurement patrols - which may include travel to barter with other groups

~ The Survival team may establish a command post type of duty to monitor radio frequencies for dedicated net control or to collect information on other radio traffic

I would think that a minimum Survival Group, for sustained operations, would be around 8 people, all who had compatible skills and who could be relied upon to accomplish any of the Survival Group aforementioned tasks. This minimum number could be larger if the threat situation warranted it, or if the environment (terrain and weather, urban, suburban or rural areas) dictated it as well.

Restraints - You May Need Them

J.M. left a comment on regarding handcuffs, which to me are a much better restraint method than flex cuffs, duct tape, rope or anything else.  Anyway J.M. says “These seem to be quite strong, but the ones I got were slightly bent right out of the package, and one cuff didn't close too smoothly. Seems like poor quality control. Worse, I think ASP missed the whole point of hinged/rigid cuffs - with the wide availability of universal cuff keys, having the keyholes faced away from the hands is a great aid to security, but with these, the double-sided keyways allow anyone who's concealed a key to remove them. The removable locking mechanism might allow modification.”

UrbanMan replies: We have been using cuffs and other restraint devices for several decades now so we have an opinion on what works and what doesn’t.  No cuffs are pick proof.  But you will get what you pay for. 

The ASP cuffs are too easy to pick or shim.  As well as can be pried apart.  They are in fact, part plastic and do have handcuff key holes on both sides.        

The Schrade cuffs are terrible.  Bad finish and fit.  Another brand I don't recommend are Hiatts.  However, I have some (older) Peerless cuffs and they are serviceable.  

The Smith and Wesson Cuff are quality cuffs but they too can be picked or shimmed.

Flex cuffs are designed for one time use.  I would not re-use them as it makes the teeth catch weak.  Besides, flex cuffs are inherantly weak, all it takes is for the restrained person to notch the plastic just a little bit and the flex cuffs (or field expedient) wire tires can be leveraged and broken. 

Duct tape?  You gotta be kidding me.  A person can get out of duct tape in seconds, unless you use a whole roll of tape to restrain them.  
 
The idea when you detain people, such as people you find on your property after SHTF, is to have the ability to restrain them, and again handcuffs are best,...... AND have a armed guard at a appropriate safe distance.   You may have to hood or blindfold these temporary prisoners if they will see too much of your lay out, defensive positions and measures, supplies, personnel strength, etc., where you detain them. 

I have read forums where Survival Preppers are declaring they will be shooting trespassers or worse yet, any shoot simple stragglers who approach their Base Camp, be it a urban home or a remote farm.  Killing people ain't as easy as some arm chair operators think  Outright murder has got to much harder not to mention immoral.  Everybody has it in them to kill, especially when their family or their own life is threatened, however murdering people outright to keep from having to feed them and sending them on their way, just ain't right.  

My Survival team has talked about this and to be sure we have some people in the group more hard line than others, but murdering people ain't even on the table for us.  Hence the need to restrain people until you can turn them over to authorities, or in the absence of authorities you can figure out what conditions you will use to let them go.        

Handcuffs L to R: Smith and Wesson Model M300 Hinged – Recommended; Schrade Professional – NOT Recommended; Smith and Wesson Model 1 Chain – Recommended; and, ASP Model 250 Hinged – NOT Recommended. Not shown, but recommended – Smith and Wesson Model 100 – chain which are smaller than the S&W Model 1 but have a double lock mechanism.

Survival Kits and Contingency Planning

Did you read about the 64 year old man who was hiking in the Utah desert, broke his leg and survived four days until Search and Rescue found him? This was the same area where another hiker wedged his hand in a crevice and had to cut off his hand to escape? This was made famous in the movie "127 hours".

Amos Wayne Richards of North Carolina, was hiking in the same area where Aron Ralston of "127 hours" fame had his self amputee event, when he fell and dislocated his shoulder and broke his leg. All he had on him was two water bottles, two protien bars, a cell phone (out of service area), a camera and a GPS. Mr Richards crawled about 5 miles until (four days later) he signaled a search helicopter
using the flash on his camera.

Mr Richards was lucky. Temperatures in the region were in the 80s F in the day to upper teens at night - more than a sufficient temperature difference and drop to make hypothermia a real threat.

In any event the two points I'd make about this latest hiker getting hurt are the absence of an on the body survival kit and the absence of a contingency plan.

Survival Kit

Just how much room or weight does it take for a person to carry an adequate amount of survival gear or equipment on any foray into othe wilderness? A hydration pack, with fire making items - yeah magnesium strikers are good but it doesn't take up much room or weight to add a cheap butane lighter (or two) and some fire starting material...even a mini-can of sterno. A poly pro or thermal top, a watch cap, gloves, ground cloth and/or thermal blanket are all light weight enough to carry.

Chemical lights, flashlight and even a mini-strobe would be necessary additions.

A small water filter straw and/or water purification tabs plus some more food items such as nuts and jerky would have been really useful as well.

Contingency Plan

We all know contingency plan are useful when things don't do as planned. We do this instinctive in some cases, such as when we drop our kids off at the mall and tell them "I'll meet you here at 5:00pm. Call me if you're are running late. I'll call you if I am running late. If I'm not here by 5:30pm, then head over to the Denny's restaurant and I'll pick you up over there."

There are some essential elements for a contingency plan. These essential elements are:

~ Intended Route - a map with crayons marks on it would do! Otherwise a written description and a sketch would certainly help understand the intended route.
~ Intended Timeline - where you plan on being when.
~ Emergency Actions - what you plan on doing if something goes wrong. Can included safe areas or holeups and emergency rally points or pickup points
~ Communications plan and contact schedule. This would also include any code words - avoid using real names over an unsecure line, as well as any visual signaling measures.
~ What to do if you don't show up.

If Mr Richards would have simply left a contingency plan with a friend and told that friend that if he didn't call by a certain time to call the Canyonlands National Park and inform them of Mr Richards' plan.

If we're involved in a total SHTF scenario where we are running patrols out of a safe site, then developing and issuing contingency plans for patrols of other movements outside of observation and/or supportable distance from the base camp needs to become second nature.

Recession and Revolution

A reader of UrbanSurvivalSkills.com sent us this article written by well known author Seth Godin, whose book Tribes is a good read for the average urban or suburban survival prepper to provide some concepts and ideas about leading, connecting and creating movements, such as building a survival network or team in case of SHTF.

Anyway, Seth Godin's article below, is entitled "The Forever Recession (and the Coming Revolution)" is a good read for all Survivalists.

By Seth Godin

There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There's plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of "good factory jobs" and systemic unemployment--I fear that this recession is here forever.

Why do we believe that jobs where we are paid really good money to do work that can be systemized, written in a manual and/or exported are going to come back ever? The internet has squeezed inefficiencies out of many systems, and the ability to move work around, coordinate activity and digitize data all combine to eliminate a wide swath of the jobs the industrial age created.

There's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win...

Factories were at the center of the industrial age. Buildings where workers came together to efficiently craft cars, pottery, insurance policies and organ transplants--these are job-centric activities, places where local inefficiencies are trumped by the gains from mass production and interchangeable parts. If local labor costs the industrialist more, he has to pay it, because what choice does he have?

No longer. If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that's what's going to happen.

It was the inefficiency caused by geography that permitted local workers to earn a better wage, and it was the inefficiency of imperfect communication that allowed companies to charge higher prices.

The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.

This represents a significant discontinuity, a life-changing disappointment for hard-working people who are hoping for stability but are unlikely to get it. It's a recession, the recession of a hundred years of the growth of the industrial complex.

I'm not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn't look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.

Stressful? Of course it is. No one is trained in how to do this, in how to initiate, to visualize, to solve interesting problems and then deliver. Some see the new work as a hodgepodge of little projects, a pale imitation of a 'real' job. Others realize that this is a platform for a kind of art, a far more level playing field in which owning a factory isn't a birthright for a tiny minority but something that hundreds of millions of people have the chance to do.

Gears are going to be shifted regardless. In one direction is lowered expectations and plenty of burger flipping. In the other is a race to the top, in which individuals who are awaiting instructions begin to give them instead.

The future feels a lot more like marketing--it's impromptu, it's based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people--and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.

This means we may need to change our expectations, change our training and change how we engage with the future. Still, it's better than fighting for a status quo that is no longer. The good news is clear: every forever recession is followed by a lifetime of growth from the next thing...

Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.

This revolution is at least as big as the last one, and the last one changed everything.

Geo-Magnetic Storm Warning

Early Autumn Geomagnetic Storm reported by the NOAA......

A Geomagnetic Storm, now at the G2 (Moderate) level and now forecast to reach the G3 (Strong) level began following a shock arrival today (Sept 26) at 1237Z (8:37am, Eastern). This storm is a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on Saturday morning.

Customers who may be affected, power grid operators, satellite operators, commercial airlines, etc., have been notified and are taking appropriate actions to minimize any adverse impacts.

This is still early in the storm, waiting for the predicted higher levels of activity to occur and no impacts have yet been reported to SWPC – these will be contained in a For The Record that will follow this event at its completion.

This can consider this a near miss because we’re only seeing the flanks of the CME. If this one had been headed directly at the Earth, then severe (G4) to extreme (G5) storming would have been likely.

Also, the storm duration will be limited to about 12 hours, rather than the 24-36 hours that a direct hit could cause.

The active region responsible for the CME is moving into a more geo-effective position and will remain capable of sending more activity our way for several days. In the past 24 hours, a slight decrease in the frequency of activity has been noted, but the region remains capable of emitting strong storms.

The most likely locations for aurora from this storm are Europe and Asia , but activity could persist long enough for North American viewers. The maps below show likely visibility of aurora keyed to Green (G1), Yellow (G3), and Red (G5).

My Accountant - A Suprise Prepper

I received a letter through the mail from my accountant.   I typically get these in December,...kind of a reminder for the upcoming tax season.  This time along with the usual magnetic calendar with the accountant's contact information, I received a personal note......and remember this is from a white collar guy who lives in the city and commutes about 2 miles back and forth to work each; is a workaholic; and golfs once in a while - the classic "head in the sand" American:

"Deared valued Client (here he crossed through "client" and wrote my first name).  Just wanted to drop you a line with the annual calendar.  Yep, still in the same building, same floor, same office.  Look forward to see you before taxes are due!  Another reason I wanted to drop you a note is that I am sure you are seeing the same things I am seeing in the economy:  higher prices; lower return on investments; and, federal deficit and debt out of control.   All of these things together and other factors spell bad economic times in the short to not to distant future.   I am advocating that the thinking man prepare for bad times ahead.  Think closely about where you put your investments.  Think about stocking some food and water, maybe two months worth I would suggest.  Think about where you can go and what you can take with you in the event of a calamity.  I am not trying to scare anyone.   But it pays to be prepared, like I was taught in my Boy Scout days."

UrbanMan comments: Wow!  Preparation for bad times and outright Survival Preparation for the Coming Collapse are certainly going mainstream.   Since my accountant opened the door, I will approach him on a conservative basis about better prepping.  He did not seem the type to own a bunch of guns nor have outdoor skills.  I think I'll drop off a copy of "One Second After" or "Patriots" for him to read.              

I guess he is reading the same indicators the rest of us are:  46.2 million in poverty and nobody, the government or private economists, expect it to get better than time soon; With the government running out of money, therefore less money to spend on entitlement programs, this number will be bigger,.....much bigger; etc., etc.

Now with New York Mayor Bloomberg stating with college graduates having no job prospects and with Congress in stalemate the U.S. can easily experience the same types of riots that Egypt, Tunisia, England, and other countries saw, you can start to see how preparedness may be going much more mainstream.

I wonder just how many other people my accountant gave this advice to?  Maybe it'll drive business away from him, or maybe if the collapse hits, he'll have people knocking on his door for help.

It is in our best interests to have more people prepared for hard times as opposed to adding to the legion that will not prepare.   I am constantly balancing OPSEC and dripping survival preparation ideas and tips.  I recently enabled one of our Administrative people, a older single woman, to start growing vegetables.  She can't wait until next April when she can plant again, this time a much bigger garden according to her.   She even said something to the effect "that she'll have food when the grocery stores run out."  

Viva la Food Bars

I received a comment from Anonymous regarding the post 'SHTF While at Work - Get Home Bag':...
...."Most of my friends, prepers I know and yourself seem to carry MRE's or even Power Bars in
their kits or cars. I carry ER-Bars. They're made by Vita-Lifeindustries.com. (I have all I need for a
while, which is the only reason I'm sharing my secret). 

-They are the US Coast Guard standard approved ration.

-100% of every vitamin and mineral you need, zero cholesterol or Transfat

-The 27oz package has (9) Nine, 400 calorie meals. Enough for 3, maybe 5 days if you stretch it.

-One 27oz package is much smaller and lighter then one MRE, with no mixing or cooking needed.
(They also come in a 2-day - 4"x6"x1" size)

-The Lemon cookie flavored bars are moisture neutral. Doesn't contain water, but won't make you feel
thirsty either.

-They are vacuum-sealed in a thick Aluminum package and have a 5-year shelf life.

-And they are CHEAP! Less then 4 bucks each for the large size. That’s Top Ramen cheap!  I have two bars in my Bug Out Bag, 2 in my Car-B.O.B, one in each Molle vest, and a stack in the cabinet for re-supply…..Viva la Revolucion, Putos!"

UrbanMan replies:  I also have Main Stay bars.  I have several hundred dollars worth and I do include one three day bar in each Bug Out Bag I have.  You could stretch them up to nine days if necessary.  They are actually pretty good tasting especially if you put alittle peanut butter or better yet, honey on the bar. They also have a shelf life of 10+ years.  Honey is a great item to add as well.  Never goes bad and it is crystalizes, you can heat it up.     All of my food drums have several plastic, and some glass, jars of honey.  

But what botheed me about your comment was the " Viva la Revolucion, Putos!" comment at the end. 
What revolution are you talking about?  And who are you calling whores?  Hope you are not one those reconquistas or from some other radical fringe group. 

I think that the only good thing about a collapse will be that the loser radical groups and individuals will be exposed, leading to their removal.   Sort of like a well needed house cleaning. 

Oh, thanks for the tip on the ER Bars.

Get Home Bag

VikingRS left us a comment on the post "Survival Lessons Learned from West Coast Power Outage….."The extra bag you talked about at the end of the article is what my friends and me call a GHB; Get Home Bag. I am in the process of getting my BoB together, but I wanted to be sure I had a GHB ready. It has some food (I always carry a metal water bottle), emergency blanket, two knives, fire starter, bug spray, rain poncho, mini first aid kit, pain killers, sunblock, radio, sharpie markers (to leave messages), cheap flashlight, 2 glow sticks, etc. And a book too. All of that fits into a small pack that I got at Walmart in the hunting section that goes around my waist and has shoulder straps.  Also in the trunk of my car I keep a pair of pants, a shirt, 2 pairs of socks, my combat boots, my duster (coat) and a hat.  I have these things so that in the event I am not near home I have supplies ready. Even if the car is unavailable, I have the stuff I would need to make the trek home, or at least start out if that wasn't an option. If the Wife and I take her car somewhere, I throw that stuff in her trunk.  Maybe you could do an article about the usefulness and IMO, importance of a GHB.”

 

UrbanMan’s comments:  VikingRS, good comments about Bug Out Bags and Get Home Bags.  I did not have Sharpies in any of my kit.  I had small waterproof notebooks and pens, but never even thought about Sharpies until your suggestion.  Thanks! 

 

In my mind, the Bug Out Bag and Get Home Bag are essentially the same thing, however the package or bag the items are carried in, and what items are carried could be influenced by different factors.  I actually have two bags in my vehicle I take to work.  I have one of those vacuum packed storage bags in my trunk with a pair of older running shoes, extra 5.11 pants and an old Khaki hunting shirt, extra socks, a ball cap, a watch cap and a pair of lightweight gloves.  I also have a small Eagle Industries hydration bag I keep in the back seat which I refer to as “the Bug Out Bag I Keep In My Vehicle”.   The 100 ounce hydration pack stays full and if I had to Bug Out from work I would augment water with water bottles from one of several refrigerators at work.  

 

I also have a leatherman tool (or is it a Gerber?); a fairly cheap Spyderco folding tactical knife; butane lighter, and fire starting material; a lightweight green gortex jacket; a cut down MRE meal; a metal canteen cup; one small packet of bullion cubes and a couple instant coffee packets; a small first aid kit with a couple travel packets of aspirin; a “AA” flashlight and pack of extra batteries; a small red lens photon key chain type light; and some other small items.

 

I always carry a handgun (Glock 19 and one extra magazine) and if the threat indicators grew I would add a rifle to my vehicle as well. 

 

Some of the factors that could influence what you carry in a Get Home Bag, in my mind, would be:         

 

Terrain.  The terrain you have to negotiate or transit to get to a safe site.  If you had to transit a lot of concrete and asphalt, this would influence a different type of footgear, than if you were traversing forested areas or other rural type terrain.  If you had to cross a river and planned to a bridge, what are you doing to do if the bridge is down, or access is blocked or if it is occupied by what appeared to be a criminal group?  Maybe a small inflatable floatation device and waterproof bag cover would come in handy for an expedient river crossing.       

 

Weather.  Unless you live or work in paradise, you probably have diverse seasonal weather conditions which would make ir important to pack and re-pack your Get Home Bag so that the contents are necessary for the weather conditions you’ll face.  The summer months may make it necessary to carry more water.  The winter months may it necessary to carry warmer clothing items.   

 

Threat.  What are the active and passive threats you could be facing on your movement to the identified safe area or your home.  Passive threats could be radioactive fallout or contagious disease.  Active threats could be roaming gangs, violent crowds, law enforcement or military activity such as patrols and checkpoints if there was movement or curfew restrictions.   

 

Distance.  The amount of distance you have to travel will certainly affect what you carry.  If you have to traverse 20 miles, it may take you two days of fairly careful movement to complete.  

SHTF While at Work - Get Home Bag

VikingRS left us a comment on the post "Survival Lessons Learned from West Coast Power Outage"....."The extra bag you talked about at the end of the article is what my friends and me call a GHB; Get Home Bag. I am in the process of getting my BoB together, but I wanted to be sure I had a GHB ready. It has some food (I always carry a metal water bottle), emergency blanket, two knives, fire starter, bug spray, rain poncho, mini first aid kit, pain killers, sunblock, radio, sharpie markers (to leave messages), cheap flashlight, 2 glow sticks, etc. And a book too. All of that fits into a small pack that I got at Walmart in the hunting section that goes around my waist and has shoulder straps. Also in the trunk of my car I keep a pair of pants, a shirt, 2 pairs of socks, my combat boots, my duster (coat) and a hat. I have these things so that in the event I am not near home I have supplies ready. Even if the car is unavailable, I have the stuff I would need to make the trek home, or at least start out if that wasn't an option. If the Wife and I take her car somewhere, I throw that stuff in her trunk. Maybe you could do an article about the usefulness and IMO, importance of a GHB.”

UrbanMan’s comments: VikingRS, good comments about Bug Out Bags and Get Home Bags. I did not have Sharpies in any of my kit. I had small waterproof notebooks and pens, but never even thought about Sharpies until your suggestion. Thanks!

In my mind, the Bug Out Bag and Get Home Bag are essentially the same thing, however the package, or bag, the items are carried in, and what items are carried could be influenced by different factors. I actually have two bags in my vehicle I take to work. I have one of those vacuum packed storage bags in my trunk with a pair of older running shoes, extra 5.11 pants and an old Khaki hunting shirt, extra socks, a ball cap, a watch cap and a pair of lightweight gloves. I also have a small Eagle Industries hydration bag I keep in the back seat which I refer to as “the Bug Out Bag I Keep In My Vehicle”. The 100 ounce hydration pack stays full and if I had to Bug Out from work I would augment water with water bottles from one of several refrigerators at work.

I also have a leatherman tool (or is it a Gerber?); a fairly cheap Spyderco folding tactical knife; butane lighter, and fire starting material; a lightweight green gortex jacket; a cut down MRE meal; a three day Main Stay Food Bar; a metal canteen cup; one small packet of bullion cubes and a couple instant coffee packets; a small first aid kit with a couple travel packets of aspirin; a “AA” flashlight and pack of extra batteries; a small red lens photon key chain type light; a small FRS radio; and some other small items.

The FRS radio is for use on scheduled voice communications contact times. I also carry a cell phone (doesn't everyone?). In fact I have two. Again, I have scheduled voice contact times in case of an emergency, and the cell phones allow me to send text and e-mails. Both are GPS enabled so if the internet is up, my survival group has a good chance of getting a geo-location fix on anyone in our group trying to make it to safety (we call it Home Plate). During a voice contact, I can send my position relative to "Home Plate",..example: "I am approximately 7 miles West by Northwest from Home Plate." This ads a measure of security to an otherwise open net.

I always carry a handgun (Glock 19 and one extra magazine) and if the threat indicators grew I would add a rifle to my vehicle as well.

Some of the factors that could influence what you carry in a Get Home Bag, in my mind, would be:

Terrain. The terrain you have to negotiate or transit to get to a safe site. If you had to transit a lot of concrete and asphalt, this would influence a different type of foot gear, than if you were traversing forested areas or other rural type terrain. If you had to cross a river and planned to a bridge, what are you doing to do if the bridge is down, or access is blocked or if it is occupied by what appeared to be a criminal group? Maybe a small inflatable floatation device and waterproof bag cover would come in handy for an expedient river crossing.

If you were traversing a great distance through an populated area, you may not want a military looking bag or personal appearance. I would suggest dull, pastel colored backpacks, hydration packs or other bags.

Weather. Unless you live or work in paradise, you probably have diverse seasonal weather conditions which would make it important to pack and re-pack your Get Home Bag so that the contents are necessary for the weather conditions you’ll face. The summer months may make it necessary to carry more water. The winter months may make it necessary to carry warmer clothing items.

Threat. What are the active and passive threats you could be facing on your movement to the identified safe area or your home. Passive threats could be radioactive fallout or contagious disease. Active threats could be roaming gangs, violent crowds, law enforcement or military activity such as patrols and checkpoints if there was movement or curfew restrictions.

Distance. The amount of distance you have to travel will certainly affect what you carry. If you have to traverse 20 miles, it may take you two days of fairly careful movement to complete. If you are one of those people who transit a great distance every day, and in my mind that would be 35-40 mile or more, then I would prepare for several days of travel in case some threat, environmental or terrain factors causes you to hole up or take a long detour from your intended route.

prepare well, Cheers, UrbanMan

Remarks on FEMA Camps

Anonymous left a new comment on the older post entitled "USA FEMA Concentration Camp Controversy - Part I": "Ok, If the government were to imprison all the citizens, the country would crumble because the small businesses and consumer spending is what makes the country run, if you take that away, not only would the country cease to run, all materials the government would need to continue would not be produced, and all of the economics of the country would halt because the government would keep the spending, but the citizens of this country would be spending to somewhat equal it out so we would spiral into a black hole of debt, making us easy prey for others to take us over..."

UrbanMan Replies: I think the point is that the government would use the FEMA camps to imprison Americans,...maybe selected Americans,.....AFTER a collapse, after the businesses crumble, where it would be rationalized that Americans (maybe just some) need to be imprisoned to maintain order,...or perhaps in order to control disease and feed starving masses.

I am not a rabid anti-government conspiracy theorist, but I recognize the this may be become a possibility if the economy collapses, welfare checks stop coming and food is scare. The resultant chaos, especially in urban population centers may make it necessary for a "law and order - population control type approach" to handling masses or,...well, a large pissed off entitlement population.

I know the government well enough to understand that this is most probably being planned for at some level,....an outline of a plan,...what resources (read troops) would be necessary, and what the political fall out would be. I have been involved at various levels on operational plans,..no, not for population control but for lower level contingencies. This is simple contingency planning that all SHTF preppers should be doing anyway.

Reader Opinions on SHTF Weapons

I received the following responses on the post concerning recommending survival-collapse weapons:

Response #1”Good response Urbanman. I think a lot of preppers out there have a skewed sense of reality. In other words how likely is the worst-case scenario to occur? Living in earthquake and wildfire country we have built our preparations, and planning, around the most likely event scenarios. Mobs of famished, displaced, and desperate people fleeing are on our threat assessment matrix, but farther down the list. We eat what we store for food and every weapon we buy has to have at least two uses.”

Response #2”Just my .02 but any gun in your hand at the time of trouble is far better than having a bunch of money hidden away waiting for a gun sale or to have the right amount of money to buy that M-4 clone. I've got water, shelter, food and guns that won the west with experience of 30 yrs using them. Not an AR or AK anywhere in my supplies. I'm happy with my choices.”

UrbanMan replies: If a prepper was absolutely sure,…had a crystal ball or something, and knew,..really KNEW,....that the collapse was coming and to what extent their safety would be in jeopardy, …well then of course the right thinking individual would ensure he/they had a slew of survival weapons geared toward protection, and a large inventory of ammunition.

As it is, what do we know? We know that the economic indicators foretell bad times to come. Does it also mean a total collapse of authority? Chaos and anarchy reigning across the land? Heavy handed Governmental controls, even military deployments to control the population? Food supplies drying up. Limited or no medical care for chronic or emergency medical issues?

None of us know. We read books, visualize and war game STHF scenarios in our minds; develop planning, preparation and material solutions we think will solve the problem of at least give us an edge. Obviously, the more financial resources we have the more we can invest in procurement.

I am very lucky I have the resources to have bought what I consider enough survival weapons and routinely add to my preparations with mostly food, and some new gear. But even my comfort level has a limit. Where am I gonna stop? Six years of stored food and 10,000 rounds per weapon on hand?

I think the idea is to consider the threats that response #1 said, and develop what preparations across the categories of Shelter, Food, Protection and Water are going to be necessary. Look within each category,....Protection isn’t just guns, it is much more such as clothing, medicines and medical supplies/equipment, procedures and protocols for dealing with all manner of emergencies. Boy, you can make a list a arm long.

Survival Lessons Learned from West Coast Power Outage

In case some of you missed it, there was a power blackout in Southern California and for a time the cause was unknown making people surmise everything from software glitches and hardware failures to terrorist attacks. This affected a reported 6 million people from Los Angeles to San Diego to Yuma, Arizona,....and in a time of the year when some temperatures hit well over 100 degrees.

Good comment received from Secunda, entitled: Notes from the Southern California Blackout of September 8, 2011

The blackout yesterday provided us with a good test of our emergency plans. Some things we did well in, others not so well.

The hand crank radio we purchased for $10 gave us great information. Discovered the power was out all over Southern California, Northern Mexico, and Arizona.

My husband called from Downtown. The Trolley system was down. He caught the bus. He had only one water bottle and his walking shoes at his office.

The highways and roads were choked. Few intersections had working street lights. Most people treated intersections as 'stop sign only' intersections. A 16 mile bus ride took 3 hours.

Cell phone coverage in the area weakened the longer the power outage lasted.

A neighbor asked if the municipal water was safe to drink. Her family had NO emergency water stores. Some water districts were already issuing boil- water orders within just two hours of the outage.

Most grocery stores had to close. The small independent convenient stores who remained opened were swamped with people making last minute or panic purchases of water and ice. Some merchants were over-charging for water and ice. Most gas stations were closed.

The power was off long enough for looting to take place but I have heard of no instances yet where it occurred.

I cooked eggs on the camp griddle over a charcoal grill for supper. We finished all the items in the Frig like the milk that would spoil soonest.

LESSONS LEARNED
Store more water at my husband's work site, along with a extra cell phone battery and an alternate communication method.

Identify more routes out of the city he can take if he is forced to walk or bike out.

Store more water and freeze water in a couple of old milk jugs to keep in the freezer.

Keep the cars no less than half filled with gas.

UrbanMan's comments: Thanks Secunda for the excellent comments and your lessons learned.

Your observation of the cell phone infrastructure becoming weaker or less reliable as the power outage went longer is interesting as cellular networks and the repeaters have sometimes both both solar and fuel generation emergency power designed to last at least 24 hours. It would have been interesting to see if text was more reliable than voice communications. During the Hurricane that hit the East Coast, I lost voice comms with some of team, but our texting and e-mail on portable devices was reliable.

I would add a couple things to your lessons learned:

Look at the possibility of buying higher end radios so that your husband can have another means of communications with you as he makes his way home. The FRS/GMRS radios, e.g..talkabouts probably won't do it,....may have to be something in the VHF or UHF band. You hit on additional routes out of the city....this is PACE planning (Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency),.....for not only routes but for communications as practical everything in our plan.

Always have cash handy for those circumstances were ATM's are out and you need to and can buy additional items. It is a rare day I don't have at least $60 or so in my pocket and I always have a couple silver rounds on me as well.

You also hit on your husband having an additional cell phone battery and water. Does he have a Bug Out Bag? Not necessarily a fully equipped Bug Out equipped for a total SHTF scenario, but maybe if your husband wears business clothes, then a bag containing durable clothing to change to, including some hiking boots and a smaller bag with extra water, some food such as nuts, jerky and granola bars, extra water, maybe a fold up rain coat, multi-tool, butane lighter,....you get my drift.

In any case you sound like you have your act together and are using your biggest and best weapon against a collapse type scenario and that is your brain. Thanks again for your comments. Be safe.

The Likelihood of a Collapse

We received a anonymous comment for the Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 25 post entitled Don't Lose Focus......"I too am turned off by those who want the S to HTF (no offense to you because of your comment). I fear the coming collapse. I don't think our leaders are capable enough to get us through this and in fact I think that some of them are intentionally making the situation worse for
political reasons. A collapse with our current batch of leaders could be a disaster of biblical proportions. Don't wait too long to complete your preps."

UrbanMan replies: The bad side of hosting a website, doubly so on a site that talks about surviving the coming collapse is that people come out of the proverbial woodwork writing e-mails a week concerning conspiracies.

When discussing (arguing?) about the causes of the economic disaster we find ourselves in now, and the intent of our elected political leaders and appointed bureaucrats, it is hard to persuade some people that the current leadership is intent on destroying this country's economy. Hard to persuade, because even the most rational people are scratching their heads in amazement of the Government's
failure to enact a balanced budget; failure to spend less money than they take in from the tax payers; failure to enact any, let alone, meaningful entitlement reform; continuous implementation of regulations, from the EPA' clean air act to the FDA's Food Safety and Modernization Act,.etc., etc., ...all with the result of making it harder for small businesses to remain afloat and for the economy to get better.

So in short, yes it does seem like our "current batch of leader are intentionally making the situation worse for political reasons." This is called riding your ideology to our demise.

However, aside from all the things we can do,..... such as writing our legislators to vote correctly; urging good people to run for office; and, contributing to the campaigns for candidates that are patriots, it really boils down to that the average citizen and therefore the average Survival Prepper has little control on the factors that control the pace or the depth of the coming collapse.

What we do have is some control over is what we do about it. Do we bury our heads in the sand thinking things must get better? Do we move to some remote wilderness location where we can be self sufficient and ride out SHTF? Probably for most people, the answer lays in between somewhere. Do what your conscious tells you
to do in regards to communicating with your elected political leaders abut your concerns, complaints and ideas,....but,......do what your gut tells you to in regards to preparing for hard times. Have food; have some firearms; develop some friends; read and expose yourself to the Survival Preparation movement to leverage everyone else's recommendations and lessons learned; look at all the threats and see how they affect you; and, above all, have a plan. Do not rely on the Government to make it better. As we all know, the Government never does the right thing before they have exhausted every other option.

Bad Advice on Survival Firearms?

I received this e-mail taking me to task for advocating sub-standard weapons for survival……”I have no idea why you would advocate people getting Mosin-Nagants and Double Barreled shotguns for Survival weapons. The threat is going to come from very well armed groups of people with bad intent. A five shot ancient rifle and a two shot shotgun will only give these people a false sense of security. They are going to need weapons just like the military. I have an older HK91, an M1A1 and two brand new Bushmaster model 4 carbines just like the Army M-4. I have several different 9mm pistols. Would never own a double barreled shotgun! Are you kidding me?”.

UrbanMan replies: Hey, I’m all for taking constructive criticism. But,.......

The first rule to a gunfight (or for SHTF protection for that matter) is “to have a gun”. Have you ever been in a gunfight? I know full well the value of good weaponry and the skill to use it. However, refer back to rule #1. Some people cannot afford the latest in civilianized military firearms. If someone has serviceable rifles, shotguns and handguns and has not done anything else to prepare for hard times, then what would you suggest their next preparation priorities be? Trade in their "obsolete" firearms for the latest piston M-4?

I would think the best answer would have to be the steps they are willing to do and have the resources to do as well. Buying and stocking food come to mind. Having stored water and the capability to store more...... Building a Bug Out Bug....Developing a plan.....Maybe having a little bit of Silver or Coins for Silver Melt value.....Having some good clothes and gear. These would all be necessary before upgrading your survival firearms. In my humble opinion.

For example, Jim who often writes a post for this site called "Survival Chronicles of Jim" is a great example of someone who has come from total ignorance of survival preparation to a pretty decent readiness posture, despite his lack of any military or law enforcement experience or even wilderness skills. He realized the necessity of firearms yet he has centered his "survive the collapse" firearms battery around a couple handguns, a Mosin-Nagant rifle, an SKS and a 12 gauge riot shotgun. Purchasing a $1,000 or more rifle was too far out of his comfort zone.

But for the record, I have never, nor would I encourage or recommend a survival prepper starting from scratch to sink money into “antique” firearms. Although, the more important component is the skill at using these weapons. Ask the Russians armed with modern AK-74 assault rifles who went against Mujh armed with bolt action Short Magazine Lee Enfields just how important skill is.

Agricultural Decline and Survival Gardens

The facts on the Agricultural decline: 36 days for most Americans to earn enough disposable money to pay for their year's worth of food; 150 years ago, 50% of the American population lived on farms or ranches, producing not only their own food, but food for this country and for export. In fact, we used to feed a large part of the world.

Today, less than 2% of the American population live on farms or ranches. 98 percent of the population do not produce their own food to any substantial degree. However, we have seen a recent turn to the popularity of home gardening,...in the cities and suburbs people are growing vegetables for many, and sometimes multiple, reasons: To defray the rising costs of food; to give themselves a sense of accomplishment that comes with planting a seed then months later harvesting something to eat; and, to practice farming skills that may be a priority in a major economic collapse or what others call for SHTF.

I think the idea most survival preppers have is to grow food to augment what they have painstakingly stored for the coming collapse. For a small family, harvesting just a couple cucumbers, squash, and corn each week could go along way when combined with rice and beans stored in bulk for emergency purposes.

It should come as no surprise that world wide food production is diminishing (part of what is driving prices up), .....and that the nutritional content of these foods is less and less. Hell, that's a great reason right there to grow your own.

When Peak Oil hits, the availability of food will decrease and the prices will increases (law of supply and demand my friends).

I recently took a bunch of excess squash, cucumbers and pomegranates to work to give to the secretarial staff. They were amazed that I grew it. While none of them know my beliefs and practices pertaining to Survival Preparation, two of these ladies (both middle aged single women) asked how hard was it to grow vegetables? Now, I'm thinking "you got to be kidding me?", then I realize that most people have never grown anything but flowers and weeds. So I spent about five minutes explaining to them how to plant a couple squash plants (success early don't you know) and made a list of what to buy, how to water, and more importantly how to educate themselves by reading.

So if you haven't started your own garden, then what are you waiting for? If you are like me you have limited room,......so what? four or six squash and cucumber plants is better than nothing.

Survival Chronicles of Jim - Chapter 25 Don't Lose Focus

This is Jim here. Long time since I sent Urban Man sometime to post. These last few months had me a funk. I had spent a lot of money and effort getting prepared, and not like I was hoping an event would happen, but I started to lose focus on why I was preparing until it became apparent, again, that the Government may just be driving this country into a financial Armageddon. Then I realized that basically what I am doing is giving myself some insurance.

A chance of survival in a post SHTF world. All my food preparations, firearms procurements, equipment acquisitions, silver bullion buys and even my recon and cache prep of the family cabin were the foundation of why I lost focus because I was actually moderately prepared for many terrible events, again which I hope not to experience, but there was some part of me that wanted it to happen. I had a phone conversation with Urbanman and he said I was an “asshole” for wanting the collapse to occur.

With the stock market on a roller coaster; Gold at $1,877 an ounce (this morning as I write this) representing a 21% increase PER YEAR since 2002; seemingly spontaneous riots in some of the major cities that are associated in some cases with racial tensions, but are really linked to the failing economy. Just too many reasons to be concerned.

From UrbanMan: Jim sent this to me last week. Today's Gold price was at $1,859.

One of my friends, a civil service computer guy with the Army, told me that the Government is downsizing Defense civil service jobs. We wondered what these displaced workers and the tens of thousands of service members separated from the military during the end of the war(s) obligatory downsizing will do to the economic outlook and especially the unemployment rate.

I hope most of you are NOT doing the same thing - starting to lose focus. Arguing with the wife about the $130 you spent this month to buy three silver bullion rounds or the bucket of Wise prepared meals; or, looking at your monetary expenditures on canned or dehydrated food and start to think it's a waste. Because it's not. And if you get to the point where you think you need to slow down on your preps you face the real time danger of quitting altogether, albeit much better off than you are now, but not totally prepared as you can be.

I am now looking for a second vehicle. Something like an 1970’s era Jeep or Pickup so I can buy some spare parts, tires and wheels for it and store it at my family cabin. I’ll be looking soon to emplace (cache) some of the prepared food buckets I bought through Costco.

I just planted some “winter” squash in my backyard. It is AMAZING how fast squash grow when you give it adequate water. I have been harvesting the cucumbers and other squash I planted in late April and being pretty creative in making dinners out of it. My son, visiting from College, even likes it.

I took some of my produce to the house on the corner where a old couple live. Now I’m friends with them and found out the lady has been canning for years and the Husband is an old Korean War Veteran, who owns an M1 Garand. In a week or two I will take him some a couple boxes of .30-06 ammunition. Urbanman also gave me a couple clips to give him. Since I am stuck in this neighborhood until I Bug Out, I thought I would work to build a team, first by building rapport. Urbanman calls it "the heart and minds things".

So after a couple of months of losing focus, I am back at more prepared than ever. I just now know that, in fact, there isn't anything such as being "fully prepared", it really is a continuous process. Don't be like me - I lost two months getting ready.