Recession and Revolution

A reader of UrbanSurvivalSkills.com sent us this article written by well known author Seth Godin, whose book Tribes is a good read for the average urban or suburban survival prepper to provide some concepts and ideas about leading, connecting and creating movements, such as building a survival network or team in case of SHTF.

Anyway, Seth Godin's article below, is entitled "The Forever Recession (and the Coming Revolution)" is a good read for all Survivalists.

By Seth Godin

There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There's plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of "good factory jobs" and systemic unemployment--I fear that this recession is here forever.

Why do we believe that jobs where we are paid really good money to do work that can be systemized, written in a manual and/or exported are going to come back ever? The internet has squeezed inefficiencies out of many systems, and the ability to move work around, coordinate activity and digitize data all combine to eliminate a wide swath of the jobs the industrial age created.

There's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win...

Factories were at the center of the industrial age. Buildings where workers came together to efficiently craft cars, pottery, insurance policies and organ transplants--these are job-centric activities, places where local inefficiencies are trumped by the gains from mass production and interchangeable parts. If local labor costs the industrialist more, he has to pay it, because what choice does he have?

No longer. If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that's what's going to happen.

It was the inefficiency caused by geography that permitted local workers to earn a better wage, and it was the inefficiency of imperfect communication that allowed companies to charge higher prices.

The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.

This represents a significant discontinuity, a life-changing disappointment for hard-working people who are hoping for stability but are unlikely to get it. It's a recession, the recession of a hundred years of the growth of the industrial complex.

I'm not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn't look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.

Stressful? Of course it is. No one is trained in how to do this, in how to initiate, to visualize, to solve interesting problems and then deliver. Some see the new work as a hodgepodge of little projects, a pale imitation of a 'real' job. Others realize that this is a platform for a kind of art, a far more level playing field in which owning a factory isn't a birthright for a tiny minority but something that hundreds of millions of people have the chance to do.

Gears are going to be shifted regardless. In one direction is lowered expectations and plenty of burger flipping. In the other is a race to the top, in which individuals who are awaiting instructions begin to give them instead.

The future feels a lot more like marketing--it's impromptu, it's based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people--and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.

This means we may need to change our expectations, change our training and change how we engage with the future. Still, it's better than fighting for a status quo that is no longer. The good news is clear: every forever recession is followed by a lifetime of growth from the next thing...

Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.

This revolution is at least as big as the last one, and the last one changed everything.

Geo-Magnetic Storm Warning

Early Autumn Geomagnetic Storm reported by the NOAA......

A Geomagnetic Storm, now at the G2 (Moderate) level and now forecast to reach the G3 (Strong) level began following a shock arrival today (Sept 26) at 1237Z (8:37am, Eastern). This storm is a result of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on Saturday morning.

Customers who may be affected, power grid operators, satellite operators, commercial airlines, etc., have been notified and are taking appropriate actions to minimize any adverse impacts.

This is still early in the storm, waiting for the predicted higher levels of activity to occur and no impacts have yet been reported to SWPC – these will be contained in a For The Record that will follow this event at its completion.

This can consider this a near miss because we’re only seeing the flanks of the CME. If this one had been headed directly at the Earth, then severe (G4) to extreme (G5) storming would have been likely.

Also, the storm duration will be limited to about 12 hours, rather than the 24-36 hours that a direct hit could cause.

The active region responsible for the CME is moving into a more geo-effective position and will remain capable of sending more activity our way for several days. In the past 24 hours, a slight decrease in the frequency of activity has been noted, but the region remains capable of emitting strong storms.

The most likely locations for aurora from this storm are Europe and Asia , but activity could persist long enough for North American viewers. The maps below show likely visibility of aurora keyed to Green (G1), Yellow (G3), and Red (G5).

My Accountant - A Suprise Prepper

I received a letter through the mail from my accountant.   I typically get these in December,...kind of a reminder for the upcoming tax season.  This time along with the usual magnetic calendar with the accountant's contact information, I received a personal note......and remember this is from a white collar guy who lives in the city and commutes about 2 miles back and forth to work each; is a workaholic; and golfs once in a while - the classic "head in the sand" American:

"Deared valued Client (here he crossed through "client" and wrote my first name).  Just wanted to drop you a line with the annual calendar.  Yep, still in the same building, same floor, same office.  Look forward to see you before taxes are due!  Another reason I wanted to drop you a note is that I am sure you are seeing the same things I am seeing in the economy:  higher prices; lower return on investments; and, federal deficit and debt out of control.   All of these things together and other factors spell bad economic times in the short to not to distant future.   I am advocating that the thinking man prepare for bad times ahead.  Think closely about where you put your investments.  Think about stocking some food and water, maybe two months worth I would suggest.  Think about where you can go and what you can take with you in the event of a calamity.  I am not trying to scare anyone.   But it pays to be prepared, like I was taught in my Boy Scout days."

UrbanMan comments: Wow!  Preparation for bad times and outright Survival Preparation for the Coming Collapse are certainly going mainstream.   Since my accountant opened the door, I will approach him on a conservative basis about better prepping.  He did not seem the type to own a bunch of guns nor have outdoor skills.  I think I'll drop off a copy of "One Second After" or "Patriots" for him to read.              

I guess he is reading the same indicators the rest of us are:  46.2 million in poverty and nobody, the government or private economists, expect it to get better than time soon; With the government running out of money, therefore less money to spend on entitlement programs, this number will be bigger,.....much bigger; etc., etc.

Now with New York Mayor Bloomberg stating with college graduates having no job prospects and with Congress in stalemate the U.S. can easily experience the same types of riots that Egypt, Tunisia, England, and other countries saw, you can start to see how preparedness may be going much more mainstream.

I wonder just how many other people my accountant gave this advice to?  Maybe it'll drive business away from him, or maybe if the collapse hits, he'll have people knocking on his door for help.

It is in our best interests to have more people prepared for hard times as opposed to adding to the legion that will not prepare.   I am constantly balancing OPSEC and dripping survival preparation ideas and tips.  I recently enabled one of our Administrative people, a older single woman, to start growing vegetables.  She can't wait until next April when she can plant again, this time a much bigger garden according to her.   She even said something to the effect "that she'll have food when the grocery stores run out."  

Viva la Food Bars

I received a comment from Anonymous regarding the post 'SHTF While at Work - Get Home Bag':...
...."Most of my friends, prepers I know and yourself seem to carry MRE's or even Power Bars in
their kits or cars. I carry ER-Bars. They're made by Vita-Lifeindustries.com. (I have all I need for a
while, which is the only reason I'm sharing my secret). 

-They are the US Coast Guard standard approved ration.

-100% of every vitamin and mineral you need, zero cholesterol or Transfat

-The 27oz package has (9) Nine, 400 calorie meals. Enough for 3, maybe 5 days if you stretch it.

-One 27oz package is much smaller and lighter then one MRE, with no mixing or cooking needed.
(They also come in a 2-day - 4"x6"x1" size)

-The Lemon cookie flavored bars are moisture neutral. Doesn't contain water, but won't make you feel
thirsty either.

-They are vacuum-sealed in a thick Aluminum package and have a 5-year shelf life.

-And they are CHEAP! Less then 4 bucks each for the large size. That’s Top Ramen cheap!  I have two bars in my Bug Out Bag, 2 in my Car-B.O.B, one in each Molle vest, and a stack in the cabinet for re-supply…..Viva la Revolucion, Putos!"

UrbanMan replies:  I also have Main Stay bars.  I have several hundred dollars worth and I do include one three day bar in each Bug Out Bag I have.  You could stretch them up to nine days if necessary.  They are actually pretty good tasting especially if you put alittle peanut butter or better yet, honey on the bar. They also have a shelf life of 10+ years.  Honey is a great item to add as well.  Never goes bad and it is crystalizes, you can heat it up.     All of my food drums have several plastic, and some glass, jars of honey.  

But what botheed me about your comment was the " Viva la Revolucion, Putos!" comment at the end. 
What revolution are you talking about?  And who are you calling whores?  Hope you are not one those reconquistas or from some other radical fringe group. 

I think that the only good thing about a collapse will be that the loser radical groups and individuals will be exposed, leading to their removal.   Sort of like a well needed house cleaning. 

Oh, thanks for the tip on the ER Bars.